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UT-Phinz
08-22-2003, 05:09 PM
Alright, I decided it's time for a new thread and to start up some of my Fantasy Football commentary. The current subject is undervalued players, i.e. sleepers who I anticipate will outperform their perceived value and also overvalued players who will underperform their perceived value.

First off, you have to understand that a sleeper is only a sleeper if you don't reach for him in your draft. For example, I think Donte Stallworth is going to have a breakout year and could post numbers this year that may even surpass Joe Horn's although that may be a bit generous. That doesn't mean that you should draft him in round 3 though, which is the average round that Joe Horn is going in. It would be a better idea to grab someone like Eric Moulds or Amani Toomer in round 3 and pick up Stallworth in round 6 where you spend a much less valuable pick on someone who you anticipate will perform like a top 10 receiver. If you take a sleeper too early and he doesn't pan out, you really wasted a pick. That is why they are called sleepers. Get the guys you know will perform early, and spend the later picks on guys who you anticipate will outperform the pick you spent on them.

I'm not gonna give 'em all to you at once, or this post would be about 10 miles long...

Alright, first up is my Super Sleeper... Marc Boerigter who is the #3 WR for the Kansas City Chiefs

Marc Boerigter is flying really low on the radar on alot of people's drafts, but I think this guy is gonna have a breakout year. He has size, speed, and incredible talent and as the #3 WR on the team he should see plenty of favorable matchups where he's being covered by a linebacker that he can easily burn to make the catch through a hole in coverage. It will really help that defenses will be focused on Priest Holmes and Tony Gonzales as well as Kansas City's #1 and #2 WRs who have left alot to be desired. Last year this guy had a 21 yard per catch average and scored 8 TDs in only 20 balls. One of the reasons he only had 20 balls thrown his way is because he missed almost all of Training Camp and the entire preseason due to an emergency appendectomy. It takes a bit to recover from that, but this kid was a complete stud when he finally started getting in the game. If you saw the highlights from Kansas City's recent preseason game, you saw him snag one in a hole and completely juke a DB out of his drawers and fly by him like he wasn't there taking it 59 yards for the score. This guy is a serious downfield threat every time he touches the ball.

Boerigter, when he is being drafted, tends to go somewhere around the end of the 12th round although I've seen him go as early as the 7th and as late as the 15th. The key is to grab him when picking him up is not wasting your pick. I tend to try to jump on him around the 10th to 11th round depending upon how many other receivers have already been taken during the earlier draft rounds.


Alright, my first overvalued 'bust' player is David Boston, who will be filling the #1 WR spot for the San Diego Chargers.

David Boston had a massive breakout season for the Cardinals two years ago, only to turn around last year and be a complete bust for anyone who wasted a draft pick on him. He ended up having season ending surgery in about week 10 because his ankle was giving him serious problems all year long. This year, San Diego picked him up as their new #1 receiver to replace the departed Curtis Conway.

So far in training camp, Boston has been battling with nagging injuries all month long. He can't seem to stay healthy no matter what he does. First it's his ankle again and he sits out for 3 days, and then after 2 days of practice it's an oblique muscle, and he sits out for 4 days and a preseason game, and then it's another injury and he's missing more time. This is not a good sign at all for Boston, who is clearly showing that he is not healthy and cannot play through injuries like some of the other athletes in the league.

Adding to this situation, San Diego does not have a legitimate threat at the #2 WR position with Reche Caldwell. Caldwell is decent, but he is no Peerless Price and defenses will be able to double cover Boston all season long. This is probably good news for owners who chose to draft LaDainian Tomlinson in the first round, because it means Brees will be dumping the ball off in the backfield to LT more often than trying to force it in double coverage to Boston. Boston has clearly not performed to the same level of play as he displayed 2 years ago, and I honestly think it will be another disappointing year for David Boston owners.

David Boston tends to be drafted somewhere in the 3rd round, although I've seen him slip towards the beginning of the fourth. I just really think that a WR pick here is better spent on Koren Robinson, Joe Horn (although I'd rather wait and get Stallworth), Amani Toomer, Eric Moulds, Peerless Price, Derrick Mason, or Plaxico Burress. I predict that all of these WRs including many others that I didn't specifically list will outscore Boston in the year to come.

More to come a little later on. It's time for a nap. Feel free to chime in with your thoughts on who you feel may be under or overvalued, or to argue my position. All views are welcome.

Emskirch
08-22-2003, 05:40 PM
UT, lol, as I saw the title, those exact two players came to mind. Boerigter is a stud, give him the ball more and he will prove it.

Boston can't stay Healthy, couldn't in AZ and can't now in SD. Not only that, SD is a running team.

Although I am not sold on Price, the other 6 recievers are the bomb, I think Robinson will have a breakout year this year.

Here are my overvalued/under valued this year.

QB Under valued: Kurt Warner - Most folks forgot two years ago. And he is slipping.

QB Over valued: Michael Vick - I have seen him go in the first round, as early as the second pick.

RB Under valued - William Green - Going as a 4th tier RB, I think he will have a very good year.

RB Under Valued - This is split between Faulk or Holmes. Both because of injuries last year. Both could be #1 picks if they weren't hurt. I have seen Faulk go 8th overall, and Holmes 9th. That is nuts, especially when backs like E James is going before them.

RB Overvalued - E. James. I don't get why he is going so high.

WR Over valued - That would be I. Bruce - Although not a top tier WR, he has gone higher in every draft that I have been in, then I think he should, he has gone 5th round on average. :shudder:

WR Under Valued - Todd Pinkston. Not a stud, and in most leagues not drafted. He will put up decent numbers this year.

TE Over Valued - Randy McMichael - For some reason everyone wants him to join the big three, I don't think so yet.

TE Under Valued - Alge Crumper, Atl, I think he suprises this year.

Kickers and Defenses are worthless, lol

SuperMarksBros.
08-23-2003, 11:02 PM
QB Under valued: Kurt Warner - Most folks forgot two years ago. And he is slipping.

ok, but you have to worry about a short leash with martz, especially with their qb of the future waiting. i think he could have a great year, but martz is a knucklehead and could pull him over a below average perfomance


QB Over valued: Michael Vick - I have seen him go in the first round, as early as the second pick.

i dont understand this pick either. i have only one thing to say regarding vick...dont believe the hype


RB Under valued - William Green - Going as a 4th tier RB, I think he will have a very good year.

actually, he's been a late 1st round to mid 2nd in many a draft...no longer a sleeper( i drafted him a year too early last year, along with daniel graham)


RB Under Valued - This is split between Faulk or Holmes. Both because of injuries last year. Both could be #1 picks if they weren't hurt. I have seen Faulk go 8th overall, and Holmes 9th. That is nuts, especially when backs like E James is going before them.

anyone who selects james over faulk has no business playing FF

Emskirch
08-24-2003, 10:46 AM
ok, but you have to worry about a short leash with martz, especially with their qb of the future waiting. i think he could have a great year, but martz is a knucklehead and could pull him over a below average perfomance

No need to worry, if its a problem just draft B man in the later rounds...


dont understand this pick either. i have only one thing to say regarding vick...dont believe the hype

I totally agree, I would rather have Pepper or McNabb, but in the 3rd or 4th round.

actually, he's been a late 1st round to mid 2nd in many a draft...no longer a sleeper( i drafted him a year too early last year, along with daniel graham)

No, didn't say a sleeper, but in the drafts I have been in, he has not gone in the first round. Kind of high for him, he usually goes late to mid 3rd round, which is why I said he is undervalued.[/i]



anyone who selects james over faulk has no business playing FF

Well, hrmmm, lol, I agree, but have seen it numerous times, mind you, this was before the first preseason game, and alot of questions surrounded both Priest or Faulk. But alot of folks forget who dominated fantasy football two years ago. Faulk, if heathly is still that man.

Run RICKY Run
08-24-2003, 05:07 PM
sleepers that will make some noise this year.....................

WR-Josh Reed....buffalo......the #2 in Buffalo is a nice place to be
WR-D'wayne Bates....Minn............see above;)
WR-Reggie Wayne...Indy.....maybe this year he gets his


QB-Kelly Holcomb...............he makes the Brownies go...period
QB-Tommy Maddux-Pitt.............ward and plax......nuff said
RB-THESE ARE NOT TRUE SLEEPERS.........but could really bust out

William Green-CLEVELAND
Ont Smith-Minn..................you never know
Kevan Barlow.....S.F. if it aint this year it may be never

any of these guys are good LATE round pics....................only Green should go semi-early