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His'nBeatYour'n
04-27-2007, 04:25 AM
I was researching those so called "second tier QB's" that Miami will most likely end up with and I started thinking about the state of the NFL's starters.

Of the 29 teams who have a clear starter as of now (KC, MIA, OAK are too up in the air)
17 of those QB's were selected in the first round.
3 were drafted in round 2. Favre, Brees, Tarvaris Jackson
3 were drafted in round 3. Frye, Simms, Schaub
3 were drafted in round 6. Hasselbeck, Bulger, Brady
3 were undrafted. Romo, Kitna, Delhomme.

NYJ - 1st
BUF - 1st
CIN - 1st
BAL - 1st
PIT - 1st
JAX - 1st
IND - 1st
TEN - 1st
DEN - 1st
SD - 1st
NYG - 1st
WAS - 1st
PHI - 1st
CHI - 1st
ATL - 1st
SF - 1st
ARI - 1st

GB - 2nd/1st waiting in the wings
NO - 2nd
MIN - 2nd

HOU - 3rd
TB - 3rd
CLE - 3rd

SEA - 6th
NE - 6th
STL - 6th

CAR - Undrafted
DAL - Undrafted
DET - Undrafted (Selecting a 1st?)

OAK - ? (Selecting a 1st?)
KC - ? Green 8th/Croyle 3rd/Huard Undrafted
MIA - ? / Culpepper 1st

If you are a Dolphin fan looking for a QB in this draft, you may have to hope for Quinn based upon these statistics. I've been back and forth myself. He is the "sexy" pick we all hope falls to number 9. But I've been watching NFL network the last couple of days and the more I see of Quinn in interviews, the less impressed I am. And the more I see of his "highlights" the less difference I can see between him and those "second tier" QB's. I trust Cam and Randy to take "their guy" this Saturday.

Jaj
04-27-2007, 04:51 AM
What has he said that's less than impressed you? He seemed appreciative at Cam Cameron's tactics when it came to testing him for frigid Northeast weather.

PhinfanUK
04-27-2007, 05:55 AM
I have been thinking about this a lot lately as well, how many successful quarterbacks have been drafted in the second round?

Aside from Brees, Jackson hasn't really had a lot of success yet and the Jets have Kellen Clemens waiting to prove himself. From all accounts Brodie Croyle hasn't shown a lot for the Chiefs as of yet (although he hasn't had much of a chance).

There are some good prospects in round two and three, but I still think our best bet is trading up to get Quinn.

Jaz
04-27-2007, 06:44 AM
Nice research! time we invested in a big time QB dont u say

PublixSubsRule
04-27-2007, 07:20 AM
What has he said that's less than impressed you? He seemed appreciative at Cam Cameron's tactics when it came to testing him for frigid Northeast weather.

I agree all the interviews i have seen of him make me want him that much more. He has that IT Factor you look for in a QB. Also, he was the only player at the Draft (green room on Saturday) That was taking notes.

I would love to get him

PublixSubsRule
04-27-2007, 07:28 AM
However, I must commend you and say that is great research, I was going to do that, However Heres some more statistics:
Mode (Most Occuring)- 1st round
Mean (Average)- about round 2.5 (However the outliers of the undrafted free-agents pulled the average to the left so with out out liers it would be more like 1.7)
Median (the middle most number)- 1st round

I hope this makes sense to the vast majority of you guys, I tried my best to put it in layman's terms.

arsenal
04-27-2007, 07:45 AM
I have been thinking about this a lot lately as well, how many successful quarterbacks have been drafted in the second round?

Aside from Brees, Jackson hasn't really had a lot of success yet and the Jets have Kellen Clemens waiting to prove himself. From all accounts Brodie Croyle hasn't shown a lot for the Chiefs as of yet (although he hasn't had much of a chance).

There are some good prospects in round two and three, but I still think our best bet is trading up to get Quinn.

the problem is its wrong to generalize like that...

you cant say well there aren't many successful 2nd Round QBs in the league right now, because that has nothing to do with the QBs in this draft... its about the players themselves period, stereotyping a player because of what round hes drafted, or what college he comes from is foolish...

people said, "oh all Penn State running backs bust in the NFL", then Larry Johnson comes along...

tis not about what happened in the past, its only the individual players in this draft that matter... dont use the past to try to judge who these players will do, every player is different every year, they will make their own place regardless of past trends...

Alex44
04-27-2007, 08:00 AM
the problem is its wrong to generalize like that...

you cant say well there aren't many successful 2nd Round QBs in the league right now, because that has nothing to do with the QBs in this draft... its about the players themselves period, stereotyping a player because of what round hes drafted, or what college he comes from is foolish...

people said, "oh all Penn State running backs bust in the NFL", then Larry Johnson comes along...

tis not about what happened in the past, its only the individual players in this draft that matter... dont use the past to try to judge who these players will do, every player is different every year, they will make their own place regardless of past trends...

Or to say what you just said in a much shorter way.

Every draft is different, even if there were zero second round QB's successful up to this point wouldn't mean these guys can't be successful.

Oh and I agree with you more than 100%.....more like 900%

Oh and one great example is Colston. I bet if you looked it up there are very few if any great 7th round receivers in the NFL. However that doesn't mean there can't be, and there was one.

dolpns13
04-27-2007, 08:09 AM
I was researching those so called "second tier QB's" that Miami will most likely end up with and I started thinking about the state of the NFL's starters.

Of the 29 teams who have a clear starter as of now (KC, MIA, OAK are too up in the air)
17 of those QB's were selected in the first round.
3 were drafted in round 2. Favre, Brees, Tarvaris Jackson
3 were drafted in round 3. Frye, Simms, Schaub
3 were drafted in round 6. Hasselbeck, Bulger, Brady
3 were undrafted. Romo, Kitna, Delhomme.

NYJ - 1st
BUF - 1st
CIN - 1st
BAL - 1st
PIT - 1st
JAX - 1st
IND - 1st
TEN - 1st
DEN - 1st
SD - 1st
NYG - 1st
WAS - 1st
PHI - 1st
CHI - 1st
ATL - 1st
SF - 1st
ARI - 1st

GB - 2nd/1st waiting in the wings
NO - 2nd
MIN - 2nd

HOU - 3rd
TB - 3rd
CLE - 3rd

SEA - 6th
NE - 6th
STL - 6th

CAR - Undrafted
DAL - Undrafted
DET - Undrafted (Selecting a 1st?)

OAK - ? (Selecting a 1st?)
KC - ? Green 8th/Croyle 3rd/Huard Undrafted
MIA - ? / Culpepper 1st

If you are a Dolphin fan looking for a QB in this draft, you may have to hope for Quinn based upon these statistics. I've been back and forth myself. He is the "sexy" pick we all hope falls to number 9. But I've been watching NFL network the last couple of days and the more I see of Quinn in interviews, the less impressed I am. And the more I see of his "highlights" the less difference I can see between him and those "second tier" QB's. I trust Cam and Randy to take "their guy" this Saturday.

Really, my TV never leaves the NFL station. The more I see of his interviews, the more impressed I am. He shows intelligence, confidence, leadership, and knowledge in ALL of his interviews (He knows how to publicly speak and he sounds intelligent unlike 95% of the draftees interviewed - I also didnt know he was a double major in Business and Politics so you know he has good rationalization and decision making abilities) and those are characteristics that make a starting QB. His career stats of 95 TD and 37 INT with 11,500 passing yards averaging 24 TD's, 9 INTS and 2,850 yards per season isnt impressive to you?

DolfanCole
04-27-2007, 08:58 AM
Very good research. I think many people were thinking about it, but hadn't put the effort into actually doing the research. Kind of a side note too -- Brees was the first pick in the second round. So, while he was technically a 2nd round pick, he was as close to a 1st round pick as you can get.

I'm really torn on this issue. I've been back and forth -- get Quinn at all costs (hopefully he would fall and we wouldn't have to give up anything to get him) or wait until the second round and pick up one of the "second-tier" guys, whilst using the first to pick a stud lineman or WR.

Kinzua
04-27-2007, 09:49 AM
I think that any QB drafted in the 1st or 2nd round can make a "franchise" QB if he's smart enough and is willing to learn -- and here's the biggie -- gets good QB coaching. Too many of these kids, especially the ones with the big arms and tons of raw talent who are drafted at the top of the draft, are just allowed to get by on their raw talent like they did in college rather than being forced to learn good funadmentals, self discipline, and good decision-making. Good QB coaches make good QBs.

I think that the Fins have a good chance at getting a "franchise" QB in this year's draft, whether they take Quinn or one of the less polished QBs in the later rounds, because Cameron has developed two good ones: Brees and Rivers. I think it's less about where a QB is drafted than about how he's coached.

Ferretsquig
04-27-2007, 10:03 AM
Thats not a very good way to look at it. First round picks are more often the starters not only because of their performance but because of the money tied up in them. If a 6th round pick had the rookie season of Alex Smith or JP Losman he would of been cut. Give a guy 60 mil and there is an incentive to develop him. In fact there are more guys selected in the 6th round or lower that have had 3+ productive years in the league than first rounders. At least half of those first rounders won't be starting in a couple years.

finnnhero
04-27-2007, 11:09 AM
lets not give up a bunch of players to get one-im tired of trading up and landing up with less-example ricky williams trade and others the past few years that rob us of potntial young talent-just pick the best player available DO NOT MOVE UP!

Dan The Fin Fan
04-27-2007, 11:17 AM
Sorry but I think Cam waits till Sunday for are QB with so many good QB's in the draft someone will fall to the 4th round! Are GM has takeing QB's lower then most GM's if you look at his history, and did dam good to! Marc Balger in the 6th round in 2000, is one where he had the finel decisions. But two in the 6th round J.T.O'Sullivan from California-Davis is the other in 2002. So to me J.T. has not had the chance to prove himself, but Balger did and is good as they come at the QB position! You could say he is 50ty-50ty in the 6th round and alot of very good QB's this year, so one will drop to the 4th round.

FinfanInBuffalo
04-27-2007, 11:17 AM
In fact there are more guys selected in the 6th round or lower that have had 3+ productive years in the league than first rounders.

Care to back that up with some facts?

gunka
04-27-2007, 11:23 AM
What!?!?! I thought they were dropped off at their training camps by storks. :)

Nice research. I have faith in Cam and Randy, too. Well, it's really faith in Randy. I didn't have much faith in Saban (or is a deep personal bias distorting my memory), so I'm glad that Randy will not be outranked this year. Personally, I hope Quinn drops but I'd be ok with picking Stanton, Beck or Kolb in the 2nd round.

dolpns13
04-27-2007, 11:27 AM
Thats not a very good way to look at it. First round picks are more often the starters not only because of their performance but because of the money tied up in them. If a 6th round pick had the rookie season of Alex Smith or JP Losman he would of been cut. Give a guy 60 mil and there is an incentive to develop him. In fact there are more guys selected in the 6th round or lower that have had 3+ productive years in the league than first rounders. At least half of those first rounders won't be starting in a couple years.

Firstly, a rookie 6th round pick would not be a starting QB to begin with on any team. The ONLY reason Brady got his shot was because Bledsoe got injured.

Which 6th rounders or lower and 1st rounders are you comparing because the only starting QB's in the league right now who were 6th or lower are Delhomme, Kitna, and Brady and wouldnt you say that there are PLENTY more starting QB's who were 1st rounders right now than 6th or higher? Basic intelligence would.

unluckyluciano
04-27-2007, 11:36 AM
Really, my TV never leaves the NFL station. The more I see of his interviews, the more impressed I am. He shows intelligence, confidence, leadership, and knowledge in ALL of his interviews (He knows how to publicly speak and he sounds intelligent unlike 95% of the draftees interviewed - I also didnt know he was a double major in Business and Politics so you know he has good rationalization and decision making abilities) and those are characteristics that make a starting QB. His career stats of 95 TD and 37 INT with 11,500 passing yards averaging 24 TD's, 9 INTS and 2,850 yards per season isnt impressive to you?
Or it makes him one hell of a snake-oil salesman.

FinfanInBuffalo
04-27-2007, 11:37 AM
I think that any QB drafted in the 1st or 2nd round can make a "franchise" QB if he's smart enough and is willing to learn -- and here's the biggie -- gets good QB coaching. Too many of these kids, especially the ones with the big arms and tons of raw talent who are drafted at the top of the draft, are just allowed to get by on their raw talent like they did in college rather than being forced to learn good funadmentals, self discipline, and good decision-making. Good QB coaches make good QBs.

I think that the Fins have a good chance at getting a "franchise" QB in this year's draft, whether they take Quinn or one of the less polished QBs in the later rounds, because Cameron has developed two good ones: Brees and Rivers. I think it's less about where a QB is drafted than about how he's coached.

I also think there are 5 or 6 QBs that have potential. The challenge is figuring out which ones will pan out and being in a position to pick them. It is a difficult thing to determine how much coaching contributes to the success of a young QB. Clearly raw talent, coaching, and strength of the team surrounding the player all contribute.

dan the fin
04-27-2007, 11:41 AM
Or to say what you just said in a much shorter way.

Every draft is different, even if there were zero second round QB's successful up to this point wouldn't mean these guys can't be successful.

Oh and I agree with you more than 100%.....more like 900%

Oh and one great example is Colston. I bet if you looked it up there are very few if any great 7th round receivers in the NFL. However that doesn't mean there can't be, and there was one.

I think its more that NFL scouts are better then me you or the Media. What happens with most QB's that they might have a second round grade, teams think that he is good then they draft him in the first cause its a QB and teams take QB, higher and take chances on them. But then there are more first round QB bust then anyone else too. I think a lot of whether or not a QB becomes successful is the team that drafts him, do they have good coaching , does he fit the system and stuff like that. The QB's that will be great no madder what only come around once in a great while.

Dan The Fin Fan
04-27-2007, 11:42 AM
What!?!?! I thought they were dropped off at their training camps by storks. :)

Nice research. I have faith in Cam and Randy, too. Well, it's really faith in Randy. I didn't have much faith in Saban (or is a deep personal bias distorting my memory), so I'm glad that Randy will not be outranked this year. Personally, I hope Quinn drops but I'd be ok with picking Stanton, Beck or Kolb in the 2nd round.
Beck in the bottom of the 2nd, MAYBE! Kolb you have way to high here, I would not take him till the 3rd, MAYBE! This is how most people have it that I see Russell, Quinn in the 1st. Stanton in the 2nd. Beck or Edwards(neck@neck) in the 2nd or 3rd, Smith in the 3rd, and then Kolb who might drop out of the 3rd and down to the 4th! So if there are 3 of these QB's in the 3rd we wait till the 4th round!

dolpns13
04-27-2007, 11:44 AM
Or it makes him one hell of a snake-oil salesman.

just like our president

brparkway
04-27-2007, 12:13 PM
There has been some discussion recently, on ESPN especially, that a couple of the "second-tier" QB's (I've heard Beck & Edwards mentioned) could be taken late in the first round as their stock is rising rapidly. If so, it would seem to favor those starter stats.

Ferretsquig
04-27-2007, 12:31 PM
Care to back that up with some facts?

How many of those picks have 3+ years of quality play?

1st round:

Manning, Pennington, McNair, McNabb

6th round or lower:

Delhomme, Bulger, Brady, Hasselbeck

I would argue that in 3 years those 6th rounders will still be starting while half of those first rounders will be on the bench somewhere. While the failure rate may be higher with the late round picks they are low risk and take a similar time to develop as first rounders, without sacrificing team play. Unlike first rounders they aren't shoved into the starting lineup with outlandish expectations in their first couple years in the league.

So whats better? Taking a QB in the first round with a 30% success rate, one who invariably will be shoved into the starting rotation and underperform while developing, or taking a QB in a later round with a 10% success rate who spends a couple seasons behind a veteren QB learning how to play the game before being asked to start? Mabey if you removed the variable of salary the first round pick would be more appealing, but in the salary cap age first rounders, especially top 10 picks, can ruin a team if they don't pan out.

FinfanInBuffalo
04-27-2007, 01:23 PM
How many of those picks have 3+ years of quality play?

1st round:

Manning, Pennington, McNair, McNabb

6th round or lower:

Delhomme, Bulger, Brady, Hasselbeck

I would argue that in 3 years those 6th rounders will still be starting while half of those first rounders will be on the bench somewhere. While the failure rate may be higher with the late round picks they are low risk and take a similar time to develop as first rounders, without sacrificing team play. Unlike first rounders they aren't shoved into the starting lineup with outlandish expectations in their first couple years in the league.

So whats better? Taking a QB in the first round with a 30% success rate, one who invariably will be shoved into the starting rotation and underperform while developing, or taking a QB in a later round with a 10% success rate who spends a couple seasons behind a veteren QB learning how to play the game before being asked to start? Mabey if you removed the variable of salary the first round pick would be more appealing, but in the salary cap age first rounders, especially top 10 picks, can ruin a team if they don't pan out.

You claimed there are MORE 6th rounders with 3+ quality years. You left a few first round QBs off of the list?

Roethlisberger, Palmer, Culpepper, Vick. There are several others that show signs; E. Manning, Leinart, Young, Losman, Grossman, Smith.

Clearly taking a QB in the top 10 carries a bigger downside if they don't pan out. But, the same is true for any player drafted in the top 10. Will Houston be any less hurt financially if Mario Williams flops?

The fact is that a elite level QB helps a team's chances. A higher % of elite QBs are drafted in the first or second round.

His'nBeatYour'n
04-27-2007, 01:41 PM
Thats not a very good way to look at it. First round picks are more often the starters not only because of their performance but because of the money tied up in them. If a 6th round pick had the rookie season of Alex Smith or JP Losman he would of been cut. Give a guy 60 mil and there is an incentive to develop him. In fact there are more guys selected in the 6th round or lower that have had 3+ productive years in the league than first rounders. At least half of those first rounders won't be starting in a couple years.

It is not a perfect way to look at it, it is a statistical generalization to be sure.

If you look at those 6th rounders or lower, only 2 of them are with teams that originally selected/signed them Brady/Romo.

I disagree with you attributing the overwhelming statistical fact that 1st round picks are the most likely starters to money. It applies in certain cases, but it is not the number one factor. For every guy you could argue is only the starter because of money, I could find a 1st rounder who buckled under the pressure of being number 1 with number 1 money who could have succeeded with less pressure as a 3rd round pick.

Half of those 1sts won't be starting in a couple of years? Which half? That could be a fun wager. :wink:

His'nBeatYour'n
04-27-2007, 01:51 PM
[quote=Ferretsquig;1062015541but in the salary cap age first rounders, especially top 10 picks, can ruin a team if they don't pan out.[/quote]

I agree with this. How many teams have had success shortly after investing a top 10 pick on a QB bust?

FinfanInBuffalo
04-27-2007, 02:12 PM
I agree with this. How many teams have had success shortly after investing a top 10 pick on a QB bust?

How many teams have had success shortly after investing a top 10 pick on a bust at any position? Detroit has made a tradition of this. Which pick hurt them worse, Harrington or Charles Rogers? I suppose that since a team usually has more than one quality WR on the roster, a failed WR can be hidden. RB and LT might be nearly as bad as QB. The Raiders pick of Gallery a few years back hasn't helped them too much.

Shula Come Back!
04-27-2007, 05:57 PM
Bring on Brady Quinn then!

His'nBeatYour'n
04-27-2007, 11:11 PM
How many teams have had success shortly after investing a top 10 pick on a bust at any position? Detroit has made a tradition of this. Which pick hurt them worse, Harrington or Charles Rogers? I suppose that since a team usually has more than one quality WR on the roster, a failed WR can be hidden. RB and LT might be nearly as bad as QB. The Raiders pick of Gallery a few years back hasn't helped them too much.

Plenty of bad teams remain bad. However, since I can't think of any bad teams who selected a bad QB in the top 10 then got good, I'd have to agree that selecting a bust QB in the top 10 will doom a team to repeated failure. QB is the most important position.

Skeet84
04-27-2007, 11:15 PM
Very Nice research and thats very interesting to know. I am pretty sure we will take a QB in the second round so hopefully we can add one to that number in the future.

His'nBeatYour'n
04-27-2007, 11:29 PM
Very Nice research and thats very interesting to know. I am pretty sure we will take a QB in the second round so hopefully we can add one to that number in the future.

Thank you. I'd prefer not to waste picks moving up for Quinn, because I really don't think that there is too much to separate those "2nd tiers" from Quinn IMHO. What got me thinking was how likely is it that Colb/Stanton/Beck/Edwards become the next 2nd round star? Brees and Favre are the only two star #2's starting in the NFL and both were selected #33. I hope Cam and Randy know what direction to go in for a young QB. I hope they make the right choice. I'll support whatever happens tomorrow. I can't wait.