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View Full Version : 1st Round Bye = Overrated



Killer_Dolphins
01-16-2006, 04:12 PM
I believe it's a disadvantage because your players get rusty by not playing in that 1st round. Plus some teams rest their players way to soon. For example, the Colts began resting some of their key players in week 15. That's too long of a rest. I know team want to keep their players from getting hurt in meaningless games but it also hurts them. 3 out of 4 teams that had a bye week in the playoffs got eliminated.

finsruleurlife
01-16-2006, 04:15 PM
yes Definitly. Colts went 13-0 for the first 13 games, and they couldnt even get past 1st game they played in playoffs. When you get a first round bye, u sub ur players at the end of the season, and then another week goes by, and then everybody is rusty. EX-Colts played great in 4th quarter b/c they were back in a groove

Dol-Fan Dupree
01-16-2006, 04:17 PM
I think the past tells a different story. I believe over 70% of the teams with the first round bye wins their game.

Myself I think rust is over rated. The Colts were out played because they were out played, not because they took weeks off. That is just an excuse.

Aqua4Ever04
01-16-2006, 04:19 PM
I think the past tells a different story. I believe over 70% of the teams with the first round bye wins their game.

Myself I think rust is over rated. The Colts were out played because they were out played, not because they took weeks off. That is just an excuse.

Agreed. The Colts were just flat out, out played by the Steelers and the Panthers are a better football team then the bears and that is why those two teams won.

SCall13
01-16-2006, 04:19 PM
I think it depends on how healthy your team is. If the overall health of the team is good (the Colts) then you should play your guys. If you have some keys guys somewhat dinged up that would normally play heading into the playoffs, it would be a good idea to rest them. But I'd say start as many of the starters as possible to keep the timing of the group going.

endorphin
01-16-2006, 04:20 PM
I believe it's a disadvantage because your players get rusty by not playing in that 1st round. Plus some teams rest their players way to soon. For example, the Colts began resting some of their key players in week 15. That's too long of a rest. I know team want to keep their players from getting hurt in meaningless games but it also hurts them. 3 out of 4 teams that had a bye week in the playoffs got eliminated.

I think statistics will tell otherwise...

DeathStar
01-16-2006, 04:21 PM
I think the past tells a different story. I believe over 70% of the teams with the first round bye wins their game.

Myself I think rust is over rated. The Colts were out played because they were out played, not because they took weeks off. That is just an excuse.

its at 82%.

PressCoverage
01-16-2006, 04:23 PM
3 out of 4 teams that had a bye week in the playoffs got eliminated.

wrong.... take another look...

Dol-Fan Dupree
01-16-2006, 04:24 PM
its at 82%.

See that is 12% over 70%. That is a huge advantage.

jlfin
01-16-2006, 04:27 PM
That is not usually the case. By week 17 most teams have a few injured players with nagging injuries. It gives those teams time to get healty.

Historically, the bye weeks have been beneficial. The problems with the Colts wasn't the bye week, but rather the last 2-3 weeks of the season when they were resting some players.

LOCAL SCUM!
01-16-2006, 04:28 PM
It didnt' seem to hurt the Broncos.

BlueFin
01-16-2006, 04:47 PM
I believe it's a disadvantage because your players get rusty by not playing in that 1st round. Plus some teams rest their players way to soon. For example, the Colts began resting some of their key players in week 15. That's too long of a rest. I know team want to keep their players from getting hurt in meaningless games but it also hurts them. 3 out of 4 teams that had a bye week in the playoffs got eliminated.

Historically, it is a big advantage to have the bye week, I don't have the exact numbers for you, but I'm pretty sure the bye week teams have won a much greater percentage of the games than the wildcard teams playing on the road.

Aren't your numbers wrong? Denver and Seattle had bye weeks and won.

Awsi Dooger
01-16-2006, 05:01 PM
Wrong. Wrong. Wrong. Kudos to PressCoverage and Dol-Fan Dupree and others who have already pointed that out.

If anything the first round bye is very underrated. As a gambler I typically salivate before that weekend but it wasn't the case this year. You had a remarkably unique season in which the lowest seeds had among the very best quarterbacks and talent and balance. Typically the road teams in the 2nd round have many severe flaws but this year only the Washington quarterbacking was suspect.

Since joining this board I've emphasized rushing attempts and yards per pass attempt. Pittsburgh was 1st in the league in both rushing attempts and YPA (Roethlisberger 8.90) despite being the 6th seed. Likewise, Carolina had Delhomme with 7.8 yards per attempt, among the top handful in the league, plus high rushing attempts and a talented defense.

I did manage to bet on Carolina and I'm feeling somewhat moronic for letting Pittsburgh get away, but in this 2nd round I'm always going to tilt toward the home team under the current format and in the long run that will be advantageous.

Finland
01-16-2006, 05:05 PM
I think the past tells a different story. I believe over 70% of the teams with the first round bye wins their game.

Myself I think rust is over rated. The Colts were out played because they were out played, not because they took weeks off. That is just an excuse.


I agree with you. The Colts have not done well lately and Payton looked awful in the first QTR. He was nervous. He may not be able to win the big one he is not mentally tough.

Very little to do with the week off IMO.

Even though Marino never won the big one he at least got there and looked confident. Payton doubts himself. the perfect season put too much pressure on them. When that bit was over...they started saying OK, not INdy can just worry about winnning the Superbowl...They should have worried about winning the next game.

PressCoverage
01-16-2006, 05:17 PM
for the record, it was 2 out of 4.... not 3 out of 4

Denver and Seattle each won...

unifiedtheory
01-16-2006, 06:43 PM
The bye week is the goal. The key is to not clinch too early. You want to play meaningful games until the end of the season so the players don't get rusty.

This weekend was an oddity.

I picked the Bears and Colts to lose anyway.