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emale2u1
07-31-2006, 11:39 PM
I know I am going to get ripped for what you are about to see in this post, but before you start ripping, read this. I tried to come up with an impartial way of predicting the season.

What I decided to do was to take three different on-line power rankings of the NFL teams, average those rankings and create an average ranking with the best team ranked 1 and the worst ranked 32. Each week of the season, I played the schedule, giving the home team an additional 7 positions . For each game, I gave the winning team a +1 and the losing team a -1. For example, if the 10th rated team played at the 15th rated team, I would give a win to the 15th rated team. In fact the 15th ranked team would beat any team up to the 7th rated team (tie goes to the home team). At the end of each week, I adjusted the rankings by adding the +1 or -1 to the teams prior ranking and the re-ranking the new totals. This is by no means scientific, as I didn't back test my assumptions. I don't know if using a home factor of 10 would work better or worse, or if giving winning teams +2 instead of the +1 would be a better predictor. With that in mind (and I hope you aren't too confused), below are the records for each team and the final standings as per this system.

AFC
East
New England 14-2
Miami 12-4
Buffalo 3-13
NYJ 3-13

South
Jacksonville 13-3
Indianapolis 11-5
Houston 3-13
Tennessee 2-14

North
Pittsburgh 14-2
Cincinnati 7-9
Baltimore 7-9
Cleveland 3-13

West
Denver 14-2
San Diego 10-6
Kansas City 8-8
Oakland 6-10

NFC
East
Dallas 11-5
NYG 10-6
Washington 9-7
Philadelphia 7-9

South
Carolina 16-0
Tampa Bay 9-7
Atlanta 3-13
New Orleans 3-13

North
Chicago 12-4
Minnesota 7-9
Green Bay 7-9
Detroit 6-10

West
Seattle 15-1
Arizona 6-10
St. Louis 4-12
San Francisco 1-15



The bolded team is the division winner and the italized teams are the wild cards. Tampa gets the tie breaker over Washington due to is win at HOME in week 11.

Now I know that the first thing that jumps out at you is Carolina's perfect record. In fact it appears as if the rankings are both top heavy and bottom heavy. That is because there are always big upsets that tend to even out the standings a little. Leaving that aside, you can see which teams appear to have the easiest schedules especially when factoring in where they play their harder games. Carolina was only the average 4th ranked teams in my preseason power rankings, but even so they won all their games. This means that all of their games against high ranked opponents are at home. (Tampa was a preseason #12). If they are fortunate not to have major injuries, Carolina might just be favored in every one of their games. Unfortunately for us, New England also appears to have a favorable schedule. The team that really popped out at me was San Diego. Last year their schedule was murder, this year my system has them at 10 and 6. And that is with a preseason average ranking only 18th place. If they were ranked a little higher, they would most likely have been a wild card team or better.

Ok, give me your best shot. If anyone is intersted, I can send my spreadsheet.

Marshall

Silverphin
07-31-2006, 11:40 PM
YOU PUT THE PATS ABOVE US?!


Just kidding. But I actually think we'll tie the Patriots. We did get strongers and they did get weaker.

Aqua4Ever04
07-31-2006, 11:41 PM
So are you suggesting that there won't be a single upset this season? Also, I don't recall the last time power rankings ever meant anything. I'm not trying to be a jerk, I just think this is completly unrealistic.

LtDan
07-31-2006, 11:47 PM
Panthers undefeated! Better tweak your system a bit :wink:

aquawave
07-31-2006, 11:47 PM
[quote=Silverphin]YOU PUT THE PATS ABOVE US?!


Just kidding. quote]

:lol: :lol:

emale2u1
07-31-2006, 11:47 PM
I realize that the power rankings are going to be off and that upsets do happen (i mentioned that in my original post). After examining the data, I agree that is the records are somewhat meaningless, but it sure does give us an early indication as to who might have an easier schedule (see Jax last year).

elandre
07-31-2006, 11:54 PM
I think well be 10-6 and the pats will be 9-7

No other team will go 16-0 ! AMEN BROTHERS:dolphins:

Roman529
08-01-2006, 12:03 AM
New England with 14 wins??....put down the crack pipe...they will be lucky to win 10 games.

RenoFinFan
08-01-2006, 12:11 AM
So much for parity in the NFL. Wow...5 teams 14-2 or better.

Aqua4Ever04
08-01-2006, 12:12 AM
New England with 14 wins??....put down the crack pipe...they will be lucky to win 10 games.

I don't think they would be lucky to win 10 games. 10 games is about right. They'd be lucky to win 12 but I could see them winning any where from 9-11 games.

phinfanfrommd
08-01-2006, 12:18 AM
someone please remove this thread

PSUFinFan
08-01-2006, 12:20 AM
Like you mentioned, the main problem is that it is lopsided. In your system once a team is ranked in the top 5 it is nearly impossible for them to lose unless the go against another top team on the road, the same thing is true for the bottom teams in the opposite way. Overall it is a creative system, but not really practical.

jclary566
08-01-2006, 12:23 AM
high expectations for pats and dolphins

phinfanfrommd
08-01-2006, 12:25 AM
i think linehan will get the rams back into playoff contention. hes a GREAT coach

MIAdolphin89
08-01-2006, 12:29 AM
i think one of the jets or bills will at least have a decent season. i mean neither one is in hopeless situation for next season.

Aussiefinfan54
08-01-2006, 12:34 AM
Panthers undefeated! Better tweak your system a bit :wink:

yeah they have a damn tough division i dont see them going undefeated good team but not undefeatable

Aussiefinfan54
08-01-2006, 12:35 AM
Panthers undefeated! Better tweak your system a bit :wink:

yeah they are in a tough division they have a good team but not undefeatable

southjerzmastax
08-01-2006, 12:42 AM
are u kidding me man??????? carolina 16-0 ???? lol.....hahahahahahahaha.....never....no one will ever beat miamis record im sorry.....and u put new england at 14-2 lol....wth.....new england will be 6-10 this year they are gonna suck

jclary566
08-01-2006, 12:44 AM
AFC
East

New England 12-4

Miami 12-4

New York 7-9

Buffalo 5-11

South

indianapolis 11-5

jacksonville 10-6

Houston 5-11

Tennessee 4-12

North

Pittsburgh 11-5

Cincinnati 10-6

Baltimore 8-8

Cleveland 7-9

West

Denver 12-4

San Diego 9-7

Kansas City 9-7

Oakland 5-11

NFC

East

New York 12-4

Dallas 10-6

Washington 8-8

Philadelphia 7-9

South

Carolina 12-4

Atlanta 9-7

Tampa Bay7-9

New Orleans 6-10

North

Chicago 10-6

Minnesota 8-8

Green Bay 6-10

Detroit 5-11


West

Seattle 12-4

St. Louis9-7

Arizona7-9

San Francisco 4-12


im not sure if im being too generous to some teams, post and give your opinions

InSabanWeTrust1
08-01-2006, 12:55 AM
interesting what you've done. although the results are unrealistic, i understand what you are saying. how some teams have easier schedules than others and their tough games at home. so in essence the teams in first should be there but there arre always upsets injuries etc. that is why trying to predict anything preseason is just that....a prediction

props on the system and time you put in though.

D Dogg
08-01-2006, 01:00 AM
AFC East
Miami (12-4)
New England (8-8)
Buffalo (5-11)
New York Jets (3-13)

AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs (11-5)
Denver Broncos (10-6)
San Diego Chargers (9-7)
Oakland Raiders (6-10)


AFC South
Indianapolis Colts (10-6)
Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6)
Tennesse Titans (6-10)
Houston Texans (6-10)


AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)
Baltimore Ravens (8-8)
Cleveland Browns (7-9)


NFC East
Dallas Cowboys (12-4)
New York Giants (11-5)
Washington Redskins (10-6)
Philadelphia Eagles (8-8)


NFC West
Seattle Seahawks (10-6)
Arizona Cardinals (9-7)
St.Louis Rams (9-7)
San Francisco 49ers (6-10)


NFC South
Atlanta Falcons (11-5)
Carolina Panthers (11-5)
Tampa Bay Bucs (9-7)
New Orleans Saints (7-9)


NFC North
Chicago Bears (11-5)
Minnesota (9-7)
Green Bay Packers (7-9)
Detroit Lions (2-14)

xxAQUA JOSHUAxx
08-01-2006, 01:05 AM
I Dont Think The Jets Are Gonna Win That Much

Brown42000
08-01-2006, 01:11 AM
These predictions don't seem reasonable and your being too generous to some teams and not generous enough to other teams.Here are my predictions.

AFC
East

Miami 12-4

New England 11-5

Buffalo 5-11

New York 2-14

South

Indianapolis 12-4

Jacksonville 11-5

Tennessee 7-9

Houston 5-11

North

Baltimore 13-3

Pittsburgh 10-6

Cincinnati 9-7

Cleveland 7-9

West

Kansas City 12-4

Denver 11-5

San Diego 9-7

Oakland 6-10

NFC
East

Washington 12-4

NYG 11-5

Dallas 11-5

Philadelphia 6-10

South

Carolina 13-3

Atlanta 9-7

Tampa Bay 8-8

New Orleans 7-9

North

Chicago 11-5

Minnesota 8-8

Detroit 6-10

Green Bay 6-10

West

Seattle 11-5

Arizona 10-6

St.Louis 7-9

San Francisco 5-11

DDTDON
08-01-2006, 01:45 AM
I know I am going to get ripped for what you are about to see in this post, but before you start ripping, read this. I tried to come up with an impartial way of predicting the season.

What I decided to do was to take three different on-line power rankings of the NFL teams, average those rankings and create an average ranking with the best team ranked 1 and the worst ranked 32. Each week of the season, I played the schedule, giving the home team an additional 7 positions . For each game, I gave the winning team a +1 and the losing team a -1. For example, if the 10th rated team played at the 15th rated team, I would give a win to the 15th rated team. In fact the 15th ranked team would beat any team up to the 7th rated team (tie goes to the home team). At the end of each week, I adjusted the rankings by adding the +1 or -1 to the teams prior ranking and the re-ranking the new totals. This is by no means scientific, as I didn't back test my assumptions. I don't know if using a home factor of 10 would work better or worse, or if giving winning teams +2 instead of the +1 would be a better predictor. With that in mind (and I hope you aren't too confused), below are the records for each team and the final standings as per this system.

AFC
East
New England 14-2
Miami 12-4
Buffalo 3-13
NYJ 3-13

South
Jacksonville 13-3
Indianapolis 11-5
Houston 3-13
Tennessee 2-14

North
Pittsburgh 14-2
Cincinnati 7-9
Baltimore 7-9
Cleveland 3-13

West
Denver 14-2
San Diego 10-6
Kansas City 8-8
Oakland 6-10

NFC
East
Dallas 11-5
NYG 10-6
Washington 9-7
Philadelphia 7-9

South
Carolina 16-0
Tampa Bay 9-7
Atlanta 3-13
New Orleans 3-13

North
Chicago 12-4
Minnesota 7-9
Green Bay 7-9
Detroit 6-10

West
Seattle 15-1
Arizona 6-10
St. Louis 4-12
San Francisco 1-15



The bolded team is the division winner and the italized teams are the wild cards. Tampa gets the tie breaker over Washington due to is win at HOME in week 11.

Now I know that the first thing that jumps out at you is Carolina's perfect record. In fact it appears as if the rankings are both top heavy and bottom heavy. That is because there are always big upsets that tend to even out the standings a little. Leaving that aside, you can see which teams appear to have the easiest schedules especially when factoring in where they play their harder games. Carolina was only the average 4th ranked teams in my preseason power rankings, but even so they won all their games. This means that all of their games against high ranked opponents are at home. (Tampa was a preseason #12). If they are fortunate not to have major injuries, Carolina might just be favored in every one of their games. Unfortunately for us, New England also appears to have a favorable schedule. The team that really popped out at me was San Diego. Last year their schedule was murder, this year my system has them at 10 and 6. And that is with a preseason average ranking only 18th place. If they were ranked a little higher, they would most likely have been a wild card team or better.

Ok, give me your best shot. If anyone is intersted, I can send my spreadsheet.

Marshall

What the ****!!!!! I am not just talking AFC East but the whole thing. Carolina 16-0 and Denver 14-2 and NE 14-2. You are way off. There weren't that many teams last season with only 2 losses. And u got too many, it doesn't make sense. :sidelol: :sidelol:

don't circumvent the profanity filter

Aqua4Ever04
08-01-2006, 02:49 AM
are u kidding me man??????? carolina 16-0 ???? lol.....hahahahahahahaha.....never....no one will ever beat miamis record im sorry.....and u put new england at 14-2 lol....wth.....new england will be 6-10 this year they are gonna suck

:shakeno:
When I see people on Pats forums or other places saying the Fins will be lucky to win 6 games, I just think they are moronic. I'm sure there will be some trolls thinking that on here with this post as well. Come on dude, don't be so close minded.

Aqua4Ever04
08-01-2006, 02:50 AM
Why are there 3 differnt prediction threads floating around? Can we have a merge? This is getting a little annoying.

feelthepain
08-01-2006, 02:54 AM
I don't think the Pats are gonna lose that much.

Dolfan984
08-01-2006, 02:56 AM
I think 8 wins is too much between the Jets and Bills :chuckle:

Perfect23
08-01-2006, 02:59 AM
Oh I like

Joey 22
08-01-2006, 04:54 AM
AFC
East

New England 12-4

Miami 12-4

New York 7-9

Buffalo 5-11

South

indianapolis 11-5

jacksonville 10-6

Houston 5-11

Tennessee 4-12

North

Pittsburgh 11-5

Cincinnati 10-6

Baltimore 8-8

Cleveland 7-9

West

Denver 12-4

San Diego 9-7

Kansas City 9-7

Oakland 5-11

NFC

East

New York 12-4

Dallas 10-6

Washington 8-8

Philadelphia 7-9

South

Carolina 12-4

Atlanta 9-7

Tampa Bay7-9

New Orleans 6-10

North

Chicago 10-6

Minnesota 8-8

Green Bay 6-10

Detroit 5-11


West

Seattle 12-4

St. Louis9-7

Arizona7-9

San Francisco 4-12


im not sure if im being too generous to some teams, post and give your opinions


Yeah you are with the Giants, no way they go 12-4, Rams shouldnt be 9-7, they sholud be tied with the Cards at 8-8... give the Redskins the win you are taking away from the Giants...

emale2u1
08-01-2006, 08:15 AM
So are you suggesting that there won't be a single upset this season? Also, I don't recall the last time power rankings ever meant anything. I'm not trying to be a jerk, I just think this is completly unrealistic.

I agree that there will be suprise teams this year. Right now we don't know who they are, so the best information we have right now are the "experts" preseason rankings of each team. I stated in my commentary that one problem I saw with this system is the lack of major upsets.

emale2u1
08-01-2006, 08:18 AM
Like you mentioned, the main problem is that it is lopsided. In your system once a team is ranked in the top 5 it is nearly impossible for them to lose unless the go against another top team on the road, the same thing is true for the bottom teams in the opposite way. Overall it is a creative system, but not really practical.

I agree. But when you look at the top teams in the league, they don't lose many games except when they go against the other top teams. Another problem with this system is that it treats all games the same (ie division rivals are usually more unpredictable)

emale2u1
08-01-2006, 08:19 AM
someone please remove this thread

Too much thinking for you? It was just a discussion starter. If you look at the standings without the records, I don't think that they are that far off from what many are predicting ... are they?

jclary566
08-01-2006, 01:32 PM
Yeah you are with the Giants, no way they go 12-4, Rams shouldnt be 9-7, they sholud be tied with the Cards at 8-8... give the Redskins the win you are taking away from the Giants...


rams boosted their D, bulger is back and healthy, not to mention steven jackson running the football, its not un realistic to think they will go 9-7, and the cards mainly upgraded on offense, their defense is still pretty much the same.

giants are just gonna be good this season too

as well as the fins!:dolphins: