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View Full Version : Explanation for Quinn's Lack of Big Game Success



Rhody Phins Fan
04-25-2007, 09:04 PM
This is a chat on Baseball Prospectus by Mike Tanier of Football Prospectus and FootballOutsiders.com and he gives a good explanation about why Quinn came up short in big games.

ryan (miami): do you agree with dan le batards take that brady quinn is vastly overrated, a big piece of it because notre dame hasnt won a top 25 game in 2 years under quinn and weiss?

Mike Tanier: Quinn's biggest problem is that his timing is poor.

Quinn sees open receivers, hesitates, and then throws to them when the window is closing. When he's facing USC or Michigan, top-level cornerbacks can recover and top-level safeties can react and close on the ball, generating some turnovers. It's not that Quinn didn't make a proper read or threw an inaccurate pass; he just didn't put all the pieces together and release the ball in time.

That explains why Quinn "disappeared" or "came up small" against top competition. He has other minor problems, but his biggest flaw is very correctable. Quinn's timing will improve over his first few years in the league.

Scouts, unlike columnists, aren't looking at the win-loss column when evaluating quarterbacks. If they did, Trent Edwards would be screwed. They are looking at footwork, throwing motion, release time, pocket presence, velocity, timing, touch, and other nuts and bolts. If you judge a quarterback by what he did in "the big game", you are probably oversimplifying.

Dolphins101
04-25-2007, 09:11 PM
The kid we'll be fine in a year or 2 till then we'll have Green. Just hope we get a LT and a CB that can jump right in from the start.

utahphinsfan
04-25-2007, 09:24 PM
I could swear they said Harrington's "flaws" were correctable too. :D

emocomputerjock
04-25-2007, 09:47 PM
I could swear they said Harrington's "flaws" were correctable too. :D

Harrington and Quinn aren't anywhere near close to comparable at this stage, and that's with Harrington having 5 years in the league. Quinn is already better.

PhinGeneral
04-25-2007, 10:01 PM
I'm not going to tell you Quinn's going to be a star or a bust, because I really haven't seen enough film to really judge that. But I do think this big game stuff is a little overrated with Brady.

First of all, he's never thrown more INT's than TD's in those "big games", so it's not like he's been stinking up the joint.

Secondly, look at a few of those teams for a minute. Michigan has a handful of defensive players likely to be drafted in the 1st and 2nd rounds. There probably aren't a lot of QB's that were going to light it up when that defense felt like playing. As for USC, they only have one of the best defensive minds in football in Pete Carroll. It's rare for any QB to have a great game against them in a big spot. Nonetheless, had Matt Leinart not thrown a nearly perfect pass on 4th and long and gotten an "assist" from Reggie Bush a few years ago, a lot of the talk of Brady not winning big games would have gone out the window.

I also don't think he gets credit for the leadership shown in comebacks like the ones against Mich St. and UCLA.

If he truly stunk it up in big games I'd be concerned. But he really hasn't, and I don't imagine it's so big of a fault that it's enough to brand him for his career.

zach8111
04-25-2007, 10:02 PM
yes he never one a big game but he never had a good team. he made the team. the defense sucked and so did the offense. the next best player on the team was a walk-on jeff samarzja. and he is in MLB now. his runnigback is average but not great, and there whole D was horrible. they had to out score there opponents to win. it is amazing to see them have a winning record

bugs65
04-25-2007, 10:09 PM
Quinn sucks. He loses big games and Notre Dame Quarterbacks are usually overated.
You can make all the excuses for him you like. I am not convinced he is a winner in the NFL. :err:

JT#1
04-25-2007, 10:17 PM
Quinn sucks. He loses big games and Notre Dame Quarterbacks are usually overated.
You can make all the excuses for him you like. I am not convinced he is a winner in the NFL. :err:

if quarterback was all it took to win a big game Dan Marino would have won atleast one super bowl and Elway would have won one when he was in his prime.

Rhody Phins Fan
04-25-2007, 10:28 PM
Quinn sucks. He loses big games and Notre Dame Quarterbacks are usually overated.
You can make all the excuses for him you like. I am not convinced he is a winner in the NFL. :err:

Quarterbacks don't lose big games. Teams lose big games. The same thing was said about Peyton Manning but I guess that was wrong.

OneHondo
04-25-2007, 11:47 PM
Quinn sucks. He loses big games and Notre Dame Quarterbacks are usually overated.
You can make all the excuses for him you like. I am not convinced he is a winner in the NFL. :err:


Boy, its too bad all of these NFL scouts, General Managers and people that rank the draft candidates don't have your insight and wisdom. If they did Quinn wouldn't be considered a top ten pick or even a first round prospect. Have you tried calling Mueller to give him your insight?

MastR_EvaluatoR
04-25-2007, 11:53 PM
When he's facing USC or Michigan, top-level cornerbacks can recover and top-level safeties can react and close on the ball, generating some turnovers. .

I did further research on Quinn.. And I found out he never had more interceptions than touchdown passes in big games.. That's pretty impressive.

EDIT - I just read this thread and see someone else mentioned this fact.. I read about it on sportsline last night.

MastR_EvaluatoR
04-25-2007, 11:57 PM
I also don't think he gets credit for the leadership shown in comebacks like the ones against Mich St. and UCLA. .

Yeah, alot of people say UCLA sucked.. But then again, UCLA did beat USC that season.. I am slowly jumping on the Quinn bandwagon by the way.

bakedmatt
04-26-2007, 12:01 AM
I like Dan's show. I listen to it often. That's how I know that he also said that David Carr was going to be a great QB in the NFL when he came into the league.

OneHondo
04-26-2007, 12:15 AM
I did further research on Quinn.. And I found out he never had more interceptions than touchdown passes in big games.. That's pretty impressive.

EDIT - I just read this thread and see someone else mentioned this fact.. I read about it on sportsline last night.



Thats interesting considering Russell had one game against Florida this past year with 3 Ints and 1 TD and one against Tenn with 3 TDs and 3 Ints, the Auburn game he didn't have any Ints or TDs.

cormega
04-26-2007, 04:39 AM
if we get him, i hope he is great, if not, then i dont really care. i just think its funny that all the good things about him get magnifyed, and the bad things get swept under the rug. and people get blasted when they point them out. if u saw him play against good teams u would see that he easily gets rattled. and he looks exactly like joey harrington. if the "experts" were wrong about joey, why is it inconcievable that they are wrong about brady? esp. when i read somewhere that only 30 something % of first round QB's pan out. We are always so eager to anoint these QB's as the second comming, then when it dont work we say we should have seen it all along. if we get quin and he dont work out there will be plenty of people pointing to all of the reasons that are now being swept under the rug.

DonShula84
04-26-2007, 05:18 AM
Quinn sucks. He loses big games and Notre Dame Quarterbacks are usually overated.
You can make all the excuses for him you like. I am not convinced he is a winner in the NFL. :err:


Quinn sucks. What an idiotic thing to say.

Alex44
04-26-2007, 06:06 AM
if we get him, i hope he is great, if not, then i dont really care. i just think its funny that all the good things about him get magnifyed, and the bad things get swept under the rug. and people get blasted when they point them out. if u saw him play against good teams u would see that he easily gets rattled. and he looks exactly like joey harrington. if the "experts" were wrong about joey, why is it inconcievable that they are wrong about brady? esp. when i read somewhere that only 30 something % of first round QB's pan out. We are always so eager to anoint these QB's as the second comming, then when it dont work we say we should have seen it all along. if we get quin and he dont work out there will be plenty of people pointing to all of the reasons that are now being swept under the rug.

If you watched the big games he played (especially USC this year) you would see that he actually didn't play poorly, but his offense was overmatched and his receivers dropped balls left and right.

By the way the Harrington comparison holds no water. Joey never had any seasons like Quinn did in his last two, and Joey struggled to complete 60% during any season at the college level. It's been said a lot of teams actually had Harrington graded as a round three type guy.

OneHondo
04-26-2007, 11:01 AM
if we get him, i hope he is great, if not, then i dont really care. i just think its funny that all the good things about him get magnifyed, and the bad things get swept under the rug. and people get blasted when they point them out. if u saw him play against good teams u would see that he easily gets rattled. and he looks exactly like joey harrington. if the "experts" were wrong about joey, why is it inconcievable that they are wrong about brady? esp. when i read somewhere that only 30 something % of first round QB's pan out. We are always so eager to anoint these QB's as the second comming, then when it dont work we say we should have seen it all along. if we get quin and he dont work out there will be plenty of people pointing to all of the reasons that are now being swept under the rug.

No, whats funny is that some people on this board feel that they know more about Brady Quinn than the experts do. Do you honestly think they haven't seen the same things we have and more. Do you think they are sweeping his faults under the rug to increase his draft potential?
Its pretty obvious that those scouts and draft experts feel that his assets outweigh his faults or he wouldn't be considered a 1st round talent, let alone a top 10 prospect. How is it inconceivable that the so called draft experts know more than we do considering they get paid for it and have access to a lot more information than we do about these prospects.
As far as the 30 something percent that you consider as opposed to the 70 percent that you would consider busts. What do you think the percentages might be for all of the other QBs taken in the other rounds? Look at all of the lower round QBs the Dolphins have selected over the years and all of them have been busts.
The Miami Dolphins have taken only three quarterbacks in the first round in their history and two of those were successes and are now in the NFL Hall of Fame. I think those are some pretty good percentages worth considering.
Sure there are always risks and a gamble that anyone we take is a success and not a failure. But just consider that Miami has had a lot more busts in the first round at other positions than they have had at QB.
Your right, Quinn could be a bust as could Russell, Stanton, Kolb or any other QB in the draft but he has to be a better prospect or he wouldn't even be considered a 1st round talent.

OneHondo
04-26-2007, 11:13 AM
Quinn sucks. He loses big games and Notre Dame Quarterbacks are usually overated.
You can make all the excuses for him you like. I am not convinced he is a winner in the NFL. :err:


Your right, Joe Montana and Joe Theisman were over rated and didn't deserve to be in the NFL.
I suppose you would rather we pick up another teams second stringer since we have had such outstanding success doing that.
No let me guess, you would rather us pick up someone in the second round or later because then we would only be throwing away a later round pick if they flop especially considering the great success the Dolphins have had in the past with lower round QBs.

IrishFinatic
04-26-2007, 11:19 AM
yes he never one a big game but he never had a good team. he made the team. the defense sucked and so did the offense. the next best player on the team was a walk-on jeff samarzja. and he is in MLB now. his runnigback is average but not great, and there whole D was horrible. they had to out score there opponents to win. it is amazing to see them have a winning record

Agree. The defense was terrible. However, the offense wasn't bad at all. All of their receivers and TE's were top teir prospects coming out of HS(including Samardzija). Brady Quinn's potential would never had been realized if Weis didn't come to town. He was really two years behind in terms of growth because of Ty Willingham. I believe Quinn has learning to do but has not nearly peaked. If we lget a chance to get him, we'd be foolish to pass him up.