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View Full Version : How much would you give up to get these players



fullerboy1
03-31-2007, 02:20 AM
1 Russell - 9th + 2nd
2 Quinn - 9th + 2nd + next years 2nd
3 Johnson - 9th + both 2nds + next years 2nd + Ricky
4 Thomas - 9th + both 2nds + Ricky
5 Adams - 9th + 2nd

I Would base it on matter of importance and it would look like this.

GRYPHONK
03-31-2007, 03:20 AM
1 Russell - 9th + 2nd
2 Quinn - 9th + 2nd + next years 2nd
3 Johnson - 9th + both 2nds + next years 2nd + Ricky
4 Thomas - 9th + both 2nds + Ricky
5 Adams - 9th + 2nd

I Would base it on matter of importance and it would look like this.
1) Russell- 9th and our late 2nd
2)Quinn- 9th, early 2nd, 2nd next year and a 4th next year
3)Johnson- 9th, Chambers and a 4th(Which TB might consider long before saying no. But they would definitely think)
4)Thomas-only if he fell to 9
5)Adams- Only if he fell to 9

Paul 13
03-31-2007, 04:05 AM
1 Russell - 9th + 2nd
2 Quinn - 9th + 2nd + next years 2nd
3 Johnson - 9th + both 2nds + next years 2nd + Ricky
4 Thomas - 9th + both 2nds + Ricky
5 Adams - 9th + 2nd

I Would base it on matter of importance and it would look like this.

This is an interesting topic, to assist I'd like to point out that in order to move up to spots one thru five the Phins would need to give up the following:

1st pick: 9th, both 2nds, and next years 1st
2nd pick: 9th, both 2nds, and next years 2nd
3rd pick: 9th, both 2nds, and next years 4th (if we had a 5th this year)
4th pick: 9th, first 2nd, TB's 5th OR 9th, second 2nd, and next years 3rd
5th pick: 9th, second 2nd, and next years 4th

Given that the five players you mentioned are arguably the top 5 rated this year, although Adrian Peterson could be included, the above is what it would take to reach each one assuming that each player is taken according to their rank. I'll rank them like this:

1. Johnson
2. Thomas
3. Russell
4. Quinn
5. Adams

Back to your question, if I were making the decision for the Phins, I would give up the following for each player:

1. Johnson - 9th, first 2nd
2. Thomas - 9th, both 2nds, and next year's 2nd
3. Russell - only if he fell to 9
4. Quinn - 9th, first 2nd
5. Adams - only if he fell to 9

So, another way of looking at it, if Johnson somehow (doubtful but you never know) fell to #4, and TB was looking on trading down (probably more doubtful), I'd give up the necessary picks, see above. If Thomas were available at #2 and Detroit is looking on trading down, I'd make that deal. And if Quinn is available at #4, again with TB looking on trading down, I'd make that deal.

fishypete
03-31-2007, 04:36 AM
Not a thing....unless they fall to the Dolphins at 9...I wouldn't trade away the future for either of them...and I like C. Johnson.

Jaj
03-31-2007, 04:39 AM
One draft pick isn't equivalent to another. Calvin becomes available offcourse you show interest. Mediocre to good players can always be found. Superstars are seldom.

Kdawg954
03-31-2007, 06:40 AM
1. Johnson
2. Thomas
3. Russell
4. Quinn
5. Adams

Back to your question, if I were making the decision for the Phins, I would give up the following for each player:

1. Johnson - 9th, first 2nd
2. Thomas - 9th, both 2nds, and next year's 2nd
3. Russell - only if he fell to 9
4. Quinn - 9th, first 2nd
5. Adams - only if he fell to 9

So, another way of looking at it, if Johnson somehow (doubtful but you never know) fell to #4, and TB was looking on trading down (probably more doubtful), I'd give up the necessary picks, see above. If Thomas were available at #2 and Detroit is looking on trading down, I'd make that deal. And if Quinn is available at #4, again with TB looking on trading down, I'd make that deal.

Joe Thomas is good, he isn't that good. Why do all that when we could still draft an impact player in round 1 and trade our 2 seconds to get back in the first round and get Joe Staley, and STILL have our second next year. Yea Joe Thomas is the best LT in this draft, but he isn't worth 4 top 60 picks. Come on, we need line but he isn't a sure thing, he has question marks in a few areas. U only make that kind of move for a franchise QB, not even for a franchise RB I do that (sorry Mike Ditka).

Vendigo
03-31-2007, 06:50 AM
This is an interesting topic, to assist I'd like to point out that in order to move up to spots one thru five the Phins would need to give up the following:

1st pick: 9th, both 2nds, and next years 1st
2nd pick: 9th, both 2nds, and next years 2nd
3rd pick: 9th, both 2nds, and next years 4th (if we had a 5th this year)
4th pick: 9th, first 2nd, TB's 5th OR 9th, second 2nd, and next years 3rd
5th pick: 9th, second 2nd, and next years 4th

Sorry, mate, but these draft values are completely off the mark. To get to #1, the Dolphins had to give up far more than both 2nds and next year's 1st. That's roughly what you had to give up to move to #3. Most people overestimate the worth of a future draftpick. Next years first has about the same value as a second this year. And so forth.

fullerboy1
03-31-2007, 07:54 AM
Sorry, mate, but these draft values are completely off the mark. To get to #1, the Dolphins had to give up far more than both 2nds and next year's 1st. That's roughly what you had to give up to move to #3. Most people overestimate the worth of a future draftpick. Next years first has about the same value as a second this year. And so forth.

We know that, its just what you think you would want to give up for the players listed, not what it actually takes.

Fingers
03-31-2007, 08:06 AM
The only prospect worth moving up for is Quinn. Johnson is clearly the most talented but as a WR he doesn't get enough touches to warrant sacrificing the other picks.

fullerboy1
03-31-2007, 08:15 AM
The only prospect worth moving up for is Quinn. Johnson is clearly the most talented but as a WR he doesn't get enough touches to warrant sacrificing the other picks.

Thats debatible!

Vendigo
03-31-2007, 08:44 AM
We know that, its just what you think you would want to give up for the players listed, not what it actually takes.

I understand the point of this thread, but Paul specifically pointed out what he thought was needed to get these players - and if we're talking need (at least that's what Paul was talking), then his numbers are off the mark.

Paul 13
03-31-2007, 11:57 AM
I understand the point of this thread, but Paul specifically pointed out what he thought was needed to get these players - and if we're talking need (at least that's what Paul was talking), then his numbers are off the mark.


I understand your line of thinking and appreciate the input. However, I think it's more complex than just saying a future pick is worth one round lower than a current draft pick. There's much more to it than that. You have to look at the team trading up and what one would expect their record to be for the upcoming season. You can then project what value that future pick would have because there's quite a difference between a top five pick in the round from a bottom five pick in said round. Trying to think unbiased for the moment, as a Phins fan, the likelihood they'd be in the upper half of a round as opposed to the lower half is much greater... I don't see them making the playoffs this year, shocking I know :boohoo:

Anyway, my values for the first and second pick trade up are debatable... however, I think they are pretty spot on for spots 3, 4 and 5.

PhinsRDbest
03-31-2007, 12:02 PM
Russell-none
Quinn-1st ,1 2nd, and 3rd maybee more.
Thomas- 1st, 3rd
Johnson- same as Quinn
Staley- 2 2nds
Revis- 2 2nds
Ginn(doubt he falls)- 2 2nds

Vendigo
03-31-2007, 01:13 PM
However, I think it's more complex than just saying a future pick is worth one round lower than a current draft pick.

Unfortunately, it isn't. You'd have a hard time finding an NFL GM who subjects himself to such a prediction - because experience tells you that you simply can't predict the modern day NFL. Take the Jets or Saints as an example: Prior to last year's draft, everyone expected them to be bottom feeders this year. Now, if you made a trade based on that prediction, you'd be pretty much owned by now. There's just too many examples of bad teams making a quick turnaround that NFL FOs would rely on such a prediction. Hence the lower value of future picks.


Anyway, my values for the first and second pick trade up are debatable... however, I think they are pretty spot on for spots 3, 4 and 5.

According to the value chart, they are. But usually teams drafting in the top 5 ask for a lot more than that to trade down. Take the Dolphins in 2004. In order to move up one spot (about 20 to 25 value), they had to give up a 4th (~65 value).

Dolfan11
03-31-2007, 01:50 PM
The only player we trade up for is Calvin Johnson, and that's if he falls to #3.

#3 - 2,200 points

#9 - 1,350 points
#40 - 500 points
#60 - 300 points
TOTAL - 2,150

Chances our we'd have to include a future pick/player and possibly pick up an extra pick as well, like Paul13 said above.

fullerboy1
03-31-2007, 02:02 PM
The only player we trade up for is Calvin Johnson, and that's if he falls to #3.

#3 - 2,200 points

#9 - 1,350 points
#40 - 500 points
#60 - 300 points
TOTAL - 2,150

Chances our we'd have to include a future pick/player and possibly pick up an extra pick as well, like Paul13 said above.

I agree with that.:D

Regan21286
03-31-2007, 02:40 PM
1 Russell - 9th + 2nd
2 Quinn - 9th + 2nd + next years 2nd
3 Johnson - 9th + both 2nds + next years 2nd + Ricky
4 Thomas - 9th + both 2nds + Ricky
5 Adams - 9th + 2nd

I Would base it on matter of importance and it would look like this.

Quinn would be worth the gamble IMO. Johnson would cost much more too.

I don't think Thomas is worth both 2nd's. He's good no doubt, but he's not an elite prospect the way Ferguson and others were. He'd be a solid but unspectacular LT right now.

fullerboy1
04-01-2007, 04:17 AM
Quinn would be worth the gamble IMO. Johnson would cost much more too.

I don't think Thomas is worth both 2nd's. He's good no doubt, but he's not an elite prospect the way Ferguson and others were. He'd be a solid but unspectacular LT right now.

But how would you evaluate the top 5 then.

Agent51
04-01-2007, 06:12 AM
If we are talking what I'd PERSONALLY be willing to give and not what we'd actually have to give, it would be as follows:

Russell: Absolutely nothing. In fact, I'd pass on him even if he fell to #9
Quinn: 1st, either 2nd, 3rd. MAYBE even 1st and BOTH 2nds instead of one 2nd and one 3rd. We NEED a franchise QB, it's been 8 damn years since Marino retired, enough with the garbage QBs already. Nobody is going to forget about Marino if you bring in another young stud QB, so stop *****footing and do it already.
Johnson: As much as I think he is a great playmaker, I would honestly say nothing more than a 1st and 1 or two 2nd day picks . WRs just don't get the ball enough, and currently we don't even have anyone to throw him the ball. Chambers is a Pro Bowl WR and he doesn't single-handedly win us games, so why would Johnson be any different?
Thomas: Only if he fell
Adams: Only if he fell

fullerboy1
04-01-2007, 02:26 PM
If we are talking what I'd PERSONALLY be willing to give and not what we'd actually have to give, it would be as follows:

Russell: Absolutely nothing. In fact, I'd pass on him even if he fell to #9
Quinn: 1st, either 2nd, 3rd. MAYBE even 1st and BOTH 2nds instead of one 2nd and one 3rd. We NEED a franchise QB, it's been 8 damn years since Marino retired, enough with the garbage QBs already. Nobody is going to forget about Marino if you bring in another young stud QB, so stop *****footing and do it already.
Johnson: As much as I think he is a great playmaker, I would honestly say nothing more than a 1st and 1 or two 2nd day picks . WRs just don't get the ball enough, and currently we don't even have anyone to throw him the ball. Chambers is a Pro Bowl WR and he doesn't single-handedly win us games, so why would Johnson be any different?
Thomas: Only if he fell
Adams: Only if he fell

I respect your opinion but I dissagree with your evaluation of Johnson,
he may only touch the ball 6 or 7 times a game but him working in conjunction with Chambers, Rickey and Ronnie would make us a much better team offensively. I dont think we should give up on Daunte so fast either.:)

Regan21286
04-01-2007, 02:32 PM
But how would you evaluate the top 5 then.

1 Russell - 9th + filler
2 Quinn - 9th + 2nd + next years 2nd or this year's 3rd+7th
3 Johnson - 9th + both 2nds + next years 2nd+3rd
4 Thomas - 9th + 23rd
5 Adams - 9th

fullerboy1
04-01-2007, 02:34 PM
1 Russell - 9th + filler
2 Quinn - 9th + 2nd + next years 2nd or this year's 3rd+7th
3 Johnson - 9th + both 2nds + next years 2nd+3rd
4 Thomas - 9th + 23rd
5 Adams - 9th

Respect bro.

Paul 13
04-02-2007, 12:52 AM
Joe Thomas is good, he isn't that good. Why do all that when we could still draft an impact player in round 1 and trade our 2 seconds to get back in the first round and get Joe Staley, and STILL have our second next year. Yea Joe Thomas is the best LT in this draft, but he isn't worth 4 top 60 picks. Come on, we need line but he isn't a sure thing, he has question marks in a few areas. U only make that kind of move for a franchise QB, not even for a franchise RB I do that (sorry Mike Ditka).


doh, didn't see your reply till now. Anyway, Thomas is the closest thing to a sure thing at LT for a long long time. Many a draft expert have compared him to the second coming of Tony Boselli. Since we haven't had a stud at LT since Webb, it's about time we fill that void. Staley is not in the same league as Thomas, at least not yet. It'll take him at least two years to even come close (IF he develops), Thomas you can start straight away. Staley's favorite team growing up was the Steelers, and when asked who his favorite Steeler was, he didn't name a nasty lineman, he said Bettis/Ward/Stewart in that order. As a converted tight end, I'm not sure he has the toughness we need to play on our line. Not that Bettis and Ward aren't tough physical players, I just would want him to name a lineman instead (Faneca comes to mind).

zach8111
04-02-2007, 01:02 AM
1 Russell - 9th + 2nd
2 Quinn - 9th + 2nd + next years 2nd
3 Johnson - 9th + both 2nds + next years 2nd + Ricky
4 Thomas - 9th + both 2nds + Ricky
5 Adams - 9th + 2nd

I Would base it on matter of importance and it would look like this.
russell-1,2a
quinn-1,2,2b or next yr 2/3
johnson-1,2a,2b or next yr 2,chambers, next year 3 (he will be taken really early in draft)
thomas-nothing. can get almost as good in second rnd
adams-nothing

fullerboy1
04-02-2007, 10:59 AM
russell-1,2a
quinn-1,2,2b or next yr 2/3
johnson-1,2a,2b or next yr 2,chambers, next year 3 (he will be taken really early in draft)
thomas-nothing. can get almost as good in second rnd
adams-nothing

I can live with that.:D

fullerboy1
04-03-2007, 10:53 AM
What will happen if we went with Gaines would anyone be upset.

Lee2000
04-03-2007, 12:33 PM
The front office continues to stress that the team will be built by the draft. There are too many holes on the roster to give up picks. I do not see Miami giving up signficiant picks to move up. I do see them possibly moving down and getting more picks. The offensive line must be addressed. Giving up 2nd round picks to move up doesn't make much sense. Miami has this thing for giving up 2nd round picks (lol). I expect Miami to stay or drop down.

Lee2000

Kdawg954
04-03-2007, 05:41 PM
doh, didn't see your reply till now. Anyway, Thomas is the closest thing to a sure thing at LT for a long long time. Many a draft expert have compared him to the second coming of Tony Boselli. Since we haven't had a stud at LT since Webb, it's about time we fill that void. Staley is not in the same league as Thomas, at least not yet. It'll take him at least two years to even come close (IF he develops), Thomas you can start straight away. Staley's favorite team growing up was the Steelers, and when asked who his favorite Steeler was, he didn't name a nasty lineman, he said Bettis/Ward/Stewart in that order. As a converted tight end, I'm not sure he has the toughness we need to play on our line. Not that Bettis and Ward aren't tough physical players, I just would want him to name a lineman instead (Faneca comes to mind).

Yea, because everything the experts say are sure things end up being "sure things" :rolleyes2 . Dbrick is much more poised to be a stud LT in the NFL than Joe Thomas . . . . and Robert Gallery was supposed to be this elite LT comming out and he is even struggling at Guard from what I hear. Point is, u don't trade away your draft for anybody, especially an OLinemen, I'm sorry.

Staley as a converted TE . . . more than toughness . . . has the foot speed desired in a LT. I am by no means saying he is a better LT prospect than Joe Thomas, because I dont think he is (he could end up being a better NFL player tho) . . . but u can grab Joe Staley w/o giving up more picks . . . Thomas would take atleast another second and most likely more.

fullerboy1
04-03-2007, 06:47 PM
The front office continues to stress that the team will be built by the draft. There are too many holes on the roster to give up picks. I do not see Miami giving up signficiant picks to move up. I do see them possibly moving down and getting more picks. The offensive line must be addressed. Giving up 2nd round picks to move up doesn't make much sense. Miami has this thing for giving up 2nd round picks (lol). I expect Miami to stay or drop down.

Lee2000

I could understand what you are saying but can we afford to let an true talent pass us by just for the sake of having a second round pick, I dont think so, we need people who can make this team dangerous offensively and deadly defensively.

fullerboy1
04-03-2007, 06:57 PM
Who would that be for us?

fullerboy1
04-04-2007, 02:21 AM
Who would that be for us?

Another question, how many times have we had the position to trade up for an elite prospect, hmm I cant seem to remember but somewhere we have to take a chance and make hard choices and I think this draft will be a good time to make those choices. I´ve been a Dolfins fan since I can remember, It seems we take a pretty conservative approach to to the draft every year, and we seem to get little rewards when it is all said and done.
This draft is loaded with talent on the offensive side but there are few super prospects, but one guy who I think is a super prospect is C. Johnson but if we stay put he would be long gone. If I where GM I would take the chance and grab him, we could still go the conservative route next year.

fullerboy1
04-04-2007, 01:37 PM
Would anyone give up two first for C. Johnson.

fullerboy1
04-05-2007, 04:45 AM
Yea, because everything the experts say are sure things end up being "sure things" :rolleyes2 . Dbrick is much more poised to be a stud LT in the NFL than Joe Thomas . . . . and Robert Gallery was supposed to be this elite LT comming out and he is even struggling at Guard from what I hear. Point is, u don't trade away your draft for anybody, especially an OLinemen, I'm sorry.

Staley as a converted TE . . . more than toughness . . . has the foot speed desired in a LT. I am by no means saying he is a better LT prospect than Joe Thomas, because I dont think he is (he could end up being a better NFL player tho) . . . but u can grab Joe Staley w/o giving up more picks . . . Thomas would take atleast another second and most likely more.

Good point!

fullerboy1
04-05-2007, 03:41 PM
Yea, because everything the experts say are sure things end up being "sure things" :rolleyes2 . Dbrick is much more poised to be a stud LT in the NFL than Joe Thomas . . . . and Robert Gallery was supposed to be this elite LT comming out and he is even struggling at Guard from what I hear. Point is, u don't trade away your draft for anybody, especially an OLinemen, I'm sorry.

Staley as a converted TE . . . more than toughness . . . has the foot speed desired in a LT. I am by no means saying he is a better LT prospect than Joe Thomas, because I dont think he is (he could end up being a better NFL player tho) . . . but u can grab Joe Staley w/o giving up more picks . . . Thomas would take atleast another second and most likely more.

Staley is sure climbing at the moment do you think he would be a good pick at the 9th spot?