PDA

View Full Version : VERY important warning, re: judging the draft early



caneaddict
12-05-2005, 08:10 PM
So it's spring 2003. The Miami Heat are tanking and look awful. The top 4 picks in the draft are expected to be great .... followed by a HUGE dropoff.

Unanimously everyone expects the NBA draft to go:

1. Lebron James
2. Darko Milicic
3. Carmelo Anthony
4. Chris Bosh

This was looked at, at the time, as potentially one of the better drafts at the top 4 spots in a long time. Lebron was hyped like crazy. Darko was the most hyped Euro ever, and was expected to redefine his position. Melo had just won the NCAA tourney as a freshmen and the sky was the limit. Chris Bosh looked like he might be the next KG with his smooth moves and amazing agility for his height. Any of these guys was rated as a #1 overall pick in most other drafts. The problem was that after the stellar top 4, there was nothing else of real value.

The next group of players expected to go was a mixed bag with a super short PG, a big lumbering white center, another pg that everyone questioned and a undersized 2 guard. They all looked like a complete crap shoot, with a high probablity that a few if not all of them would be out of the league within a couple seasons.

Miami was in the hunt for the 4th spot in the draft and competing with Toronto. We were losing every night and so were they. But, during the final 2 weeks of the season we were playing Toronto twice. The loser of those games would lock up the 4th spot and Chris Bosh.

I was desperately rooting for Miami to lose those games; so were most people on the Miami Heat message board. We wanted Bosh.

Riley had no part of it. He had his team playing competitively while Toronto really did all they could to lose including sitting starters because of small "nicks".

Well, we won. I was pissed. The Heat message board and mock drafts were full of predictions of who we should take at #5. None were really sexy and it didn't appear any of them would develop into anything more than a decent role player. The consensus was that we would take the lumbering Center, Chris Kaman. A few mocks had us taking the short PG, TJ Ford. Others said we needed a PG but would go for the taller one, Kirk Heinrich.

At the end, Riley took the fast rising, undersized 2 guard. He had been projected to go somewhere in th #8-12 range but Riley reached. Had we lost to Toronto we would have taken Bosh FOR SURE. He looks great and I'm sure we would be happy. But instead we now have that undersized 2 guard -

DWAYNE WADE!!!!!!


The point of all this is don't get too caught up with what player will go where because you really never know. Had we lost to Toronto, I can guarantee we wouldn't have Wade today. Hopefully wherever we pick in the upcoming draft, Saban will find the Dolphins' Wade.

cnc66
12-05-2005, 08:16 PM
what does this have to do with the Dolphins?

CrazyCarl
12-05-2005, 08:17 PM
So it's spring 2003. The Miami Heat are tanking and look awful. The top 4 picks in the draft are expected to be great .... followed by a HUGE dropoff.

Unanimously everyone expects the NBA draft to go:

1. Lebron James
2. Darko Milicic
3. Carmelo Anthony
4. Chris Bosh

This was looked at, at the time, as potentially one of the better drafts at the top 4 spots in a long time. Lebron was hyped like crazy. Darko was the most hyped Euro ever, and was expected to redefine his position. Melo had just won the NCAA tourney as a freshmen and the sky was the limit. Chris Bosh looked like he might be the next KG with his smooth moves and amazing agility for his height. Any of these guys was rated as a #1 overall pick in most other drafts. The problem was that after the stellar top 4, there was nothing else of real value.

The next group of players expected to go was a mixed bag with a super short PG, a big lumbering white center, another pg that everyone questioned and a undersized 2 guard. They all looked like a complete crap shoot, with a high probablity that a few if not all of them would be out of the league within a couple seasons.

Miami was in the hunt for the 4th spot in the draft and competing with Toronto. We were losing every night and so were they. But, during the final 2 weeks of the season we were playing Toronto twice. The loser of those games would lock up the 4th spot and Chris Bosh.

I was desperately rooting for Miami to lose those games; so were most people on the Miami Heat message board. We wanted Bosh.

Riley had no part of it. He had his team playing competitively while Toronto really did all they could to lose including sitting starters because of small "nicks".

Well, we won. I was pissed. The Heat message board and mock drafts were full of predictions of who we should take at #5. None were really sexy and it didn't appear any of them would develop into anything more than a decent role player. The consensus was that we would take the lumbering Center, Chris Kaman. A few mocks had us taking the short PG, TJ Ford. Others said we needed a PG but would go for the taller one, Kirk Heinrich.

At the end, Riley took the fast rising, undersized 2 guard. He had been projected to go somewhere in th #8-12 range but Riley reached. Had we lost to Toronto we would have taken Bosh FOR SURE. He looks great and I'm sure we would be happy. But instead we now have that undersized 2 guard -

DWAYNE WADE!!!!!!


The point of all this is don't get too caught up with what player will go where because you really never know. Had we lost to Toronto, I can guarantee we wouldn't have Wade today. Hopefully wherever we pick in the upcoming draft, Saban will find the Dolphins' Wade.

Well since the NBA draft is a lottery the miami toronto situation really doesnt have that much of an effect on where your gonna pick..

retired opfinistic
12-05-2005, 08:18 PM
:confused:

Pocoloco
12-05-2005, 08:18 PM
well said. It's a lot of fun to speculate about the draft, but dynasties are won and lost on a team's ability to find the right types of guys. That's a perfect example

Alex44
12-05-2005, 08:19 PM
well the more you lose the better odds of being drawn first in the lottery, so it does affect it

caneaddict
12-05-2005, 08:19 PM
Just a warning of how looking at the draft too early is silly because you may end up rooting for the wrong thing. For instance, it would be silly to root for a high draft pick or any specific player because you never know how things will work out.

Cutler could be the next Peyton with Leinart completely busting. The top LB taken might be out of the league in a few years while the 3rd LB taken becomes a Hall of Famer.

CrazyCarl
12-05-2005, 08:21 PM
well the more you lose the better odds of being drawn first in the lottery, so it does affect it

Still not seeing the connection here

caneaddict
12-05-2005, 08:21 PM
Well since the NBA draft is a lottery the miami toronto situation really doesnt have that much of an effect on where your gonna pick..

Only the top 3 picks are drawn by lottery, the rest of the draft falls in reverse order of team record, so yes had Miami lost to Toronto those two games we would have picked 4th. That's what everyone expected at the time and it actually happened.

RunningBackGuru
12-05-2005, 08:23 PM
what does this have to do with the Dolphins?

Im not quite sure...

caneaddict
12-05-2005, 08:25 PM
Still not seeing the connection here

The Heat message board at the time had given up on the season (we were mathematically eliminated weeks earlier), and everyone was rooting to lose to Toronto so we could get Chris Bosh.

Pretty funny in hindsight that we all rooted for the wrong thing. That's why now, Dolphins fans should just enjoy the season and not spend much effort trying to predict where we will finish and who we should get there.

Dol-Fan Dupree
12-05-2005, 08:26 PM
The Heat message board at the time had given up on the season (we were mathematically eliminated weeks earlier), and everyone was rooting to lose to Toronto so we could get Chris Bosh.

Pretty funny in hindsight that we all rooted for the wrong thing. That's why now, Dolphins fans should just enjoy the season and not spend much effort trying to predict where we will finish and who we should get there.

I did not get that

caneaddict
12-05-2005, 08:28 PM
Im not quite sure...

It's akin to the Phins winning a few games and falling to the #20 pick where we go ahead and pick a Hall of Famer. All those threads questioning whether we should tank the season for Leinart would be silly. And the truth is it does happen (as indicated by the story above) so just enjoy the season.

dm416
12-05-2005, 08:28 PM
what does this have to do with the Dolphins?

It means don't throw your season just to get a high draft pick

Caps
12-05-2005, 08:51 PM
I did not get that

There are people on these boards that are upset that we're winning meaningless games because it hurts our draft spot. He's demonstrating that sometimes where you draft doesn't matter at all, as the Heat picked the second(arguably first) best player in the draft with the fifth pick. And they wouldn't have gotten Wade had they not won a few meaningless games. Moral of the story: Don't worry about your draft spot, especially when you have Saban and Mueller(or Riley in this case) calling the shots.

Dol-Fan Dupree
12-05-2005, 08:52 PM
There are people on these boards that are upset that we're winning meaningless games because it hurts our draft spot. He's demonstrating that sometimes where you draft doesn't matter at all, as the Heat picked the second(arguably first) best player in the draft with the fifth pick. And they wouldn't have gotten Wade had they not won a few meaningless games. Moral of the story: Don't worry about your draft spot, especially when you have Saban and Mueller calling the shots.

I understood with the explaination without it I thought you were talking about thinking this draft may fail

PhinsTD
12-05-2005, 08:53 PM
Wow, you put that together with what Miami fans wanted a few years back for Dewayne Wade?

You have no idea who they would have even drafted at the time.

My brain hurts after reading this.

Danny
12-05-2005, 09:13 PM
Man, the guy is making a point that everone should get...is amazing how many of you guys don't get it.You can get a good player at any spot in the draft and you can get a bad player(bust) at any time too.There's no such thing as a can't miss prospect.They're all hit or miss.That's the point he's trying to make.What's so hard to understand?

Ozzy rules!!

BSQX4
12-05-2005, 09:23 PM
Saban already got his Wade. His name is Ronnie Brown.

finmann
12-05-2005, 09:26 PM
So it's spring 2003. The Miami Heat are tanking and look awful. The top 4 picks in the draft are expected to be great .... followed by a HUGE dropoff.

Unanimously everyone expects the NBA draft to go:

1. Lebron James
2. Darko Milicic
3. Carmelo Anthony
4. Chris Bosh

This was looked at, at the time, as potentially one of the better drafts at the top 4 spots in a long time. Lebron was hyped like crazy. Darko was the most hyped Euro ever, and was expected to redefine his position. Melo had just won the NCAA tourney as a freshmen and the sky was the limit. Chris Bosh looked like he might be the next KG with his smooth moves and amazing agility for his height. Any of these guys was rated as a #1 overall pick in most other drafts. The problem was that after the stellar top 4, there was nothing else of real value.

The next group of players expected to go was a mixed bag with a super short PG, a big lumbering white center, another pg that everyone questioned and a undersized 2 guard. They all looked like a complete crap shoot, with a high probablity that a few if not all of them would be out of the league within a couple seasons.

Miami was in the hunt for the 4th spot in the draft and competing with Toronto. We were losing every night and so were they. But, during the final 2 weeks of the season we were playing Toronto twice. The loser of those games would lock up the 4th spot and Chris Bosh.

I was desperately rooting for Miami to lose those games; so were most people on the Miami Heat message board. We wanted Bosh.

Riley had no part of it. He had his team playing competitively while Toronto really did all they could to lose including sitting starters because of small "nicks".

Well, we won. I was pissed. The Heat message board and mock drafts were full of predictions of who we should take at #5. None were really sexy and it didn't appear any of them would develop into anything more than a decent role player. The consensus was that we would take the lumbering Center, Chris Kaman. A few mocks had us taking the short PG, TJ Ford. Others said we needed a PG but would go for the taller one, Kirk Heinrich.

At the end, Riley took the fast rising, undersized 2 guard. He had been projected to go somewhere in th #8-12 range but Riley reached. Had we lost to Toronto we would have taken Bosh FOR SURE. He looks great and I'm sure we would be happy. But instead we now have that undersized 2 guard -

DWAYNE WADE!!!!!!


The point of all this is don't get too caught up with what player will go where because you really never know. Had we lost to Toronto, I can guarantee we wouldn't have Wade today. Hopefully wherever we pick in the upcoming draft, Saban will find the Dolphins' Wade.


Thanks brother...point taken.

Mike13
12-05-2005, 09:27 PM
Saban already got his Wade. His name is Ronnie Brown.

Ronnie want a suprise, D Wade was.