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ArticleNinja
12-19-2005, 11:27 PM
Discuss this article or suffer dire consequences: http://www.finheaven.com/cms/254.html.

finswin56
12-20-2005, 12:21 AM
Discuss this article or suffer dire consequences: http://www.finheaven.com/cms/254.html.Awesome write up Phil!

How you ever have time to do your real job is beyond me.

RWhitney014
12-20-2005, 12:38 AM
Why are you writing about baseball? That's my job! :wink:

Anyway, boy, Phil, you are a tough grader, except for the homer A you gave the Mets. Their shiny new acquisitions look great now, but they are not gonna like it in 2008/09 when Delgado, Wagner, Pedro, and Lo Duca (if they add more to his contract) are all getting up there in years and salary, and their entire farm system is wearing teal...or whatever colors that franchise will be wearing.

Ray Finkle
12-20-2005, 12:39 AM
Good analysis on all the teams and an interesting read. I do however disagree with a few of the grades you gave some teams but I did enjoy reading it.

phunwin
12-20-2005, 10:06 AM
Awesome write up Phil!

How you ever have time to do your real job is beyond me.

Thanks!

Actually, I wrote this up on Saturday while my wife was finishing her Christmas shopping. (My weekly Dolphins article usually gets written Monday or Tuesday night.) I was going to watch the Bucs-Pats game, but that turned suck-tastic in a hurry. If I'm out shopping for more than about 2 hours, I start acting like a fussy 3 year old, so once I finished the shopping I had to do, I was sent home so my wife could buy perfume for my sister and other such things. I'm not proud of this, but we are what we are.

NJFINSFAN1
12-20-2005, 10:12 AM
Great write up Phil!

PS

Between you and me, your grade is right on about the Mets!;)

phunwin
12-20-2005, 10:19 AM
Why are you writing about baseball? That's my job! :wink:

Anyway, boy, Phil, you are a tough grader, except for the homer A you gave the Mets. Their shiny new acquisitions look great now, but they are not gonna like it in 2008/09 when Delgado, Wagner, Pedro, and Lo Duca (if they add more to his contract) are all getting up there in years and salary, and their entire farm system is wearing teal...or whatever colors that franchise will be wearing.

I tried not to be a homer. Maybe I failed. :goof:

As I noted with the Jays, the market basically dictates that you overpay for pitching, so obviously I took that into account. If you're going to overpay for quality, fine. If you're overpaying for Todd Jones and Kenny Rogers, you get marked down. I didn't give the Jays a B because I thought they overpaid drastically (they did), I gave them a B because I think that Burnett is going to be either a star or a Darren Dreifort-level flop, without much middle ground. And personally, I think 5 years for BJ Ryan is a lot dumber than 4 years for Wagner.

I totally agree that the 4th year of the Wagner and Martinez contracts will likely be a write-off. But then, I thought the same thing about the Glavine contract, and he looked better last year than he had in probably 4 years, so who knows? Delgado should be productive through the end of his contract, so that doesn't worry me. But if LoDuca gets a contract extension in May, when he's hitting .350, I'm taking hostages. You can be sure of that.

If I was going to mark the Mets down, say to a B+, it would have been because they gave up Petit in the deal for Delgado and because they only got Nady for Cameron. However, the Marlins later vets-for-prospects deals seemed to show that they would have been resolute in that demand, and at some point, someone would have stepped up to make a deal for Delgado. The White Sox, for example, had not yet acquired Thome, and are paying only slightly less for him now than the Mets will for Delgado, I believe. Since Delgado is almost certainly the better investment, the Sox might have been tempted to get in on that. So while they might have been able to hold firm and cut a better deal, it's iffy, and probably not worth risking missing out on a consistent 35 HR, 100 RBI man at first.

The Nady/Cameron deal does bug me some, though. With just one year left, Cam's deal was hardly unreasonable, and as a guy in a walk year, he stands a good chance to produce big. I like Nady as a 4 position type who can put up decent numbers, but Cam was worth more, even if they saved $5+ million. So I almost knocked them down on that basis.

finswin56
12-20-2005, 10:43 AM
Thanks!

Actually, I wrote this up on Saturday while my wife was finishing her Christmas shopping. (My weekly Dolphins article usually gets written Monday or Tuesday night.) I was going to watch the Bucs-Pats game, but that turned suck-tastic in a hurry. If I'm out shopping for more than about 2 hours, I start acting like a fussy 3 year old, so once I finished the shopping I had to do, I was sent home so my wife could buy perfume for my sister and other such things. I'm not proud of this, but we are what we are.Sounds familiar :lol:

The Cameron deal is still stuck in my craw.

phunwin
12-20-2005, 02:15 PM
BTW, after the Garciaparra signing, and the underrated Kenny Lofton signing, I'd bump the Dodgers up to an B+ or even A-. I really like what they're doing in LA; right now, I think they're the best team in the West. Furcal, Mueller, Lofton and Garciaparra should boost the team's OBP by a good 40 points.

RWhitney014
12-20-2005, 03:24 PM
Best team in the NL West is like having the best-cooked steak at the tartare competition.

phunwin
12-20-2005, 03:52 PM
Best team in the NL West is like having the best-cooked steak at the tartare competition.

Yeah, I know. 85 wins is almost certainly enough to take that division. But hey, better to be at the top of the trash heap than the bottom.

Ray Finkle
12-20-2005, 04:19 PM
BTW, after the Garciaparra signing, and the underrated Kenny Lofton signing, I'd bump the Dodgers up to an B+ or even A-. I really like what they're doing in LA; right now, I think they're the best team in the West. Furcal, Mueller, Lofton and Garciaparra should boost the team's OBP by a good 40 points.

I agree with the B+/A- although the Dodgers still need starters. I think if everyone is healthy they'll win the west. They have the best line up on paper.

GreenMonster
12-20-2005, 04:44 PM
I agree with the B+/A- although the Dodgers still need starters. I think if everyone is healthy they'll win the west. They have the best line up on paper.

Yikes, I like what the Dodgers have done but they need more pitching badly. D. Lowe or Penny are their #1/#2 and it doesn't get better from there Perez(still waiting), DJ Houlton(decent rookie last year), Edwin Jackson(looked pretty good and only 23).. Gagne is great, Sanchez good, Brazoban has potential, and the rest are a bunch of unproven young arms. They will hit much better this year, but I am afraid it won't matter if they can't keep guys from scoring. The D should be much, much better also with some guys that can actually play the field.

Ray Finkle
12-20-2005, 06:33 PM
Yikes, I like what the Dodgers have done but they need more pitching badly. D. Lowe or Penny are their #1/#2 and it doesn't get better from there Perez(still waiting), DJ Houlton(decent rookie last year), Edwin Jackson(looked pretty good and only 23).. Gagne is great, Sanchez good, Brazoban has potential, and the rest are a bunch of unproven young arms. They will hit much better this year, but I am afraid it won't matter if they can't keep guys from scoring. The D should be much, much better also with some guys that can actually play the field.

The rest of the West needs pitching too. The Rockies aren't going to be good, but SF only has Schmidt, and SD only has Peavy. Granted both are legit #1 starters. LAD in my opinion has more depth pitching wise (I'm not saying I like their pitching it just shows a lack of pitching in the west).

DonShula84
12-20-2005, 08:11 PM
I think you can bump the Rangers grade up a bit after getting Eaton and Otsuka today. They are improving there team and my Angels arent doing much, they need to make a move. I wish they'd given Byrd the 2 year deal he was looking for.

Good article though

Phinz4Life
12-20-2005, 11:58 PM
Yankees motto for the off-season:

Less is more.

:D

I'm not displeased at all with Bubba in center. Hitting fine down the stretch, and you can't have an all-star at every position. Melky will eventually take that spot, but the guy needs some time.

I think finally with the troubled season and the rise of a few young minor leaguers fitting in (Cano and Wang), the Yankees brass is starting to protect the farm.

wazzy
12-21-2005, 12:07 AM
I like your evaluation about every team almost. I think some things could of been different but I am a Jays fan and I agree totally with the overpaying of there players. It is hard to bring players here though now and since we had the money and we needed pitchers we just gave up the big money to get the talent. I think it can really backfire if Burnet doesn't stay healthy or BJ doesn't live up to expectations.

RWhitney014
12-21-2005, 12:38 AM
Yankees motto for the off-season:

Less is more.

:D

I'm not displeased at all with Bubba in center. Hitting fine down the stretch, and you can't have an all-star at every position. Melky will eventually take that spot, but the guy needs some time.

I think finally with the troubled season and the rise of a few young minor leaguers fitting in (Cano and Wang), the Yankees brass is starting to protect the farm.

And as soon as you say that, they commit to Damon for four years, effectively ending Melky's stay in the Bronx.

phunwin
12-21-2005, 10:48 AM
I like your evaluation about every team almost. I think some things could of been different but I am a Jays fan and I agree totally with the overpaying of there players. It is hard to bring players here though now and since we had the money and we needed pitchers we just gave up the big money to get the talent. I think it can really backfire if Burnet doesn't stay healthy or BJ doesn't live up to expectations.

I like that they're taking a chance, but I just learned something about Burnett's deal that makes me question their wisdom: it's a 5 year deal, but Burnett can opt out after 3. So basically, they're taking all the risk of a long term contract, and none of the benefit. If Burnett becomes the next Roger Clemens, he can opt out after 3 years and get someone to pay him $16M a year (or whatever the market price is at that time), but if he pulls a Darren Dreifort, they're stuck.

phunwin
12-21-2005, 10:49 AM
Lot of scratch for Damon. 4 years and $52M? Still, they've got the money, and he shouldn't be too bad by year 4 of the deal. Kick the Yanks up to a B+.

GreenMonster
12-21-2005, 12:34 PM
Lot of scratch for Damon. 4 years and $52M? Still, they've got the money, and he shouldn't be too bad by year 4 of the deal. Kick the Yanks up to a B+.

Define shouldn't be too bad. If Damon is hitting .275/.320/.420 the Yanks will surely be mad they spent 13 million a year. If those are his numbers in year 4 and or any years leading up to that Damon may not even be hitting leadoff anymore. Fenway is a much better hitters park than NY, and centerfield was also much cosier at Fenway. I am glad the Sox held firm at a number they thought was the max they could pay for a player like Damon. I am just happy we got the best 4 years out of him for decent money.

ILPhinFan88
12-21-2005, 01:00 PM
Yikes, I like what the Dodgers have done but they need more pitching badly. D. Lowe or Penny are their #1/#2 and it doesn't get better from there Perez(still waiting), DJ Houlton(decent rookie last year), Edwin Jackson(looked pretty good and only 23).. Gagne is great, Sanchez good, Brazoban has potential, and the rest are a bunch of unproven young arms. They will hit much better this year, but I am afraid it won't matter if they can't keep guys from scoring. The D should be much, much better also with some guys that can actually play the field.


Los Angeles Dodgers – Paid a ton for Rafael Furcal (3 years, $39 million), but better to overpay for quality than crap (see Tigers, Detroit). Furcal should help a dormant offense. Bill Mueller was a nice pickup, too, but they could use at least one more hitter. Grade: B


http://www.finheaven.com/images/imported/2005/12/ph_117863-1.jpghttp://www.finheaven.com/images/imported/2005/12/trans-1.gifhttp://www.finheaven.com/images/imported/2005/12/txt_2003_stats-1.gifhttp://www.finheaven.com/images/imported/2005/12/trans-1.gifFull Name: Kenneth Lofton
Born: 05/31/1967
Birthplace: East Chicago, IN
Height: 6'0" Weight: 190
Bats: Left
Throws: Left
College: Arizona
MLB Debut: 09/14/1991
http://www.finheaven.com/images/imported/2005/12/trans-1.gifhttp://www.finheaven.com/images/imported/2005/12/txt_avg-1.gif.335http://www.finheaven.com/images/imported/2005/12/txt_hr-1.gif2http://www.finheaven.com/images/imported/2005/12/txt_rbi-1.gif36http://www.finheaven.com/images/imported/2005/12/txt_sb-1.gif22



GO Dodgers!!!!

phunwin
12-21-2005, 01:19 PM
Define shouldn't be too bad. If Damon is hitting .275/.320/.420 the Yanks will surely be mad they spent 13 million a year. If those are his numbers in year 4 and or any years leading up to that Damon may not even be hitting leadoff anymore. Fenway is a much better hitters park than NY, and centerfield was also much cosier at Fenway. I am glad the Sox held firm at a number they thought was the max they could pay for a player like Damon. I am just happy we got the best 4 years out of him for decent money.

Damon's OPS+ numbers the last four years (that is, his time in Boston) are 113, 94, 117, 113. That's a park-adjusted number, and it indicates that, his 2003 season aside, he's been roughly 15% better than the average major league hitter. Plus, Damon's 32 next year, and so he should have at least 2-3 years at his current productivity before he starts to decline. So unless his skills absolutely fall off a cliff, he should be at least a league average hitter that 4th year, which I imagine the Yankees will take if he's as good as he has been the last few years.

And ILPhinPhan, if you'll look on the previous page, I already gave your Dodgers props (and a grade bump) already for the Lofton and Garciaparra signings.

Roman529
12-21-2005, 05:02 PM
You gave my Philthadelphia Phillies a C- :confused:


Padilla was getting lit up like crazy so no big loss there....yes, we are gonna miss Wagner, but Gordon can get three outs just as easily...we are gonna have to replace Urbina Urgueth who tried killing a bunch of folks in Venezuela....but Thome whiffed as often as he hit a homer....Howard is way better....we got a CF from the White Sox so Lofton leaving is no biggie. I think the Phillies battle the Mets for 1st this season, with the Braves going down....no more Leo Mazzoni and Smoltz can't keep doing it all every year. The Nats and Marlins also won't be a factor.

FinsNYanksFan13
12-21-2005, 05:06 PM
You gave my Philthadelphia Phillies a C- :confused:


Padilla was getting lit up like crazy so no big loss there....yes, we are gonna miss Wagner, but Gordon can get three outs just as easily...we are gonna have to replace Urbina Urgueth who tried killing a bunch of folks in Venezuela....but Thome whiffed as often as he hit a homer....Howard is way better....we got a CF from the White Sox so Lofton leaving is no biggie. I think the Phillies battle the Mets for 1st this season, with the Braves going down....no more Leo Mazzoni and Smoltz can't keep doing it all every year. The Nats and Marlins also won't be a factor.



You girls in the NL East have been saying that for 8 years now and the Braves keep winning it. The Phillies and Mets have about 6 NL East titles on paper each LMAO!

phunwin
12-21-2005, 05:13 PM
You gave my Philthadelphia Phillies a C- :confused:


Padilla was getting lit up like crazy so no big loss there....yes, we are gonna miss Wagner, but Gordon can get three outs just as easily...we are gonna have to replace Urbina Urgueth who tried killing a bunch of folks in Venezuela....but Thome whiffed as often as he hit a homer....Howard is way better....we got a CF from the White Sox so Lofton leaving is no biggie. I think the Phillies battle the Mets for 1st this season, with the Braves going down....no more Leo Mazzoni and Smoltz can't keep doing it all every year. The Nats and Marlins also won't be a factor.

The Gordon signing is going to be a disaster. Mark my words. It will look good until June 1, if that long, and after that, it's going to get steadily worse until they hire his would-be bullpen mate to whack him and get his salary off the payroll. The declining K ratio, his age and the fact that he's increasingly becoming a one-pitch pitcher is going to mean that Gordon is going to fail as closer. Losing a good setup man like Urbina isn't going to help, either.

Padilla's nothing great, but a team in need of starting pitching ought not to be dealing one away, even a mediocre one like that.

I liked the Thome trade and said so. It's just that the Phillies haven't done anything else positive while the Mets (who were basically dead even with them at the end of last year) got significantly better.