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killswitch
12-22-2005, 04:38 PM
The following are working lists of prospects that I’m predicting will or won’t disappoint as NFL players. These lists don’t take into account for how much the prospects may disappoint or surprise; it simply predicts whether they ultimately will or wont disappoint, disregarding injuries, and taking into account where they’re drafted (or expected to be drafted as of now). For example, just because Eric Henderson made the “Prospects Who Will Disappoint” list doesn’t mean I think he’ll be a bad NFL player; it just means I think his value won’t be worth where he was drafted. I’m expecting him to be drafted around the 3rd round, but I think he’ll prove to only be an situational pass rusher and career backup not worth 3rd-round value.

The prospects are ordered within their school year (arranged by seniors and juniors) and by they’re predicted draft spots, but not necessarily by who I think is the better prospect. For example, I think Dominque Byrd will be a better NFL player than Max Jean-Gilles (even though I also think Jean-Gilles will prove to be a solid player himself), but since I don’t think he’ll will be drafted ahead of Jean-Gilles, Byrd’s lower on the list.

In making these two lists, I didn’t account for injuries or the risk of injuries (Brodie Croyle, Jason Allen, Ray McDonald, and Eric Henderson, and especially Will Derting, among others, are all prospects who’ve shown problems with injuries; I didn’t account for injuries because it’s too random to predict in my opinion, and, because injuries don’t take away from the talent a prospect may have.) For players who aren’t included on either list, I haven’t formed an opinion on them. So just because Matt Leinart didn’t make the first list doesn’t mean I think he’ll be a disappointment; it just means I haven’t formed an opinion on him. (And I’m aware that not all of the juniors I’ve included will declare for the draft; in fact, most I’ve included will probably not.)




Prospects Who Won’t Disappoint


LB...A.J. Hawk...Ohio State...Sr.

RB...DeAngelo Williams...Memphis...Sr.

OT...D’Brickashaw Ferguson...Virginia...Sr.

OLB...DeMeco Ryans...Alabama...Sr.

OG...Max Jean-Gilles...Georgia...Sr.

OT...Marcus McNeill...Auburn...Sr.

DE...Elvis Dumerville...Louisville...Sr.

OT...Jeremy Trueblood...Boston College...Sr.

DT...Jesse Mahelona...Tennessee...Sr.

DE...Darryl Tapp...Virginia Tech...Sr.

QB...Jay Cutler...Vanderbilt...Sr.

C...Greg Eslinger...Minnesota...Sr.

QB...Brodie Croyle...Alabama...Sr.

WR...Sinorice Moss...Miami (FL)...Sr.

TE...Dominique Byrd...USC...Sr.

OG...Daryn Colledge...Boise State...Sr.

S...Jason Allen...Tennessee...Sr.

QB...Charlie Whitehurst...Clemson...Sr.

RB...P.J. Daniels...Georgia Tech...Sr.

DT...Larry Dibbles...Texas...Sr.

QB...Darrell Hackney...UAB...Sr.

S...Jamaal Fudge...Clemson...Sr.

LB...Will Derting...Washington State...Sr.

RB...Reggie Bush...USC...Jr.

RB...Laurence Maroney...Minnesota...Jr.

RB...Maurice Drew...UCLA...Jr.

LB...Ahmad Brooks...Virginia...Jr.

RB...Brian Calhoun...Wisconsin...Jr.

DE...Ray McDonald...Florida...Jr.



Prospects Who Will Disappoint


DT...Rodrique Wright...Texas...Sr.

WR...Jonathan Orr...Wisconsin...Sr.

DE...Eric Henderson...Georgia Tech...Sr.

TE...David Thomas...Texas...Sr.

QB...Omar Jacobs...Bowling Green...Jr.

RB...Michael Bush...Louisville...Jr.

WR...Jeff Samardzija...Notre Dame...Jr.

S...Will Herring...Auburn...Jr.


*prospects in bold are the ones I'm most confident about

-and by the way, I didn't really do this randomly; I have an explanation for why each player made whichever list


BOOMER...your thoughts?

BrazForPhins
12-22-2005, 04:45 PM
very interesting..can I hear your explanation for o. jacobs? thanx

killswitch
12-22-2005, 04:54 PM
very interesting..can I hear your explanation for o. jacobs? thanx

http://www.finheaven.com/boardvb2/showthread.php?t=101073&highlight=killswitch

the link is a post I made almost a few months ago and in it it explains why I think Jacobs will disappoint as a pro player

BrazForPhins
12-22-2005, 04:58 PM
http://www.finheaven.com/boardvb2/showthread.php?t=101073&highlight=killswitch

the link is a post I made almost a few months ago and in it it explains why I think Jacobs will disappoint as a pro player

oh, good, I'll check it

DonShula84
12-22-2005, 05:30 PM
WR...Jeff Samardzija...Notre Dame...Jr.

He wont be in the draft so you dont have to worry about it

Motion
12-22-2005, 05:33 PM
I saw Killswitch Engage in concert a couple months back.




List looks pretty good.

killswitch
12-22-2005, 07:40 PM
He wont be in the draft so you dont have to worry about it

i know, but he will be next year

Alex44
12-22-2005, 07:43 PM
Ok so jacobs runs a spread offense whats your point?

That also gives him a chance to make more bad plays and he doesnt

killswitch
12-22-2005, 07:46 PM
Ok so jacobs runs a spread offense whats your point?

That also gives him a chance to make more bad plays and he doesnt

what?

Alex44
12-22-2005, 07:47 PM
what?


wasnt replying to you, but someone a few posts up


EDIT: Ok it was you a few posts up


Your explanation on Jacobs says he puts up #'s because of his spread offense

I was just pointing out that also gives him more chances to make mistakes

killswitch
12-22-2005, 08:03 PM
wasnt replying to you, but someone a few posts up


EDIT: Ok it was you a few posts up


Your explanation on Jacobs says he puts up #'s because of his spread offense

I was just pointing out that also gives him more chances to make mistakes

no it doesn't. a spread offense is usually very QB-firendly. The teams just popping to mind that run a spread offense are Texas Tech, Hawii, and Bowling Green (of course there are others). Now go look at the QB stats for those teams over the past few years. seriouisly, go look.

Timmy Chang for Hawii put up record-setting numbers, as did Josh Harris for Bowling Green, as did BJ Symons for Texas Tech as couple years ago and Cody Hodges for Texas Tech this year. None of those QB's are on NFL rosters now (and Cody Hodges won't even get drafted as he's not even considered a real NFL prospect). The spread offense that these teams run are the most QB-friendly system that exists. How in the **** can u reason that a spread offense means a QB has more chances to make a mistake. U obviously don't know football well, b/c a spred offense opens up the field for a QB, making it relatively easier for the passing game.

(And btw, my argument for why Jacobs won't be good in the NFL isn't just based on the fact that he's overrated b/c of the spread offense he's in. I really just think he lacks the QB skills, as I said his accuracy is extremely overrated, he doesn't have a great arm, his release is horrible, etc.)

kastofsna120
12-22-2005, 08:36 PM
actually chang has thrown more interceptions than anyone in NCAA history

Alex44
12-22-2005, 08:39 PM
no it doesn't. a spread offense is usually very QB-firendly. The teams just popping to mind that run a spread offense are Texas Tech, Hawii, and Bowling Green (of course there are others). Now go look at the QB stats for those teams over the past few years. seriouisly, go look.

Timmy Chang for Hawii put up record-setting numbers, as did Josh Harris for Bowling Green, as did BJ Symons for Texas Tech as couple years ago and Cody Hodges for Texas Tech this year. None of those QB's are on NFL rosters now (and Cody Hodges won't even get drafted as he's not even considered a real NFL prospect). The spread offense that these teams run are the most QB-friendly system that exists. How in the **** can u reason that a spread offense means a QB has more chances to make a mistake. U obviously don't know football well, b/c a spred offense opens up the field for a QB, making it relatively easier for the passing game.

(And btw, my argument for why Jacobs won't be good in the NFL isn't just based on the fact that he's overrated b/c of the spread offense he's in. I really just think he lacks the QB skills, as I said his accuracy is extremely overrated, he doesn't have a great arm, his release is horrible, etc.)


Um wow

ask any scout and they will tell you he has an amazing arm and great accuracy

his faults are his bad mechanics and occasional bad decisions

Also how can you not say a spread offense gives more chances for mistakes

more throws = more opportunity's to make a mistake such as a bad read or bad throw

just as it gives you more chances to make a good play

fins5423
12-23-2005, 01:02 AM
Omar Jacobs has a very strange throwing motion and it wont be so easy to throw that way in the NFL, hes also part of a different type offence at Bowling Green. Both factors are negitive to his success in the NFL.

killswitch
12-23-2005, 03:20 AM
more throws = more opportunity's to make a mistake such as a bad read or bad throw

just as it gives you more chances to make a good play

so if the spread offense isn't QB-friendly, then tell me what accounts for the consistent highly inflated statistics for QB's who play in the spread offense?

And if your gonna talk about what scouts say, i can guarantee you that all scouts agree the spread offenses of Bowling Green, Hawaii, and Texas Tech, etc. are extremely QB-FRIENDLY. It's really not even debatable when you look at the stats. How else does Cody Hodges throw for 643 yds in a game?

saves
12-23-2005, 03:51 AM
so if the spread offense isn't QB-friendly, then tell me what accounts for the consistent highly inflated statistics for QB's who play in the spread offense?

And if your gonna talk about what scouts say, i can guarantee you that all scouts agree the spread offenses of Bowling Green, Hawaii, and Texas Tech, etc. are extremely QB-FRIENDLY. It's really not even debatable when you look at the stats. How else does Cody Hodges throw for 643 yds in a game?


The systems are a huge plus for the quarterback but your missing what he is trying to say. When your in an offense like that the defense knows your throwing and is ready for you. When you throw a minimal amount of INT's such as Omar people are really going to take note, because that is an acomplishment no on ever did.

And I love that assement of the kid you have in your other post. I can be 100% positive you have never seen him play anytime other than Boise State. It was a horrible display by the team and Omar, and the Boise State defense absolutley figured out the offense, and I've never seen him start a game so bad. But to their defense, Boise dosn't have that home win streak for a reason, and the amount of support they had at that games makes the word minimal an overstatement.

Besides that, his other full year of starting and even against highly ranked Wisconsin this year, he has looked amazing with great arm strength and incredible accuracy and decision making. Go back and watch that game, he should have won it for them on more than one occasion, but dropped passes, even a big droped TD, plauged the team.

And Bowling Green runs the ball more than their fair share, notching up well over 1,000 yards rushing, and he runs more of a balanced offense than you think.

He has displayed all the physical tools needed to be a NFL quality player. He has size, athletic ablity, and an arm that makes all the throws. He has displayed a great amount of composure and a good QB mind, knowing when to take a chance and when not too. My largest knock on him is not his mechanics, which I say if they ain't broke don't fix um (he is 6'5 the ball isn't coming out that low), but his quiet personality. He is not a real rah rah QB, but a quiet, composed type. The kind of guy who just wants to go out and get it done, almost machine like. But his teamates trust him and respect him as their star so I guess he is doing something right.

After his recored setting first season, his second starting year included a separated shoulder, underachieving team, and some personal problems, but in light of all these things he has still put up a year alot of QB's wouldn't mind having. I'm not going to say he is a sure fire hit, but to be as confident of his failure as you are is absured and shows your apparent lack of knowledge on the subject.

Slappy8800
12-23-2005, 04:08 AM
what ya'all think of the TE from Notre Dame - Fasano?

DonShula84
12-23-2005, 05:45 AM
what ya'all think of the TE from Notre Dame - Fasano?

He's the man, but hopefully he applies to be a 5th year senior and comes back ;)

Slappy8800
12-23-2005, 06:27 AM
He's the man, but hopefully he applies to be a 5th year senior and comes back ;)

im hoping that aswell ;)

marino1348
12-25-2005, 11:04 PM
Jeff Samardzija he is still a junier and most likely wont declare but could you please explain that?

RunningBackGuru
12-26-2005, 12:45 AM
Interesting list, but it is impossible to predict who will and will not dissapoint. Even Bush or Leinart could end up being a career backup.

killswitch
12-27-2005, 03:42 AM
Jeff Samardzija he is still a junier and most likely wont declare but could you please explain that?

i doubt Samardzija will declare as well. And why I think he'll disappoint? b/c most sources I've seen have him as a 1st or 2nd rd pick and one of the top WR's for the '07 draft, and IMO that shouldn't be the case at all. He's obviously a productive player, but I don't think he has anywhere near the great natural ball skills of most deserved 1st-day WR's, like Dewayne Jarret, Calvin Johnson (guys who I think will both declare after next year), plus Greg Lee from Pitt, and Chad Jackson (Fla) for the '07 class. He's a reliable WR who'll make the catches he should for the most part. As far as creating separation, he's decent, but I think he's a prime example of where his QB makes him look better than he may really be. I also don't think he has the quickness or burst of other elite guys for the '07 class such as Santonio Holmes, Steve Smith (USC), or Steve Breaston from Mich. All things considered, Samardjiza just does not have the type of talent those guys have IMO. He's hight is a huge advantage, and I think he'll be only an alright posession WR, maybe a 4th WR no better than a 3rd WR for a team. IMO he just doesn't have the upside for the NFL; I think he'll be easy to cover. (and no I'm not just assuming that b/c he's white like my friend accused me of doing).

FuturePhin
12-27-2005, 04:05 AM
I have to say I have a hunch that Virginia Tech's Williams will disapoint.