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finjim
11-22-2005, 07:20 PM
how many times in the last 5 years has a player been labeled a can't miss out of college, only to miss badly in the NFL??

CitizenSnips
11-22-2005, 07:21 PM
to many for numbers. what kind of a request is that.

Finland
11-22-2005, 07:22 PM
how many times in the last 5 years has a player been labeled a can't miss out of college, only to miss badly in the NFL??

Can you look that up for everyone please?

enigmatics
11-22-2005, 07:24 PM
how many times in the last 5 years has a player been labeled a can't miss out of college, only to miss badly in the NFL??

According to what sources? Could you get any broader? :lol:

finfan75
11-22-2005, 07:28 PM
2000 Courtney brown (Bust?)
2001 Mike Vick (we know how he is)
2002 David Carr (bust?)
2003 Carson palmer (He is getting there)
2004 Eli manning (Give him Time)
2005 Alex Smith (No clue how he'll be)

Just looking at the #1's and #2's. There are several busts in the last 20 years. So you better know your stuff.

kastofsna120
11-22-2005, 07:30 PM
there aren't that many "can't miss" guys, but here are some that i know of:

2000- courtney brown, peter warrick
2001- gerard warren
2002- mike williams
2003- charles rogers
2004- sean taylor

i think sean taylor has a great future, but he's looked pretty poor this year

caneaddict
11-22-2005, 07:33 PM
http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/drafts

you can look it up yourself.

finjim
11-22-2005, 07:33 PM
I'm talking about can't-miss-sure-fire-gonna be a stud in the NFL player.

Like Ryan Leaf.

Or that guy out of Iowa State who led the NCAA in rushing.

finjim
11-22-2005, 07:34 PM
on offense

enigmatics
11-22-2005, 07:34 PM
I'm talking about can't-miss-sure-fire-gonna be a stud in the NFL player.

Like Ryan Leaf.

Or that guy out of Iowa State who led the NCAA in rushing.

Should we all look up the can't misses that panned out too?

touborg
11-22-2005, 07:35 PM
2000 Courtney brown (Bust?)
2001 Mike Vick (we know how he is)
2002 David Carr (bust?)
2003 Carson palmer (He is getting there)
2004 Eli manning (Give him Time)
2005 Alex Smith (No clue how he'll be)

Just looking at the #1's and #2's. There are several busts in the last 20 years. So you better know your stuff.

Are you saying Vick, Palmer, Manning and Smith are busts?

finjim
11-22-2005, 07:39 PM
I'm not being clear enough. OK, a can't miss sure fire etc.

Skill position player. Hyped to be an early first rounder.

Now, go!

finjim
11-22-2005, 07:39 PM
Should we all look up the can't misses that panned out too?


too much work to look them up

ether79
11-22-2005, 07:43 PM
too much work to look them up

Ki-Jana Carter, due to injury problems mainly but still a bust
Rashaan Salaam
Andre Ware
David Terrell

and many more if I looked but enough will be mention by others

caneaddict
11-22-2005, 07:45 PM
Wow!!!

http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/drafts

I just followed my own advice and went back through the 1st round of drafts in the link above. I don't know who you consider a sure fire pick, but I think draft position is generally a good indicator of expectations.

It's mind blowing how hit or miss the 1st round actually is. Every year I see the rookies that don't pan out, but to go back and look at the drafts and see how many guys don't live up to their draft pick is really sobering.

caneaddict
11-22-2005, 07:46 PM
Andre Wadsworth was supposed to be the greatest DE to come out since Bruce Smith. A true can't miss prospect. There's tons of these guys, weather t be injury or poor play they just don't get it done.

ROSCO P.C. JR
11-22-2005, 07:47 PM
dont mince words finjim tell us how you really feel about the talent in this years draft.

i know that qb brad smith would make a good wr and fb shawn willis is a beast . lt charle johnson is a workhorse and doesnt make a lot of mistakes .
i wish i knew who some cornerbacks are . the linebacker i want is a.j. hawk or daniel mclemore.

caneaddict
11-22-2005, 07:55 PM
What I've always wanted to see done is an objective analysis analyzing the success percentage among various picks.

You would start by defining different levels of success:

1) 5+ Pro Bowls
2) At least 1 Pro Bowl and X number of starts
3) X number of starts

You could find classifications for each position if you want and then have an objective grade say 1-4 for each player drafted. You would then look at the probability of reaching success at each pick and compare that to the Draft value chart used for trades.

So maybe you find that a #10 pick has a 8% chance of becoming a superstar and a #25 player has a 6% chance. So if you could trade down from 10 to 25 and acquire say a mid 2nd rounder that theoretically has a 3% chance of being a superstar then it would always make sense to trade down.

Instead of having a #10 pick with an 8% chance you have 2 players that together have a 9% chance of at least one of them becoming a superstar.

I wonder if the Phins would pay me to do the analysis?

finjim
11-23-2005, 09:28 AM
that's what I'm saying. So many people in here think it's a lock to get a stud in the first round. But it's not, especially at QB

arsenal
11-23-2005, 09:37 AM
What I've always wanted to see done is an objective analysis analyzing the success percentage among various picks.

You would start by defining different levels of success:

1) 5+ Pro Bowls
2) At least 1 Pro Bowl and X number of starts
3) X number of starts

You could find classifications for each position if you want and then have an objective grade say 1-4 for each player drafted. You would then look at the probability of reaching success at each pick and compare that to the Draft value chart used for trades.

So maybe you find that a #10 pick has a 8% chance of becoming a superstar and a #25 player has a 6% chance. So if you could trade down from 10 to 25 and acquire say a mid 2nd rounder that theoretically has a 3% chance of being a superstar then it would always make sense to trade down.

Instead of having a #10 pick with an 8% chance you have 2 players that together have a 9% chance of at least one of them becoming a superstar.

I wonder if the Phins would pay me to do the analysis?

somehting like that has already been done, dont remember where it is, but im sure it'll resurface as we get towards the offseason and draft time...

General Tso
11-23-2005, 09:37 AM
I'm talking about can't-miss-sure-fire-gonna be a stud in the NFL player.

Like Ryan Leaf.

Or that guy out of Iowa State who led the NCAA in rushing.

If you're talking about Iowa State's Troy Davis, he was never considered a can't-miss-sure-fire-gonna be a stud NFL player. He was simply a very good college RB. Hence why he wasn't drafted until the 3rd round.

Superself
11-23-2005, 10:15 AM
Yatil Green

Motion
11-23-2005, 10:20 AM
Terrance Neuman

finfan75
11-23-2005, 10:25 AM
Are you saying Vick, Palmer, Manning and Smith are busts?]

No way! I am saying 2 of the last 5 #1 picks are busts. The others we will see in the next couple years or like Vick and Palmer are already at or near the top of their game.

ch19079
11-23-2005, 10:29 AM
so to recap what people have added:

2000- courtney brown, peter warrick
2001- gerard warren
2002- mike williams (at this point i completly agree)
2003- charles rogers
2004- sean taylor
Ki-Jana Carter
Rashaan Salaam
Andre Ware
David Terrell
Ryan Leaf

i will add "The Soldier" Winslow
WR Rodgers (#2 overall in 2003)
QB Rex Grossman (#22 overall in 2003)
QB K. Boller (#19 overall in 2003)
DE Justin Smith (#4 overall in 2001) (L.T. was drafted #5 overall that year)

NLude33
11-23-2005, 11:16 AM
What about Robert Gallery? Wasn't he the can't miss franchise LT? He didn't ever start the opener last year, played at gaurd then because of an injury, and this year plays RT. Guess we can see for ourselves this weekend, but I don't think he was made the impact a #2 overall picked OL should make.