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View Full Version : The question of "Unproven Players"



Finascious D
04-08-2007, 11:42 PM
I'll probably get flamed a bit, but what the heck.

Many draftniks, posters and columnists have us taking Amobi Okoye with our #9 pick. They say we will do this because Fred Evans and Manny Wright are unproven. My question is, how is Amobi Okoye more proven than these two? None of them have done diddly-poo in the NFL regular season.

Before we go any further please understand, there is a difference between "unproven" and "more talented", so please don't quote Amobi Okoye's measurables or give me endless sound bites about his vast upside and tender age. (Besides, most of that has already been said about Manny Wright.)

My point is, the same eyes and brains that have analyzed Amobi Okoye, (with regards to the Dolphins) have also analyzed Manny & Fred. They mostly believe if Fred was given time to get into the NFL game a bit he will be a pretty good player for us. They also believe that if Manny gets his head right, then he could dominate. Not just the coaches and scouts either, but many of our very own Pro Bowl defenders feel the same way.

I guess the point of this long winded post, is to say that, don't believe the hype. Drafting a certain player because other guys on your roster are unproven is a foolish suggestion. Chances are the unproven players, (as is our case at this position) are actually more proven in NFL terms, than a rookie. You should only draft someone because they are significantly better than someone on your roster, (especially a first rounder) unless of course you are a player or two away from glory.

SgtPhin
04-08-2007, 11:56 PM
I totally agree. At least Evans and Manny are on the roster and should be given the opportunity to prove their worth before they get cast aside.

GRYPHONK
04-09-2007, 12:16 AM
Well, if we draft Okoye I would believe it would be because Mueler believes he is significantly better then Wright and Evans. I personally believe he is. But we shall see.

Crowder52
04-09-2007, 12:31 AM
I'll probably get flamed a bit, but what the heck.

Many draftniks, posters and columnists have us taking Amobi Okoye with our #9 pick. They say we will do this because Fred Evans and Manny Wright are unproven. My question is, how is Amobi Okoye more proven than these two? None of them have done diddly-poo in the NFL regular season.

Before we go any further please understand, there is a difference between "unproven" and "more talented", so please don't quote Amobi Okoye's measurables or give me endless sound bites about his vast upside and tender age. (Besides, most of that has already been said about Manny Wright.)

My point is, the same eyes and brains that have analyzed Amobi Okoye, (with regards to the Dolphins) have also analyzed Manny & Fred. They mostly believe if Fred was given time to get into the NFL game a bit he will be a pretty good player for us. They also believe that if Manny gets his head right, then he could dominate. Not just the coaches and scouts either, but many of our very own Pro Bowl defenders feel the same way.

I guess the point of this long winded post, is to say that, don't believe the hype. Drafting a certain player because other guys on your roster are unproven is a foolish suggestion. Chances are the unproven players, (as is our case at this position) are actually more proven in NFL terms, than a rookie. You should only draft someone because they are significantly better than someone on your roster, (especially a first rounder) unless of course you are a player or two away from glory.


I strongly disagree. Not drafting a player because their is a slight chance that a former 5th or 6th rounder might pan out...now that's a foolish suggestion in my opinion.

Finascious D
04-09-2007, 01:05 AM
I strongly disagree. Not drafting a player because their is a slight chance that a former 5th or 6th rounder might pan out...now that's a foolish suggestion in my opinion.

How is it relevant what round someone WAS picked in? They've been to practice and preseason and maybe even had some regular season action, a coach or scout knows way more about the player they already have. If it is based solely on where a player was drafted then, according to your theory the Patriots should take Quinn or Russell, heck even Stanton. I've never heard anything negative about Fred Evans, from our coaching staff. In fact, all I've ever heard is how he is going to be a force on our D-Line. That is way more proven than a 19 yr old rookie. So why not spend the pick on an area where they maybe a greater void on the roster? I'm not saying you should never try to improve EVERY position on your team, but considering the wide array of talent available at the #9 spot, go for a blatant need.

I think we get too caught up in the seemingly subjective nature of rating draftees by round. It really becomes irrelevant when the draft is over and the season begins.

Crowder52
04-09-2007, 01:20 AM
How is it relevant what round someone WAS picked in? They've been to practice and preseason and maybe even had some regular season action, a coach or scout knows way more about the player they already have. If it is based solely on where a player was drafted then, according to your theory the Patriots should take Quinn or Russell, heck even Stanton. I've never heard anything negative about Fred Evans, from our coaching staff. In fact, all I've ever heard is how he is going to be a force on our D-Line. That is way more proven than a 19 yr old rookie. So why not spend the pick on an area where they maybe a greater void on the roster? I'm not saying you should never try to improve EVERY position on your team, but considering the wide array of talent available at the #9 spot, go for a blatant need.

I think we get too caught up in the seemingly subjective nature of rating draftees by round. It really becomes irrelevant when the draft is over and the season begins.

These guys are drafted in the rounds they are for a reason. For example, there was a higher chance of Carson Palmer succeeding after sitting out a year than there was for Charlie Frye. It's not like the physical measurements and game tapes that got them their grades in the first place are somehow irrelevant after the draft is over. The round you got drafted in is still a good indication of talent level.

Of course, there are exceptions. Some late round players turn out to be stars and some first round players turn out to be busts. But first rounders are first rounders because they are usually more talented.

Fred Evans hasn't done squat in a meaningful game. If you have Okoye as the highest rated player on your board and you are the Dolphins, you take him without giving Evans a second thought. I don't know why you are getting so hung up on the word "proven" but of course no college player has proven anything at the NFL level. It's a pretty obvious and pointless statement to make.

Using your logic, we don't take Brady Quinn because we have Cleo Lemon and the coaches said they were impressed with him one day. And we don't take Ted Ginn, because we have Marcus Vick and one of the cornerbacks on the team said he was good. :confused:

Finascious D
04-09-2007, 01:44 AM
These guys are drafted in the rounds they are for a reason. For example, there was a higher chance of Carson Palmer succeeding after sitting out a year than there was for Charlie Frye. It's not like the physical measurements and game tapes that got them their grades in the first place are somehow irrelevant after the draft is over. The round you got drafted in is still a good indication of talent level.

Of course, there are exceptions. Some late round players turn out to be stars and some first round players turn out to be busts. But first rounders are first rounders because they are usually more talented.

Fred Evans hasn't done squat in a meaningful game. If you have Okoye as the highest rated player on your board and you are the Dolphins, you take him without giving Evans a second thought. I don't know why you are getting so hung up on the word "proven" but of course no college player has proven anything at the NFL level. It's a pretty obvious and pointless statement to make.

Using your logic, we don't take Brady Quinn because we have Cleo Lemon and the coaches said they were impressed with him one day. And we don't take Ted Ginn, because we have Marcus Vick and one of the cornerbacks on the team said he was good. :confused:

First of all, you're right its a good INDICATION, but that's hardly the whole story. The draft is a gamble, and all the game tape in the world does NOT on a CONSISTENT basis back up squat on an NFL field when all is said and done. If it did, every teams first through third picks would still be on their teams, after 5 years. The point is, HOW MUCH better could a drafted player be than a current young player. Especially at the cost of a first rounder.

Also, your swipe at me about Lemon and Quinn is silly, in that no one from the team has come out and said Lemon was going to be a dominant force, like they have about Evans.

Secondly, my original post, was in defense of drafting a player based on evaluations, not simply, a current player being unproven, as I've read in too many mock drafts, like the one Foxsports.com. So apparently, its not too pointless to make that comment.

Thirdly, your comment about Vick and Ginn, as it pertains to my original point is...well...:rolleyes2

Crowder52
04-09-2007, 02:15 AM
First of all, you're right its a good INDICATION, but that's hardly the whole story. The draft is a gamble, and all the game tape in the world does NOT on a CONSISTENT basis back up squat on an NFL field when all is said and done. If it did, every teams first through third picks would still be on their teams, after 5 years. The point is, HOW MUCH better could a drafted player be than a current young player. Especially at the cost of a first rounder.

Also, your swipe at me about Lemon and Quinn is silly, in that no one from the team has come out and said Lemon was going to be a dominant force, like they have about Evans.

Secondly, my original post, was in defense of drafting a player based on evaluations, not simply, a current player being unproven, as I've read in too many mock drafts, like the one Foxsports.com. So apparently, its not too pointless to make that comment.

Thirdly, your comment about Vick and Ginn, as it pertains to my original point is...well...:rolleyes2

That was your point? That's not much of a point at all. Okoye could be a hundred times better than Evans for all we know. Evans could be a bum and Okoye could be a Pro Bowler. Then again, he could turn out to be worse. Chances are, though, that he will be better. That's why he has a first round grade.

The comment about Vick and Lemon is actually a pretty good analogy for what you said about Evans. They are unproven, so using your logic, we shouldn't draft anyone at that position because there is a chance they might turn out to be good. That's not taking a swipe at you...it's applying your original argument to other positions on the team to show how ill conceived it is.

If you want to argue over semantics that Foxsports is using in their mock drafts, then that's one thing. But when you said college players haven't proved anything in the NFL, that wasn't exactly groundbreaking stuff there.

Finascious D
04-09-2007, 02:36 AM
That was your point? That's not much of a point at all. Okoye could be a hundred times better than Evans for all we know. Evans could be a bum and Okoye could be a Pro Bowler. Then again, he could turn out to be worse. Chances are, though, that he will be better. That's why he has a first round grade.

The comment about Vick and Lemon is actually a pretty good analogy for what you said about Evans. They are unproven, so using your logic, we shouldn't draft anyone at that position because there is a chance they might turn out to be good. That's not taking a swipe at you...it's applying your original argument to other positions on the team to show how ill conceived it is.

If you want to argue over semantics that Foxsports is using in their mock drafts, then that's one thing. But when you said college players haven't proved anything in the NFL, that wasn't exactly groundbreaking stuff there.

Yes it is very valid point. We know Evans is not a bum, because the COACHES have seen him play and practice with other PRO players and feel he he is ready for the big show, or at the very least, they've said as much.

You, on the other hand, seem to believe, that if a player has a number placed in front of him by Mel Kiper, based on his college play and workouts, that he is automatically better than someone else on the team that wasn't drafted at a comparable numbered position. That is naive. You can list for me all the players that have played equal to their draft positions and I will name you ten to each one that didn't and another 3 they played better. If I'm wrong about that then there would be 1000's of players in the NFL right now.

I also never said that we shouldn't draft that position ever because we have Fred Evans. I said we shouldn't drop a first rounder on the position, when we can fill a more glaring need like a speedy WR, CB, OL, etc. I don't think it would be wise to pay a first round salary for a guy that probably won't be drastically better than what we have. This ain't Madden.

If we are really applying analogies to arguments then why don't you use your argument and defend taking Todd Blackledge (Picked 7th) over Dan Marino (Picked 27th). After all, chances are Blackledge will be better.

Crowder52
04-09-2007, 03:01 AM
Yes it is very valid point. We know Evans is not a bum, because the COACHES have seen him play and practice with other PRO players and feel he he is ready for the big show, or at the very least, they've said as much.

You, on the other hand, seem to believe, that if a player has a number placed in front of him by Mel Kiper, based on his college play and workouts, that he is automatically better than someone else on the team that wasn't drafted at a comparable numbered position. That is naive. You can list for me all the players that have played equal to their draft positions and I will name you ten to each one that didn't and another 3 they played better. If I'm wrong about that then there would be 1000's of players in the NFL right now.

I also never said that we shouldn't draft that position ever because we have Fred Evans. I said we shouldn't drop a first rounder on the position, when we can fill a more glaring need like a speedy WR, CB, OL, etc. I don't think it would be wise to pay a first round salary for a guy that probably won't be drastically better than what we have. This ain't Madden.

If we are really applying analogies to arguments then why don't you use your argument and defend taking Todd Blackledge (Picked 7th) over Dan Marino (Picked 27th). After all, chances are Blackledge will be better.

:lol: I don't think you even read my post.

I certainly didn't say that a player was automatically better if they were drafted higher. In fact, I specifically said there is a chance Okoye could be worse than Fred Evans.

And about the Marino and Blackledge thing...you really aren't making any sense because you are talking about past players, while I am talking about players who haven't proven anything in the NFL. It's easy to go back and hand pick the players who outperformed their draft position in hindsight, but that doesn't really accomplish anything.

The fact is, the higher a player is drafted, the higher their chance of success in the NFL (*note the use of the word chance). For proof, take a look at the Pro Bowl rosters from last year or any year for that matter. A higher percentage of them were drafted in the 1st round than any other round by a long shot.

Of course you can find the exceptions if you go back in time, but that doesn't make my argument any less valid. I already admitted that there were exceptions, so I'm not sure what you are trying to prove...

taylormvp99
04-09-2007, 03:10 AM
I agree totally. These guys should be given a chance before they draft another DT. It's not like they are counting on these young guys this year. If they passed on Okoye or Branch for that matter, they still have Holliday and Traylor. Manny Wright would have been a 1st round pick had he stayed in college and not gone in the supplemental draft. Rod Wright would have been a 1st round pick if he didn't get hurt. Fred Evans has shown a lot of promise in practice. I say do not draft any DTs and see what these guys can do. It's not like they're strong at every other position. How about a young CB that is not named Travis Daniels? That would be nice.

LarryFinFan
04-09-2007, 11:31 AM
If you can't see the difference between Akoye and Wright/Evans, then it might be too much to explain.

The difference in their college careers (between Akoye and Wright or Evans), athletic ability, and upside is obvious. How would you compare say, Brady Quinn to Hamdan ?? Neither has proven much at this level, but if I had a choice to be on a roster, it would certainly be Quinn ?? Same with Akoye...I'll take Akoye over either of the young guys on our roster right now...

Crowder52
04-09-2007, 01:23 PM
If you can't see the difference between Akoye and Wright/Evans, then it might be too much to explain.

The difference in their college careers (between Akoye and Wright or Evans), athletic ability, and upside is obvious. How would you compare say, Brady Quinn to Hamdan ?? Neither has proven much at this level, but if I had a choice to be on a roster, it would certainly be Quinn ?? Same with Akoye...I'll take Akoye over either of the young guys on our roster right now...

:yes: