View Full Version : The Psychology of Key Numbers in the NFL and Sports Betting Strategies

Rich Allen
09-21-2009, 10:16 PM
I want to speak to you about something you most likely never gave much thought to when wagering on football: Psychology. That's right, psychology. What I suggest when I say this is you have to take into account the psychology of certain point spreads and why bookmakers will put a game at a certain number. AND you have to imagine about the pause sportsbooks have when thinking about moving off a specific number.
When you observe all the experts on television they like to chatter about so many different numbers: the temperature in the air, quarterback ratings, total points allowed, prior winning or losing streaks, etc. But they practically never chat about the most essential number there is THE SPREAD ITSELF!
It seems so apparent and yet it gets lost in all the noise and bluster you see and hear on TV: first and leading the pointspread is THE number to think about before you bet. That's because of the scoring system in the NFL and how frequently games will land on certain key numbers. An additional term for this is 'fall-on' numbers, so called because they're numbers that closing scores frequently 'fall-on.'
In our examination we discovered that 3 is the most common 'fall-on' number in the NFL. Over the last 15 years, roughly 8% of all games have landed on this number. The number 7 is the second most frequent final margin of victory. This is no surprise, since most scoring happens in instances of 3 and 7.
But what you may not be knowledgeable about, and one of the reasons my system is particularly crucial to have at your disposal, is there are other key numbers in the NFL. You need to look especially hard at games that are listed with spreads at the individual line values of 3 and 7. But you also have to look at spreads posted at the sum total of one of each (10), the sum total of two of the same (6 and 14), and the numerical differences between the two (4). These six pointspreads are ALL key numbers. In fact, they account for roughly 45% of margins of all games.
Tying these numbers back to the psychology of the bookmaker is an important slice of the wagering process. Our study shows that installing a home team as a 3 point favorite will result in dramatically different results than when the home team is
listed as a 4 point favorite. So again, it might only be one point, but knowing what to do in the instances of that one point difference will conclude whether you are a winner or a loser this football season.
This is why my NFL System is necessary to today's serious gambler.
Good luck with all your wagers this season and don't forget about those key numbers!

Best regards,
Rich Allen - aka Sports Betting Professor

09-22-2009, 03:36 AM
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