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MaxPower
06-06-2003, 06:07 PM
ok, I'm soooooo bored with the Griese thing that I've got to sit this out here...

...I want to create a computerized power ranking of NFL teams, similar to the BCS (for lack of a better example). I want it based on numbers, not some BS opinion (like Prisco, espn, etc) but I'm struggling with the formula to use to determine rankings & was hoping for some input.

Also, if anyone has a sleek idea of the best way to structure/implement such a system (database, spreadsheet, etc) I'd be glad to hear it. I'm only tinkering at this stage...

OK, so I've divided a ranking into 3 categories: record & strength of schedule, performance (team stats), & "force", which I'll explain in a sec...

1. record & SOS: I think games should be weighted for home/away, within division, primetime (sun/mon), & against top10 teams. In other words, there's point values in these instances above & beyond normal games...you get props for winning MNF, but get whacked for losing a divsion game at home...seems right to me. Big players deliver in big games.

2. Perfomance - ok, this is where it is most fuzzy...I'm leaning towards using scoring, team QB rating (which is really an efficiency rating), "big plays" (includes turnoves, sacks, but not long gains on off.), 3rd down% (always the mark of a good team), and then "Avg gain/play" as kind of a benchmark efficiency score....I'm open for better suggestions.

3. "Force" - ok, this I'm most proud of. This would be a score based on how you affected the other team...for instance, if the Rams usually avg 30pts/gm & 400yds/game, & a team holds them to 13pts & 296yds, that ought to mean something...so you get points for holding good teams down & the flip side is you're whacked for letting bad teams go wild. And there's no penalty for keeping a team at around their avg, just no bonus/penalty...I think it's a fair trait in quality teams to perfom in this situation...

So, any ideas? Also, what ratio should these count for? 40/40/20? Or 60/25/15?

And just so you know, in order to factor in offense & defense, the scores were going to come from a "difference" in the 2 teams during a game. So a team's score after a game is the mirror image of their opponent's, & they compile after all games to form a basis for rankings...seem right? Too confusing?

I should have the kinks worked out in a couple of weeks, with my prelim rankings up on the web before camps start. I guess no one has to know the "formula" to get pissed that their team is 30th, right? Just looking to stir debate.

So gimmie feeedback, & no BS in order to make the Fins highly ranked (that will happen naturally ;) )

Anyway, that's my boring between-Griese-and-training camp coversation starter:D

buffman
06-06-2003, 06:19 PM
Wow you must really be bored.