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NY8123
02-05-2008, 02:42 PM
Number 1 picks of the last 20 years
WTP = Worth the pick, NWTP = Not worth the pick or Neutral.

1988 Atlanta Aundray Bruce, LB 11 years no significant achievements NWTP.
1989 Dallas Troy Aikman, QB WTP, Hall of fame
1990 Indianapolis Jeff George, QB 15 years 27,602 yards, NWTP.
1991 Dallas Russell Maryland, DT 10 years NWTP
1992 Indianapolis Steve Emtman, DT Bust, NWTP
1993 New England Drew Bledsoe, QB WTP, Hall of fame probably not.
1994 Cincinnati Dan Wilkinson, DT NWTP
1995 Cincinnati Ki-Jana Carter, RB Ha! Lol do I even have to tell you, NWTP
1996 NY Jets Keyshawn Johnson, WR Neutral, argument can be made both ways.
1997 St. Louis Orlando Pace, OT Franchise tackle, WTP.
1998 Indianapolis Peyton Manning, QB Franchise QB, more than likely in the hall, WTP
1999 Cleveland Tim Couch, QB Huge bust NWTP
2000 Cleveland Courtney Brown, DE Bust, NWTP
2001 Atlanta Michael Vick, QB I will let you all debate this one but I say NWTP
2002 Houston David Carr, QB Too close to call, needs more time.
2003 Cincinnati Carson Palmer, QB Good QB, WTP
2004 San Diego Eli Manning, QB Good QB, WTP
2005 San Francisco Alex Smith, QB Needs time
2006 Houston Mario Williams, DE Needs time
2007 Oakland JaMarcus Russell, QB Needs time

Statistical break down,

I will exclude Alex Smith, Mario Williams and JaMarcus Russel due to lack of playing time, bad team etc… Note: I will say it looks like Smith may shape up to be a NWTP and Williams being a WTP. (Hind sight is 20/20 see Mike Vick, if you think he was worth the pick ask yourself if you would rather have Dew Brees leading the Phins or Vick regardless of jail time). That leaves this;

17 players of witch 9 are NWTP hands down, 1 or 2 neutrals (depending if you agree with my assessments) and 6 that are hands down worth the number one overall pick (valued at 3000 points). That equates to a 33.3% chance that Miami has a number 1 pick that is WTP or for all you pessimists out there a 66.6% failure chance to further set the dolphins back franchise wise.

This is why I say Parcells and Ireland have the right idea of trading the pick. Reduce the value and investment of the pick by spreading it over several picks and/or a proven player(s). Of course the two obvious trade down choices would be Dallas and New England but there are a couple scenarios that would have the Ravens, Bears and Cinci trading up also. With the huge amount of cash needed to lock up the number 1 overall pick there is almost no value in keeping the pick given the numbers. It makes better business sense to trade down and add numbers, increasing the chance to find another Zack Thomas or Jason Taylor in later rounds. Strength in numbers I say!

Crzynick25
02-05-2008, 03:04 PM
I agree completely with trading down, that factored with who is available in this draft, Dorsey great player but doesn't fit our 3-4 scheme, Chris Long who i really like but again not sure if he fits out scheme and do we really want to pay 20+ signing bonus for a 3-4 DE, Mcfadden great play but we have WAY too many other need to tie up that much money in a Running back. Matt Ryan i have not been impressed by him he seems to play bad in the big games. and Jake Long might be a reach at #1 overall. Best case scenario in my opinion is if we can some how drop to the 4-8 range plus pick up some more picks and draft Kenny Phillips who has moved up in the draft rankings (according to the below site) to 5th best player or Jake Long there if still available .


http://nfldraft.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=767131

The Aqua Crush
02-05-2008, 03:04 PM
Looks good. I think Williams was worth the pick ahead of vince and bush. Its finally coming to everyone's attention.

and peyton more than likely in the hall? I'm sure you can write one day HOF. Seems like a safte bet.

I agree the top pick is not always the best thing. And if the phins could trade down i would be extatic. The only problem is, is someone willing to give up enough value. We shall find that out in the comming months.

But nice break down. THanks

Mrhankey8170
02-05-2008, 05:36 PM
I agree with almost everything you said except I think that David Carr is in fact a bust, he is no longer a starter in the NFL.

Ga. FinFan
02-05-2008, 05:42 PM
I couldn't agree more and think that we must be willing to get less than 3000 points also.

Vintage
02-05-2008, 08:11 PM
FWIW, Stephen Jones (Jerry Jones' son....who is also handles player contracts and negotiations) came out today and said Barber is Dallas' future at RB. And that resigning him long term was the highest priority. And that they were going to work with Rosenhaus to get it done.

Pauly
02-05-2008, 09:37 PM
Steve Emtman was a complete beast before he blew out his knee. KiJana Carter's knee was wrecked before he even played a regular season down and he was one of the most highly regarded RBs ever coming out of college. By including these guys as busts is a bit like saying Bo Jackson was a bust because he only played for 4 seasons.

NY8123
02-05-2008, 10:23 PM
Steve Emtman was a complete beast before he blew out his knee. KiJana Carter's knee was wrecked before he even played a regular season down and he was one of the most highly regarded RBs ever coming out of college. By including these guys as busts is a bit like saying Bo Jackson was a bust because he only played for 4 seasons.


I love Bo Jackson, I think he might have been the best back the game produced better then my top two ever Walter Payton and Jim Brown but and the big but here is he wasn't. His hip blew out. Done. My point is mitigate the risk over several picks and players so your eggs are not in one basket. Manage around the Jackson, Carter and Emtman syndrome. Injury or not they were all busts for the amount of money tied up in each player.

Marino420TD
02-05-2008, 10:34 PM
The problem is that the percent chance of getting a good player drops as you get lower in the draft (even in the first round). You get more chances at getting a "hit", but the chances themselves more remote. You don't want to trade down and get 4 Matt Roth's, insteading of picking the next Reggie White.

Check out JJ's 1999 draft. He traded down a bunch and got zero.

Does it make sense to trade down sometimes and get more picks? Absolutely. If we don't like the players available at #1, then try to trade down. Don't trade down if you think we can get a stud at #1 just to get more picks.

RoninFin4
02-05-2008, 11:03 PM
I couldn't agree more and think that we must be willing to get less than 3000 points also.

Totally agree. I think that trade value chart is outdated, and with no homerun prospect in this year's class (of all the year's to have the #1 overall pick) I think we'll have to settle for a little less.

I think Atlanta, if they lose that coin-toss and move back to #4 or #5 could be our best bet, and there's still a chance at Chris or Jake Long there, as well as Gholston and Sedrick Ellis almost assuredly there. Also, I believe Atlanta has multiple picks in the 2nd round, which if I'm Parcells/Ireland, is pretty enticing if a trade can be worked out. We may not end up with both of them, but one more gives us 3 picks in round 2.

padre31
02-05-2008, 11:21 PM
I love Bo Jackson, I think he might have been the best back the game produced better then my top two ever Walter Payton and Jim Brown but and the big but here is he wasn't. His hip blew out. Done. My point is mitigate the risk over several picks and players so your eggs are not in one basket. Manage around the Jackson, Carter and Emtman syndrome. Injury or not they were all busts for the amount of money tied up in each player.

Exactly, "but" lies, darn lies, and statistics, for non QB or Rb picks, the record is murky and individualized.

Will Doresy be Wilkerson? Or Emtman?

Will Chris Long be C Brown?

Statistics do not measure those things.

Pauly
02-06-2008, 12:50 AM
I love Bo Jackson, I think he might have been the best back the game produced better then my top two ever Walter Payton and Jim Brown but and the big but here is he wasn't. His hip blew out. Done. My point is mitigate the risk over several picks and players so your eggs are not in one basket. Manage around the Jackson, Carter and Emtman syndrome. Injury or not they were all busts for the amount of money tied up in each player.

But by mitigating the risks you are also mitigating the chance of getting someone great. Many more top 5 overall go one to stellar careers that those picked 6-10 and after 10 overall it's basically a crap shoot.

Boston
02-06-2008, 12:54 AM
Didnt like how you said David Carr is kinda WTP. And Keyshawn is debatable??

I just don't agree with that, the rest is good. I Say Keep the pick and just go with the flow.

playeragent2612
02-06-2008, 01:12 AM
I see a trend in QB being WTP 6 to 4 NWTP, along with big OT. Also, not one DL/DT were WTP.

It makes me think twice on Long or Dorsey!

rking629
02-06-2008, 04:22 AM
had we not drafted ginn at 9 and traded down we coulda had an extra 1st or 2nd round pick in this years draft

Ozfin77
02-06-2008, 08:05 AM
Dont remind us!....lol

Firesole
02-06-2008, 08:42 AM
Mario Williams was completely worth the #1 pick.

NY8123
02-06-2008, 09:56 AM
But by mitigating the risks you are also mitigating the chance of getting someone great. Many more top 5 overall go one to stellar careers that those picked 6-10 and after 10 overall it's basically a crap shoot.


Isn't that how the Dolphins obtained there two best players of the last decade, Zach and Jay, 5th and 3rd respectivly? Look at this list, Marino late 1st, Clyaton 8th, Surtain 2nd, Maddison 2nd, Marion 7th, Mercury Morris 3rd, McDuffe late 1st (who I watched play the blue white game in Penn state his freshman year to make the team, all I can say is WOW!), Cox 5th, Duper 2nd, and on and on, the talent is there in the late rounds you need an eye to catch it. Hey BTW Curtis Martin was a 3rd round pick. 50/50 is what you can expect but the lower 50 is paid a lot less up front. And we need lots of help and money to get it.

emocomputerjock
02-06-2008, 09:58 AM
Isn't that how the Dolphins obtained there two best players of the last decade, Zach and Jay, 5th and 3rd respectivly? Look at this list, Marino late 1st, Clyaton 8th, Surtain 2nd, Maddison 2nd, Marion 7th, Mercury Morris 3rd, McDuffe late 1st (who I watched play the blue white game in Penn state his freshman year to make the team, all I can say is WOW!), Cox 5th, Duper 2nd, and on and on, the talent is there in the late rounds you need an eye to catch it. Hey BTW Curtis Martin was a 3rd round pick. 50/50 is what you can expect but the lower 50 is paid a lot less up front. And we need lots of help and money to get it.

Pauly did a nice writeup on this:

http://www.dolphinsnation.com/forums/showthread.php?t=208821

:up:

NY8123
02-06-2008, 10:35 AM
Pauly did a nice writeup on this:

http://www.dolphinsnation.com/forums/showthread.php?t=208821

:up:


That is a nice write up. That period is the 20 years prior to the one I picked and it was much better for producing longer lasting more productive number one picks. If you look the the overall number one pick for the period that Pauly broke down verse the one I did it is vastly different and I am not sure what changed but it did. To be honest I think the gap in the level of talent has closed. The difference between the number 1 RB in a draft isn’t that different from the 5th RB picked and so on. I bet that wasn’t the case in the period Pauly did, a lot of under privileged kids didn’t get to go to college plus there was segregation in larger schools. People had to work right out of high school back then, my father played semi pro ball for the Blue Jays, tore up his cuff and had to give up the dream because grandpa had no cash to fix it. Now he busts his *** daily running his business. I suspect that would have a lot to do with some of the gap also from the 60’s to 80’s.

baddraft07
02-06-2008, 10:51 AM
I couldn't agree more and think that we must be willing to get less than 3000 points also.


:clap:

Pauly
02-06-2008, 03:03 PM
That is a nice write up. That period is the 20 years prior to the one I picked and it was much better for producing longer lasting more productive number one picks. If you look the the overall number one pick for the period that Pauly broke down verse the one I did it is vastly different and I am not sure what changed but it did. To be honest I think the gap in the level of talent has closed. The difference between the number 1 RB in a draft isn’t that different from the 5th RB picked and so on. I bet that wasn’t the case in the period Pauly did, a lot of under privileged kids didn’t get to go to college plus there was segregation in larger schools. People had to work right out of high school back then, my father played semi pro ball for the Blue Jays, tore up his cuff and had to give up the dream because grandpa had no cash to fix it. Now he busts his *** daily running his business. I suspect that would have a lot to do with some of the gap also from the 60’s to 80’s.

Just remember that the 1st round is dominated by big name players from big name college, so the closing of the gap you talk about shouldn't affect the 1st round so much as the lower rounds.

As for the production of marquee players. From 88 to 97 you have 2 guys who are definite HOFers (Aikman and Pace) and there are 2 guys who I believe would have been HOF contenders but for injury. If you lookat the period 98 to 07 you have P Manning - a lock for the HOF and Palmer , E Manning and Williams who look as though they may have HOF type careers. I also didn't extend my study beyond 88 because of the incomplete careers issue.

But since we're talking small sample sizes you get statistical clumping so the data isn't reliable, which is why I preferred to look at picks in groups of 5. Yes drafting is a crapshoot and it's dangerous to make predictions about individual picks, but when you look at the 1st round as a whole far and away the best place to find a HOFer is in the top 5. If you took my analysis as gospel people would consider the 4th pick to be more valuable than the 2nd or 3rd pick - which we know isn't the case.

Dolfan_Noles
02-06-2008, 05:09 PM
Good job on compiling this info. A couple of things...

-I don't think that there is any way that David Carr was worth the pick for Houston. He might succeed in Carolina or elsewhere, but they had to cut Carr and sign another QB to a huge contract after using the first overall pick on him. There is no way that could ever be considered a win. If he is successful, it won't be for them.

-I absolutely believe that Keyshawn was worth the first pick as well. He was a pro bowler with a lot of longevity in the league.

After reading this, it's all taking me back to the Reggie Bush/Vince Young/Mario Williams talk. The Texans were categorically bashed for their selection of Williams. Right now that looks like the right pick. They still need an RB, but I think that Bush's success correlated more with bringing in Brees and Colston than anything else.

So, I'm sure that no matter which school of thought you're in, there are going to be tons of people disagreeing with you on here after the pick is made. We'll just have to wait and see.

NY8123
02-06-2008, 06:07 PM
Just remember that the 1st round is dominated by big name players from big name college, so the closing of the gap you talk about shouldn't affect the 1st round so much as the lower rounds.

As for the production of marquee players. From 88 to 97 you have 2 guys who are definite HOFers (Aikman and Pace) and there are 2 guys who I believe would have been HOF contenders but for injury. If you lookat the period 98 to 07 you have P Manning - a lock for the HOF and Palmer , E Manning and Williams who look as though they may have HOF type careers. I also didn't extend my study beyond 88 because of the incomplete careers issue.

But since we're talking small sample sizes you get statistical clumping so the data isn't reliable, which is why I preferred to look at picks in groups of 5. Yes drafting is a crapshoot and it's dangerous to make predictions about individual picks, but when you look at the 1st round as a whole far and away the best place to find a HOFer is in the top 5. If you took my analysis as gospel people would consider the 4th pick to be more valuable than the 2nd or 3rd pick - which we know isn't the case.


Ha statistics in general is a craps shoot like the draft, I have a good friend at work with a Masters in Stats and we laugh about his ability to make data say anything he wants it to. My point was not to write any gospel or take yours as such merely too say spead the picks out to increase the shot at finding at least one solid player to build with. I do find the 4th pick data to be intriguing but any data set has fliers and has to be normalized. All in all the biggest thing I find curious when looking at the past is still the fact that many more HOFers were produced in the first 21 years of the "current" NFL than in the last 20. I tired to find data on college enrollment versus population growth to see if indeed more kids had a shot meaning a diluted talent pool so to speak. But I could not find that graph. Interesting trends to say the least and good data.

lbmclean_sj
02-06-2008, 06:13 PM
I didn't realize that we had needed to justify trading down

its like trying to prove that 2 + 2 = 4

is there a Dolphin fan living in a cave who thinks we should stay @ #1?

NY8123
02-06-2008, 06:24 PM
I didn't realize that we had needed to justify trading down

its like trying to prove that 2 + 2 = 4

is there a Dolphin fan living in a cave who thinks we should stay @ #1?

Apparently so since many posts think Dorsey is the answer on defense or Ryann at QB.

lbmclean_sj
02-06-2008, 06:58 PM
Apparently so since many posts think Dorsey is the answer on defense or Ryann at QB.

that is not saying we should stay @ #1 that is saying who should we pick since we are stuck @ #1

I bet those same people think that the player taken 5th or 6th is just as good as Dorsey or Ryan

its another crappy draft at the top, no great LT, no great DE, no great QB

Pauly
02-06-2008, 11:36 PM
Ha statistics in general is a craps shoot like the draft, I have a good friend at work with a Masters in Stats and we laugh about his ability to make data say anything he wants it to. My point was not to write any gospel or take yours as such merely too say spead the picks out to increase the shot at finding at least one solid player to build with. I do find the 4th pick data to be intriguing but any data set has fliers and has to be normalized. All in all the biggest thing I find curious when looking at the past is still the fact that many more HOFers were produced in the first 21 years of the "current" NFL than in the last 20. I tired to find data on college enrollment versus population growth to see if indeed more kids had a shot meaning a diluted talent pool so to speak. But I could not find that graph. Interesting trends to say the least and good data.

I've updated my thread to include an extra 9 years up to 1996. In doing so I assumed that anybody who made it to 5+ probowls would eventually become a HOFer, not an exact science but it lets us compare guys drafed in the '90s with guys drafted in the '60s.

By extending the range and deeming 5+ probowls = HOF the #4 pick overall is easily the best pick to find a quality player, better than even the #1 overall. When you're talking about a sample size of 30 that's pretty close to being statistically valid. [insert scratching head gremlin here]

NY8123
02-08-2008, 02:42 PM
I've updated my thread to include an extra 9 years up to 1996. In doing so I assumed that anybody who made it to 5+ probowls would eventually become a HOFer, not an exact science but it lets us compare guys drafed in the '90s with guys drafted in the '60s.

By extending the range and deeming 5+ probowls = HOF the #4 pick overall is easily the best pick to find a quality player, better than even the #1 overall. When you're talking about a sample size of 30 that's pretty close to being statistically valid. [insert scratching head gremlin here]


Your definition of a bust needs to be re-defined if Carter wasn't a bust I am not sure who is. Contract signed:$19.2 million, seven-year deal that included a $7.125 million signing bonus. Games played 8 years 59 games out of 128 (46%), total career rushing yards 1,140. 19 yards a game. BUST!
Darick Holmes last back taken the year Carter was drafted, Contract last known 700,000 1 year. Games played 5 years 60 games out of 80 (75%) total career rushing yards 1,769. 29.5 yards a game. Better than the number 1 pick in the draft and this was pick 244 and a lot cheaper.

I was weighing performance versue cash on my not worth the pick assements.

Roman529
02-08-2008, 03:25 PM
The problem is the #1 overall pick is receiving more and more money every year as a percentage of the team's overall cap. It just doesn't make sense giving that much money to ONE guy unless he is clearly the most dominate player in college and a guy, who will have a hall of fame career. I don't think there is any one player who is dominant in this year's draft.

Pauly
02-08-2008, 05:21 PM
Your definition of a bust needs to be re-defined if Carter wasn't a bust I am not sure who is. Contract signed:$19.2 million, seven-year deal that included a $7.125 million signing bonus. Games played 8 years 59 games out of 128 (46%), total career rushing yards 1,140. 19 yards a game. BUST!


I was weighing performance versue cash on my not worth the pick assements.



I agree that my definition of bust is inadequate as guys who end up with long careers as backups are definitely busts if selected in the 1st round. A better definition would be one that looked at games started as the criteria. The problem is that I simply didn't have a source where I could get that data easily, and I wanted a definition that didn't rely on subjective judgement.

The issue about the monetary value is entirely different from what I was looking at. There are excellent reasons as to why the top 5 picks have the trade value they do, simply put it's the best place to draft a HOFer. The problem is that the salary cap system means that the draftees in the top 5/1st round end up being paid as if they are HOFers/probowlers from day 1.