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View Full Version : There have been 26 QBs to win Superbowls



Finascious D
04-09-2007, 12:53 AM
I began this experiment in research to justify, of all things, taking Ted Ginn Jr. with #9 even if Quinn is still available.

As stated in the title, there have been 26 QBs to win Superbowls out of those, 13 were first round picks. That's 50%. Exactly half. (Assuming if Wikipedia & NFL.com are correct.)

Bart Starr Round 17/ Pick 200
Joe Namath Round 1/ Pick 12
Len Dawson Round 1/ Pick 5
Johnny Unitas Round 9 / Pick 102 |
Roger Staubach Round 10/ Pick 129
Bob Griese Round 1/ Pick 4
Terry Bradshaw Round 1/ Pick 1
Ken Stabler Round 2/Pick ??
Jim Plunkett Round 1/ Pick 1
Joe Montana Round 3 / Pick 12
Joe Theismann Round 4 / Pick 99
Jim McMahon Round 1/ Pick 5
Phil Simms Round 1/ Pick 7
Doug Williams Round 1/ Pick 17
Jeff Hostetler Round 3/ Pick 59
Mark Rypien Round 6/ Pick 146
Troy Aikman Round 1 / Pick 1
Steve Young Not Drafted (Played in USFL)
Brett Favre Round 2 / Pick 33
John Elway Round 1 / Pick 1
Kurt Warner Undrafted
Trent Dilfer Round 1 / Pick 6
Tom Brady Round 6 / Pick 199
Brad Johnson Round 9 / Pick 227
Ben Roethlisberger Round 1 / Pick 11
Peyton Manning Round 1 / Pick 1

Not only that, but since 1982, 52 QB's have been taken in the first round and only 8 have won. That's about 15%.

*NOTE: Before reading any further please know I am not one to believe that a QB makes a Superbowl winning team, necessarily.

I think, as much as I like Quinn, that based on these odds that someone other than Quinn would be a safer pick for achieving our goal of winning it all. Unless a QB is evaluated by your scouts and staff, as a can't miss, once in a lifetime prospect, I'm not sure its ever a good idea to spend a 1 on him.

Of course, I may be wrong and a numbers freak like CK could point out how I've lead these innocent numbers astray. Just thought this was interesting, anyone else?

Crowder52
04-09-2007, 01:24 AM
Interesting numbers you dug up there. If you want to do it for the Ginn vs. Quinn argument though, maybe you should look up 1st round WR picks and give a % of them that were starters for Super Bowl winners. Then we would have a comparison!

TexanPhinatic
04-09-2007, 01:41 AM
I think 50% of first round QBs winning the SB is actually a solid number. When you consider the amount of QBs taken in the first, and the fact that only 1 can possibly win every year, and there are the occassional repeats etc-seems good. Kinda like baseball. A .400 average is considered insane, but thats 4 out of 10 at bats with a hit. Relativity.

I think it would be difficult to do a study like this with most positions though, as QB is generally only 1 per team, vs. 2 or more at most other spots. So dunno how a WR one would turn out.

All in all, I just look at the top tier teams in the league and see good QBs and often 1st round QBs. And Quinn is just one hell of a prospect-he shows dedication and excellence at a position that demands both.

Regan21286
04-09-2007, 01:44 AM
The last two were 1st round QB's. In fact, the last QB to win it for us or take us to a SB were 1st rounders. You also have to note that getting a 1st round QB isn't the only thing you need to do to go to the Super Bowl. You gotta build protection and defense, which Indy did (keep in mind, Manning really suffered when he had a bad OL and D). You can't just draft a guy and put everything on his shoulders all the time. Many times, teams that draft a QB in the 1st round are teams that have 0 hope due to incompetency in coaching and management.

Generally all that history shows that you can win a Superbowl with a so-so game manager at QB (Dilfer, Johnson) backed up by an utterly dominating D (which we've tried before and failed), a 1st round QB(Aikman, Manning, Roethlisberger, Elway) with a decent support crew (which we haven't tried yet), or just get plain lottery-kind of luck at QB(Brady, Warner) with a decent support crew (like we have that kind of luck).

Finascious D
04-09-2007, 01:52 AM
The last two were 1st round QB's. In fact, the last QB to win it for us or take us to a SB were 1st rounders. You also have to note that getting a 1st round QB isn't the only thing you need to do to go to the Super Bowl. You gotta build protection and defense, which Indy did (keep in mind, Manning really suffered when he had a bad OL and D). You can't just draft a guy and put everything on his shoulders all the time. Many times, teams that draft a QB in the 1st round are teams that have 0 hope due to incompetency in coaching and management.

Generally all that history shows that you can win a Superbowl with a so-so game manager at QB (Dilfer, Johnson) backed up by an utterly dominating D (which we've tried before and failed), a 1st round QB(Aikman, Manning, Roethlisberger, Elway) with a decent support crew (which we haven't tried yet), or just get plain lottery-kind of luck at QB(Brady, Warner) with a decent support crew (like we have that kind of luck).

Yeah, but the two years before the last QB to take us to the promised land, the QBs were low rounders. Heck, the 2 years before Big Ben and the Steelers won the QBs weren't first rounders. I keep coming back to 52 QBs taken since 82 in the first and only 8 have won it.

HybridPHIN 23
04-09-2007, 02:02 AM
well we are going to draft a qb, its been too long now.......... i understand being hesitant to use a 1st on one.... but if you take a closer look...... like at all the teams who've been making the playoffs the past few years you'll see a suprisingly high % of the teams are led by former 1sts under Center....
now don't get me wrong i'd rather we find the best QB in the later rounds but chances are that can't happen.
Also: why Ted Ginn ?? Not disagreeing really, just curious why when either Landry or Willis or Carriker or Branch or all of them could also be available.

TexanPhinatic
04-09-2007, 02:02 AM
Yeah, but the two years before the last QB to take us to the promised land, the QBs were low rounders. Heck, the 2 years before Big Ben and the Steelers won the QBs weren't first rounders. I keep coming back to 52 QBs taken since 82 in the first and only 8 have won it.

Tom Brady is one in a million, and Brad Johnson won solely because of that defense. I think when you look at numbers like this you tend to lose touch with the reality of the situation, which is that Quinn is the best prospect since Manning. Will he have as much success? Who knows, but hes geared up to do just that.

Finascious D
04-09-2007, 02:15 AM
Also: why Ted Ginn ?? Not disagreeing really, just curious why when either Landry or Willis or Carriker or Branch or all of them could also be available.

Boomer and CK, have convinced me in other threads. I hold their evaluation abilities to a very high regard. They always seem right. I know, that's lame, but they spend a lot more time at it then I ever will.

Plus, I long for the day I can see a WR take a pass in the flats and turn out a 30+ yard TD. I just want to be excited when the offense is out there again. Not just the "Chambers just made a circus catch for a 1st down" excited, but like jump out of my seat and drop to me knees while screaming GO! excited.

Finascious D
04-09-2007, 02:19 AM
Tom Brady is one in a million, and Brad Johnson won solely because of that defense. I think when you look at numbers like this you tend to lose touch with the reality of the situation, which is that Quinn is the best prospect since Manning. Will he have as much success? Who knows, but hes geared up to do just that.

Firstly, this was response to another post that said essentially "the past 2 superbowl winning QBs were first rounders, so that's why we should take a QB in the first."

Secondly, there have been many "best prospects" since Manning, Rothesliberger wasn't considered that even though he was a first rounder, and has been pretty successful.

Look, I'm not saying Brady won't be great, I'm just saying, playing the odds, it may not be best to draft a QB in the first round.

Regan21286
04-09-2007, 02:23 AM
Yeah, but the two years before the last QB to take us to the promised land, the QBs were low rounders. Heck, the 2 years before Big Ben and the Steelers won the QBs weren't first rounders. I keep coming back to 52 QBs taken since 82 in the first and only 8 have won it.

True, but you also have to note just how many non-first QB's go through the draft. That makes a much less % of QB's who go to the Super Bowl. Finding a low round QB to take you to the promised land is a very improbable gamble, like winning a lottery. I think you have an equal or worse shot at winning a Super Bowl by drafting a non-1st/2nd round QB. Unless you hedge your bets like say build the most dominant D in history, you have a very small chance. Guys like Jay Fiedler, Sage Rosenfels, AJ Feeley, Josh Heupel, all low round QB's have done nothing for us. And there are hundreds of other cases just like them. But also note that scouting QB's is not as detailed as it is now. Scouting has evolved.

taylormvp99
04-09-2007, 02:26 AM
There is no way I would take a WR at 9 because there is no way Calvin Johnson falls that far. This is one of the deepest reciever classes in history and one of them is bound to fall to pick 40. Even if one of them doesn't, it's no big loss.

salmael
04-09-2007, 03:25 AM
I keep coming back to 52 QBs taken since 82 in the first and only 8 have won it.


Here's an interesting fact to add to your pondering.....Since 1982 only 18 different quarterbacks have won super bowls.

Also Steve Young was taken by the Bucs with the first pick of the supplemental draft, which was deducted from the Bucs in the 1986 draft(on nfl.com the first pick of that year is selection 2). So in reality Young should count as a 1st rounder drafted after 1982 as well, bringing the total of Qb's drafted in the first round since 1982 up to 53, with 9 of them winning it all.

So even though just 9 of the 53 Qb's taken in the first round have won the super bowl, that 9 still equals half of the SB winning qb's since 1982.

Additionally Tom Brady is the only non first rounder drafted since 82 to win multiple super bowls. The other 2 Qb's to win multiple rings that were drafted since 82 are Aikman and Elway both first rounders.

So taking everything into consideration I would say that the 1st round qb's taken since 82 have done alright for themselves overall.

BlueFin
04-09-2007, 06:59 AM
I began this experiment in research to justify, of all things, taking Ted Ginn Jr. with #9 even if Quinn is still available.

As stated in the title, there have been 26 QBs to win Superbowls out of those, 13 were first round picks. That's 50%. Exactly half. (Assuming if Wikipedia & NFL.com are correct.)

Bart Starr Round 17/ Pick 200
Joe Namath Round 1/ Pick 12
Len Dawson Round 1/ Pick 5
Johnny Unitas Round 9 / Pick 102 |
Roger Staubach Round 10/ Pick 129
Bob Griese Round 1/ Pick 4
Terry Bradshaw Round 1/ Pick 1
Ken Stabler Round 2/Pick ??
Jim Plunkett Round 1/ Pick 1
Joe Montana Round 3 / Pick 12
Joe Theismann Round 4 / Pick 99
Jim McMahon Round 1/ Pick 5
Phil Simms Round 1/ Pick 7
Doug Williams Round 1/ Pick 17
Jeff Hostetler Round 3/ Pick 59
Mark Rypien Round 6/ Pick 146
Troy Aikman Round 1 / Pick 1
Steve Young Not Drafted (Played in USFL)
Brett Favre Round 2 / Pick 33
John Elway Round 1 / Pick 1
Kurt Warner Undrafted
Trent Dilfer Round 1 / Pick 6
Tom Brady Round 6 / Pick 199
Brad Johnson Round 9 / Pick 227
Ben Roethlisberger Round 1 / Pick 11
Peyton Manning Round 1 / Pick 1

Not only that, but since 1982, 52 QB's have been taken in the first round and only 8 have won. That's about 15%.

*NOTE: Before reading any further please know I am not one to believe that a QB makes a Superbowl winning team, necessarily.

I think, as much as I like Quinn, that based on these odds that someone other than Quinn would be a safer pick for achieving our goal of winning it all. Unless a QB is evaluated by your scouts and staff, as a can't miss, once in a lifetime prospect, I'm not sure its ever a good idea to spend a 1 on him.

Of course, I may be wrong and a numbers freak like CK could point out how I've lead these innocent numbers astray. Just thought this was interesting, anyone else?

Now, ask yourself this?

Whats the percentage of the total overall draft picks and undrafted free agents that are first round picks?

Would it be somewhere around 10 percent or less?

So your telling me that 10 percent or less of the available players have won 50 percent of the superbowls? Sounds like your best odds of winning a superbowl is by having a first round pick quarterbacking your team.

I'm only estimating this in my head, but it seems pretty obvious to me.

Whats the percentage of superbowl wins for 2nd rounder QB's?

3rd?

4th?

5th?

6th?

7th?

undrafted free agents?

Not too good for those seven categories individually huh?

I also would remind you that Steve Young was a sure fire high first rounder that wasn't drafted there simply because he already signed a mega deal with the USFL.

Lester
04-09-2007, 10:50 AM
Thanks for the info.

To me though it says that an overwhelming percentage of superbowl winning qbs are first round pics compared to any other round.

Out of all the rounds, qbs taken i the 1st round make up half the teams winning super bowls.

In the end though, It doesn't matter where they are drafted, it matters if they can play. If you get a chance at getting a qb that looks like he can be a star, you go for him.

I don't know enough about Quinn to know though.

brparkway
04-09-2007, 11:56 AM
Thanks for the info.

To me though it says that an overwhelming percentage of superbowl winning qbs are first round pics compared to any other round.

Out of all the rounds, qbs taken i the 1st round make up half the teams winning super bowls.

In the end though, It doesn't matter where they are drafted, it matters if they can play. If you get a chance at getting a qb that looks like he can be a star, you go for him.

I don't know enough about Quinn to know though.

Exactly. If you're playing the percentages (using only SB winners as the criteria), first rounders are far and away the best bet, 6-1 over 2nd or 3rd rounders. If you're betting the other way, stay away from Vegas.

However, a better comparison would be QB effectiveness, not just championships, which is more subjective. Was Marino worth a 1st round pick? How about Jim Kelly? Then Dan Fouts and Fran Tarkenton were 3rd rounders. You need a lot more research to come up with a thorough round comparison. I'm sure somebody has, and they're probably getting paid for it.

DeFINSeWins
04-09-2007, 12:09 PM
based on your reasoning, if dan marino was available first round we should pass on him as well b/c he wont win us a super bowl.....

there have been so many qbs come close to winning super bowls or that are game changers that this is completely useless information. There are plenty of "GREAT" quarterbacks that never won a super bowl that i would draft first round in a second.

CC Coach
04-09-2007, 12:42 PM
The stats are interesting but in reality to be successful you have to have a good QB.
It is the most important position in any sport. No other position demands the mental aspect of the game as does the QB position.
Winning the SB is a by product of a lot of things- overall talent, coaching, injuries and luck.
This franchise needs to get Quinn. If he fails so be it. You have to try. After years of stiffs like Fielder, Frerotte, Harrington, CPepp, Lucas, etc. it is time to go for Quinn.

OneHondo
04-09-2007, 01:21 PM
Since we are Miami Dolphin fans lets take the Miami Dolphins for instance. Look at Miami's success over the years and see where our success at quarterback has been. Bob Griese, a 1st round draft choice quarterbacked our most successfull teams and gave us more than one Superbowl. No need to even begin to mention Dan Marino's success. Even though he din't win a Superbowl he did take us to a Superbowl appearence, but continually kept us in the playoffs throughout most of his career and broke most every quarterback record that existed. David Woodley and Don Strock took us to our one other Superbowl appearence. But you can definitely see that most of Miami's success has come from quarterbacks drafted in the 1st round.
You can also factor in the major success stories in the NFL over the years and see a pattern where most long term success can be linked to teams with quarterbacks selected in the 1st round. Miami - Bob Griese - Dan Marino 1st round, San Fransico Steve Young 1st round, Pittsburgh Terry Bradshaw 1st round, Buffalo Jim Kelly 1st round, Dallas Troy Aikman 1st round, Denver John Elway 1st round. You notice I said "most" long term success as there are exceptions such as Joe Montana and Tom Brady. With the Colts there seems to be a pattern starting with Payton Manning who also is a 1st round pick.