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View Full Version : My First Mock (Three Rounds) NT With First Pick? v1.0



finomenal
03-14-2009, 05:02 PM
DISCLAIMER: I'm not a draftnik. I'm not a huge fan of college football either, so I don't know most of these prospects too well. My predictions below are based on my research; what I've heard and/or read from respected people in the know, including the "Big O", Orlando Alzugaray (a Miami area talk show radio host), footballsfuture.com, nfldraftcountdown.com, ckparrothead and Boomer of Finheaven fame (of course), and a variety of other media sources.

After taking all that information and trying to pair it with the Dolphins' needs, here's what I came up with:

Round 1
#30 (From Tennessee) Ron Brace, NT, Boston College 6'3, 324

Round 2
#44 (From Washington) Michael Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech, 6'7", 266 or (best OLB available)
#56 Jarius Byrd, CB, Oregon, 5'10", 207

Round 3
#87 Ramses Barden, WR, Cal Poly, 6'6", 229

Reasoning behind mock picks:
#30 Ron Brace

This gives us the young NT we need to spell Jason Ferguson and take over and be the anchor after he retires. Yes, I know we need a #1 WR and CB, but good nose tackles are hard to find and rare, so just like a QB, if you find one that you like and you don't already have one, you take him. Without a good to elite NT, the rest of the 3-4 defense crumbles. We need to look no further than the 2008 regular season game vs. the Ravens. As soon as Ferguson got an injured oblique, the Ravens took full advantage and ran the ball right up the middle, torching the defense for 122 yards rushing. Willis McGahee ran for 105 yards @ 5.5 yards per carry, and Le'Ron McClain ran mostly in short yardage situations for the other 17 yards.

#25 in this mock was traded to the Tennessee Titans who need a WR badly and select Hakeem Nicks. According to the NFL draft value chart http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft06/news/story?id=2410670, the #25 overall pick is worth 720 points, and the #30 overall pick is worth 620 points; therefore, the cost to the Titans for trading up 5 spots in the first round would be about a 3rd rounder, which is 124 points. The more draft picks, the better. We would have the leverage in this deal because we could stay @ 25 and take Brace. The #25 overall pick could be a hot commodity considering teams like the Titans and Giants need a #1 WR. We might even be able to get an additional late round pick (5th round or lower) because the Titans, who were one game away from the AFC Championship game, are already a very good team. A WR could certainly help put them over the hump. The Giants are also a potential trade partner, as they too need a WR in the worst way.

Additionally, look at the 10 teams who pick after #25:

Baltimore Ravens
Indianapolis Colts
Philadelphia Eagles
New York Giants
Tennessee Titans
Arizona Cardinals
Pittsburgh Steelers
Detroit Lions
New England Patriots
St. Louis Rams

These 10 teams all either have a franchise NT already, or run a 4-3 and wouldn't be looking for a NT anyway. I thought this would be interesting to highlight since Ron Brace is looked at as a NT prospect. That being said, it's possible the Dolphins could trade down even further to acquire more picks. Of course, you don't want to trade down too far because you never know who might trade up, but it's something to keep in mind.

#44 Michael Johnson

Just looking at his dimensions alone (6'7", 266) are enough to make you salivate. Our pass rush was pathetic last year, and it's imperative that we inject pass rush into the D. Joey Porter as the only legit pass rushing threat won't cut it. We don't know what Cameron Wake is yet. We can't bank on him. Best case scenario is Wake and Johnson both turn out to be beasts. That's a very good problem in the 3-4, as you need a good stable of linebackers. Because of the importance of another pass rushing OLB in the 3-4, I could see this spot being an exception when it comes to trading up to select the guy they want. Michael Johnson brings a lot of bulk, speed, quickness, the ability to force fumbles and defend passes with his large frame.

#56 Jarius Byrd

Of course, there are other corners I would rather have in this draft, but IMHO, the front 7 must be rectified before we can move on to CB, and Byrd seems to fit the bill. I like what I read about his athleticism, footwork, and awareness.

#87 Ramses Barden

It's no secret that the Trifecta loves the towering wide receivers, and Ramses is every bit of that. From what I read and hear, it sounds like he'll need some development. He looks like an intriguing prospect in this round.

Thoughts?

#1dolphinsfan
03-14-2009, 05:11 PM
I think we can get Brace in the 2nd round so i think we will go WR first round probably Hakeem Nicks

3rdandinches
03-14-2009, 05:26 PM
Just because we need a NT down the road doesn't mean you over-draft a kid to fill that need. That's the quickest way to becoming average besides trading all your picks away.

It's not like we need one for this year or we'll suck, so we do have the ability to grab one that also equals great value where their selected.

finomenal
03-14-2009, 05:27 PM
I'd like to have Hakeem Nicks too, but my concern is that if we wait until #44, he could already be gone. There are more teams running the 3-4 next year, and Brace is regarded as the #2 nose tackle prospect behind Raji, who will be taken in the top 10. I wouldn't be shocked if I saw a team trade up to get Brace.

finomenal
03-14-2009, 05:33 PM
Just because we need a NT down the road doesn't mean you over-draft a kid to fill that need. That's the quickest way to becoming average besides trading all your picks away.

It's not like we need one for this year or we'll suck, so we do have the ability to grab one that also equals great value where their selected.

Actually, we do need a NT this year. Besides Ferguson, we don't have another viable option to spell him. Paul Soliai could provide something, but I haven't been too impressed with him. The draft isn't only about who can contribute right now, it's about building a team for now and the future, regardless of what round they're selected.

A 3-4 NT is so crucial that we can't afford to gamble of Ferguson being healthy the entire season at his advanced age.

playmaker1
03-14-2009, 05:35 PM
It is hard to do Mocks with trades. But I love the fact you actually know and understand the point system in draft trades. Too many people on here just make up trades in their head that would never happen. Props.

That being said, I agree with everyone. Brace could be taken at the end of the 2nd. taking him in the first, even trading down, would be a waste of a pick. I like the Byrd pick, I think he would be a very solid pick and help our secondary. I am still not sure about Johnson, he is a freak as far as size and numbers though.

I am not for taking a WR in the first two rounds.

FinaticalOne
03-14-2009, 07:14 PM
I'd like to have Hakeem Nicks too, but my concern is that if we wait until #44, he could already be gone.

That's true, but you still don't want to reach for Brace when there is better talent on the board. NT isn't the only position we need to improve, so passing up a more talented player at another position of need for Brace would not be a wise move.


There are more teams running the 3-4 next year, and Brace is regarded as the #2 nose tackle prospect behind Raji, who will be taken in the top 10. I wouldn't be shocked if I saw a team trade up to get Brace.

I think Ireland and Parcells are fine with Ferguson and Soliai at NT where they don't have to worry about drafting a NT in the first round.

There are other positions where we are much more thin at. LB is arguably are thinnest position, we have are starters (Porter, Ayodele, Crowder, and Roth), but after them we have Reggie Torbor, Charlie Anderson, William Kershaw, Erik Walden and newcomers George Tearrius and Cameron Wake. Excluding the newcomers there is no depth behind our starters. Walden and Kershaw were brought in primarily for special teams purposes, so we brought Tearrius and Wake in to help solidify that position. There will be injuries so we have to make this position stronger.

WR is thin too. There are no standout players yet, I'm not knocking Ginn because I believe he needs a strong arm QB (like Henne) to elevate his game to another level. We don't have a big, strong, physical WR. Will Camarillo come back to full strength when the season start? That's another thing we have to keep an eye on. So that leaves Bess, Wiford, London, and Lowber. None of these guys are what we call a physical WR (Wilford was supposed to be but we all know how that worked out). We need a WR who can make that tough catch, last season we threw jump balls in the endzone to Ginn and Bess during crucial times in football games, neither chance was converted.

finomenal
03-15-2009, 04:32 PM
It is hard to do Mocks with trades. But I love the fact you actually know and understand the point system in draft trades. Too many people on here just make up trades in their head that would never happen. Props.

That being said, I agree with everyone. Brace could be taken at the end of the 2nd. taking him in the first, even trading down, would be a waste of a pick. I like the Byrd pick, I think he would be a very solid pick and help our secondary. I am still not sure about Johnson, he is a freak as far as size and numbers though.

I am not for taking a WR in the first two rounds.
Thanks for the props. I'm with you on picking a WR in the first two rounds. Hakeem Nicks is VERY tempting, but we need more "meat & potatoes" before we draft the "sexy pick". And I hope Brace is available in the second round. If he's around with the second 2nd round pick it would be a steal.

jim1
03-15-2009, 04:43 PM
I'd like to have Hakeem Nicks too, but my concern is that if we wait until #44, he could already be gone. There are more teams running the 3-4 next year, and Brace is regarded as the #2 nose tackle prospect behind Raji, who will be taken in the top 10. I wouldn't be shocked if I saw a team trade up to get Brace.

They'll take Nicks at #25 or they won't take him at all. Sean Smith sounds interesting, but I don't have an educated opinion on him. Bottom line- Nicks, and Harvin to give them something to truly think about if available.

Everyone keeps dumping on Solia, but I see him as a player on the rise. The true, crying need is a #1 WR. OT was avoided in FA last year when the roster almost empty with Toledo, et al being unceremoniously dumped. WR has been avoided this year in FA as well- all signs point to Nicks. I'm still looking forward to seeing Todd Lowber play in camp.

skipp2myloo13
03-15-2009, 04:44 PM
Brace is overrated for the second. he would be a terrible first round pick. MJohonson is a terrible pick as well, he is Gholsotn but with absolutley 0 college production. If he is so good, why has he NEVER show it at GT. We pick at 25, idk why u think its 30

finomenal
03-15-2009, 05:06 PM
Brace is overrated for the second. he would be a terrible first round pick. MJohonson is a terrible pick as well, he is Gholsotn but with absolutley 0 college production. If he is so good, why has he NEVER show it at GT. We pick at 25, idk why u think its 30
I guess you would know better than me. I don't watch college football much. Who would you rather have though? Oh, and the #30 overall pick was a hypothetical trade down with the Titans since they need a WR, which would net us an extra 3rd rounder according to the NFL Draft Value Chart.

skipp2myloo13
03-15-2009, 05:55 PM
I guess you would know better than me. I don't watch college football much. Who would you rather have though? Oh, and the #30 overall pick was a hypothetical trade down with the Titans since they need a WR, which would net us an extra 3rd rounder according to the NFL Draft Value Chart.

ok cool, i didnt see the trade sry about that. that is a good idea, but trades are hard to call, for anyone.
I would rather get a CB with the first-Butler or Smith (i dont think he can play CB, but if the brass does)
second is a whoever falls thing-Guys like Sintim, Ayers, Barwin (prolly wont fall) Britt all our solid pick IMO
the second b-could be a guard depth, a NT, really no recievers here, mocho harris as a nickle. really BPA for the most part

ADavieDolphin
03-15-2009, 06:05 PM
i like the trade back, but i dont like selecting brace first.. is djmoore/butler/hbey/clay/mau/lau?/percy available? cuz brace isn't crazy impressive, but he is a monster, and i think Sparano will make him angry enough to take on 2-3 guys

PHINANALYST
03-24-2009, 02:20 PM
more than anything the FO wants a playmaker to pressure the QB .... whether that be from a DE or OLB - doesn't matter at this point ... but would assume the preference is OLB.

given that: You can easily reverse the order of 25 & 44

25 - [OLB] Barwin (i really like), Stintim, English, Brown

44 - [CB] Butler (i really like), Smith

56 - [DE] Johnson, Ayers

87 - [C] Wood

WR in RD 4 .... then another CB and T/G

zach8111
03-24-2009, 02:40 PM
nope, not a fan of it, Brace probably will be there in the 2nd or get close enough to trade up only losing a later round guy if we really want him.

but i hate the 2nd rounder... Michael Johnson.... He isnt very good. He wasnt even productive in college what makes you think he will be in NFL... He is a combine player where prodays and combines will improve there stock too much... just like vernon gholston.. how did he do last season... he is a freak but all potential... and you dont win with potential

eric1317
03-24-2009, 02:45 PM
I love the trade idea and could see something like this happening on draft day. I also like your reasoning on taking a corner later. I think brace and Byrd can be had later in the draft. I really don't like johnson but he would be a good value where you had him. I also beleive that the OL could be a target in the 1st two rounds now that Satele is gone.

fishypete
03-24-2009, 02:50 PM
Be careful of H. Nicks...First he pulls up at the combine with a hammy and then this;


Hicks stock will fall...The fact that North Carolina WR Hakeem Nicks showed up to the North Carolina Pro Day at 226 pounds, (14 pounds heavier than he weighed in at the NFL Combine) is very disturbing, especially since he's a 210 pound receiver, and not a 300 pound lineman, with the capability of extreme weight fluctuation. In my opinion, Nicks stock will fall between now and the draft, because NFL teams will compare him to Saints WR Robert Meachum, a major disappointment for the Saints. Meachum gained 17 pounds after the Saints made him their first round pick in the 2007 draft. -Al Fronczak

Nappy Roots
03-24-2009, 03:04 PM
Brace is overrated for the second. he would be a terrible first round pick. MJohonson is a terrible pick as well, he is Gholsotn but with absolutley 0 college production. If he is so good, why has he NEVER show it at GT. We pick at 25, idk why u think its 30


i agree, brace is overrated, hes a 3rd rounder to me...

but i disagree, how could you possibily say Michael Johnson has NEVER shown he was good at GT? hes dominated at times where hes shown he should be a top 10 pick, other times hes disappeared, but to say he has never shown the talent is completely false.

ArmyFin7
03-24-2009, 03:11 PM
I for one don't like it...just for the fact that I don;t see Brace as a NT. I think he befefited from being next to Raji for 3 yrs. I don't know exactly what it is about him but I dont like him at NT. I would rather take my chances with a 3rd or 4th round guy. I like the NT from Hampton...at least he has played the position.

ArmyFin7
03-24-2009, 03:13 PM
I love the trade idea and could see something like this happening on draft day. I also like your reasoning on taking a corner later. I think brace and Byrd can be had later in the draft. I really don't like johnson but he would be a good value where you had him. I also beleive that the OL could be a target in the 1st two rounds now that Satele is gone.

If Satele was that good they wouldn't have traded him after signing Grove for so much money. No way does Sateles trade affect the first 3 rounds of our draft or the deal wouldn't have been made.

gregorygrant83
03-24-2009, 03:55 PM
I think the only 2 solid NT prospect in this draft are Raji and Brace. Raji will be long gone and Brace a 2nd or 3rd round pick. The team might want fill the gaps at NT this year and wait til he 2010 draft where it looks like there will be 5 or 6 legit 3-4 NT prospects available. There will also be at least 4 big recievers in the 2010 draft. So if we had to go with a veteran like Harrison or Holt for one year and then draft a big reciever next year things could still workout for us.

eric1317
03-24-2009, 06:10 PM
If Satele was that good they wouldn't have traded him after signing Grove for so much money. No way does Sateles trade affect the first 3 rounds of our draft or the deal wouldn't have been made.[/quote]

We have an ex-offensive line coach as a head coach. Our depth along the o-line is thin and we have no backup really pushing our starters for playing time. Satele wasn't great but he had starting experience, is young and would at least compete with Groves. I really believe we will take the best player available with our 1st 3 picks reguardless of our needs.

HybridPHIN 23
03-24-2009, 07:57 PM
nice work, gotta love getting barden, i think he'll be taken before round 3 tho......
i'm not against taking m. johnson in the 2nd either.... the only thing i dont want to do is draft a WR in the first... we dont have to worry about that tho as Tuna isnt that crazy and no one after Maclin is worth a 1st round pick.

TheBow305
03-25-2009, 02:12 AM
It's a decent mock, could be better, could be worse.

JT-forpresident
03-25-2009, 02:40 AM
the dolphins will steer clear from ramses barden, take it to the house my man

this staff loves disciplined route runners with a nicely balanced speed/size combination

Elliott 1
03-25-2009, 03:56 AM
I predict Ron Brace has a very mediocre career as a 4-3 DT somewhere other than Miami.

Probably the most overrated player in this draft.