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chosenone2334
12-29-2009, 01:50 PM
In going to NFL.com and looking at the league standings, currently we appear to be in a slot which would have us picking at 13. Now there are 4 other teams who are 7-8 as well, and I don't know how the draft order works exactly, as we beat Jacksonville, but in these standings are below them, and lost to Tennessee, and are ahead of them. I don't know how head-to-head plays into draft order. I can say I always hate to go 7-9 or 8-8, even 9-7 if we don't make the playoffs, as it hurts our draft order. But I was surprised to see us at 13, not a bad spot, especially in a deep draft. And a spot, that if we desired to trade into the top 10 to get a player we really liked, wouldn't cost as much as say, going from 18 into the top 10. Just thought maybe you guys wanted to know this information. Amazing the season is almost over already.

chosenone2334
12-29-2009, 02:00 PM
And in looking at the actual tiebreakers, it goes to strength of schedule, the team with the highest s.o.s. picks earlier. And that would come down to us and Tennessee, very close actually.

Nublar7
12-29-2009, 02:06 PM
If these season ended today(Post Week 16), Miami would have the 15th overall pick.

Deciding the draft order is different then regular season tie-breakers. Plus, a new rule was added just for the 2010 draft.

Let's start with the new rule, if a team fails to make the playoffs, they will have a draft pick between slots 1 and 20. All playoff teams will be slotted between picks 21-32.

Now, unlike regular season tie-breakers, head to head is not the second tie-breaker. The first tie-breaker is obviously overall record. The team with the worst record picks first and so on. The next tie-breaker is strength of schedule. The team with the LOWER strength of schedule actually picks first. Meaning, if you played an easier schedule then the team you are tied with, you pick first. Since Miami had a TOUGH schedule, they are at a disadvantage in this tie-breaker. If teams are still tied, then it goes to the division and conference tie-breakers.

Miami has a SOS of .554, so they actually pick last of the 7-8 teams. Though they will move up one slot as each round goes. For example, the 7-8 teams look like this post Week 16:

11. 49ers
12. Jaguars
13. Titans
14. 49ers (From Carolina)
15. Dolphins

Round 2 the order would be:

Jaguars
Titans
Panthers
Dolphins
49ers

Round 3 the order would be:

Titans
Panthers
Dolphins
49ers
Jaguars

Round 4 the order would be:

Panthers
Dolphins
49ers
Jaguars
Titans

Round 5 the order would be:

Dolphins
49ers
Jaguars
Titans
Panthers

Round 6 the order would be:

49ers
Jaguars
Titans
Panthers
Dolphins

Round 7 the order would be:

Jaguars
Titans
Panthers
Dolphins
49ers

mnphinfan
12-29-2009, 02:06 PM
And in looking at the actual tiebreakers, it goes to strength of schedule, the team with the highest s.o.s. picks earlier. And that would come down to us and Tennessee, very close actually.

Actually it's the team with the lowest strength of schedule that picks first. Here are the rules for the draft for teams who don't make the playoffs from the NFL page on wikipedia


Teams that did not make the playoffs are ordered by their regular-season record.
Remaining ties are broken by strength of schedule (http://www.finheaven.com/wiki/Strength_of_schedule). For draft order, a lower strength of schedule results in an earlier pick. If strength of schedule does not resolve a tie, division and/or conference tiebreakers may be used. If the tie still cannot be broken, a coin toss at the NFL Combine (http://www.finheaven.com/wiki/NFL_Combine) is used to determine draft order. (Note: Strength of schedule is the combined records of a team's 16 opponents, including games played against the team in question, and counting divisional opponents twice. Because of this, each team's opponents' combined wins and lossesócounting a tie as a half-win, half-lossówill add up to 256, so a team whose opponents had more combined wins has a better strength of schedule.)

greenmiamicat
12-29-2009, 02:10 PM
In going to NFL.com and looking at the league standings, currently we appear to be in a slot which would have us picking at 13. Now there are 4 other teams who are 7-8 as well, and I don't know how the draft order works exactly, as we beat Jacksonville, but in these standings are below them, and lost to Tennessee, and are ahead of them. I don't know how head-to-head plays into draft order. I can say I always hate to go 7-9 or 8-8, even 9-7 if we don't make the playoffs, as it hurts our draft order. But I was surprised to see us at 13, not a bad spot, especially in a deep draft. And a spot, that if we desired to trade into the top 10 to get a player we really liked, wouldn't cost as much as say, going from 18 into the top 10. Just thought maybe you guys wanted to know this information. Amazing the season is almost over already.
I say quit worrying yourself over it. If the FO is more worried about draft position instead of beating PIT, then you might as well rack up another W for PIT.

chosenone2334
12-29-2009, 02:23 PM
Thanks Nublar, you did the dirty work I didn't want to do. I read the strength of schedule thing wrong, my mistake. I am not worried about it, I just felt it was something fans wanted to know. As it were a week or so ago, many people were interested in all the different playoff scenarios. Now, barring a miracle, that is a moot point. And with only one game remaining, I believe most people's focus will now shift to who will be wearing the Dolphins uniform come opening day next year.

Pat-London
12-29-2009, 03:23 PM
[quote: And a spot, that if we desired to trade into the top 10 to get a player we really liked, wouldn't cost as much as say, going from 18 into the top 10. Just thought maybe you guys wanted to know this information. Amazing the season is almost over already.[/quote]


Also a spot that teams further down the list would be interested in... does anyone really want to go into the top 10 because of cost? 11-15 there is some serious talent at a much reduced price.

If Miami ends up with one of these 11-15 position picks I would not be surprised to see a trade down for a 20+ position plus a 3rd and 6th, for example.

We need a lot of help across the board, LB/NT/FS/RB/OL/WR/TE (no particular order). So I would not be surprised to see them drop down in the first and possibly drop down again.

Pinkboy
12-29-2009, 03:27 PM
Also a spot that teams further down the list would be interested in... does anyone really want to go into the top 10 because of cost? 11-15 there is some serious talent at a much reduced price.

If Miami ends up with one of these 11-15 position picks I would not be surprised to see a trade down for a 20+ position plus a 3rd and 6th, for example.

We need a lot of help across the board, LB/NT/FS/RB/OL/WR/TE (no particular order). So I would not be surprised to see them drop down in the first and possibly drop down again.

If Miami trades down in the first round they will be getting more than that.. At least a 2nd.

Teams have given up more than that to move up.

Nublar7
12-29-2009, 03:39 PM
Thanks Nublar, you did the dirty work I didn't want to do. I read the strength of schedule thing wrong, my mistake. I am not worried about it, I just felt it was something fans wanted to know. As it were a week or so ago, many people were interested in all the different playoff scenarios. Now, barring a miracle, that is a moot point. And with only one game remaining, I believe most people's focus will now shift to who will be wearing the Dolphins uniform come opening day next year.There is nothing wrong about talking about draft positioning. We as fans can look ahead and talk about these things. The team should not be focused on these things, but we are fans, not the team.

Obviously a loss helps our draft position and probably give us a pick in the top 12. A win will probably have us picking at least #15 if not lower. For me though, I would rather win and pick lower. Sure it would be better come draft day to have a higher pick, but I do not want to see my team end the season on a three game losing streak.

Miami is going to be pretty well off come draft day. Currently we have 9 picks.

1st round
2nd round
3rd round
4th round
6th round (From KC)
6th round (From Washington)
6th round
7th round (From KC)
7th round

We lost our 5th round pick when we acquired Thigpen from the Chiefs. Plus, we are in line to potentially get a compensatory pick from the league based on our free agent losses last season. I expect an extra 7th round pick or possibly an extra 6th round pick.

Dredd1050
12-29-2009, 03:51 PM
Don't close the shop just yet. Jax, Bal, Hou, NYJ and Pitt are all gonna lose this week!!!! :up:

OrlandoFin
12-29-2009, 03:53 PM
We lost our 5th round pick when we acquired Thigpen from the Chiefs. Plus, we are in line to potentially get a compensatory pick from the league based on our free agent losses last season. I expect an extra 7th round pick or possibly an extra 6th round pick.

We also have a conditional pick coming back to us from KC for the Alleman/Ndwke trade, probably end up being our 5th back...LOL

Nublar7
12-29-2009, 03:56 PM
We also have a conditional pick coming back to us from KC for the Alleman/Ndwke trade, probably end up being our 5th back...LOLWe got a 6th round pick in the Alleman/Nduwke trade. I included that pick as one of the 9.

OrlandoFin
12-29-2009, 03:59 PM
We got a 6th round pick in the Alleman/Nduwke trade. I included that pick as one of the 9.

OK, I didn't think that was decided yet.

tay0365
12-29-2009, 04:04 PM
The team with the weaker strength of schedule picks first
it won't make too much difference after Miami loses this week since there won't be many 7-9 teams. If they win they are really screwing themselves

Ah, the defeatest attitude....yet again. :rolleyes2:

You never lose a game on purpose just for the case of getting a higher draft pick.

SpaceMountain16
12-29-2009, 04:35 PM
What is the highest possible pick we can get at this point and what would we need to happen to get it? Assuming we lose Sunday which we will.

Nublar7
12-29-2009, 06:13 PM
What is the highest possible pick we can get at this point and what would we need to happen to get it? Assuming we lose Sunday which we will.Mathematically, Miami can pick anywhere between #11 and #32 as crazy as that might seem.

Obviously the only way they could get to #32 is if they win the Super Bowl. But to do that they need to make the playoffs, which surprisingly they are mathematically still alive for. Realistically though Miami will fall somewhere between #11 and #20 depending on the results of this weekend.

To get #11, the highest possible pick they are eligible for, the following would need to happen:

Pittsburgh beats Miami
Tennessee beats Seattle
San Francisco beats St. Louis
Jacksonville beats Cleveland
Carolina beats New Orleans

If all that happens, Miami will have the #11 overall pick. I personally do not want that scenario to happen, because I want to see Miami beat the Steelers. I don't want to finish the season 7-9.

MrEd
12-29-2009, 06:19 PM
And in looking at the actual tiebreakers, it goes to strength of schedule, the team with the highest s.o.s. picks earlier. And that would come down to us and Tennessee, very close actually.

Nah, its the opposite in the draft order, its the team with the "easier" strength of schedule that picks earlier. remember, the draft is to help the 'bad' teams not the good teams.:ponder:

Nublar7
12-29-2009, 09:38 PM
Nah, its the opposite in the draft order, its the team with the "easier" strength of schedule that picks earlier. remember, the draft is to help the 'bad' teams not the good teams.:ponder:Exactly, you don't want the Patriots picking first every year.

Look at how bad the Rams have been. They picked 2nd in 2008, 2nd in 2009 and likely 1st in 2010. Wow!

dolfan91
12-29-2009, 10:13 PM
i just read on a KC newspaper site that KC is looking at Okung, Berry and Bryant as the possible pick @ # 3... although, they feel it will come down to Berry and Okung!!! scary thought, especially if Bryant is the target for Miami @ # 11-14

Nawledge
12-29-2009, 10:58 PM
where is R. McClain expected to go?

ArmyFin7
12-30-2009, 12:14 PM
Denver

ticophin
12-30-2009, 02:54 PM
There is a chance that we lose and pick 11th (something that some are hoping for)...and we might pick a player that may, or may not make an impact on this team...
But, if there is still a possibility mathematically for Miami to make the playoffs, and consequentially win, and play the SB home, however unprobable, but mathematically possible........I WILL HOPE FOR THAT POSSIBILITY ON SUNDAY!!!!

Dolphin Dave
12-30-2009, 02:58 PM
There is nothing wrong about talking about draft positioning. We as fans can look ahead and talk about these things. The team should not be focused on these things, but we are fans, not the team.

Obviously a loss helps our draft position and probably give us a pick in the top 12. A win will probably have us picking at least #15 if not lower. For me though, I would rather win and pick lower. Sure it would be better come draft day to have a higher pick, but I do not want to see my team end the season on a three game losing streak.

Miami is going to be pretty well off come draft day. Currently we have 9 picks.

1st round
2nd round
3rd round
4th round
6th round (From KC)
6th round (From Washington)
6th round
7th round (From KC)
7th round

We lost our 5th round pick when we acquired Thigpen from the Chiefs. Plus, we are in line to potentially get a compensatory pick from the league based on our free agent losses last season. I expect an extra 7th round pick or possibly an extra 6th round pick.


I have seen this several times that we gave up a 5th but have not found a hard source. Most sources that I have been able to find mention conditional pick but nothing solid. Have you got a link that specified a 5th?

Gordykr
12-30-2009, 03:00 PM
I assume the draft order for picks 1-20 can be sorted after this weekends games , we'll then know where were picking (assuming we don't pull off the miracle this weekend and make the playoffs) ?

tay0365
12-31-2009, 02:34 PM
I have seen this several times that we gave up a 5th but have not found a hard source. Most sources that I have been able to find mention conditional pick but nothing solid. Have you got a link that specified a 5th?

We gave a 5th round pick to KC for Thigpen.

Ozfin77
12-31-2009, 07:43 PM
If you Google with the words Miami 5th, Thigpen, Trade etc....There'll be plenty of info/confirmation to be found on the trade...

As for our draft position, if we do happen to lose to Pittsburgh and we get the 11th pick in the draft think about this for a second...

What happens IF Chicago beat Detroit and the Bears finish at 7-9 also.

I've tried working out all of that strength of schedule stuff, but whenever I do I get different results to what the internet sites have listed, so not sure if i'm doing it right....

So...to get to my point...We're at 7-9 and Chicago are at 7-9 and as you all know Denver hold Chicago's pick after a trade last year.

Denver are reported to be the team who will take Rolando McClain before we even get a shot at him with this pick.

Can someone take a look at this and confirm if they'd be the pick before us, which if this is the case, I'd really hope Tuna seriously considers working out a deal with someone to move ahead of Denver and get Rolando....We desperately need help in the middle of the field and McCLain would make a huge difference straight away!!

jlfin
01-01-2010, 12:20 AM
[quote: And a spot, that if we desired to trade into the top 10 to get a player we really liked, wouldn't cost as much as say, going from 18 into the top 10. Just thought maybe you guys wanted to know this information. Amazing the season is almost over already.


Also a spot that teams further down the list would be interested in... does anyone really want to go into the top 10 because of cost? 11-15 there is some serious talent at a much reduced price.

If Miami ends up with one of these 11-15 position picks I would not be surprised to see a trade down for a 20+ position plus a 3rd and 6th, for example.

We need a lot of help across the board, LB/NT/FS/RB/OL/WR/TE (no particular order). So I would not be surprised to see them drop down in the first and possibly drop down again.[/quote]

Disagree. The FO has done a good job building a foundation and they are solid in the trenches.
They will address 1-2 positions in FA.
The defense needs impact players( especially at LB), not a bunch of bodies. That's what they have been doing the last 2 seasons.
Every team in the league has some starters who are average at their positions. But, what sets them apart are 1-2 impact players on offense and defense. That is what the Phins are lacking.
They can play toe to toe in the trenches with any team in the league.

jlfin
01-01-2010, 12:22 AM
If you Google with the words Miami 5th, Thigpen, Trade etc....There'll be plenty of info/confirmation to be found on the trade...

As for our draft position, if we do happen to lose to Pittsburgh and we get the 11th pick in the draft think about this for a second...

What happens IF Chicago beat Detroit and the Bears finish at 7-9 also.

I've tried working out all of that strength of schedule stuff, but whenever I do I get different results to what the internet sites have listed, so not sure if i'm doing it right....

So...to get to my point...We're at 7-9 and Chicago are at 7-9 and as you all know Denver hold Chicago's pick after a trade last year.

Denver are reported to be the team who will take Rolando McClain before we even get a shot at him with this pick.

Can someone take a look at this and confirm if they'd be the pick before us, which if this is the case, I'd really hope Tuna seriously considers working out a deal with someone to move ahead of Denver and get Rolando....We desperately need help in the middle of the field and McCLain would make a huge difference straight away!!

I noticed the same thing as I was perusing some of the mock draft sites.

Ozfin77
01-01-2010, 01:32 AM
Strength of Schedule after week 16;

Miami 7-8 (.554)

Chicago 6-9 (.492)

I think the gap will be too big to make up to get ahead of Denver....Time to work a trade...lol!