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NEW-ERA-PHIN
01-17-2006, 12:46 AM
Alright, I did my homework so listen up. I think there is clear evidence here as to why the Phins should not draft a QB at 16 and especially not in the first round.

In the last 15 super bowls, there are been a total of 10 QB's to win the SB
1. Brady (3 '05, '04, '02 w/ NE) 6th RD 2000
2. B. Johnson (TB '03) 9th RD.
3. Trent Dilfer (Balt '01) 6th Pick in 1st round '94
4. K.Warner (Stl '00) Undrafted
5. Elway (2 w/ Den '98,'99) #1 overall in '83 for the Baltimore Colts
6. Favre (GB '97) 2nd round 1991
7. Aikman (3 w/ Dallas '96, '94,'93) 1st overall '91
8. S.Young (SF '95) 1st overall in supplemental for TB
9. M. Rypien (Was '92) 6th RD '86
10. Hoestetler (NYG '91) 3rd Rd '84

In the last 15 SB, only 10 QB's have played and lost
1. Mcnabb (Phi '05) 2nd Pick '99
2. Delhomme (Car '04) undrafted
3. Gannon (Oak '03) 4th rd. '98
4. K. Collins (NY '01) 1st rd. 5th pick '95 by Carolina
5. S.McNair (Tenn '00) 3rd overall '95
6. C.Chandler (ATL '99) 3rd rd. '88
7. Bledsoe (NE '97) 1st overall '93
8. N. O'Donnell (Pitt '96) 3rd Rd '87
9. S. Humphries (SD '95) 6th RD '88
10. J. Kelly (4 w/ Buf '94-91) 14th overall '83

2 QB won a SB and lost a SB
1. Warner lost in '02
2. favre lost in '98

So Looking at past results you have to take the following inferences about the champions:
1. Brady- steal in the late rounds, good drafting plus a little luck because no one knew Brady would be this good, especially so quickly. But NE defense was one of the best if not the best in all of their wins.
2. B. Johnson- 9th Rounder. Top Defense in the league
3. T. Dilfer with Baltimore. Might have been the best defense ever assembled.
Was a first round draft pick but by another team.
4. K. Warner. Undrafted...good defense..prolific offensive system whcih featured future HOF in Faulk as well as a great OL and Holt and Bruce.
5. Elway. Top draft pick by another team. But took him around 15 years to win his first and that was mainly due to emergence of T.Davis and a strong defense.
6. Favre- 2nd rounder...took him 6 years to win
7. Aikman- 1st overall pick...great defense....one of the best OL in history and surrounded by HOF in E.Smith and Irvin and dangerous weapons in Alvin Harper, Jay Novacek, and Moose Johnson (dynasty)
8. S. Young- 1st overall in supplemental draft. Great defense. great offensive weapons.
9. Mark Rypien- 6th RD
10. Hostetler- 3rd rd...took him 6 years to win.

Of the losers:
40% were first round picks- McNair, McNabb, Jim Kelly, Bledsoe
out of 15 SB played- a little under 50% had 1st round QB
1 was 1st overall
1 was second overall
1 was 5th pick
1 was 14th pick overall.

Of the winners:
40% were first round pick- Aikman, Young, Elway, and Dilfer
40% of the total SB were won with 1st round picks
3 were #1 overall, 1 was #6

Here are the first RD QB since '91
'91
16th- Dan McGwire
24th- Todd Marrinovich
'92
6th- Klinger
24th- Tommy Maddox
'93
1st- Bledsoe
2nd-Mirer
'94
3rd- Heath Shuler
6th- trent Dilfer
'95
3rd-McNair
5th. K. Collins
'96
NONE
'97
26th- Jim Drunkenmiller
'98
1st- Peyton Manning
2nd- Ryan Leaf
'99
1st- Tim Couch
2nd-D.McNabb
3rd-A. Smith
11th-D. Culppepper
12th-C. McNown
'00
18th- Pennington
'01
1st-Vick
'02
1st- Carr
3rd- Harrington
32nd- P. Ramsey
'03
1st- Palmer
7th-Leftwhich
17th- Boller
22nd- Grossman
'04
1st- E.manning
4th- P Rivers
11th-Roethlisberger
22nd- Losman
'05
1st- A. Smith
24th- A.Rodgers
25th- J. Campbell

From '91 to 2000 there were 19 QB taken in the 1st RD.
57% of them are no longer in the league
only 2 have won SB, Dilfer with a different team, and K. Collins with a different team.
a total have 5 have played in a SB

Now the number can be skewed in upcoming years if Bledsoe wins with Dallas which is not likley but possible, Collins could but wont, Manning, McNabb and Culpper have the best shot, Obviously givig Manning the best shot since MCNabb and Culpepper coming off injuries, getting older, and dont have great teams to play for.

You cant really judge the 2000 class and above but there is a good chance that Vick, C.Palmer, E.Mannning, Leftwhich and Roethlisberger will at least play in a SB in their career. I would say it unlikley Pennington, Carr, Harrington, Ramsey, Losman or Boller will be the starting QB on a SB team. To ealry to judge the '05 class, Rivers you cant really tell yet because of his situation, and same with Grossman given his injuries but you always have a chance when your defense is that good.

Now looking at some of the better starting QB in the league today and where they were drafted ( no order):
1 D. Brees 2nd round '01
2. Marc Bulger 6th round '00
3. Aaron brooks (i think he sucks but you gotta list him) 4th '99
4. Hasselback- 6th rd '98
5. Griese- 3rd '98
6. Plummer- 2nd rd. '97
7. T. Green 8th RD '93
8. M Brunell 5th RD '93

Backups likely to start somewhere at sometime (no order)
1. Matt Schaub 3rd '03
2. Chris Simms 3rd '03
3. David Garrard 4th '02

AND THE MORAL OF THE STORY IS...........
Dolphins do not select a QB in the first. The percentages are terrible for QB takin in the 1st round and are even worse once you get past the top 5. The most information i took from doing this study was all of the teams that one a SB had great defenses. Especially recently with the NE, TB, and Baltimore D's.
Saint Louis won with a great offensive system whcih Warner fit perfectly into. Elway, Favre and Aikman are HOF but 2 were #1 overall picks. Rypien and Hostetler were late round picks with who played in with good defenses.

If the Dolphins want to win, they need to first sure up the defense and fill in some gaps in the OL. If you honeslty look at the team as a whole. Theh are not far away, but at the same time, our window period right now is getting thin with aging players in JT, Kevin Carter, V.Holliday, and Z. Thomas. On offense we have plenty of young weapons...Mcmichael, Chambers, Booker, R. Brown, Welker, and R. Williams. We have one of the best RB combo's in the league, we have a one of the best receiving TE in the game, and a game-breaking WR in Chambers.

Our greatest needs are OT, DT, OLB and DBs
Why first round wish list goes as follows in no particular order but we must come away one of these players which will most likley happen.
I prefer Defense first:
1. Michael Huff
2. Jimmy Willimas
3. Ngata
4. Chad Greenway
5. DeMeco Ryans
or another top pick who drops (there is always one)

If none are available:
1. Winston Justice
2. Eric Winston
3. Jon Scott

2nd Rd.
1. Gabe Watson
2. AJ Nicholson
3. Kelly Jennings
4. Andrew Whitworth
5. jeremy Trueblood
6. Ryan O'Callaghan
7. Rocky McIntosh
8. Orien Harris
9. Antonio Cromartie
10. Derek Hagan

I would love for the fins to trade down and pick up more second round picks since I think there is a lot of value in the second round this year fr our needs.

love to hear some commentary on my homework.

23Dolphins34
01-17-2006, 12:51 AM
Good thorough job and nice work. Can't disagree with much you said, I agree about not drafting QB in the 1st. Drafting a defensive player or a LT should be the direction for the 1st round.

Boik14
01-17-2006, 12:53 AM
I posted something similar about mid way through the season and got reamed for it. Expect the same from the majority who think a qb in rd 1 is the answer because "OMFG Peyton, Big Ben, Duante, Carson and McNabb are so bleepin good" even with a combined 0 rings and 1 SB appearance. And thats despite the success and failure rate at the qb position in rd 1 being the 2nd highest to wr.

People dont realize now you can win the SB just by having a bigtime, playmaking D and a QB who simply doesnt make mistakes with a strong run game.

Not to mention its 10x more cap efficient because with QB being the highest paid position and 1st rd qb's making ridiculous sums despite being unproven you simply lose out even when you win. 1st rd players have to contribute right away. You can have a 3rd or 4th rd QB sit and learn for a year or two at a fraction of the cost you would have that 1st rd qb sitting and learning anyway. All that cap space in the meantime goes to waste.

Also K Collins didnt win a SB, his NYG got trounced by the Ravens.

Oh and as far as what you list under warner...Holt, Pace, and Bruce are likely HOFERS with Faulk. Bruce has numerous Pro bowls and is regarded as a top 3 wr over the past decade. Holt is the only player ever with more then 2 1400 yard seasons (hes got 6 straight, i believe this year he fell short of 7). Pace is a perrenial all pro.

Danny
01-17-2006, 01:16 AM
Alright, I did my homework so listen up. I think there is clear evidence here as to why the Phins should not draft a QB at 16 and especially not in the first round.

In the last 15 super bowls, there are been a total of 10 QB's to win the SB
1. Brady (3 '05, '04, '02 w/ NE) 6th RD 2000
2. B. Johnson (TB '03) 9th RD.
3. Trent Dilfer (Balt '01) 6th Pick in 1st round '94
4. K.Warner (Stl '00) Undrafted
5. Elway (2 w/ Den '98,'99) #1 overall in '83 for the Baltimore Colts
6. Favre (GB '97) 2nd round 1991
7. Aikman (3 w/ Dallas '96, '94,'93) 1st overall '91
8. S.Young (SF '95) 1st overall in supplemental for TB
9. M. Rypien (Was '92) 6th RD '86
10. Hoestetler (NYG '91) 3rd Rd '84

In the last 15 SB, only 10 QB's have played and lost
1. Mcnabb (Phi '05) 2nd Pick '99
2. Delhomme (Car '04) undrafted
3. Gannon (Oak '03) 4th rd. '98
4. K. Collins (NY '01) 1st rd. 5th pick '95 by Carolina
5. S.McNair (Tenn '00) 3rd overall '95
6. C.Chandler (ATL '99) 3rd rd. '88
7. Bledsoe (NE '97) 1st overall '93
8. N. O'Donnell (Pitt '96) 3rd Rd '87
9. S. Humphries (SD '95) 6th RD '88
10. J. Kelly (4 w/ Buf '94-91) 14th overall '83

2 QB won a SB and lost a SB
1. Warner lost in '02
2. favre lost in '98

So Looking at past results you have to take the following inferences about the champions:
1. Brady- steal in the late rounds, good drafting plus a little luck because no one knew Brady would be this good, especially so quickly. But NE defense was one of the best if not the best in all of their wins.
2. B. Johnson- 9th Rounder. Top Defense in the league
3. T. Dilfer with Baltimore. Might have been the best defense ever assembled.
Was a first round draft pick but by another team.
4. K. Warner. Undrafted...good defense..prolific offensive system whcih featured future HOF in Faulk as well as a great OL and Holt and Bruce.
5. Elway. Top draft pick by another team. But took him around 15 years to win his first and that was mainly due to emergence of T.Davis and a strong defense.
6. Favre- 2nd rounder...took him 6 years to win
7. Aikman- 1st overall pick...great defense....one of the best OL in history and surrounded by HOF in E.Smith and Irvin and dangerous weapons in Alvin Harper, Jay Novacek, and Moose Johnson (dynasty)
8. S. Young- 1st overall in supplemental draft. Great defense. great offensive weapons.
9. Mark Rypien- 6th RD
10. Hostetler- 3rd rd...took him 6 years to win.

Of the losers:
40% were first round picks- McNair, McNabb, Jim Kelly, Bledsoe
out of 15 SB played- a little under 50% had 1st round QB
1 was 1st overall
1 was second overall
1 was 5th pick
1 was 14th pick overall.

Of the winners:
40% were first round pick- Aikman, Young, Elway, and Dilfer
40% of the total SB were won with 1st round picks
3 were #1 overall, 1 was #6

Here are the first RD QB since '91
'91
16th- Dan McGwire
24th- Todd Marrinovich
'92
6th- Klinger
24th- Tommy Maddox
'93
1st- Bledsoe
2nd-Mirer
'94
3rd- Heath Shuler
6th- trent Dilfer
'95
3rd-McNair
5th. K. Collins
'96
NONE
'97
26th- Jim Drunkenmiller
'98
1st- Peyton Manning
2nd- Ryan Leaf
'99
1st- Tim Couch
2nd-D.McNabb
3rd-A. Smith
11th-D. Culppepper
12th-C. McNown
'00
18th- Pennington
'01
1st-Vick
'02
1st- Carr
3rd- Harrington
32nd- P. Ramsey
'03
1st- Palmer
7th-Leftwhich
17th- Boller
22nd- Grossman
'04
1st- E.manning
4th- P Rivers
11th-Roethlisberger
22nd- Losman
'05
1st- A. Smith
24th- A.Rodgers
25th- J. Campbell

From '91 to 2000 there were 19 QB taken in the 1st RD.
57% of them are no longer in the league
only 2 have won SB, Dilfer with a different team, and K. Collins with a different team.
a total have 5 have played in a SB

Now the number can be skewed in upcoming years if Bledsoe wins with Dallas which is not likley but possible, Collins could but wont, Manning, McNabb and Culpper have the best shot, Obviously givig Manning the best shot since MCNabb and Culpepper coming off injuries, getting older, and dont have great teams to play for.

You cant really judge the 2000 class and above but there is a good chance that Vick, C.Palmer, E.Mannning, Leftwhich and Roethlisberger will at least play in a SB in their career. I would say it unlikley Pennington, Carr, Harrington, Ramsey, Losman or Boller will be the starting QB on a SB team. To ealry to judge the '05 class, Rivers you cant really tell yet because of his situation, and same with Grossman given his injuries but you always have a chance when your defense is that good.

Now looking at some of the better starting QB in the league today and where they were drafted ( no order):
1 D. Brees 2nd round '01
2. Marc Bulger 6th round '00
3. Aaron brooks (i think he sucks but you gotta list him) 4th '99
4. Hasselback- 6th rd '98
5. Griese- 3rd '98
6. Plummer- 2nd rd. '97
7. T. Green 8th RD '93
8. M Brunell 5th RD '93

Backups likely to start somewhere at sometime (no order)
1. Matt Schaub 3rd '03
2. Chris Simms 3rd '03
3. David Garrard 4th '02

AND THE MORAL OF THE STORY IS...........
Dolphins do not select a QB in the first. The percentages are terrible for QB takin in the 1st round and are even worse once you get past the top 5. The most information i took from doing this study was all of the teams that one a SB had great defenses. Especially recently with the NE, TB, and Baltimore D's.
Saint Louis won with a great offensive system whcih Warner fit perfectly into. Elway, Favre and Aikman are HOF but 2 were #1 overall picks. Rypien and Hostetler were late round picks with who played in with good defenses.

If the Dolphins want to win, they need to first sure up the defense and fill in some gaps in the OL. If you honeslty look at the team as a whole. Theh are not far away, but at the same time, our window period right now is getting thin with aging players in JT, Kevin Carter, V.Holliday, and Z. Thomas. On offense we have plenty of young weapons...Mcmichael, Chambers, Booker, R. Brown, Welker, and R. Williams. We have one of the best RB combo's in the league, we have a one of the best receiving TE in the game, and a game-breaking WR in Chambers.

Our greatest needs are OT, DT, OLB and DBs
Why first round wish list goes as follows in no particular order but we must come away one of these players which will most likley happen.
I prefer Defense first:
1. Michael Huff
2. Jimmy Willimas
3. Ngata
4. Chad Greenway
5. DeMeco Ryans
or another top pick who drops (there is always one)

If none are available:
1. Winston Justice
2. Eric Winston
3. Jon Scott

2nd Rd.
1. Gabe Watson
2. AJ Nicholson
3. Kelly Jennings
4. Andrew Whitworth
5. jeremy Trueblood
6. Ryan O'Callaghan
7. Rocky McIntosh
8. Orien Harris
9. Antonio Cromartie
10. Derek Hagan

I would love for the fins to trade down and pick up more second round picks since I think there is a lot of value in the second round this year fr our needs.

love to hear some commentary on my homework.
Very good job and I can see you put a lot of work and time into it.You also make some good points but of course every draft is different.I'm not gona cry if we don't take a QB with our top pick...in fact,I'm hoping Ngata will fall to us tho I doubt it.In the end,Nick knows what he's doind and I trust him.

Ozzy rules!!

paskerbrandon
01-17-2006, 01:35 AM
Wow... Nice Post... I agree.

Motion
01-17-2006, 01:41 AM
Nice research. But I got another fact for you. The last time Miami spent a 1st rounder on a QB, it turned out pretty well, wouldn't you agree?

I'd love to have Cutler, but I also know Saban and Mueller know their stuff and will do whats right for the team, they know we need a franchise QB, and they'll get one.

cowtowndick
01-17-2006, 01:41 AM
not sure i really buy that reasoning - would you have passed on all the qb's drafted in the first round that turned out great? passed on marino? i'm sure you could put together almost the exact statistical analysis for rb's drafted in the first round. i think the key is the state of the team that drafted the qb, not necessarily only the qb in question; also, the depth of the draft at different positions. in our case, the qb position is one that is in desperate need of an infusion of talent. while you make the argument that you don't need a talented qb to win, only an efficient one, how many years have we watched a great defense being held back because the people running the team had that exact same philosophy? how happy have you been with the qb's running the offense since marino retired? how many high draft choices were spent on the defense? 'best player available' is the driving force behind many people's draft philosophy, but it must be tempered to a certain degree on team need. when our number 16 pick comes up, there will be a group of players that will likely grade out very close to one another; whichever one is held by the coaching staff to be the one who will make the greatest contribution to the team's success will be the one chosen. those of us who are advocating a qb in the first round feel exactly that way - that a qb will make a greater contribution to the long-term success of the team, more so than a cb, a safety or another lb. it's just our opinion, and like almost everyone on this site who has commented on the draft has stated, i will be TOTALLY STOKED with whatever direction coach saban and crew take.

SMadison29
01-17-2006, 01:51 AM
xpect the same from the majority who think a qb in rd 1 is the answer because "OMFG Peyton, Big Ben, Duante, Carson and McNabb are so bleepin good" even with a combined 0 rings and 1 SB appearance.

But other than Culpepper, they're not the reason their respective teams haven't made it to the Super Bowl & won the Super Bowl, it's been their defenses letting them down.

King Felix
01-17-2006, 01:54 AM
Wow... Nice Post... I agree.

jw......is ne1 else in ur group to get brooks???

Boik14
01-17-2006, 02:17 AM
But other than Culpepper, they're not the reason their respective teams haven't made it to the Super Bowl & won the Super Bowl, it's been their defenses letting them down.Ahhh but they are the reason their teams havent made the SB. Because of the ridiculous salaries those Qb's have those teams have hard a hard time filling all the needs. And when they finally did in the case of Manning and McNabb they played like poop (yesterday for manning and last years SB for Mcnabb). So all in all they arent the whole problem but they arent the solution either. Even with the Eagles great cap management a contract like McNabb's that takes up 1/6th of your cap year in and year out forces a revolving door and keep pushing veterans out.

sports24/7
01-17-2006, 02:27 AM
So basically we should ignore the fact that QB is our #1 need, and just pray that a Tom Brady falls into our lap, because not all of the past SB champs had #1 picks at QB? Stats like that don't really mean anything to me and I'm sure they don't mean much to coaches and GMs around the league.

Boik14
01-17-2006, 02:41 AM
So basically we should ignore the fact that QB is our #1 need, and just pray that a Tom Brady falls into our lap, because not all of the past SB champs had #1 picks at QB? Stats like that don't really mean anything to me and I'm sure they don't mean much to coaches and GMs around the league.Given Mueller's draft history with QB's with NO we should reach for Cutler a round early? The guy found Jake Delhomme garbage pick up day working the early bird shift (ok it was rd 7 but Jake was starting to have to think about alternatives), Marc Bulger in a stock broker firm (ok it was really rd 6 but Marc was getting that new career ready), and traded a 4th for a qb that was GB's 3rd stringer who's name was Aaron brooks (who I have never been a fan of but they did get 3 good years out of him before Haslett syndrome apparently set in and killed his aptitude to think.

Motion
01-17-2006, 02:47 AM
Given Mueller's draft history with QB's with NO we should reach for Cutler a round early? The guy found Jake Delhomme garbage pick up day working the early bird shift (ok it was rd 7 but Jake was starting to have to think about alternatives), Marc Bulger in a stock broker firm (ok it was really rd 6 but Marc was getting that new career ready), and traded a 4th for a qb that was GB's 3rd stringer who's name was Aaron brooks (who I have never been a fan of but they did get 3 good years out of him before Haslett syndrome apparently set in and killed his aptitude to think.

If anything this means we are in good hands. I like Cutler, but at this point after 6 years of QB mediocrity, I just want a young QB that we can groom into our franchise QB for at least the next 5+ years.

Jaj
01-17-2006, 03:12 AM
How many times must someone say that THERE IS NO SUPERBOWL FORMULA

sports24/7
01-17-2006, 03:58 AM
Given Mueller's draft history with QB's with NO we should reach for Cutler a round early? The guy found Jake Delhomme garbage pick up day working the early bird shift (ok it was rd 7 but Jake was starting to have to think about alternatives), Marc Bulger in a stock broker firm (ok it was really rd 6 but Marc was getting that new career ready), and traded a 4th for a qb that was GB's 3rd stringer who's name was Aaron brooks (who I have never been a fan of but they did get 3 good years out of him before Haslett syndrome apparently set in and killed his aptitude to think.
Taking Cutler at 16 is no where near a round early, but if that is truly what Saban and Mueller think then no they shouldn't. But if they feel he is going to be a good QB for us for years, then they need to make sure and grab him. The fact is that this team needs a QB and hoping that a late round QB pans out is not an option right now unless we can bring in another young talented QB. But I don't see that happening so, yes we need to address the QB situation early in the draft.

Motion
01-17-2006, 04:02 AM
Taking Cutler at 16 is no where near a round early, but if that is truly what Saban and Mueller think then no they shouldn't. But if they feel he is going to be a good QB for us for years, then they need to make sure and grab him. The fact is that this team needs a QB and hoping that a late round QB pans out is not an option right now unless we can bring in another young talented QB. But I don't see that happening so, yes we need to address the QB situation early in the draft.

Agree 100%

Dolfansal
01-17-2006, 08:17 AM
Taking Cutler at 16 is no where near a round early, but if that is truly what Saban and Mueller think then no they shouldn't. But if they feel he is going to be a good QB for us for years, then they need to make sure and grab him. The fact is that this team needs a QB and hoping that a late round QB pans out is not an option right now unless we can bring in another young talented QB. But I don't see that happening so, yes we need to address the QB situation early in the draft.

Check out the Big-board at draft daddy. Get Cutler in here.

http://www.draftdaddy.com/prospects/reset.cfm


I guess saban should find out what the super bowl coaches eat for breakfast every day if he wants to go to the super bowl.

Didn't we try to do what "other teams" have done to get to the super bowl in the wanny years. We had a good, fast defense, a running game and a sub par QB. Were exactly did that get us. We became the laughing stock of the NFL last year.

Motion
01-17-2006, 08:30 AM
Check out the Big-board at draft daddy. Get Cutler in here.

http://www.draftdaddy.com/prospects/reset.cfm


I guess saban should find out what the super bowl coaches eat for breakfast every day if he wants to go to the super bowl.

Didn't we try to do what "other teams" have done to get to the super bowl in the wanny years. We had a good, fast defense, a running game and a sub par QB. Were exactly did that get us. We became the laughing stock of the NFL last year.

That board is BS. I like Cutler and all but how in the hell is Michael Huff's stock dropping? He had an amazing Rose Bowl. What has Jimmy Williams done to drop his stock? How has Tye Hill soared all the sudden? VERY questionable source.

Finfanforever
01-17-2006, 08:41 AM
Nice post. A lot of work. However...this has NOTHING to do with 2006. If you want to make your research totally legit ...do it for ALL positions. I thinks you'll find the same kind of results. Example: for every Ryan Leaf...there will be a John Bosa, or Jackie Shipp. According to your research the Fins SHOULD HAVE PASSED on Drew Brees and selected Jamar Fletcher. No offense...But I fail to see the logic here. It's all about scouting! Some teams are good at it ...others suck at it.

SCall13
01-17-2006, 08:42 AM
Good thorough job and nice work. Can't disagree with much you said, I agree about not drafting QB in the 1st. Drafting a defensive player or a LT should be the direction for the 1st round.


I agree with you. I posted this before and got flamed by a slew of Jay Cutler lovers.

SCall13
01-17-2006, 08:43 AM
Alright, I did my homework so listen up. I think there is clear evidence here as to why the Phins should not draft a QB at 16 and especially not in the first round.

In the last 15 super bowls, there are been a total of 10 QB's to win the SB
1. Brady (3 '05, '04, '02 w/ NE) 6th RD 2000
2. B. Johnson (TB '03) 9th RD.
3. Trent Dilfer (Balt '01) 6th Pick in 1st round '94
4. K.Warner (Stl '00) Undrafted
5. Elway (2 w/ Den '98,'99) #1 overall in '83 for the Baltimore Colts
6. Favre (GB '97) 2nd round 1991
7. Aikman (3 w/ Dallas '96, '94,'93) 1st overall '91
8. S.Young (SF '95) 1st overall in supplemental for TB
9. M. Rypien (Was '92) 6th RD '86
10. Hoestetler (NYG '91) 3rd Rd '84

In the last 15 SB, only 10 QB's have played and lost
1. Mcnabb (Phi '05) 2nd Pick '99
2. Delhomme (Car '04) undrafted
3. Gannon (Oak '03) 4th rd. '98
4. K. Collins (NY '01) 1st rd. 5th pick '95 by Carolina
5. S.McNair (Tenn '00) 3rd overall '95
6. C.Chandler (ATL '99) 3rd rd. '88
7. Bledsoe (NE '97) 1st overall '93
8. N. O'Donnell (Pitt '96) 3rd Rd '87
9. S. Humphries (SD '95) 6th RD '88
10. J. Kelly (4 w/ Buf '94-91) 14th overall '83

2 QB won a SB and lost a SB
1. Warner lost in '02
2. favre lost in '98

So Looking at past results you have to take the following inferences about the champions:
1. Brady- steal in the late rounds, good drafting plus a little luck because no one knew Brady would be this good, especially so quickly. But NE defense was one of the best if not the best in all of their wins.
2. B. Johnson- 9th Rounder. Top Defense in the league
3. T. Dilfer with Baltimore. Might have been the best defense ever assembled.
Was a first round draft pick but by another team.
4. K. Warner. Undrafted...good defense..prolific offensive system whcih featured future HOF in Faulk as well as a great OL and Holt and Bruce.
5. Elway. Top draft pick by another team. But took him around 15 years to win his first and that was mainly due to emergence of T.Davis and a strong defense.
6. Favre- 2nd rounder...took him 6 years to win
7. Aikman- 1st overall pick...great defense....one of the best OL in history and surrounded by HOF in E.Smith and Irvin and dangerous weapons in Alvin Harper, Jay Novacek, and Moose Johnson (dynasty)
8. S. Young- 1st overall in supplemental draft. Great defense. great offensive weapons.
9. Mark Rypien- 6th RD
10. Hostetler- 3rd rd...took him 6 years to win.

Of the losers:
40% were first round picks- McNair, McNabb, Jim Kelly, Bledsoe
out of 15 SB played- a little under 50% had 1st round QB
1 was 1st overall
1 was second overall
1 was 5th pick
1 was 14th pick overall.

Of the winners:
40% were first round pick- Aikman, Young, Elway, and Dilfer
40% of the total SB were won with 1st round picks
3 were #1 overall, 1 was #6

Here are the first RD QB since '91
'91
16th- Dan McGwire
24th- Todd Marrinovich
'92
6th- Klinger
24th- Tommy Maddox
'93
1st- Bledsoe
2nd-Mirer
'94
3rd- Heath Shuler
6th- trent Dilfer
'95
3rd-McNair
5th. K. Collins
'96
NONE
'97
26th- Jim Drunkenmiller
'98
1st- Peyton Manning
2nd- Ryan Leaf
'99
1st- Tim Couch
2nd-D.McNabb
3rd-A. Smith
11th-D. Culppepper
12th-C. McNown
'00
18th- Pennington
'01
1st-Vick
'02
1st- Carr
3rd- Harrington
32nd- P. Ramsey
'03
1st- Palmer
7th-Leftwhich
17th- Boller
22nd- Grossman
'04
1st- E.manning
4th- P Rivers
11th-Roethlisberger
22nd- Losman
'05
1st- A. Smith
24th- A.Rodgers
25th- J. Campbell

From '91 to 2000 there were 19 QB taken in the 1st RD.
57% of them are no longer in the league
only 2 have won SB, Dilfer with a different team, and K. Collins with a different team.
a total have 5 have played in a SB

Now the number can be skewed in upcoming years if Bledsoe wins with Dallas which is not likley but possible, Collins could but wont, Manning, McNabb and Culpper have the best shot, Obviously givig Manning the best shot since MCNabb and Culpepper coming off injuries, getting older, and dont have great teams to play for.

You cant really judge the 2000 class and above but there is a good chance that Vick, C.Palmer, E.Mannning, Leftwhich and Roethlisberger will at least play in a SB in their career. I would say it unlikley Pennington, Carr, Harrington, Ramsey, Losman or Boller will be the starting QB on a SB team. To ealry to judge the '05 class, Rivers you cant really tell yet because of his situation, and same with Grossman given his injuries but you always have a chance when your defense is that good.

Now looking at some of the better starting QB in the league today and where they were drafted ( no order):
1 D. Brees 2nd round '01
2. Marc Bulger 6th round '00
3. Aaron brooks (i think he sucks but you gotta list him) 4th '99
4. Hasselback- 6th rd '98
5. Griese- 3rd '98
6. Plummer- 2nd rd. '97
7. T. Green 8th RD '93
8. M Brunell 5th RD '93

Backups likely to start somewhere at sometime (no order)
1. Matt Schaub 3rd '03
2. Chris Simms 3rd '03
3. David Garrard 4th '02

AND THE MORAL OF THE STORY IS...........
Dolphins do not select a QB in the first. The percentages are terrible for QB takin in the 1st round and are even worse once you get past the top 5. The most information i took from doing this study was all of the teams that one a SB had great defenses. Especially recently with the NE, TB, and Baltimore D's.
Saint Louis won with a great offensive system whcih Warner fit perfectly into. Elway, Favre and Aikman are HOF but 2 were #1 overall picks. Rypien and Hostetler were late round picks with who played in with good defenses.

If the Dolphins want to win, they need to first sure up the defense and fill in some gaps in the OL. If you honeslty look at the team as a whole. Theh are not far away, but at the same time, our window period right now is getting thin with aging players in JT, Kevin Carter, V.Holliday, and Z. Thomas. On offense we have plenty of young weapons...Mcmichael, Chambers, Booker, R. Brown, Welker, and R. Williams. We have one of the best RB combo's in the league, we have a one of the best receiving TE in the game, and a game-breaking WR in Chambers.

Our greatest needs are OT, DT, OLB and DBs
Why first round wish list goes as follows in no particular order but we must come away one of these players which will most likley happen.
I prefer Defense first:
1. Michael Huff
2. Jimmy Willimas
3. Ngata
4. Chad Greenway
5. DeMeco Ryans
or another top pick who drops (there is always one)

If none are available:
1. Winston Justice
2. Eric Winston
3. Jon Scott

2nd Rd.
1. Gabe Watson
2. AJ Nicholson
3. Kelly Jennings
4. Andrew Whitworth
5. jeremy Trueblood
6. Ryan O'Callaghan
7. Rocky McIntosh
8. Orien Harris
9. Antonio Cromartie
10. Derek Hagan

I would love for the fins to trade down and pick up more second round picks since I think there is a lot of value in the second round this year fr our needs.

love to hear some commentary on my homework.

Good post. Nice research. I agree with you.

Motion
01-17-2006, 08:43 AM
I agree with you. I posted this before and got flamed by a slew of Jay Cutler lovers.

Whats your answer to our QB issue?

Finfanforever
01-17-2006, 08:55 AM
Whats your answer to our QB issue?


To hell with the QB position! Gus is our "Dan Marino" he surely will lead us to the SUPER BOWL!!! :sidelol:

Finfanforever
01-17-2006, 08:56 AM
Whats your answer to our QB issue?

How's Jay Fiedler these days?:rolleyes:

Motion
01-17-2006, 09:03 AM
How's Jay Fiedler these days?:rolleyes:

:confused: WTF?

finfansince72
01-17-2006, 09:06 AM
Thanks for doing the research but it really is pretty much meaningless. You take the highest rated player at the position you are at in the draft. If Cutler is that highly rated on Saban's board he's taking him and I have no questions about it. If not he won't. You don't draft scared because some other Qb was a bust and you don't pass up legit talent because Brady was a late round pick. You scout the players, rate them as you see them, take them as they are available. Saban and Co. know what they are doing.
You could use a similar formula that you used to justify this post with any position. Look at how many good Rb's that there are taken outside the 1st round, does that mean we should have passed on Ronnie? No, thats idiotic.
The salary stuff is nonsense also, all first rounders make good money, we didnt get a 'non-Qb' discount on Ronnie did we? And once a Qb starts, proves he is good, he gets paid, you can't be cheap about the Qb position.
The Qb position must be upgraded in the offseason, its not optional. If we have Gus starting and a 5th round pick grooming we will be watching the playoffs once again. We have some other holes to fill but guess what? We have caproom and other draft picks, funny aint it?

BlueFin
01-17-2006, 09:10 AM
Alright, I did my homework so listen up. I think there is clear evidence here as to why the Phins should not draft a QB at 16 and especially not in the first round.

In the last 15 super bowls, there are been a total of 10 QB's to win the SB
1. Brady (3 '05, '04, '02 w/ NE) 6th RD 2000
2. B. Johnson (TB '03) 9th RD.
3. Trent Dilfer (Balt '01) 6th Pick in 1st round '94
4. K.Warner (Stl '00) Undrafted
5. Elway (2 w/ Den '98,'99) #1 overall in '83 for the Baltimore Colts
6. Favre (GB '97) 2nd round 1991
7. Aikman (3 w/ Dallas '96, '94,'93) 1st overall '91
8. S.Young (SF '95) 1st overall in supplemental for TB
9. M. Rypien (Was '92) 6th RD '86
10. Hoestetler (NYG '91) 3rd Rd '84

In the last 15 SB, only 10 QB's have played and lost
1. Mcnabb (Phi '05) 2nd Pick '99
2. Delhomme (Car '04) undrafted
3. Gannon (Oak '03) 4th rd. '98
4. K. Collins (NY '01) 1st rd. 5th pick '95 by Carolina
5. S.McNair (Tenn '00) 3rd overall '95
6. C.Chandler (ATL '99) 3rd rd. '88
7. Bledsoe (NE '97) 1st overall '93
8. N. O'Donnell (Pitt '96) 3rd Rd '87
9. S. Humphries (SD '95) 6th RD '88
10. J. Kelly (4 w/ Buf '94-91) 14th overall '83

2 QB won a SB and lost a SB
1. Warner lost in '02
2. favre lost in '98

So Looking at past results you have to take the following inferences about the champions:
1. Brady- steal in the late rounds, good drafting plus a little luck because no one knew Brady would be this good, especially so quickly. But NE defense was one of the best if not the best in all of their wins.
2. B. Johnson- 9th Rounder. Top Defense in the league
3. T. Dilfer with Baltimore. Might have been the best defense ever assembled.
Was a first round draft pick but by another team.
4. K. Warner. Undrafted...good defense..prolific offensive system whcih featured future HOF in Faulk as well as a great OL and Holt and Bruce.
5. Elway. Top draft pick by another team. But took him around 15 years to win his first and that was mainly due to emergence of T.Davis and a strong defense.
6. Favre- 2nd rounder...took him 6 years to win
7. Aikman- 1st overall pick...great defense....one of the best OL in history and surrounded by HOF in E.Smith and Irvin and dangerous weapons in Alvin Harper, Jay Novacek, and Moose Johnson (dynasty)
8. S. Young- 1st overall in supplemental draft. Great defense. great offensive weapons.
9. Mark Rypien- 6th RD
10. Hostetler- 3rd rd...took him 6 years to win.

Of the losers:
40% were first round picks- McNair, McNabb, Jim Kelly, Bledsoe
out of 15 SB played- a little under 50% had 1st round QB
1 was 1st overall
1 was second overall
1 was 5th pick
1 was 14th pick overall.

Of the winners:
40% were first round pick- Aikman, Young, Elway, and Dilfer
40% of the total SB were won with 1st round picks
3 were #1 overall, 1 was #6

Here are the first RD QB since '91
'91
16th- Dan McGwire
24th- Todd Marrinovich
'92
6th- Klinger
24th- Tommy Maddox
'93
1st- Bledsoe
2nd-Mirer
'94
3rd- Heath Shuler
6th- trent Dilfer
'95
3rd-McNair
5th. K. Collins
'96
NONE
'97
26th- Jim Drunkenmiller
'98
1st- Peyton Manning
2nd- Ryan Leaf
'99
1st- Tim Couch
2nd-D.McNabb
3rd-A. Smith
11th-D. Culppepper
12th-C. McNown
'00
18th- Pennington
'01
1st-Vick
'02
1st- Carr
3rd- Harrington
32nd- P. Ramsey
'03
1st- Palmer
7th-Leftwhich
17th- Boller
22nd- Grossman
'04
1st- E.manning
4th- P Rivers
11th-Roethlisberger
22nd- Losman
'05
1st- A. Smith
24th- A.Rodgers
25th- J. Campbell

From '91 to 2000 there were 19 QB taken in the 1st RD.
57% of them are no longer in the league
only 2 have won SB, Dilfer with a different team, and K. Collins with a different team.
a total have 5 have played in a SB

Now the number can be skewed in upcoming years if Bledsoe wins with Dallas which is not likley but possible, Collins could but wont, Manning, McNabb and Culpper have the best shot, Obviously givig Manning the best shot since MCNabb and Culpepper coming off injuries, getting older, and dont have great teams to play for.

You cant really judge the 2000 class and above but there is a good chance that Vick, C.Palmer, E.Mannning, Leftwhich and Roethlisberger will at least play in a SB in their career. I would say it unlikley Pennington, Carr, Harrington, Ramsey, Losman or Boller will be the starting QB on a SB team. To ealry to judge the '05 class, Rivers you cant really tell yet because of his situation, and same with Grossman given his injuries but you always have a chance when your defense is that good.

Now looking at some of the better starting QB in the league today and where they were drafted ( no order):
1 D. Brees 2nd round '01
2. Marc Bulger 6th round '00
3. Aaron brooks (i think he sucks but you gotta list him) 4th '99
4. Hasselback- 6th rd '98
5. Griese- 3rd '98
6. Plummer- 2nd rd. '97
7. T. Green 8th RD '93
8. M Brunell 5th RD '93

Backups likely to start somewhere at sometime (no order)
1. Matt Schaub 3rd '03
2. Chris Simms 3rd '03
3. David Garrard 4th '02

AND THE MORAL OF THE STORY IS...........
Dolphins do not select a QB in the first. The percentages are terrible for QB takin in the 1st round and are even worse once you get past the top 5. The most information i took from doing this study was all of the teams that one a SB had great defenses. Especially recently with the NE, TB, and Baltimore D's.
Saint Louis won with a great offensive system whcih Warner fit perfectly into. Elway, Favre and Aikman are HOF but 2 were #1 overall picks. Rypien and Hostetler were late round picks with who played in with good defenses.

If the Dolphins want to win, they need to first sure up the defense and fill in some gaps in the OL. If you honeslty look at the team as a whole. Theh are not far away, but at the same time, our window period right now is getting thin with aging players in JT, Kevin Carter, V.Holliday, and Z. Thomas. On offense we have plenty of young weapons...Mcmichael, Chambers, Booker, R. Brown, Welker, and R. Williams. We have one of the best RB combo's in the league, we have a one of the best receiving TE in the game, and a game-breaking WR in Chambers.

Our greatest needs are OT, DT, OLB and DBs
Why first round wish list goes as follows in no particular order but we must come away one of these players which will most likley happen.
I prefer Defense first:
1. Michael Huff
2. Jimmy Willimas
3. Ngata
4. Chad Greenway
5. DeMeco Ryans
or another top pick who drops (there is always one)

If none are available:
1. Winston Justice
2. Eric Winston
3. Jon Scott

2nd Rd.
1. Gabe Watson
2. AJ Nicholson
3. Kelly Jennings
4. Andrew Whitworth
5. jeremy Trueblood
6. Ryan O'Callaghan
7. Rocky McIntosh
8. Orien Harris
9. Antonio Cromartie
10. Derek Hagan

I would love for the fins to trade down and pick up more second round picks since I think there is a lot of value in the second round this year fr our needs.

love to hear some commentary on my homework.

Sorry, but you have to start from Super Bowl 1 to get an accurate number, I did a thread on this over a year ago. The fact is..........your very best chance of finding a Superbowl QB is in the first round.

http://www.finheaven.com/boardvb2/showthread.php?t=62274

Also, bear in mind I wrote this prior to the last Superbowl, also note since I did this I found one error, Earl Morrall, winner of Superbowl 5 was also a 1st round pick.

The facts bear out your odds are better of finding that Championship QB in the first round, than they are in all the other rounds, and undrafted free agency, and the other football leagues combined.

BlueFin
01-17-2006, 09:12 AM
Also, bear in mind, the rules have been shifted towards offense, so while defense is still extremely important, the days of winning with mediocre Quarterbacking are probably over.

You simply have to be able to score enough points.

Finfanforever
01-17-2006, 09:22 AM
:confused: WTF?

Speedrush...you KNOW how I feel about the QB position. That statement is dripping with sarcasm! I am trying to get some hard-heads to think. I know...it's like re-arranging the furniture on the Titanic. What's the use??

SCall13
01-17-2006, 09:50 AM
Whats your answer to our QB issue?


I don't know what Saban plans on doing. I'm just throwing my opinion out there about what Saban will do with our 1st round pick. MY OPINION is Saban will go with a pick he feels is more of a sure thing in a position of need. Cutler is an attractive option but Saban has stated he would look for value and a safer pick early in the draft because of the possibility of being wrong. QB is always the popular pick, but it isn't always the right, best choice. As badly as we need a QB and as attractive as Cutler is, is he a sure thing? Saban may pick him. I don't know. Noone knows. But I feel that this team has too many needs to take a risk in the 16th spot. Saban may even choose to trade down to accumulate more picks.

SCall13
01-17-2006, 09:53 AM
Thanks for doing the research but it really is pretty much meaningless. You take the highest rated player at the position you are at in the draft. If Cutler is that highly rated on Saban's board he's taking him and I have no questions about it. If not he won't. You don't draft scared because some other Qb was a bust and you don't pass up legit talent because Brady was a late round pick. You scout the players, rate them as you see them, take them as they are available. Saban and Co. know what they are doing.
You could use a similar formula that you used to justify this post with any position. Look at how many good Rb's that there are taken outside the 1st round, does that mean we should have passed on Ronnie? No, thats idiotic.
The salary stuff is nonsense also, all first rounders make good money, we didnt get a 'non-Qb' discount on Ronnie did we? And once a Qb starts, proves he is good, he gets paid, you can't be cheap about the Qb position.
The Qb position must be upgraded in the offseason, its not optional. If we have Gus starting and a 5th round pick grooming we will be watching the playoffs once again. We have some other holes to fill but guess what? We have caproom and other draft picks, funny aint it?


I agree with this post. IF Saban views Cutler to be the best pick at 16, he takes him. IF he views someone else at a position of need the best pick, he takes him. It's really that simple.

General Tso
01-17-2006, 10:14 AM
From your research it is now obvious why the Colts have yet to reach the Superbowl. Back in 1998 the Colts foolishly drafted Peyton Manning (first round QB... yuck) instead of going with one of the non-QBs like Andre Wadsworth, Curtis Enis, Grant Wistrom, Kyle Turley, Duane Starks or Greg Ellis.

Back to reality....

Try your research on any other position. Start with RB. You'll find the exact same thing (if not even more skewed towards avoiding that position in the first round).

One reason why: there's been a lot of first round picks over the last 20 years (around 600), but only 11 of the 32 teams have won a Superbowl.

You draft the top rated player on your board, only considering need if you've got 2-3 players graded equally and need serves as a tie breaker. You don't avoid drafting a QB at the top of your board simply because some team hit the jackpot in the 6th round a few years ago.

ckparrothead
01-17-2006, 11:20 AM
Alright, I did my homework so listen up. I think there is clear evidence here as to why the Phins should not draft a QB at 16 and especially not in the first round.

In the last 15 super bowls, there are been a total of 10 QB's to win the SB
1. Brady (3 '05, '04, '02 w/ NE) 6th RD 2000
2. B. Johnson (TB '03) 9th RD.
3. Trent Dilfer (Balt '01) 6th Pick in 1st round '94
4. K.Warner (Stl '00) Undrafted
5. Elway (2 w/ Den '98,'99) #1 overall in '83 for the Baltimore Colts
6. Favre (GB '97) 2nd round 1991
7. Aikman (3 w/ Dallas '96, '94,'93) 1st overall '91
8. S.Young (SF '95) 1st overall in supplemental for TB
9. M. Rypien (Was '92) 6th RD '86
10. Hoestetler (NYG '91) 3rd Rd '84

In the last 15 SB, only 10 QB's have played and lost
1. Mcnabb (Phi '05) 2nd Pick '99
2. Delhomme (Car '04) undrafted
3. Gannon (Oak '03) 4th rd. '98
4. K. Collins (NY '01) 1st rd. 5th pick '95 by Carolina
5. S.McNair (Tenn '00) 3rd overall '95
6. C.Chandler (ATL '99) 3rd rd. '88
7. Bledsoe (NE '97) 1st overall '93
8. N. O'Donnell (Pitt '96) 3rd Rd '87
9. S. Humphries (SD '95) 6th RD '88
10. J. Kelly (4 w/ Buf '94-91) 14th overall '83

2 QB won a SB and lost a SB
1. Warner lost in '02
2. favre lost in '98

So Looking at past results you have to take the following inferences about the champions:
1. Brady- steal in the late rounds, good drafting plus a little luck because no one knew Brady would be this good, especially so quickly. But NE defense was one of the best if not the best in all of their wins.
2. B. Johnson- 9th Rounder. Top Defense in the league
3. T. Dilfer with Baltimore. Might have been the best defense ever assembled.
Was a first round draft pick but by another team.
4. K. Warner. Undrafted...good defense..prolific offensive system whcih featured future HOF in Faulk as well as a great OL and Holt and Bruce.
5. Elway. Top draft pick by another team. But took him around 15 years to win his first and that was mainly due to emergence of T.Davis and a strong defense.
6. Favre- 2nd rounder...took him 6 years to win
7. Aikman- 1st overall pick...great defense....one of the best OL in history and surrounded by HOF in E.Smith and Irvin and dangerous weapons in Alvin Harper, Jay Novacek, and Moose Johnson (dynasty)
8. S. Young- 1st overall in supplemental draft. Great defense. great offensive weapons.
9. Mark Rypien- 6th RD
10. Hostetler- 3rd rd...took him 6 years to win.

Of the losers:
40% were first round picks- McNair, McNabb, Jim Kelly, Bledsoe
out of 15 SB played- a little under 50% had 1st round QB
1 was 1st overall
1 was second overall
1 was 5th pick
1 was 14th pick overall.

Of the winners:
40% were first round pick- Aikman, Young, Elway, and Dilfer
40% of the total SB were won with 1st round picks
3 were #1 overall, 1 was #6

Here are the first RD QB since '91
'91
16th- Dan McGwire
24th- Todd Marrinovich
'92
6th- Klinger
24th- Tommy Maddox
'93
1st- Bledsoe
2nd-Mirer
'94
3rd- Heath Shuler
6th- trent Dilfer
'95
3rd-McNair
5th. K. Collins
'96
NONE
'97
26th- Jim Drunkenmiller
'98
1st- Peyton Manning
2nd- Ryan Leaf
'99
1st- Tim Couch
2nd-D.McNabb
3rd-A. Smith
11th-D. Culppepper
12th-C. McNown
'00
18th- Pennington
'01
1st-Vick
'02
1st- Carr
3rd- Harrington
32nd- P. Ramsey
'03
1st- Palmer
7th-Leftwhich
17th- Boller
22nd- Grossman
'04
1st- E.manning
4th- P Rivers
11th-Roethlisberger
22nd- Losman
'05
1st- A. Smith
24th- A.Rodgers
25th- J. Campbell

From '91 to 2000 there were 19 QB taken in the 1st RD.
57% of them are no longer in the league
only 2 have won SB, Dilfer with a different team, and K. Collins with a different team.
a total have 5 have played in a SB

Now the number can be skewed in upcoming years if Bledsoe wins with Dallas which is not likley but possible, Collins could but wont, Manning, McNabb and Culpper have the best shot, Obviously givig Manning the best shot since MCNabb and Culpepper coming off injuries, getting older, and dont have great teams to play for.

You cant really judge the 2000 class and above but there is a good chance that Vick, C.Palmer, E.Mannning, Leftwhich and Roethlisberger will at least play in a SB in their career. I would say it unlikley Pennington, Carr, Harrington, Ramsey, Losman or Boller will be the starting QB on a SB team. To ealry to judge the '05 class, Rivers you cant really tell yet because of his situation, and same with Grossman given his injuries but you always have a chance when your defense is that good.

Now looking at some of the better starting QB in the league today and where they were drafted ( no order):
1 D. Brees 2nd round '01
2. Marc Bulger 6th round '00
3. Aaron brooks (i think he sucks but you gotta list him) 4th '99
4. Hasselback- 6th rd '98
5. Griese- 3rd '98
6. Plummer- 2nd rd. '97
7. T. Green 8th RD '93
8. M Brunell 5th RD '93

Backups likely to start somewhere at sometime (no order)
1. Matt Schaub 3rd '03
2. Chris Simms 3rd '03
3. David Garrard 4th '02

AND THE MORAL OF THE STORY IS...........
Dolphins do not select a QB in the first. The percentages are terrible for QB takin in the 1st round and are even worse once you get past the top 5. The most information i took from doing this study was all of the teams that one a SB had great defenses. Especially recently with the NE, TB, and Baltimore D's.
Saint Louis won with a great offensive system whcih Warner fit perfectly into. Elway, Favre and Aikman are HOF but 2 were #1 overall picks. Rypien and Hostetler were late round picks with who played in with good defenses.

If the Dolphins want to win, they need to first sure up the defense and fill in some gaps in the OL. If you honeslty look at the team as a whole. Theh are not far away, but at the same time, our window period right now is getting thin with aging players in JT, Kevin Carter, V.Holliday, and Z. Thomas. On offense we have plenty of young weapons...Mcmichael, Chambers, Booker, R. Brown, Welker, and R. Williams. We have one of the best RB combo's in the league, we have a one of the best receiving TE in the game, and a game-breaking WR in Chambers.

Our greatest needs are OT, DT, OLB and DBs
Why first round wish list goes as follows in no particular order but we must come away one of these players which will most likley happen.
I prefer Defense first:
1. Michael Huff
2. Jimmy Willimas
3. Ngata
4. Chad Greenway
5. DeMeco Ryans
or another top pick who drops (there is always one)

If none are available:
1. Winston Justice
2. Eric Winston
3. Jon Scott

2nd Rd.
1. Gabe Watson
2. AJ Nicholson
3. Kelly Jennings
4. Andrew Whitworth
5. jeremy Trueblood
6. Ryan O'Callaghan
7. Rocky McIntosh
8. Orien Harris
9. Antonio Cromartie
10. Derek Hagan

I would love for the fins to trade down and pick up more second round picks since I think there is a lot of value in the second round this year fr our needs.

love to hear some commentary on my homework.

You're a little late to the party. We've seen the argument against drafting a first round QB, now let's see the argument in FAVOR of it...

http://www.billsbuzz.com/billsbuzz/pages/articles/articles2005/05-12-13-myth-buster.htm

(my article for the AFC East Report)

Phishstix
01-17-2006, 11:39 AM
I agree with this post. IF Saban views Cutler to be the best pick at 16, he takes him. IF he views someone else at a position of need the best pick, he takes him. It's really that simple.

same here, although the dolphins do have to address the qb situation at some point. if cutler is saban's guy, great. if he is not, i'll assume that saban had a good reason why he wasn't.

and wow, i just read that article ck posted. i didn't realize that 1st round qbs had fared so well in terms of super bowl succes.

Mile High Fin
01-17-2006, 01:31 PM
From your research it is now obvious why the Colts have yet to reach the Superbowl. Back in 1998 the Colts foolishly drafted Peyton Manning (first round QB... yuck) instead of going with one of the non-QBs like Andre Wadsworth, Curtis Enis, Grant Wistrom, Kyle Turley, Duane Starks or Greg Ellis.

Back to reality....

Try your research on any other position. Start with RB. You'll find the exact same thing (if not even more skewed towards avoiding that position in the first round).

One reason why: there's been a lot of first round picks over the last 20 years (around 600), but only 11 of the 32 teams have won a Superbowl.

You draft the top rated player on your board, only considering need if you've got 2-3 players graded equally and need serves as a tie breaker. You don't avoid drafting a QB at the top of your board simply because some team hit the jackpot in the 6th round a few years ago.


:yeahthat:
Everyone read this!
It is correct!

fishypete
01-17-2006, 01:40 PM
Save the lists....a great defense can beat a great QB....A great QB without talent surrounding him...won't win. A good QB with great talent can win.

Give me a good QB surrounded with great talent and a great defense and I'll show you a winner. Griese....no name defense....Superbowl's.

sports24/7
01-17-2006, 01:55 PM
Save the lists....a great defense can beat a great QB....A great QB without talent surrounding him...won't win. A good QB with great talent can win.

Give me a good QB surrounded with great talent and a great defense and I'll show you a winner. Griese....no name defense....Superbowl's.
Griese is a HOFer and there is only one defensive player from that team in the hall. So that kind of goes against your point.

But why can't we have a great defense (we already have a great start, just need a few peices that can be picked up after round 1 and in FA), great supporting cast on offense (Chambers, Brown, McMichael) and a great QB (Cutler)? Is there something wrong with that. Would we be negatively affected by bringing in a good QB? That is essentially what this argument is saying.

cowtowndick
01-17-2006, 01:59 PM
Save the lists....a great defense can beat a great QB....A great QB without talent surrounding him...won't win. A good QB with great talent can win.

Give me a good QB surrounded with great talent and a great defense and I'll show you a winner. Griese....no name defense....Superbowl's.

no disrespect intended (because i agree with almost every post you make) but that was then, this is now. of the four teams left this year, you could argue that only one is there BECAUSE of their defense. delhomme (more accurately smith and delhomme) outplayed the bear defense, hasselbeck outplayed the redskins. this year we had a good qb but the nature of the game, the quality of the defenses, made his performance mediocre at best. qb's need to be more talented than they used to be.

fishypete
01-17-2006, 02:19 PM
Griese is a HOFer and there is only one defensive player from that team in the hall. So that kind of goes against your point.

But why can't we have a great defense (we already have a great start, just need a few peices that can be picked up after round 1 and in FA), great supporting cast on offense (Chambers, Brown, McMichael) and a great QB (Cutler)? Is there something wrong with that. Would we be negatively affected by bringing in a good QB? That is essentially what this argument is saying.

Griese is a HOF'er because he played in a system that protected him....he won a superbowl and only had to throw 11-12 times the whole game. If not for the defense and running game....the Dolphins wouldn't have won...and that you take to the bank. They didn't get the nickname..."no name" for nothing...and they still to this day aren't getting the respect they are due.

Today we have a few pieces...but are weak at receiver and Tight end...we lose Chambers or McMichael...and it's bare bones time...we need more talent at both positons.

fishypete
01-17-2006, 02:28 PM
no disrespect intended (because i agree with almost every post you make) but that was then, this is now. of the four teams left this year, you could argue that only one is there BECAUSE of their defense. delhomme (more accurately smith and delhomme) outplayed the bear defense, hasselbeck outplayed the redskins. this year we had a good qb but the nature of the game, the quality of the defenses, made his performance mediocre at best. qb's need to be more talented than they used to be.

If you think about the QB's still playing...three out of the four weren't what one would say was a franchise type QB's...in fact all three moved on to different teams....the only exception is Roethlisberger...and I don't think anyone would say he could carry the Steelers...as Marino or Elway did..when they played on their teams.

Total defense;

Carolina 3rd best

Pittsburgh 4th best

Broncos 15th best

Seattle 17th best

Thats why I'm picking Carolina and Pittsburgh to go to the Superbowl.

rafael
01-17-2006, 02:37 PM
I hope the days of searching for bargain QBs left with Wanny. Statistically, it is less likely to succeed. Of course, it still comes down to good drafting, but 1st rd QBs have more skills or production than those rated as later rd picks. (duh!) So if you're looking for a guy who will have the nec. NFL skills and be productive on the NFL level, it makes more sense to choose among the more skilled, more productive group than from the lesser skilled, less productive group. (again duh!)

And the money thing isn't an issue either. There isn't a huge difference between 1st rd QB and other 1st rd psitions in terms of pay. Each pick is pretty much slotted. QBs end up at the top of the slot more often, but they're in the same general range. Also, QBs are no less of a sure thing than most other positions. Statistically, they're in the middle (OL are most often successful, while WRs are successful the least often). So if you're going to spend about the same amount of money no matter what position and the QB position is no less likely to succeed than the other positions it makes the most sense to spend the money on the most important position.

That doesn't mean you reach for a QB, but fortunately at 16 we won't be reaching for any of the top 3 QBs. Those posters that are saying that Cutler is a 2nd rd pick are either basing their projections on outdated sources or a just doing a bad job of predicting where Cutler will go. Most experts realize that Cutler is a 1st rd pick right now. My concern is that he'll show too well at the workout(s) and Senior Bowl and that somebody will take him before we can.

cowtowndick
01-17-2006, 02:42 PM
If you think about the QB's still playing...three out of the four weren't what one would say was a franchise type QB's...in fact all three moved on to different teams....the only exception is Roethlisberger...and I don't think anyone would say he could carry the Steelers...as Marino or Elway did..when they played on their teams.

Total defense;

Carolina 3rd best

Pittsburgh 4th best

Broncos 15th best

Seattle 17th best

Thats why I'm picking Carolina and Pittsburgh to go to the Superbowl.

curious as to where those four teams ranked in total offense - i can't find anything in the regular season. also, of the four remaining teams, 15th and 17th in total defense is great? i'm not sure i necessarily disagree with your picks for the super bowl, but of the four remaining teams, great defenses are not necessarily the common denominator.

sports24/7
01-17-2006, 03:07 PM
Griese is a HOF'er because he played in a system that protected him....he won a superbowl and only had to throw 11-12 times the whole game. If not for the defense and running game....the Dolphins wouldn't have won...and that you take to the bank. They didn't get the nickname..."no name" for nothing...and they still to this day aren't getting the respect they are due.

Today we have a few pieces...but are weak at receiver and Tight end...we lose Chambers or McMichael...and it's bare bones time...we need more talent at both positons.
Regardless of how many times he had to throw the ball he is still one of the best QBs in NFL history. The point is when he threw the ball he made it count. Obviously we wouldn't have won without the running game and defense, but who is to say we still would have won without great QB play from him and Morall. The point is you try to improve at every position and QB is still the single most important position on the field. If you have the chance to get a great QB you do so.

I disagree that we are weak at WR and TE. At WR we have Chambers who grew this year and should be even better with a QB that doesn't make him dive for the ball every other pass. Booker really came on at the end of the year as well and is a good #2. If he is gone we will need to bring in someone else or draft someone. Wes Welker has proven to be a very clutch 3rd reciever. Are they an elite WR corps? No. But they are far from weak. With some spruceing up they could become a very good corps.

At TE we have one of the top TE's in the league in McMike. Diamond proved to be a nice target in a two TE formation and we still might have something with Holmes and Johnson. How many teams in the league have two very good TE's? Not many. So by having a great TE and a solid TE probably puts us up there in TE duos in the NFL. You could take almost any team and say if they lose their top TE or WR they are in trouble. If Pittburgh lost Ward or Miller they would be in trouble. If the GIants lost Shockey or Burress they would be in trouble. TE is the last of our needs and WR isn't a priority right now either.

djfresh47
01-17-2006, 03:23 PM
I believe the percentage of Qb's taken after the 1st rd who are successful is very low. If Cutler is the guy Saban wants, then i'm all for it. What I do not wanna see is drafting a Qb in the 5th or 6th rd, then proclaimed the Qb of the "future." It's all relative, and I remember awhile back someone making an arguement that teams don't draft Qb's to be backups, well i'll pull up the Adrian McPherson situation in New Orleans. Alot of people wanted Saban to take him, New Orleans used a 5th rd pick on him, and I doubt he'll ever get an opportunity. Most people have New Orleans taking Leinart in mock drafts, and I think they'll take him, so that 5th rd pick used on McPherson to me is a waste. I think teams should invest a high draft pick in a Qb, because at the very least they'll get an opportunity, while late rd Qb's probably won't.

rafael
01-17-2006, 03:30 PM
Griese is a HOF'er because he played in a system that protected him....he won a superbowl and only had to throw 11-12 times the whole game. If not for the defense and running game....the Dolphins wouldn't have won...and that you take to the bank. They didn't get the nickname..."no name" for nothing...and they still to this day aren't getting the respect they are due.

Today we have a few pieces...but are weak at receiver and Tight end...we lose Chambers or McMichael...and it's bare bones time...we need more talent at both positons.

You're not suggesting that getting backups at less important positions (wr and TE) is a higher priority than getting a starter at a more important position (QB), are you?

fins5423
01-17-2006, 03:54 PM
im sticking with Jay Cutler in the 1st round

PhinstiGator
01-17-2006, 03:59 PM
I hope the days of searching for bargain QBs left with Wanny...
It's also about not over-paying for a QB. Was Alex Smith really worth the 1st pick and 50 million price tag?

To me, both Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers should have been 3rd rounders. Why did their value get so inflated? Loosing teams will always reach for that hero QB...and shoot themselves in the foot in the process.

1st and 2nd tier QB's still need time to develop and there are no guarantees. Reaching for a non productive player will drag a team down fast. If sure talent falls...you take it. Roethlisberger is an good example of talent falling and producing. Yet, he is the exception and not the rule.

Saban's philosophy is to draft a difference maker in the first round. Whether it's on defense or offense, that draft pick will need to be on the field and not holding a clip-board for 3 years.

rafael
01-17-2006, 04:10 PM
It's also about not over-paying for a QB. Was Alex Smith really worth the 1st pick and 50 million price tag?

To me, both Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers should have been 3rd rounders. Why did their value get so inflated? Loosing teams will always reach for that hero QB...and shoot themselves in the foot in the process.

1st and 2nd tier QB's still need time to develop and there are no guarantees. Reaching for a non productive player will drag a team down fast. If sure talent falls...you take it. Roethlisberger is an good example of talent falling and producing. Yet, he is the exception and not the rule.

Saban's philosophy is to draft a difference maker in the first round. Whether it's on defense or offense, that draft pick will need to be on the field and not holding a clip-board for 3 years.

Well it still comes down to good drafting. Reaching is never smart. That being said, the biggest difference maker is almost always a QB. It doesn't matter if it takes a few years. When you're building a team for long-term success (as Saban has said he is) you start with the QB.

BTW IMO Alex Smith was worth the price tag and will be a very good QB for SF.

SCall13
01-17-2006, 04:10 PM
It's also about not over-paying for a QB. Was Alex Smith really worth the 1st pick and 50 million price tag?

To me, both Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers should have been 3rd rounders. Why did their value get so inflated? Loosing teams will always reach for that hero QB...and shoot themselves in the foot in the process.

1st and 2nd tier QB's still need time to develop and there are no guarantees. Reaching for a non productive player will drag a team down fast. If sure talent falls...you take it. Roethlisberger is an good example of talent falling and producing. Yet, he is the exception and not the rule.

Saban's philosophy is to draft a difference maker in the first round. Whether it's on defense or offense, that draft pick will need to be on the field and not holding a clip-board for 3 years.

Good post. Right on.

Oboy
01-17-2006, 04:34 PM
Wow, a lot of work and effort in this thread...

The key is you have to TRUST your evaluation process at ALL positions. Mueller does have a decent track record at evaluating QB's. Saban has been real good at Defensive players. I would hope they can come to an agreement on merging the two lists.

Qb's can be a bust just like any other player. The key is still to take the BPA (minus the few positions that are real strong on your team-eg RB) IF Cutler is there and the highest rated player left on the Phins board, then you take him. IF NOT, then you grab the next player that fits there.

I personally would LOVE to have a QB that would solidify that position for us for the next 10 or so years.

NEW-ERA-PHIN
01-17-2006, 04:40 PM
Yes, the chances of picking a franchise QB are temendous for a team. But i would very curious to know how many of those QB were taken in the top 10 or even top 5 overall and how many were drafted after pick 10.

The point is...yes, if we were picking #1-5 and had an opportunity for Leinart or Young, then you pull the trigger. But sitting at #16, Jay Cutler may not prove to be the most value at that pick considering we have some glaring needs and their will be very good playuers available at those positions. If we needed a WR or a QB, i would go with Cutler over Hagan. But when you need OL, DL, LB, CB, WR, and a QB, then you have to look for the best value. If we pick Cutler and he doesnt pan out, then Saban better have a really frickin good draft to save this franchise. Because mistakes in first round kill teams for years! Just look at Carey, Fletcher, John Avery, etc.

sports24/7
01-17-2006, 06:22 PM
It's also about not over-paying for a QB. Was Alex Smith really worth the 1st pick and 50 million price tag?

We don't know yet. Alex Smith didn't even get a full year with no talent around him. It is still way too early to pass final judgement on this kid.

As far as reaching for a QB I agree to some extent. If you have a second round grade on Cutler then you obviously don't take him at 16, but if you have him as maybe the 20th best player in the draft, but feel he will be a good QB for years to come, he fills your greatest need and you need to take him. I think when its all said and done Cutler will be rated right around where we pick or higher and if he is there will be a Miami Dolphin.

Boik14
01-17-2006, 11:49 PM
The fact is that this team needs a QB and hoping that a late round QB pans out is not an option right now unless we can bring in another young talented QB. But I don't see that happening so, yes we need to address the QB situation early in the draft. Is it really just hoping with Mueller's track record of drafting QB's. If it was only 1 you could chalk it up to being lucky. If it was only 2 late rd picks he invested he would be on to something. When it reaches 3 out of 3 success rate the man knows something me and you dont know. He has a skill, he will find us a good QB for cheap. I truly believe that

Boik14
01-18-2006, 12:00 AM
You're a little late to the party. We've seen the argument against drafting a first round QB, now let's see the argument in FAVOR of it...

http://www.billsbuzz.com/billsbuzz/pages/articles/articles2005/05-12-13-myth-buster.htm

(my article for the AFC East Report) That article does mean something so I wont chalk it up to being worthless at all, but it doesnt take into account the ways in which the salary cap changed the way you have to build a football team. The eagles are a perfect example. They invest a ton of money in McNabb. They win every 10-12 games almost every year. But they have a revolving door of players too that keeps pushing older vetarans that you need to win out the door. And with youth comes mistakes. This is as opposed to the Pats who have Brady at a cap friendly contract that is can be adapted if their situation changes.

Another point to be made is that your article doesnt talk about how investing all that money in a 1st rd qb hurts your ability to build a team. For one you have the fact that 1st round picks need to contribute right away and you simply cant do that with a qb. Cant throw them into the fire or you risk their confidence getting shattered and hampering their development. These guys need a good 4 years between watching and learning the pro game to finally live up to that contract. All while a ton of cap space goes to waste and the window closes. By drafting a QB later you dont handicap the salary cap as much and you dont miss the opportunity to develop a nice prospect.

Before the cap era I would have probably agreed with that piece a lot more. now the cap has to be managed efficiently and drafting a QB in rd 1 hinders a team's ability to do so.

You can talk about the ability to find qb's later on and how hard it is but the fact is we have a guy who found 3 good ones on day 2 picks. The fact is that even if you draft a qb anywhere after rd 1 you still risk a lot less monetarily and you can still build a team without worrying about why a 20 million dollar investment (or signing bonus depending on where in rd 1 hes drafted) is sitting on the bench doing nothing.

No disrespect meant CK, i think your a good poster but I think your off base on that.

cowtowndick
01-18-2006, 12:17 AM
It's also about not over-paying for a QB. Was Alex Smith really worth the 1st pick and 50 million price tag?

To me, both Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers should have been 3rd rounders. Why did their value get so inflated? Loosing teams will always reach for that hero QB...and shoot themselves in the foot in the process.

1st and 2nd tier QB's still need time to develop and there are no guarantees. Reaching for a non productive player will drag a team down fast. If sure talent falls...you take it. Roethlisberger is an good example of talent falling and producing. Yet, he is the exception and not the rule.

Saban's philosophy is to draft a difference maker in the first round. Whether it's on defense or offense, that draft pick will need to be on the field and not holding a clip-board for 3 years.

Regardless of where you draft a qb, they need time to develop. Carson Palmer carried a clipboard for his entire rookie year, as did Steve McNair and many other qb's. What differentiates players is potential, and drafting is absolutely an inexact science. But it sounds like you don't advocate drafting a qb. And it's a little difficult to say Smith and Rodgers should have been third round picks, they haven't really played.

A lot of people on this thread seem to say that you shouldn't draft a qb in the first two rounds because if he busts, it's a huge loss. Let's say, for arguments sake, Cutler is there at #16. By your reasoning, you should pass on him, too risky - better to risk less by picking a qb (whoever he is) in the third or later. Cutler sits on the bench (as does your third round or whatever guy), then in 2007, he takes over for whatever team drafts him and is a hit. Don't you think that this website would be filled with people calling Saban/Mueller boneheads for passing on Cutler? Absolutely it would...If Saban/Mueller have a name or two up their sleeves that they think they can get in the later rounds (keeping in mind that we have no pick in the fifth or sixth round), then more power to them and I would be, like everyone here, crazy with joy. Whatever they do, I'm totally cool with - as long as we get a qb this offseason that will be a great qb for years. Another Bulger or Delhomme or Brady or Hasselbeck or Green (that is, a top ten qb at the end of the draft) - perfect. But if it's a Tee Martin or Jesse Palmer or Kevin Daft or Joe Germaine or Brock Huard or insert the name of the many, many other mid to late round picks that ended up in the CFL or worse, then we'll be screaming for someone's head this time next year...

cowtowndick
01-18-2006, 12:31 AM
... For one you have the fact that 1st round picks need to contribute right away and you simply cant do that with a qb. Cant throw them into the fire or you risk their confidence getting shattered and hampering their development. These guys need a good 4 years between watching and learning the pro game to finally live up to that contract. All while a ton of cap space goes to waste and the window closes. By drafting a QB later you dont handicap the salary cap as much and you dont miss the opportunity to develop a nice prospect...

You can talk about the ability to find qb's later on and how hard it is but the fact is we have a guy who found 3 good ones on day 2 picks. The fact is that even if you draft a qb anywhere after rd 1 you still risk a lot less monetarily and you can still build a team without worrying about why a 20 million dollar investment (or signing bonus depending on where in rd 1 hes drafted) is sitting on the bench doing nothing....



1) Using Brady as an example of what's possible is almost useless - he's a once in a lifetime draft pick. 6th round? Ridiculously good fortune...
2) There are many examples of qb's sitting one year and stepping in. There are many examples of rookies at every position not being the playmakers they later become. Depends upon the team, depends upon the rookie.
3) You could argue that this year is a perfect year to draft a qb in round one or two, and have them sit for a year, then step in. We have a serviceable qb under contract (one that yes, needs to be cheaper), so the rookie can watch and learn. Also, there is great depth at other positions in this draft - the dropoff at qb is dramatic.
4) Mueller has found three good qb's on day two picks, but when Aaron Brooks gets cut, are you in favour of bringing him in? Probably not? So how good was he? And is it me, but doesn't Mark Bulger miss two or three (at least) games every year, and aren't the Rams in a good position almost every year until he gets hurt, then the backup comes in and they go 1 and 3 without him?

Boik14
01-18-2006, 12:42 AM
1) Using Brady as an example of what's possible is almost useless - he's a once in a lifetime draft pick. 6th round? Ridiculously good fortune...
2) There are many examples of qb's sitting one year and stepping in. There are many examples of rookies at every position not being the playmakers they later become. Depends upon the team, depends upon the rookie.
3) You could argue that this year is a perfect year to draft a qb in round one or two, and have them sit for a year, then step in. We have a serviceable qb under contract (one that yes, needs to be cheaper), so the rookie can watch and learn. Also, there is great depth at other positions in this draft - the dropoff at qb is dramatic.
4) Mueller has found three good qb's on day two picks, but when Aaron Brooks gets cut, are you in favour of bringing him in? Probably not? So how good was he? And is it me, but doesn't Mark Bulger miss two or three (at least) games every year, and aren't the Rams in a good position almost every year until he gets hurt, then the backup comes in and they go 1 and 3 without him?
1) Brady isnt the only example of a non 1st rd qb having success. What about gannon, Delhomme, Green, B. Johnson, even going back to Montana as a 3rd rd qb? There are plenty of others.
2) very true.
3) So you advocate reaching for a player based on need like some idiot GM does every year and then picks a player that he shouldnt have picked so early? Reaching for a player because they play a position of need is probably the worst philosphy.
4) As far as Brooks, I cant stand the guy cause hes regressed. He was very good for 3 years in NO but I dont know what happened to him. Would I take a flier on him at a cheap rate to be a backup and get his stuff back together? ya i would cause the reward outweighs the risk (again if its like a million or something on a 1 year deal) As far as Bulger he may miss 2-3 games a year but how many pro bowls? Hes going to miss games when your idiot HC (Martz in his case) has you throwing 50x a game and the interior of your OL cant pass block worth a darn.

sports24/7
01-18-2006, 12:46 AM
Is it really just hoping with Mueller's track record of drafting QB's. If it was only 1 you could chalk it up to being lucky. If it was only 2 late rd picks he invested he would be on to something. When it reaches 3 out of 3 success rate the man knows something me and you dont know. He has a skill, he will find us a good QB for cheap. I truly believe that
What exactly is his track record? I know he traded for Brooks which doesn't seem like too great of a find right now. He became the GM of the Saints in 2000 which was already after Jake Delhomme was drafted. Even still no matter how good his track record is taking a QB later on is a much greater risk than taking one in the first. Jay Cutler has the potential to be a very good QB. Why wouldn't we take a guy with that big of an upside at the one position we need more than any other on the field?

Motion
01-18-2006, 12:47 AM
Save the lists....a great defense can beat a great QB....A great QB without talent surrounding him...won't win. A good QB with great talent can win.

Give me a good QB surrounded with great talent and a great defense and I'll show you a winner. Griese....no name defense....Superbowl's.

Doesn't this go against everything you've said against Jay Cutler? You state the importantance of a strong supporting cast, yet you knock Cutler for not being able to win without one?

sports24/7
01-18-2006, 12:49 AM
Before the cap era I would have probably agreed with that piece a lot more. now the cap has to be managed efficiently and drafting a QB in rd 1 hinders a team's ability to do so.

You can talk about the ability to find qb's later on and how hard it is but the fact is we have a guy who found 3 good ones on day 2 picks. The fact is that even if you draft a qb anywhere after rd 1 you still risk a lot less monetarily and you can still build a team without worrying about why a 20 million dollar investment (or signing bonus depending on where in rd 1 hes drafted) is sitting on the bench doing nothing.

No disrespect meant CK, i think your a good poster but I think your off base on that.
That can be said about any position. Why risk paying a OLB, CB, or LT 1st round money if we can find one later on? That is the draft. You need to take some risks and be strong enough in your convictions that your player pans out.

Boik14
01-18-2006, 12:54 AM
That can be said about any position. Why risk paying a OLB, CB, or LT 1st round money if we can find one later on? That is the draft. You need to take some risks and be strong enough in your convictions that your player pans out. Agreed but the risk of failure on QB's is the 2nd highest of any position (wr being the 1st). Based on the risk of failure and the cost of the position you can reduce the risk of a wasted pick. I think that makes sense.

Motion
01-18-2006, 12:56 AM
Agreed but the risk of failure on QB's is the 2nd highest of any position (wr being the 1st). Based on the risk of failure and the cost of the position you can reduce the risk of a wasted pick. I think that makes sense.

But the risk/reward ratio is so much more magnified at the QB position.

sports24/7
01-18-2006, 01:00 AM
But the risk/reward ratio is so much more magnified at the QB position.
Exactly. If that risk pays off we will have a juggernaut offense for years to come. To me it seems like the risk is worth it.

Motion
01-18-2006, 01:00 AM
Exactly. If that risk pays off we will have a juggernaut offense for years to come. To me it seems like the risk is worth it.

+1

Boik14
01-18-2006, 01:05 AM
What exactly is his track record? I know he traded for Brooks which doesn't seem like too great of a find right now. He became the GM of the Saints in 2000 which was already after Jake Delhomme was drafted. Even still no matter how good his track record is taking a QB later on is a much greater risk than taking one in the first. Jay Cutler has the potential to be a very good QB. Why wouldn't we take a guy with that big of an upside at the one position we need more than any other on the field?Delhomme, was originally drafted as a 7th rd pick was signed as a FA (on the waiver wire) by Mueller during 2000, the same year Mueller drafted Bulger (before idiot Haslett cut him). Brooks he traded a 4th for (to GB) and gave them 2 pro bowls and 3 good season. How is that anything short of a great trade. You traded a depth pick for a guy who was a top 3 Qb in your conference. granted Brooks has fallen from grace but no matter how you turn the argument 2 pro bowls in 3 years is worth a 4th rd pick everytime especially when its a qb.

Second it can be argued that DB's and not QB is our biggest need. You can talk about Frerotte's Rating but ill dwell on actual results. 18 td/12 int. Compared to our secondary getting roasted like chicken the first half of the year.

While Cutler has potential, again it comes down to risk of failure and reaching for a guy 10-15 picks earlier then his ability says we should.

Boik14
01-18-2006, 01:07 AM
But the risk/reward ratio is so much more magnified at the QB position. I believe the Broncos were the last team to win a SB with something other than a marginal QB. Dilfer's the only 1st rd pick to win since then and he did it on a small contract with a different team who's carried his butt during 6 game sthe offense couldnt even score a TD. You win with D and great skill position players on offense and as long as you have a qb who doesnt turn it over youre golden.

Motion
01-18-2006, 01:09 AM
I believe the Broncos were the last team to win a SB with something other than a marginal QB. Dilfer's the only 1st rd pick to win since then and he did it on a small contract with a different team who's carried his butt during 6 game sthe offense couldnt even score a TD. You win with D and great skill position players on offense and as long as you have a qb who doesnt turn it over youre golden.

So basically what your saying is build up the defense more and we'll win the SB with Gus?




BTW, Did you see who Kiper had at pick 32 of his mock?

sports24/7
01-18-2006, 01:19 AM
Delhomme, was originally drafted as a 7th rd pick was signed as a FA (on the waiver wire) by Mueller during 2000, the same year Mueller drafted Bulger (before idiot Haslett cut him). Brooks he traded a 4th for (to GB) and gave them 2 pro bowls and 3 good season. How is that anything short of a great trade. You traded a depth pick for a guy who was a top 3 Qb in your conference. granted Brooks has fallen from grace but no matter how you turn the argument 2 pro bowls in 3 years is worth a 4th rd pick everytime especially when its a qb.

Second it can be argued that DB's and not QB is our biggest need. You can talk about Frerotte's Rating but ill dwell on actual results. 18 td/12 int. Compared to our secondary getting roasted like chicken the first half of the year.

While Cutler has potential, again it comes down to risk of failure and reaching for a guy 10-15 picks earlier then his ability says we should.
Either way no matter how good his track record is, you have a better chance of success with Cutler, Lienart, or Young than you do with Hackney, Croyle, and Whitehurst.

Boik14
01-18-2006, 01:20 AM
So basically what your saying is build up the defense more and we'll win the SB with Gus?




BTW, Did you see who Kiper had at pick 32 of his mock? Im saying if we found someone who was a slight improvement over Gus we could do it. Brady was a baby when he did it. Dilfer still stunk. Warner came off the streets and did it. 9th rd Brad Johnson did it. The key trait: a great D. Even Warner's Rams were extremely strong in +/- cause tehir D was top 5 in TO's forced and top 10 overall.

I havent seen Kiper's draft. Rarely read up on Kiper's picks anymore. What did you want me to see?

Boik14
01-18-2006, 01:23 AM
Either way no matter how good his track record is, you have a better chance of success with Cutler, Lienart, or Young than you do with Hackney, Croyle, and Whitehurst. I hate Hackney and Whitehurst. I never mentioned them for that reason. I think Young is going to be a colassal bust too but thats a matter of opinion right now til proven otherwise. And as far as Cutler goes, again I like his ability but hes a 2nd rd player. 16 is at least 12-15 picks too early. If we drop down and pick up extra picks Id say maybe.

sports24/7
01-18-2006, 01:23 AM
I believe the Broncos were the last team to win a SB with something other than a marginal QB. Dilfer's the only 1st rd pick to win since then and he did it on a small contract with a different team who's carried his butt during 6 game sthe offense couldnt even score a TD. You win with D and great skill position players on offense and as long as you have a qb who doesnt turn it over youre golden.
Thats not entirely true. The Pats don't win one title without Brady and Warner was more than a marginal QB for the Rams. They were not early draft picks, but were still good QBs. Their respective teams just got lucky that they found them. We can hope to get lucky and if not try again next year and so on leaving us very vulnerable, or we can make our best effort at getting a future Brady or Warner for our team with Cutler.

sports24/7
01-18-2006, 01:26 AM
I hate Hackney and Whitehurst. I never mentioned them for that reason. I think Young is going to be a colassal bust too but thats a matter of opinion right now til proven otherwise. And as far as Cutler goes, again I like his ability but hes a 2nd rd player. 16 is at least 12-15 picks too early. If we drop down and pick up extra picks Id say maybe.
I was just using their names as examples. A QB with a first round grade has a much better chance at success than a QB with a lower grade. Cutler will not be there in the second roun either. I don't really understand why exactly you value him so much lower than everyone else, but the truth is it doesn't matter what either of us think. It comes down to what Saban and Mueller think and if they think Cutler is our guy and he is there they will take him. If not they won't and hopefully they will have a plan on how to bring in a good QB.

Boik14
01-18-2006, 01:27 AM
Thats not entirely true. The Pats don't win one title without Brady and Warner was more than a marginal QB for the Rams. They were not early draft picks, but were still good QBs. Their respective teams just got lucky that they found them. We can hope to get lucky and if not try again next year and so on leaving us very vulnerable, or we can make our best effort at getting a future Brady or Warner for our team with Cutler. I never said the pats would have won without Brady or the rams would have won without warner. Just that they were supported by defenses ranging from great to very good. We can save cap money allowing us to build that D by drafting something other than a Qb in rd 1 which will kill our cap flexibility and our chances to sign a ton of depth and load up to avoid any potential injuries killing our chances.

Motion
01-18-2006, 01:29 AM
I havent seen Kiper's draft. Rarely read up on Kiper's picks anymore. What did you want me to see?

In regards to the little conversation we had the other day, he had Chad Jackson going to Seattle at #32. ;)

Boik14
01-18-2006, 01:29 AM
I was just using their names as examples. A QB with a first round grade has a much better chance at success than a QB with a lower grade. Cutler will not be there in the second roun either. I don't really understand why exactly you value him so much lower than everyone else, but the truth is it doesn't matter what either of us think. It comes down to what Saban and Mueller think and if they think Cutler is our guy and he is there they will take him. If not they won't and hopefully they will have a plan on how to bring in a good QB.It also comes at a much higher risk. We can debate this all night. You question my philosphy, I question yours. I dont care though cause mines been proven right based on the last decade.

I never said Cutler would be there in rd2. Mainly cause i know some qb needy team will reach for him in rd 1. That doesnt change the fact that his ability really says hes a 2nd rd pick What is so hard to understand? I dont value him lower than everyone else, everyone else just values him too highly.

At least we agree it comes down to saban and mueller. I dont doubt for a second they will shy off a qb in rd 1.

Motion
01-18-2006, 01:31 AM
I never said the pats would have won without Brady or the rams would have won without warner. Just that they were supported by defenses ranging from great to very good. We can save cap money allowing us to build that D by drafting something other than a Qb in rd 1 which will kill our cap flexibility and our chances to sign a ton of depth and load up to avoid any potential injuries killing our chances.

I totally see where your coming from but at the same time we're long overdue for a QB upgrade which I think should be top priority.

Boik14
01-18-2006, 01:31 AM
In regards to the little conversation we had the other day, he had Chad Jackson going to Seattle at #32. ;) He's been wrong before. But +1 for now. We'll see on draft day. Ill be at the draft to dictate exactly what happens and who gets picked where. :D

Motion
01-18-2006, 01:32 AM
He's been wrong before. But +1 for now. We'll see on draft day. Ill be at the draft to dictate exactly what happens and who gets picked where. :D

Yeah I know. Enjoy the draft!

Boik14
01-18-2006, 01:32 AM
I totally see where your coming from but at the same time we're long overdue for a QB upgrade which I think should be top priority. Thats fine. Its the way we should go about that upgrade we disagree about. Which is fine as long as whatever happens turns out good for the Phins. :dolphins:

personally I still think the D should be a priority.

Boik14
01-18-2006, 01:34 AM
Yeah I know. Enjoy the draft! Thanks I will.

Bet you didnt know it was because of me yelling from the upper level last year that we drafted Crowder. Ok well i dont think thats true but I was really yelling loud for Crowder. I was elated at that pick :cool:

rafael
01-18-2006, 01:36 AM
It also comes at a much higher risk. We can debate this all night. You question my philosphy, I question yours. I dont care though cause mines been proven right based on the last decade.

I never said Cutler would be there in rd2. Mainly cause i know some qb needy team will reach for him in rd 1. That doesnt change the fact that his ability really says hes a 2nd rd pick What is so hard to understand? I dont value him lower than everyone else, everyone else just values him too highly.

At least we agree it comes down to saban and mueller. I dont doubt for a second they will shy off a qb in rd 1.

Are you sure your name isn't Wannstedt?

Boik14
01-18-2006, 01:39 AM
Are you sure your name isn't Wannstedt? Im positive Mr Spielman

Motion
01-18-2006, 01:42 AM
Ok well i dont think thats true but I was really yelling loud for Crowder. I was elated at that pick :cool:

You and me both.

rafael
01-18-2006, 01:48 AM
Im positive Mr Spielman

Your philosophy of drafting defense and relying on a journeyman QB seems to mirror Wannstedt's. I'm not sure why my support for drafting Cutler in the first reminds you of Spielman.

Boik14
01-18-2006, 01:51 AM
Your philosophy of drafting defense and relying on a journeyman QB seems to mirror Wannstedt's. I'm not sure why my support for drafting Cutler in the first reminds you of Spielman. My support isnt for drafting a journeyman QB. The facts show that Mueller is capable of finding a good qb later on.

With regards to the spielman comment it was because you're willing to overpay to ensure you get a player you want. Even if the players price is inflated.

rafael
01-18-2006, 01:57 AM
My support isnt for drafting a journeyman QB. The facts show that Mueller is capable of finding a good qb later on.

With regards to the spielman comment it was because you're willing to overpay to ensure you get a player you want. Even if the players price is inflated.

Most experts have Cutler as a 1st rd pick. That's his market value. That's not overpaying.

Boik14
01-18-2006, 02:09 AM
Most experts have Cutler as a 1st rd pick. That's his market value. That's not overpaying. Most "experts" are wrong more then theyre right. Thats why theyre "experts" and not GM's. And if you read a lot of those "expert opinions" youd read that many of them call Cutler what he is " a 2nd rd pick who will go in rd 1 becuase of Qb needy teams." Just because hes going to go in rd 1 does make him a 1st rd talent. It's still overpaying and reaching.

rafael
01-18-2006, 02:36 AM
Most "experts" are wrong more then theyre right. Thats why theyre "experts" and not GM's. And if you read a lot of those "expert opinions" youd read that many of them call Cutler what he is " a 2nd rd pick who will go in rd 1 becuase of Qb needy teams." Just because hes going to go in rd 1 does make him a 1st rd talent. It's still overpaying and reaching.

So your saying the GMs are the smart ones not the experts, but they're the ones who are reaching by taking him in the first.

And no matter how many times you keep saying Cutler is a 2nd rd talent it doesn't mean you're right either.

Personally, I think it's clear that he's a 1st rd talent and since I've been tracking my own predictions I've been right far more often than I've been wrong (on QBs at least).

cowtowndick
01-18-2006, 02:41 AM
...3) So you advocate reaching for a player based on need like some idiot GM does every year and then picks a player that he shouldnt have picked so early? Reaching for a player because they play a position of need is probably the worst philosphy...


...no. i'm saying that between 13th overall and 20th overall (approximately), there's very little difference. you could possibly extend that to the end of the first round. i'm saying that if cutler (eg) is available at #16, chances are he's grouped together with a number of players that grade out approximately the same; with that in mind, imo, you draft cutler because that is the area of need for the team. if cutler, in the minds of saban/mueller, is no better than a mid-2nd round kinda guy, i say no - try to get him the second. not advocating a huge reach. also, i'm saying that if cutler is gone by #16, we definitely wait until later to draft a qb, because the next rated qb (either jacobs or croyle) is definitely a mid-2nd or even mid-3rd round kinda guy, and as much as i want a qb drafted this year, i certainly don't advocate burning a first round pick like that. the thing with cutler is that he has definitely risen on many of the respective draft/evaluation boards. not everyone is going to agree on his value, so whomever saban/mueller picks at #16, i'm ok with.

cowtowndick
01-18-2006, 02:48 AM
Most "experts" are wrong more then theyre right. Thats why theyre "experts" and not GM's. And if you read a lot of those "expert opinions" youd read that many of them call Cutler what he is " a 2nd rd pick who will go in rd 1 becuase of Qb needy teams." Just because hes going to go in rd 1 does make him a 1st rd talent. It's still overpaying and reaching.

...so there's gm's, then there's experts...then there's the rest of us. if the "experts" are wrong more than they're right, what does that make us? just fans with informed opinions. why don't we wait until the senior bowl (he's playing, right?). then, when he has a tiny exposure to nfl coaching, and he's surrounded by the best talent he's ever been around, let's see what he does. maybe we'll get a better idea what he's made of.

Boik14
01-18-2006, 02:59 AM
So your saying the GMs are the smart ones not the experts, but they're the ones who are reaching by taking him in the first.

And no matter how many times you keep saying Cutler is a 2nd rd talent it doesn't mean you're right either.

Personally, I think it's clear that he's a 1st rd talent and since I've been tracking my own predictions I've been right far more often than I've been wrong (on QBs at least).
- Im saying GM's > experts or else experts would be GM's. Experts are the ones that hpe a lot of players up to places in the draft where they dont deserve to be chosen. A Gm is only as good as the scouts and team employed around him.

- As far as Cutler, vice versa applies as well.

- As far QB's im sure youve been right. Ive seen your posts and agree with you frequently. However, Ive tracked my own predictions via spread sheet for the last 7 years since I really first became infatuated with the draft. And Ive been right more then Ive been wrong as well.

Boik14
01-18-2006, 03:02 AM
...no. i'm saying that between 13th overall and 20th overall (approximately), there's very little difference. you could possibly extend that to the end of the first round. i'm saying that if cutler (eg) is available at #16, chances are he's grouped together with a number of players that grade out approximately the same; with that in mind, imo, you draft cutler because that is the area of need for the team. if cutler, in the minds of saban/mueller, is no better than a mid-2nd round kinda guy, i say no - try to get him the second. not advocating a huge reach. also, i'm saying that if cutler is gone by #16, we definitely wait until later to draft a qb, because the next rated qb (either jacobs or croyle) is definitely a mid-2nd or even mid-3rd round kinda guy, and as much as i want a qb drafted this year, i certainly don't advocate burning a first round pick like that. the thing with cutler is that he has definitely risen on many of the respective draft/evaluation boards. not everyone is going to agree on his value, so whomever saban/mueller picks at #16, i'm ok with. As long as there's some logic behind it thats fine. Again, I may be in the minority but i dont agree on Cutler's draft project but we'll find out on draft day. Agree to disagree on that point. :dolphins:

cowtowndick
01-18-2006, 03:03 AM
As long as there's some logic behind it thats fine. Again, I may be in the minority but i dont agree on Cutler's draft project but we'll find out on draft day. Agree to disagree on that point. :dolphins:

agreed.

Boik14
01-18-2006, 03:13 AM
...so there's gm's, then there's experts...then there's the rest of us. if the "experts" are wrong more than they're right, what does that make us? just fans with informed opinions. why don't we wait until the senior bowl (he's playing, right?). then, when he has a tiny exposure to nfl coaching, and he's surrounded by the best talent he's ever been around, let's see what he does. maybe we'll get a better idea what he's made of. As far as Cutler and the senior bowl nothing is official yet and final rosters arent announced til the 22nd. As far as I know he is supposed to play though.

http://www.seniorbowl.com/2006/rosters.htm

Motion
01-18-2006, 03:20 AM
why don't we wait until the senior bowl (he's playing, right?). then, when he has a tiny exposure to nfl coaching, and he's surrounded by the best talent he's ever been around, let's see what he does. maybe we'll get a better idea what he's made of.

Can't wait!

BlueFin
01-18-2006, 08:58 AM
Save the lists....a great defense can beat a great QB....A great QB without talent surrounding him...won't win. A good QB with great talent can win.

Give me a good QB surrounded with great talent and a great defense and I'll show you a winner. Griese....no name defense....Superbowl's.

:sidelol: ............try BOB GRIESE-HALL OF FAMER, surrounded by a HALL OF FAME BACK-LARRY CSONKA, A HALL OF FAME WR -PAUL WARFIELD, HALL FAME O-LINEMAN LIKE JIM LANGER AND LARRY LITTLE and Bob Kuechenberg who is a finalist for the hall, and a great defense.

To call Bob Griese, who won the MVP of the league award in 1977, was selected to 6 Pro Bowls, and has his bust residing in CANTON, as you put it "a good quarterback" is the understatement of the year, just another flawed thought process by you Pete.

rafael
01-18-2006, 12:15 PM
-

- As far QB's im sure youve been right. Ive seen your posts and agree with you frequently. However, Ive tracked my own predictions via spread sheet for the last 7 years since I really first became infatuated with the draft. And Ive been right more then Ive been wrong as well.

I started tracking it about 7 years ago as well. I guess we'll see who's right this time. :)

BlueFin
01-18-2006, 01:44 PM
It is simply not an intelligent statement for anyone to make, that a team in need of a quarterback, should eliminate that position from draft possibility in round one.

Nick Saban would never say that, nor would any other Head Coach/GM worth his salt.

Impact players are impact players, they come from all positions. The facts bear out that there are busts at every position as well.

The fact that the majority of Superbowls have been won by 1st round pick quarterbacks just points out the obvious, that the best prospects are generally drafted the highest. Sure there will always be exceptions, players that slip thru the cracks, but Saban and Muellers job is too pick the best player available with every draft pick.

If that player happens to be a quarterback, he should be drafted no matter where you are picking.