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View Full Version : Global cooling in the not too distant future?



finswin56
06-21-2007, 03:30 PM
A very long article that comes to this conclusion

Solar scientists predict that, by 2020, the sun will be starting into its weakest Schwabe solar cycle of the past two centuries, likely leading to unusually cool conditions on Earth. Beginning to plan for adaptation to such a cool period, one which may continue well beyond one 11-year cycle, as did the Little Ice Age, should be a priority for governments. It is global cooling, not warming, that is the major climate threat to the world, especially Canada. As a country at the northern limit to agriculture in the world, it would take very little cooling to destroy much of our food crops, while a warming would only require that we adopt farming techniques practiced to the south of us.

Meantime, we need to continue research into this, the most complex field of science ever tackled, and immediately halt wasted expenditures on the King Canute-like task of "stopping climate change."
http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/financialpost/comment/story.html?id=597d0677-2a05-47b4-b34f-b84068db11f4&p=4

ckb2001
06-21-2007, 03:59 PM
I don't remember which thread it was, but I went through an analysis of Veizer's papers - the same papers that article above rests many of its claims on. In general, the question has to do with how important galactic solar wind versus CO2 is in climate change.

Here's his 2003 paper:
http://www.gsajournals.org/archive/1052-5173/13/7/pdf/i1052-5173-13-7-4.pdf

The key distinction that isn't being made by many that quote this paper is that his correlations are derived from data over geologic time scales, up to 500 million years.

So, when he says this:

QUOTE:
"We find that at least 66% of the variance in the paleotemperature trend could be attributed to CRF variations likely due to solar system passages through the spiral arms of the galaxy."
--------------

he's talking about trends over hundreds of millions of years! (note the "passages through the spiral arms of the galaxy)..

You'll note that while he suggests "at least some" of the variability over smaller time scales may be due to celestial climate drivers, he doesn't actually provide a separate analysis quantifying how much. Thus, the key thing to note is this is a paper that concerns the effects of the galactic solar wind over geological time scales, not over time scales where relevant predictions by the IPCC are being made for global warming we have to confront today and in the immediate future.

And as I've shown before, a more recent discovery actually shows that the infuence of CO2 on the climate has been consistent the last 420 million years:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/upi/index.php?feed=Science&article=UPI-1-20070402-09245600-bc-us-carbondioxide.xml


And as far as comparison to the Little Ice Age is concerned, well every informed person on the Little Ice Age knows that period coincided with a period of almost no sunspots. No one understands how lack of sunspots could impact our climate (unsolved problem), and no one can predict when those same conditions (of nearly no sunspots) will again occur, so talking about preparing for a Little Ice Age is really something someone might say for a newspaper, but likely not in scientific journals.

There simply hasn't been any research paper actually refuting the conclusions of the IPCC report in recent years.

finswin56
06-21-2007, 05:15 PM
I was hoping you'd respond. I won't even admit to understanding half of what you wrote, but I found it interesting.