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Phinja
04-10-2007, 03:07 PM
For those of you with ESPN insider:


http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft07/insider/columns/story?columnist=mcshay_todd&id=2826700



For thos of you who dont have it, here is a particularly interesting tidbit:




6. If you need a franchise quarterback, get him in the first round or forget about it
It's not quite that cut-and-dried, but it's closer than one might think. Quarterbacks are the toughest players to project in terms of pro potential. No position has as many variables (system, supporting cast, level of competition, etc.) or as much of a premium put on intangibles (leadership, mental toughness, competitiveness, etc.). It also doesn't help that quarterbacks typically are drafted higher than their value because of the importance of the position.
The ones taken near the top of the draft often are thrown into the fire prematurely and expected to deliver unreasonable results, especially considering the marginal supporting cast that landed the team a top-10 draft pick in the first place.
Add it all up and it's no wonder the quarterback position has delivered some epic busts -- Heath Shuler (Redskins) in 1994; Jim Druckenmiller (49ers) in 1997; Ryan Leaf (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=4255) (Chargers) in 1998; Akili Smith (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=4651) (Bengals), Cade McNown (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=4660) (Bears) and Tim Couch (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=4649) (Browns) in 1999; Joey Harrington (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5889) (Lions) in 2002; and Kyle Boller (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=6355) (Ravens) in 2003. Unfortunately, studies show that the majority of NFL starting quarterbacks are found in Round 1. Of the 32 NFL starters in 2006, nearly 60 percent were first-round draft choices. Sure, an occasional star is born from the later rounds, but for every Tom Brady (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5228), Jake Delhomme (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=4555) and Tony Romo (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=6624), there are a hundred Gibran Hamdans, Tony Grazianis and Kerry Josephs trying to earn a paycheck from NFL Europa, the Arena League and the Canadian Football League.


This article discusses the validity of the draft day "rules" that many teams adhere to. Its a good read...

phinphan11
04-10-2007, 03:24 PM
I love it....Joey Harrington (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5889) on the 'epic busts' list... heh, heh.

Now we know what so many Detroit fans were trying to tell us last season that so many people refused to listen to.

sn9ke.eyes
04-10-2007, 03:27 PM
I think where teams get in trouble is grading too much against the other QBs in that year's draft. There can't just be one top end QB in every draft, the scouts always find somebody to elevate to the point where there seems to be a competition for the top QB.

Also, you look at lot of these busts and there were several QBs taken in the first round that year. Face it, the '83 draft won't happen again, so stop taking a QB in the first round just because he is a QB.

EBMisfit
04-10-2007, 03:30 PM
6. If you need a franchise quarterback, get him in the first round or forget about itI have four words for anyone who still believes this: Joe, Montana, Tom, and Brady.

WISfinfan13
04-10-2007, 03:37 PM
I have four words for anyone who still believes this: Joe, Montana, Tom, and Brady.


An example of two qb who just happend to fall into the perfect systems...Not even in the top ten in terms of talent...

yankeehillbilly
04-10-2007, 03:40 PM
I have four words for anyone who still believes this: Joe, Montana, Tom, and Brady.

The odds of getting a Brady in the 6th or even a Montana in the 3rd are very very low. It occasionally happens, but its the exception, not the rule. You cant focus on the few players that were later round gems and not consider all those later round QBs that nobody even remembers.

VaDolphan
04-10-2007, 03:49 PM
"Of the 32 NFL starters in 2006, nearly 60 percent were first-round draft choices."

I wonder if they take into account the fact that some of those starting first rounders were starting merely for the fact that they were expensive choices, and their franchise would have been hard pressed to justify starting anyone else.

SoDakDolfan
04-10-2007, 04:03 PM
Nearly 60% means over 40% were not first rounders. You don't have to take a QB in the first round to be successful, you just have to get the right QB and that's the hard part!

Phinja
04-10-2007, 04:55 PM
Nearly 60% means over 40% were not first rounders. You don't have to take a QB in the first round to be successful, you just have to get the right QB and that's the hard part!


Right but that also means the 60% came from ONE round... The First. Split the remaining 40% over the remaining rounds and it looks like this:

Round 1: 60%
Round 2: 9%
Round 3: 9%
Round 4: 0%
Round 5: 0%
Round 6: 11%
Round 7: 0%
Undrafted: 11%

Round one QBs win by a MILE. Not to mention BOTH Superbowl contestants had First rounders. While a QB is NEVER a sure thing, a first rounder is the safest bet. :cooldude:

PHINBRED
04-10-2007, 04:59 PM
I love it....Joey Harrington (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5889) on the 'epic busts' list... heh, heh.

Now we know what so many Detroit fans were trying to tell us last season that so many people refused to listen to.


WE ONLY PAID A SIXTH...

phinphan11
04-10-2007, 05:06 PM
WE ONLY PAID A SIXTH...

Actually we paid a 5th if I'm not mistaken. His playing time boosted it from the 6th. That's still too much to give up for an "epic bust". (Not my list)

Finfan53
04-10-2007, 05:11 PM
It sure is scary taking a QB in the first round after looking at that list. The thing that is alarming is those guys are from the 90's....not the 70's or 80's.... scouting, prodays, combine, interviews, etc.
Teams really get to know players better now than in the earlier days with much better coaching and player development at major colleges...and still these guys are busts
(mostly Pac 10 schools which I think are over-rated except USC of course...evident two years ago with Oregon going undefeated not getting a BCS bowl and losing the bowl game it does go to)

jlfin
04-10-2007, 05:17 PM
I love it....Joey Harrington (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5889) on the 'epic busts' list... heh, heh.

Now we know what so many Detroit fans were trying to tell us last season that so many people refused to listen to.


It's an unfair criticism. Compared to the other names mentioned JH has yet to play with a decent supporting cast and/ or competent coaching.

phinphan11
04-10-2007, 05:31 PM
It's an unfair criticism. Compared to the other names mentioned JH has yet to play with a decent supporting cast and/ or competent coaching.

Not my list... you can slice it anyway you want, but his results are the only thing we can compare since they are facts not fiction.

eomdtbtr
04-10-2007, 05:32 PM
I have four words for anyone who still believes this: Joe, Montana, Tom, and Brady.

I hate it when people do that. You make a reasonable argument, and they have to point out the time that one person defies that rule.

jdang307
04-10-2007, 05:36 PM
funny he mentions Gibran Hamdans, who I think is on our team?

phinphanforever
04-10-2007, 05:49 PM
For those of you with ESPN insider:


http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft07/insider/columns/story?columnist=mcshay_todd&id=2826700 (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft07/insider/columns/story?columnist=mcshay_todd&id=2826700)



For thos of you who dont have it, here is a particularly interesting tidbit:




6. If you need a franchise quarterback, get him in the first round or forget about it
It's not quite that cut-and-dried, but it's closer than one might think. Quarterbacks are the toughest players to project in terms of pro potential. No position has as many variables (system, supporting cast, level of competition, etc.) or as much of a premium put on intangibles (leadership, mental toughness, competitiveness, etc.). It also doesn't help that quarterbacks typically are drafted higher than their value because of the importance of the position.
The ones taken near the top of the draft often are thrown into the fire prematurely and expected to deliver unreasonable results, especially considering the marginal supporting cast that landed the team a top-10 draft pick in the first place.
Add it all up and it's no wonder the quarterback position has delivered some epic busts -- Heath Shuler (Redskins) in 1994; Jim Druckenmiller (49ers) in 1997; Ryan Leaf (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=4255) (Chargers) in 1998; Akili Smith (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=4651) (Bengals), Cade McNown (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=4660) (Bears) and Tim Couch (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=4649) (Browns) in 1999; Joey Harrington (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5889) (Lions) in 2002; and Kyle Boller (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=6355) (Ravens) in 2003. Unfortunately, studies show that the majority of NFL starting quarterbacks are found in Round 1. Of the 32 NFL starters in 2006, nearly 60 percent were first-round draft choices. Sure, an occasional star is born from the later rounds, but for every Tom Brady (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5228), Jake Delhomme (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=4555) and Tony Romo (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=6624), there are a hundred Gibran Hamdans, Tony Grazianis and Kerry Josephs trying to earn a paycheck from NFL Europa, the Arena League and the Canadian Football League.


This article discusses the validity of the draft day "rules" that many teams adhere to. Its a good read...
A little misleading in my opinion. First, the idea that you can "forget about it" if you don't draft in the first round is weak when one examines the stats closer. True, you could say 'nearly 60%" of the starters last year were drafted in the first but I find it more revealing to say 43% of the starters were not drafted in the first. Said differently, almost half the starting QBs were not drafted in the first round. The article mentions Brady, Delhomme and Romo, but doesn't mention Brees, Haselback, Bulger or Favre, a pretty impressive list indeed.
Interestingly, 53% of the starting RBs in the NFL were not drafted in the first round. 15 of the starting RBs were drafted in the first compared to 18 starting QBs, who were drafted in the first.
They note that it is "not cut and dried, but closer than one might think" but I would suggest that the evidence they have presented doesn't really prove anything.

phinphanforever
04-10-2007, 05:54 PM
"Of the 32 NFL starters in 2006, nearly 60 percent were first-round draft choices."

I wonder if they take into account the fact that some of those starting first rounders were starting merely for the fact that they were expensive choices, and their franchise would have been hard pressed to justify starting anyone else.
A most excellent observation.

phinphanforever
04-10-2007, 06:05 PM
It's an unfair criticism. Compared to the other names mentioned JH has yet to play with a decent supporting cast and/ or competent coaching.
I think it is more than fair. Joey is a good guy but he has been a bust. He has also had some very good coaches, one of them an esteemed QB coach.

jlfin
04-10-2007, 09:43 PM
I think it is more than fair. Joey is a good guy but he has been a bust. He has also had some very good coaches, one of them an esteemed QB coach.


Please name me one above average QB who has played for that cursed franchise in the last 30 yrs? Eric Hipple?

phinphanforever
04-10-2007, 09:50 PM
Please name me one above average QB who has played for that cursed franchise in the last 30 yrs? Eric Hipple?
John Kitna.

Phanatical
04-10-2007, 11:49 PM
Great read Phinja.

If Russell or Quinn is available, it's a safe bet the Phins will take a QB. If not, I think there are good options still left. Edwards, Smith, Stanton, etc.

GO PHINS~!

jlfin
04-11-2007, 10:16 AM
John Kitna.


Don't think so. Try again