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View Full Version : My 2007 "What Should Happen" Mock Draft v. 1



Fineas
03-30-2007, 04:44 PM
I do not claim any insight into who teams like in the draft, nor do I have any particular ability to filter through the speculative reporting and intentional misinformation that swirls around before the draft. This mock is not who I think teams will pick, but rather who I think they should pick. I include trades because, well, . . . trades are fun. It does have to be reasonably close on at least one version of the Trade Value Chart.

1. Detroit [3,000 pts. -- from Oakland for No. 2, No. 66 and 97 (2968 pts)] – Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame

A 35-yr old John Kitna is not a long-term answer at QB. Quinn should be able to pick up Martz’s complicated offense and will able to sit and learn for a year behind Kitna. The Raiders should be dangling this pick to Cleveland, which is what would cause Detroit to move up to get Quinn. Russell just does not seem like a fit in Martz’s offense.

2. Cleveland [2,600 pts – from Oakland with No. 97 (112 pts—total of 2712 pts) just acquired from Detroit for No. 3 and No. 34 (2,760 pts.)] – Jamarcus Russell, QB, LSU

Oakland picks up a couple of decent picks and still has its choice of Russell and Calvin Johnson. Johnson is definitely the best WR prospect of all time and is among the top 4-5 at any position in the last 25 years. Problem is that the Raiders have a big need at QB. Russell has all the tools, has improved significantly each year, and played well in big games. Too tough a decision. So what do the Raiders do? Trade back one spot and let Cleveland make the decision for them. Cleveland has some good receiving threats in Edwards and Winslow, but needs the QB. They could use Peterson too, but the QB position is simply more important.

3. Oakland [from Cleveland after trade with Detroit] – Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech

Oakland picks up Nos. 34 and 66 to move back two spots to still be able to pick the best prospect in the draft.

4. Miami [1,800 pts – from Tampa Bay with Tampa’s No. 141 (35.5 pts) for Nos. 9 and 40 (1850 pts)] – Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin

With CJ off the board, the two best players remaining are Gaines Adams and Joe Thomas. Tampa just signed Luke Petitgout to play LT, so they can feel a little better about passing on Thomas. If they pass on Thomas, they know Arizona will be all over him at 5. Washington (if the Briggs trade does not go through) is likely looking DL, as is Minnesota. Okoye would be a great fit in Tampa, but this might just be too high for him. Miami knows Arizona will grab Thomas and Thomas is the only LT worthy of a high 1st round pick. They begrudgingly give up their early 2nd to move up and try to cement that LT position.

Miami may have confidence in Alabi, but they haven’t shown it yet. He’s played very little and LT is a tough position to roll the dice on. While I hesitantly think this is “what should happen,” I’m not that happy about it. If I felt there would be good trade down opportunities at 9, I wouldn’t do it, but I think there will be very little trade down value at 9. If Alabi really shows he deserves to start at LT, Thomas can move inside and play LG. Yes, he would be largely wasted there, but if Alabi really plays well at LT, one of them can be traded down the line for top dollar as a young, talented LT.

5. Green Bay [1,700 pts – from Arizona for No. 16, No. 47, 78 and 178 (1,650 pts.) – Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma

The Cards are really pissed that Thomas is gone. Tampa offered this pick to them, but the Cards thought they can stay put and still get Thomas. Peterson and Gaines Adams are now the top players on the board. They may be tempted to take Peterson, but they invested heavily in Edgerrin James last year. James did not have a good year, but can still be very good if he gets some blocking. Adams would be a solid pick, but the Cards have a lot of needs. They’d like to trade down using Peterson as the bait, but the next few teams (now Washington, Tampa and Atlanta) just don’t have major RB needs. Buffalo has a RB need, but I don’t think they’d trade up to get one and are more likely to take a 2nd rounder. Green Bay should have interest in Peterson, but Arizona should be reluctant to move all the way down to 16. In the end, however, Arizona takes the deal, figuring they can likely still get Levi Brown at 16.

6. Minnesota [1,600 points -- from Washington for No. 7 and No. 102 (1592 pts) – Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson

Washington needs DL help. Without another pick until the 5th, they should want to move down if they can still pick up one of the top DLs. Gaines Adams is the BPA and would fill a need, but Washington needs some more picks too. They create enough of a threat that they will take Adams if Minny doesn’t trade up that Minnesota coughs up a 4th to move up to take Adams.

7. Arizona [1,500 points -- from Washington (With pick from trade with Minnesota) for Nol. 16 (1000 pts), 47 (430 pts) and 178 (20.2 pts) – Levi Brown, OT, Penn State

Washington picks up an extra 4th from Minnesota and has a choice between Branch, Anderson and Carriker. They could still use some more picks and think they can still get a good DL a little later. Arizona needs an OT badly and is not comfortable that Brown will get past Houston at 10. In summary, Arizona ends up getting No. 78 (200 pts) to move back 2 spots from 5 (1,700 pts) to 7 (1,500 pts.) and gets it OT. Washington has now moved from 6 to 16 and picked up Nos. 47, 102 and 178.

8. Atlanta (from Houston) – Laron Landry, S, LSU

Atlanta needs a safety and Landry edges out Nelson here.

9. Tampa Bay [from trade with Miami] – Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville

Tampa gets lucky and his its choice of a guy reminiscent of Warren Sapp (Amobi Okoye) or a replacement for Simeon Rice (Jamaal Anderson). His time with Okoye at the Senior Bowl is the deciding factor.

[Note: Here’s the problem for Miami’s trade down prospects at 9. The best players on the board here are Anderson, Willis and Nelson. As much as I’d like to beat the BPA drum, I just don’t think this team can justify a defense pick here, with a top 5 defense from last year plus our two most significant free agent signings (Porter and Holliday). I have my doubts about Ginn as a No. 1 receiver and wouldn’t take a No. 2 receiver with a top 10 pick. I don’t see Levi Brown as a top 10 pick either. It’s also too high for Meacham or Bowe. With 2 DEs and 2 safeties of relatively close value still on the board, I don’t see any of the teams with the next 6-7 picks being that eager to move up. If I had to pick for the Fins, I’d probably go with Hall or Revis here.]

10. Houston – Reggie Nelson, S, Florida

Houston has spent a lot of draft currency on the DL in recent years but still has significant needs in the middle. Unfortunately for them, Branch and Okoye are both gone. Having taken Mario Williams last year, they pass on Anderson here. DeMeco Ryans is there at MLB, so Willis isn’t the best fit. Levi Brown would have been a consideration, but he’s gone. Reggie Nelson fills a need and is among the BPA.

11. San Francisco – Adam Carriker, DE/DT, Nebraska

Carriker fits nicely into San Fran’s 3-4/4-3 hybrid scheme as he can play inside in the 4-3 and “outside” in the 3-4.

12. Buffalo – Patrick Willis, LB, Mississippi

Buffalo gives some thought to Lynch, but Willis is a safe pick here with very little downside and surprising speed and athletic ability. Willis is the kind of attack MLB they want to replace London Fletcher.

13. St. Louis – Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas

The Rams lost Curtis and McDonald in free agency and Isaac Bruce can’t play forever. Meacham has the best combination of big play ability and size of the remaining WRs and is a consideration here. DL is more of an immediate need and Anderson is good value at 13.

14. Carolina – Robert Meacham, WR, Tennessee

Leon Hall, Darrelle Revis and Chris Houston may be the best value here, but the Panthers don’t really have a need at CB. Keyshawn Johnson is definitely on the decline and Meacham gives them a nice young WR opposite Steve Smith.

15. Tennessee [1,050 pts. – from Pittsburgh for Nos. 19 and 80 (1,065 pts)] – Leon Hall, CB, Michigan

Pittsburgh has few glaring weaknesses and has room to move down. There is nobody here at 15 who is so markedly better than others who will still be there at 20. Among those they should be looking at is Ryan Kalil. Jeff Hartings retired and the Steelers have a tradition of quality C play (Webster, Dawson, Hartings). This is too high for Kalil, so they should be looking to trade down. The value here is at CB, where one you can have your pick of Hall, Revis, Ross or Houston. Of the next few teams to pick, several have needs in the secondary – Arizona, Tennessee, Cincy and the Giants. Tennessee might have to prepare for life without Pacman and should therefore be willing to give up something to get their first choice of CBs.

16. Washington [from Arizona from Green Bay] – Jon Beason, LB, Miami

This all assumes that the Briggs trade doesn’t happen. Washington has needs at DT, DE and LB. They consider Jarvis Moss, Poszluzny, Beason, Timmons, Tank Tyler and Charles Johnson. Without Briggs, I see them taking Beason.

17. Jacksonville – Lawrence Timmons, LB, FSU

The Jags should be looking to trade down here. Unfortunately for them, there aren’t a lot of guys teams are eager to move up for. The Jags could use help at OLB, leaving them with a choice of Timmons or Puz. They could use some help at WR too, but have invested a few 1st rounders in Williams and Jones, so I don’t think they’d go there.

18. Cincinnati – Jarvis Moss, DE/OLB, Florida

The Bengals’ pass defense was awful last year. In O’Neal and JJoseph, I’m not sure they necessarily need a new CB though. They could get pass rush help from Jarvis Moss or help at DB with Revis, Houston or B.Merriweather. I’d go with Moss here.

19. Pittsburgh – Darrelle Revis, CB, Pitt

Having lost Hartings to retirement, I could see them going for Kalil, although this may be a bit high for him. Revis is a local guy, very physical and would be a good fit in Pittsburgh.

20. NY Giants – Marshawn Lynch, RB, California

The Giants need a back to replace Barber and Lynch is a pretty good one at No. 20.

21. Denver – Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU

Rod Smith is fast approaching the century mark. A big, physical receiver would fit in well alongside Javon Walker.

22. Dallas – Ted Ginn, Jr., WR, Ohio State

TO and Glenn are both getting up there in age. Ginn’s stock has dropped a little due to not being able to work out, but at 22 Dallas gets a potential big-play WR.

23. Kansas City – Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas

Surtain and Law are getting up there and Houston is a very good, young press corner.

24. New England (from Seattle) – Brandon Merriweather, S, Miami

Merriweather comes in as the heir to Rodney Harrison. He doesn’t fit the classic NE mold in terms of temperament, but neither did Harrison (nor does Donte Stallworth).

25. NY Jets – Anthony Spencer, DE/OLB, Purdue

The Jets take Spencer to fill the role formerly occupied by John Abraham.

26. Philadelphia – Michael Griffin, S, Texas

The Eagles lost Michael Lewis in FA and Brian Dawkins, while still very good, is getting older.

27. New Orleans – Aaron Ross, CB, Texas

The Saints’ pass defense was actually pretty good last year, except when it came to giving up passing TDs (26). That’s no small problem, however. Ross could slide in opposite Mike McKenzie.

28. New England – Ben Grubbs, OG, Auburn

Guard is not a huge need for the Pats, but they don’t have a lot of huge needs. They need ILB help for aging Bruschi and Vrabel, but it is a bit early for Brandon Siler or David Harris. Grubbs may be the best player available here.

29. Baltimore – Joe Staley, OT, Central Michigan

Not a lot of glaring needs here. Jonathan Ogden is getting up there in age and gives the Ravens the luxury of getting a premium athlete a year or two before he is fully ripe.

30. San Diego – Paul Posluszny, LB, Penn State

Puz replaces Donnie Edwards in the strong side OLB position in the SD defense.

31. Chicago – Greg Olson, TE, Miami

The Bears get a potential impact player at TE.

32. Miami [590 pts – from Indianapolis for Nos. 60 (300), 71 (235) and 181 (19 pts.) and 198 (12.2)] -- Ryan Kalil, C, USC

The Dolphins move up to continue to bolster their OL. The choices here are Kalil and Blalock. I like Blalock, but just have a conviction about Kalil. I know some will say he lacks the bulk and ballast for Hudson Houck, but I don’t think Houck is as committed to bulk as some people think. Especially at center. Mark Stepnoski may have been his best C and he was only around 6-2, 265, with much of that weight in the upper body.. I think Kalil will be a several time Pro Bowler and, hell, this is what I think should happen. Hadnot can move to G, as well as being a backup C.

Without trading the picks, there may be the possibility of something like the following:

1 (9) – Levi Brown
2 (40) – Justin Blalock
2 (60) – Alleman or Satele
3 (71) – Tony Ugoh

An argument can be made that these 4 bodies are better than just two (Thomas and Kalil). And that could turn out to be true. I think, however, that it is a safer bet that Thomas will be a quality LT than the combination of Brown and Ugoh. Brown should be a quality player, but to me he seems like a much surer thing at RT. Ugoh has intriguing physical attributes, but could end up a complete bust. Moreover, there is no assurance that Brown will be there at 9 or that Blalock will be there at 40. In this mock draft, Brown is gone at 7 and I think Blalock would probably be one of the first 5 guys to go in the second round. There’s also no guarantee that Alleman or Satele will be there at 60, although I think at least on f them likely would be. Even if they are there at 60, I think both carry much greater risk than Kalil.

While C has traditionally been viewed as a non-premium position in the draft, I think it is more important than many people think. The center is the QB of the line and is literally right in the middle of the offense. Without good OL play, it is very difficult to do anything, run or pass. I’m not sure it is a coincidence that the last 4 teams to make the Super Bowl have had Pro Bowl centers: Indy (Saturday), Chicago (Kreutz), Pittsburgh (Hartings) and Seattle (Tobeck). I also doubt that it is a coincidence that most of the best teams of the 1970s had perennial Pro Bowl centers: Pittsburgh (Webster), Dolphins (Langer), Minnesota (Tingelhoff) and Oakland (Otto/Dalby). Or that the great Dolphins offenses of the early 80s had Dwight Stephenson. Or that the mid-80s Bears teams had a regular Pro Bowler at center (Jay Hilgenberg). Or that the great Cowboys teams of the early-mid 90s had Pro Bowl centers (Stepnoski/Donaldson). Or that the great Bills offenses that went to 4 Super Bowls had a Pro Bowl center (Kent Hull). Or that the Broncos’ Super Bowl winning teams had one in Tom Nalen. Etc. While there have been great teams and great offenses that haven’t had great centers, I’m not sure there has ever been one without at least a good center.

Yes, we’ve given up a bunch of picks, but we’ve added two very good, smart OLs who should be on that line for the next decade and should consistently be in consideration for the Pro Bowl. Between Toledo, Hadnot, Liewinski (and maybe Matt Lehr or Cooper Carlisle), someone should be able to fill the LG position. If Alabi pans out, we could also consider moving Thomas or Alabi to RT and moving Carey inside to G. Our only remaining pick of consequence would be No. 108 (early-mid 4th round).

While many would disagree, I’d offer that to Oakland for Randy Moss, contingent on being able to work out an acceptable restructuring of his contract. Oakland has reportedly been seeking a 2nd for Moss, but hasn’t found any takers. They may ultimately be willing to take an early-mid 4th for him. If that can be done, we’d have a skill position lineup of Culpepper (who I think will be healthy and back to his old self), Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams (assuming reinstatement), Cory Schlesinger, David Martin, Randy Moss, Chris Chambers, Marty Booker and Derek Hagen. Whether they all play up to their abilities remains a question (but that’s true of everyone), but there is no shortage of talent there. With the OL upgrades with Thomas and Kalil, discussed above, and with better play calling this can be a very good offense.

If a Moss deal is not workable, I’d be hoping (being at least fairly realistic) to see one of the following guys: Mike Walker (WR, UCF), Yamon Figurs (WR, Kansas State), Ben Patrick (TE, Delaware), Paul Soliai (DT, Utah), Marcus Thomas (DT, Florida), Buster Davis (ILB, FSU), H.B. Blades (ILB, Pitt), Courtney Brown (CB, Cal Poly), or Sabby Piscitelli (S, Oregon State).

Dolfan32323
03-30-2007, 04:52 PM
Well if the draft pans out anything like this I would be amazed lol. You must have had a good time coming up with this!

Fineas
03-30-2007, 04:58 PM
Well if the draft pans out anything like this I would be amazed lol. You must have had a good time coming up with this!

Clearly, the draft will not play out like this. This is not supposed to be a prediction of what will happen. It is just my view of what should happen if, hypothetically, every team were to work as hard as they can to get their needs, value and player availability to coincide as closely as possible.

And yes, it was fun to play around with all the trades.

Dolfan32323
03-30-2007, 05:01 PM
I know it's not supposed to be a prediction (read your little prefix). Was just saying it's pretty wild, that's all.

JFoxx
03-30-2007, 05:02 PM
This makes for an interesting read, but the possibility of all those trades and multiple trades within the top positions, so that nobody in the top 10 picks is picking in their original position is so remote, it's not funny. With that said, the logic on some of the picks behind such trades for the most part make at least decent logic. Once you get past the top 10, it seems to fall in place with what a lot of draft boards. It's just really tough to believe the top 10 will go that way.

PhinsRDbest
03-30-2007, 05:39 PM
So Miami has four picks in the draft and did not get a franchise Qb, wheres my noose.

VT Dolphan
03-30-2007, 06:11 PM
I would rather trade down and take Staley or Kalil and then spend a second round pick on a guard. Or if Quinn starts to slide out of the top 3, get on that phone and start offering Tampa, or Washington whatever they would like.

retarmyfinfan
03-30-2007, 06:13 PM
Well if the draft pans out anything like this I would be amazed lol. You must have had a good time coming up with this!

That would be an interesting draft. There is more trades in the 1st round then there have been in tha last 5 drafts combined, LOL.

Spray Mucus
03-30-2007, 06:17 PM
my brain hurts

TexanPhinatic
03-30-2007, 06:19 PM
A fun read, and to be fair you state its not what you think will happen, but wow thats alot of trades!!

Cool post anyway, would be nice to see a draft shakeup like this heh :)