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ckparrothead
03-08-2006, 03:14 PM
Hey guys just wanted to say that I crunched the numbers in ways that numbers should not be crunched (I'm an equity analyst, I'm use to it) and I've come up with some overall "athletic ratings" for the defensive backs unit.

I will say that there are 12 major factors going into this rating. Those factors are: Height, Weight, Bench Press, Vertical, Broad Jump, 10 yard split, 20 yard split, 40 yard split, Short Shuttle, Long Shuttle, 3 Cone Drill, and Participation. I did weight some figures, but my weightings are extremely modest...which makes each player's relative standing in each of the 12 categories nearly equal with each other in the construction of the rating. I gave SLIGHTLY extra weight to vertical jump, broad jump, 20-yard split, and 3-cone drill times.

For math wizards, I crunched the differences in the numbers until I came up with normalized, relative figures for each stat (for instance, player X's height divided by median group height). By normalized, what I mean is that once I got a column of relative stats, I adjusted the formulas until the standard deviation of each overall attribute column was approximately 6.1%. This all avoids skewness in any one direction because of the large differences in any one stat. For instance, the difference between a 1.55 10-yard split and 1.70 10-yard split is actually quite huge, but if you just stuffed it into the same equation with the difference between a 220 pound guy and 200 pound guy, without normalizing, a difference of 1 pound would negate the wide difference of the 10-yard split times.

The participation stat I added in because not everyone did every drill and for guys that didn't do a certain drill I inserted the median drill result for the unit so that I could still get an equation. That might not be exactly fair to the guys who participated, when you end up with 6 default median figures out of 20 possible measurements even though the guys might not have done the drill because they knew they'd be below median. Guys with lower than 11 out of 20 participation measurements, I didn't even include in the analysis...since they basically only weighed in then did no drills.

Here's the Top 25, out of a group of 52.

Rank....Pos.....Name.....School.......Rating
1 . DBS Jason Allen Tennessee 13.45
2 . DBC Derrick Martin Wyoming 13.13
3 . DBS Pat Watkins Florida State 13.05
4 . DBS Daniel Bullocks Nebraska 12.95
5 . DBC Tye Hill Clemson 12.93
6 . DBS Michael Huff Texas 12.93
7 . DBS Eric Smith Michigan State 12.89
8 . DBS Jarrad Page UCLA 12.78
9 . DBC Gerrick McPhearson Maryland 12.72
10 . DBC Antonio Cromartie Florida State 12.72
11 . DBS Antoine Bethea Howard 12.71
12 . DBC Marcus Maxey Miami-Fl 12.71
13 . DBC Richard Marshall Fresno State 12.71
14 . DBS Donte Whitner Ohio State 12.68
15 . DBC Johnathan Joseph South Carolina 12.65
16 . DBS Reed Doughty Northern Colorado 12.63
17 . DBS Nate Salley Ohio State 12.62
18 . DBC Josh Lay Pittsburgh 12.57
19 . DBS Charlie Peprah Alabama 12.55
20 . DBS Bernard Pollard Purdue 12.54
21 . DBS Ko Simpson South Carolina 12.53
22 . DBS Danieal Manning Abilene Christian 12.49
23 . DBC Kelly Jennings Miami-Fl 12.48
24 . DBC Cedric Griffin Texas 12.46
25 . DBC Tim Jennings Georgia 12.45


If you have a question about a specific individual in the rankings, you think its way off based on numbers you know of, you can ask me and I'll help explain how he got where he got.

Also please note these ratings are PURELY based on athleticism figures, and have absolutely nothing to do with their play on the field.

Motion
03-08-2006, 03:17 PM
Interesting stuff.

Sure you don't have too much time on your hands? :D

Skeet84
03-08-2006, 03:23 PM
Interesting stuff.

Sure you don't have too much time on your hands? :D


Very good stuff, But how do you go by these rankings? I mean how is someone more athletic than another? Just wondering how you do this. It is very interesting and yeah Do you have too much time on your hands? :tongue:

Pennington's Rocket Arm
03-08-2006, 03:34 PM
it's hard to tell how far apart these numbers are. is the #1 guy here significantly above the guy in last place?

ckparrothead
03-08-2006, 03:34 PM
It's cool. I actually plan on making money with this stuff some day so I wouldn't worry about it.

Note how ridiculously high Jason Allen's rating is compared to everyone else. Why? Because the guy is ridiculously athletic, pound for pound, inch for inch. First off he participated in everything which gave him a decent bonus. He measured in about 6'1" and 209 pounds, both are above-norm for the group. He benched the bard 17 times, 1 above par for the group. His 39.5" vertical was above par. His 10'9" average broad jump was WAY above par. Interestingly enough his 10 yard split average was second only to teeny tiny Tim Jennings of Georgia. His 20 split was above par and his 40 was way above par (4.43 average). His 3.83 short shuttle was freaking RIDICULOUS compared to everyone else (helps explain the 10 yard split)...nobody else even came CLOSE. His long shuttle was above par, and his cone drill was above par.

Basically at the Combine Jason Allen was bigger, stronger, faster, and more athletic than any other defensive back in the unit.

ckparrothead
03-08-2006, 03:37 PM
it's hard to tell how far apart these numbers are. is the #1 guy here significantly above the guy in last place?

#52 on the list Vincent Meeks had an overall rating of 11.54

In other words there's plenty of difference athletically between Tim Jennings and Vincent Meeks.

As for the definition of athleticism, I suggest you re-read my original post. I made it very clear what the 12 measurements were that went into the rankings.

Skeet84
03-08-2006, 03:38 PM
It's cool. I actually plan on making money with this stuff some day so I wouldn't worry about it.

Note how ridiculously high Jason Allen's rating is compared to everyone else. Why? Because the guy is ridiculously athletic, pound for pound, inch for inch. First off he participated in everything which gave him a decent bonus. He measured in about 6'1" and 209 pounds, both are above-norm for the group. He benched the bard 17 times, 1 above par for the group. His 39.5" vertical was above par. His 10'9" average broad jump was WAY above par. Interestingly enough his 10 yard split average was second only to teeny tiny Tim Jennings of Georgia. His 20 split was above par and his 40 was way above par (4.43 average). His 3.83 short shuttle was freaking RIDICULOUS compared to everyone else (helps explain the 10 yard split)...nobody else even came CLOSE. His long shuttle was above par, and his cone drill was above par.

Basically at the Combine Jason Allen was bigger, stronger, faster, and more athletic than any other defensive back in the unit.



Hmmm thats very interesting! Thanks for info

Pennington's Rocket Arm
03-08-2006, 03:38 PM
i know what you're talking about, i was just wondering what seperates each player from the one ranked ahead or below them. it doesn't seem like much, but i can't really tell.

Noodle Arm
03-08-2006, 03:40 PM
Wow very interesting and thorough. I admit...I'm intrigued by Pat Watkins, he has excellent size and good speed, needs to add some weight though.

SF Dolphin Fan
03-08-2006, 04:12 PM
That's a great list. Interesting how high Watkins is on that list. I wonder if he will last until the 3rd as most draft experts seem to think.

ckparrothead
03-08-2006, 04:36 PM
The following is all 59 guys rated. Note that the bottom 7 did not receive a rating because they didn't participate in anywhere NEAR enough drills.

I think the encouraging thing about this list is if you track it top to bottom, the guys at the top are really THE best DBs in the draft, the guys in the middle are mid-round guys, and the guys at the bottom are low-round guys.

1 . DBS Jason Allen Tennessee 13.45
2 . DBC Derrick Martin Wyoming 13.13
3 . DBS Pat Watkins Florida State 13.05
4 . DBS Daniel Bullocks Nebraska 12.95
5 . DBC Tye Hill Clemson 12.93
6 . DBS Michael Huff Texas 12.93
7 . DBS Eric Smith Michigan State 12.89
8 . DBS Jarrad Page UCLA 12.78
9 . DBC Gerrick McPhearson Maryland 12.72
10 . DBC Antonio Cromartie Florida State 12.72
11 . DBS Antoine Bethea Howard 12.71
12 . DBC Marcus Maxey Miami-Fl 12.71
13 . DBC Richard Marshall Fresno State 12.71
14 . DBS Donte Whitner Ohio State 12.68
15 . DBC Johnathan Joseph South Carolina 12.65
16 . DBS Reed Doughty Northern Colorado 12.63
17 . DBS Nate Salley Ohio State 12.62
18 . DBC Josh Lay Pittsburgh 12.57
19 . DBS Charlie Peprah Alabama 12.55
20 . DBS Bernard Pollard Purdue 12.54
21 . DBS Ko Simpson South Carolina 12.53
22 . DBS Danieal Manning Abilene Christian 12.49
23 . DBC Kelly Jennings Miami-Fl 12.47
24 . DBC Cedric Griffin Texas 12.46
25 . DBC Tim Jennings Georgia 12.45
26 . DBS Anthony Smith Syracuse 12.44
27 . DBC Reuben Houston Georgia Tech 12.43
28 . DBS Greg Blue Georgia 12.40
29 . DBC DeMario Minter Georgia 12.40
30 . DBS Dawan Landry Georgia Tech 12.39
31 . DBC Devin Hester Miami-Fl 12.39
32 . DBC Darrell Hunter Miami-Oh 12.35
33 . DBS Darnell Bing USC 12.31
34 . DBC John Walker USC 12.31
35 . DBC David Pittman Northwestern State 12.29
36 . DBC Dee Webb Florida 12.28
37 . DBS Chris Harrell Penn State 12.28
38 . DBC Chijioke Onyenegecha Oklahoma 12.22
39 . DBS Scott Ware USC 12.22
40 . DBC Chris Hawkins Marshall 12.20
41 . DBC Dee McCann West Virginia 12.18
42 . DBS Calvin Lowry Penn State 12.17
43 . DBS Willie Andrews Baylor 12.15
44 . DBC Khalid Naziruddin Texas Tech 12.06
45 . DBS Marcus Demps San Diego State 12.05
46 . DBS Jahmile Addae West Virginia 12.04
47 . DBS Darrell Brooks Arizona 12.01
48 . DBS Dwayne Slay Texas Tech 11.94
49 . DBC Antonio Malone Toledo 11.87
50 . DBC Charles Gordon Kansas 11.85
51 . DBS Jarvis Herring Florida 11.65
52 . DBS Vincent Meeks Texas Tech 11.54
NR . DBS Roman Harper Alabama N.R.
NR . DBC Marcus Hudson North Carolina State N.R.
NR . DBC Justin Wyatt USC N.R.
NR . DBS Jimmy Williams Virginia Tech N.R.
NR . DBC Alan Zemaitis Penn State N.R.
NR . DBC Anwar Phillips Penn State N.R.
NR . DBC Ashton Youboty Ohio State N.R.

playmaker1
03-08-2006, 08:24 PM
wow, that is really interesting. way over my head

PHINSfan
03-08-2006, 10:21 PM
Interesting read CK...Good job!!!

tmny99
03-09-2006, 12:04 AM
Great post...it's surprising where some of the big name guys are on the list (e.g. Jimmy Williams).

HysterikiLL
03-09-2006, 12:45 AM
CK, you and Boom should start your own draft website. Get some good investors and just go head first. I dig all of this stuff, extremely creative and interesting to read.

ckparrothead
03-09-2006, 12:52 AM
CK, you and Boom should start your own draft website. Get some good investors and just go head first. I dig all of this stuff, extremely creative and interesting to read.

Funny you mention it, we're thinking of rolling something out...KB, Boomer, and I.

HysterikiLL
03-09-2006, 12:55 AM
Funny you mention it, we're thinking of rolling something out...KB, Boomer, and I.

Very cool idea. I don't always agree with KB but the three of you could go far. I'm willing to help if you need anything down the line. Good luck if you go for it....you guys spend so much time on here putting so much energy and research into stuff...it just figures to make a business out of it.

ckparrothead
03-09-2006, 12:55 AM
Great post...it's surprising where some of the big name guys are on the list (e.g. Jimmy Williams).

If you look at the post where I put all 59 guys, Jimmy Williams is there. The problem is that he didn't work out...so its impossible to get a reading on him. All he basically did was measure in. Jimmy Williams, Marcus Hudson, Roman Harper, Alan Zemaitis, Anwar Phillips, Justin Wyatt, and Ashton Youboty all got excluded from the list period because they just didn't do enough drills.

Had they done the drills, who knows. They could have ended up at the very top of the list, or they could have ended up at the very bottom.

Ludacris
03-09-2006, 03:54 AM
CK, can you do a back test? I mean, use the numbers from the last year's combine and prodays to come up with the same list for last years propects and see how effective that ranking is relative to how they played by the end of last season?

playmaker1
03-09-2006, 04:23 AM
CK, can you do a back test? I mean, use the numbers from the last year's combine and prodays to come up with the same list for last years propects and see how effective that ranking is relative to how they played by the end of last season?

that would be really interesting to see the before and after season numbers

ckparrothead
03-09-2006, 10:59 AM
CK, can you do a back test? I mean, use the numbers from the last year's combine and prodays to come up with the same list for last years propects and see how effective that ranking is relative to how they played by the end of last season?

The reason I can't is because these ratings are very relative. The median figures used in calculation are derived from THIS distribution sample...the normalizing adjustments are derived from the standard deviation properties of THIS distribution sample.

But, if that were it, I'd still do it.

The real problem is I can't find detailed enough info about other guys. If you can find me a guy's exact height, weight, 10 yard split, 20 yard split, 40 yard split, vertical, broad jump, bench reps, short shuttle, long shuttle, and cone drill...then I could try and plug him in and see where he gets me. Otherwise, there's no way I can compare a guy whose numbers I don't have.

Pocoloco
03-09-2006, 06:59 PM
Well I've been on the Jason Allen bandwagon since the beginning, so I'm happy to see him at the top of your list. It still boggles my mind that we might be able to get him in the second. Before his injury, he was much much better than all those guys.

PhinsPhan
03-10-2006, 05:49 AM
thanks for that.

I am suprised about Ko Simpson though.

I think stuff like Broad jump should be thrown out though. It proves athleticism but so do the other categories. But unlike the other categories you are not going to see a player take that action in a game.

SWS84
03-10-2006, 08:01 AM
Nice stuff CK! I guess we can say there is a positive correlation between athletism and production in college. (alright, that basic statistics course I am taking right now is paying off!! :D) Now only if we could measure a player's intuition on the college level and extrapolate it (but not to far) towards the more difficult NFL level we could really be in business... :)


Steve


Note: I appreciate all the work you and Boomer put into these draft discussions! It makes this site even better!

emale2u1
03-10-2006, 11:47 PM
I love stuff like this. CK, any chance that you have the data from the last few years so we can go back in time and see how your formula works for players who are already in the NFL?

ckparrothead
03-11-2006, 12:02 AM
I love stuff like this. CK, any chance that you have the data from the last few years so we can go back in time and see how your formula works for players who are already in the NFL?

As a matter of fact....

Guys with the position "CB" or "S" are from last year...guys with "DBC" or "DBS" are this year. This is all last year and this year put into one talent pool for comparison.

Rank...Pos...Name...School...Rating
1 . DBS Jason Allen Tennessee 13.24
2 . CB Rogers, Carlos Auburn 13.13
3 . CB Routt, Stanford Houston 13.11
4 . DBC Derrick Martin Wyoming 13.09
5 . CB Washington, Fabian* Nebraska 13.08
6 . CB Foxworth, Domonique Maryland 12.95
7 . S Sensabaugh, Gerald North Carolina 12.93
8 . DBS Pat Watkins Florida State 12.92
9 . S Beriault, Justin Ball State 12.92
10 . CB Paymah, Karl Washington State 12.87
11 . DBC Tye Hill Clemson 12.82
12 . DBS Daniel Bullocks Nebraska 12.82
13 . DBS Michael Huff Texas 12.80
14 . DBS Eric Smith Michigan State 12.78
15 . CB Starks, Scott Wisconsin 12.74
16 . CB Williams, Darrent Oklahoma State 12.74
17 . CB McKenzie, Chris Arizona State 12.71
18 . CB Wilson, Stanley Stanford 12.68
19 . CB Miller, Justin* Clemson 12.65
20 . CB Bartell, Ronald Howard 12.65
21 . DBS Jarrad Page UCLA 12.65
22 . CB Jackson, Marlin Michigan 12.63
23 . S Butler, James Georgia Tech 12.62
24 . S Considine, Sean Iowa 12.61
25 . DBC Antonio Cromartie Florida State 12.60
26 . DBC Marcus Maxey Miami-Fl 12.60
27 . DBC Gerrick McPhearson Maryland 12.60
28 . DBC Richard Marshall Fresno State 12.56
29 . DBS Donte Whitner Ohio State 12.56
30 . DBC Johnathan Joseph South Carolina 12.56
31 . DBS Antoine Bethea Howard 12.54
32 . CB Hobbs, Ellis Iowa State 12.52
33 . DBS Charlie Peprah Alabama 12.51
34 . S Rhodes, Kerry Louisville 12.51
35 . S Carter, Jerome Florida State 12.50
36 . CB Wishom, Jerron Louisiana Tech 12.49
37 . CB Hodge, Alphonso Miami (OHIO) 12.49
38 . DBS Reed Doughty Northern Colorado 12.49
39 . DBS Nate Salley Ohio State 12.49
40 . DBS Bernard Pollard Purdue 12.47
41 . CB Green, Eric Virginia Tech 12.47
42 . S Maddox, Andre North Carolina State 12.45
43 . S Bullocks, Josh* Nebraska 12.44
44 . S Weeks, Marquis Virginia 12.42
45 . CB Collins, Nick Bethune-Cookman 12.42
46 . CB Johnson, Derrick Texas 12.40
47 . DBS Ko Simpson South Carolina 12.40
48 . S Holley, Terry Rice 12.39
49 . DBC Kelly Jennings Miami-Fl 12.38
50 . DBS Danieal Manning Abilene Christian 12.35
51 . DBC Tim Jennings Georgia 12.35
52 . S Abdullah, Hamza Washington State 12.35
53 . CB Hayden, Kelvin Illinois 12.34
54 . S Fox, Dustin Ohio State 12.34
55 . S Davis, Thomas* Georgia 12.33
56 . DBC Cedric Griffin Texas 12.33
57 . DBC Reuben Houston Georgia Tech 12.31
58 . S Underwood, Marviel San Diego State 12.31
59 . DBS Anthony Smith Syracuse 12.30
60 . DBS Greg Blue Georgia 12.29
61 . DBC Devin Hester Miami-Fl 12.29
62 . DBS Dawan Landry Georgia Tech 12.27
63 . CB Browner, Brandon* Oregon State 12.27
64 . DBS Darnell Bing USC 12.27
65 . DBC DeMario Minter Georgia 12.26
66 . CB Holly, Daven Cincinnati 12.26
67 . DBC Darrell Hunter Miami-Oh 12.26
68 . DBC Dee Webb Florida 12.24
69 . DBC John Walker USC 12.24
70 . CB Perkins, Antonio Oklahoma 12.23
71 . CB Daniels, Travis LSU 12.22
72 . S Bigby, Atari Central Florida 12.20
73 . DBC David Pittman Northwestern State 12.19
74 . S Ferri, Diamond Syracuse 12.19
75 . CB Elimimian, Abraham Hawaii 12.15
76 . DBC Chijioke Onyenegecha Oklahoma 12.14
77 . DBS Chris Harrell Penn State 12.13
78 . DBC Dee McCann West Virginia 12.12
79 . S Francisco, Aaron BYU 12.12
80 . DBC Chris Hawkins Marshall 12.10
81 . S Harmon, Jason Michigan State 12.10
82 . CB Curry, Markus Michigan 12.10
83 . DBS Scott Ware USC 12.09
84 . CB Reid, Lamont North Carolina State 12.07
85 . DBS Willie Andrews Baylor 12.04
86 . DBS Calvin Lowry Penn State 12.03
87 . CB Williams, Aric Oregon State 12.01
88 . S Grootegoed, Matt Southern Cal 12.00
89 . DBS Jahmile Addae West Virginia 11.99
90 . DBS Marcus Demps San Diego State 11.99
91 . DBC Khalid Naziruddin Texas Tech 11.97
92 . CB Williams, Cedrick Kansas State 11.96
93 . DBS Darrell Brooks Arizona 11.93
94 . DBS Dwayne Slay Texas Tech 11.90
95 . DBC Antonio Malone Toledo 11.77
96 . DBC Charles Gordon Kansas 11.76
97 . DBS Jarvis Herring Florida 11.56
98 . S Conway, Atcheson Bowie State 11.50
99 . DBS Vincent Meeks Texas Tech 11.49
100 . S Brimmer, Jamaal UNLV 11.38

playmaker1
03-11-2006, 12:09 AM
wow, thanks CK, great post. That is really interesting to match this years draft up with lsat years!

ckparrothead
03-11-2006, 12:29 AM
Notice Travis Daniels was only #71 on that list. This is part of the reason he was considered around a 5th round pick. He had a great Senior Bowl but he ran his combine 40 slower than usual for him...Saban said he knows that 9 times out of 10 he times around 4.48 or so but for some reason at the combine he ran more like a 4.58

Even so, I think from watching Daniels it is obvious he gets by mostly on technique and discipline, not tremendous physical ability. This is why Saban drafted him...he knew he could play in Saban's system.

It's also why, in the end, Saban MAY feel that Travis is no better than a 3rd corner in the NFL. He had Daniels slotted for nickel CB before Poole got hurt.

playmaker1
03-11-2006, 12:42 AM
you are right about Daniels. Although, I wont lie. He did impress me. He was a 4th round pick nad had tostep up do to poole's injury. I think he held his own. But think if we do land a good CB in the first few rounds, Poole comes back near where he was, and Daniels has ayear under his belt. That is a great nickel, and they would all be really young! As long as we made sure we had some good S behind them to help back them up some, I think our secondary would be way over where we were last season. but that is alot of "ifs". will be interesting to see. On paper to on the field is way different! Thanks CK!

ckparrothead
03-11-2006, 03:06 AM
I'm waiting to see if we take a few sniffs at Tank Williams or Adam Archuleta in FA.

Jason Allen or Cromartie would both be excellent corners to take at #16.

Jaj
03-11-2006, 06:35 AM
I'm waiting to see if we take a few sniffs at Tank Williams or Adam Archuleta in FA.

Jason Allen or Cromartie would both be excellent corners to take at #16.

Tank Williams would be nice to get in FA:cooldude:

He had a bad year but he's a very talented safety and would be great to have because he has recovery speed for a SS.

HysterikiLL
04-29-2006, 03:10 PM
Bump. CHeck number 1 :yes: