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View Full Version : Accuracy of a couple of draft experts



Dwight57
03-30-2010, 05:36 AM
For years now I have come to really enjoy reading about draft prospects and comparing the analysis from expert to expert. I have subscribed to Kiper and Ourlads since the 90's and I decided to take a look at how accurate they are to rating the prospects compared to where they are picked. It doesn't mean they know who will be good but rather what team picks who and where based on film study, interviews, rumors, etc....
So below is the data I compiled. I simply added the delta of the expert's ranking to where the player was picked and then took an average of how far off they were. Crude but it's an apples to apples comparison of these two draft experts.

2009
1st round variance Kiper = 6.4 Ourlads = 12.9
2nd round variance Kiper = 18 Ourlads = 23

2008
1st round variance Kiper = 7.6 Ourlads = 11.2

I know there so many more draft experts out there but these are the two I have data on. I know Kiper can be annoying but the data says here that he's the winner.
I must say I really enjoy the work of the guys at Universal so it would be interesting to see how they would rank.
So who is your favorite draft expert?

normaniii
03-30-2010, 05:52 AM
am i reading this wrong?

rrrrphin
03-30-2010, 06:02 AM
my favorite draft expert is jeff ireland

i think Dwight57 might want to look at the huddlereport. they try and track "expert" prognostications on the draft

http://www.thehuddlereport.com/Free/top100scoring.shtml

gosselin has very impressive results

bdhock
03-30-2010, 06:23 AM
This will be the first year I got Ourlads instead of Kiper, from what you say Kiper may be better. I have been following the draft for several years, I have draft guides from the early 80's written by Joel Baushbaum from PFW I always thought he was the best. Even though he did write Dan Marino was a good but not great prospect.

#1dolphinsfan
03-30-2010, 06:25 AM
I really like mike mayock

bdhock
03-30-2010, 06:27 AM
This will be the first year I got Ourlads instead of Kiper, from what you say Kiper may be better. I have been following the draft for several years, I have draft guides from the early 80's written by Joel Baushbaum from PFW I always thought he was the best. Even though he did write Dan Marino was a good but not great prospect.
I forgot to mention Baushbaum died several years ago. Nolan Nawrocki replaced him at PFW he seems ok.

bdhock
03-30-2010, 06:31 AM
I really like mike mayock
I like Maylock to , even though he does seem to fall in love with certain players like Pat White at QB.

Roman529
03-30-2010, 06:41 AM
I like Pat Kirwan's picks...he usually does a great job year in and year out. Here is his March 22nd updated draft. He has us taking Sergio Kindle at #12:

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story?id=09000d5d81714d0c&template=with-video-with-comments&confirm=true

Dwight57
03-30-2010, 06:59 AM
This will be the first year I got Ourlads instead of Kiper, from what you say Kiper may be better. I have been following the draft for several years, I have draft guides from the early 80's written by Joel Baushbaum from PFW I always thought he was the best. Even though he did write Dan Marino was a good but not great prospect.
Yeah I get both Ourlads and Kiper. I like the different angles each one takes. I remember Buschbaum, I thought he was good as well.

Dwight57
03-30-2010, 07:02 AM
I like Pat Kirwan's picks...he usually does a great job year in and year out. Here is his March 22nd updated draft. He has us taking Sergio Kindle at #12:

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story?id=09000d5d81714d0c&template=with-video-with-comments&confirm=true
The thing I like about Kirwan and Mayock is that they must have some inside info because both were part of the league at some point. I would imagine that most of these guys get some inside when trying to project the player rankings.

bdhock
03-30-2010, 02:59 PM
I get lindys draft magazine in early march ,its really good for an early look at the prospect. Its done by NFLdraftscout.com which is not a bad draft website. Maylocks my favorite because you can tell he really loves this stuff.Kiper is not my favorite but the guy started his business in his basement.

j-off-her-doll
03-30-2010, 05:33 PM
I like Pat Kirwan's picks...he usually does a great job year in and year out. Here is his March 22nd updated draft. He has us taking Sergio Kindle at #12:

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story?id=09000d5d81714d0c&template=with-video-with-comments&confirm=true

Kirwan's latest mock is terrible. Don't care for K-dog.

jim1
03-30-2010, 05:43 PM
This will be the first year I got Ourlads instead of Kiper, from what you say Kiper may be better. I have been following the draft for several years, I have draft guides from the early 80's written by Joel Baushbaum from PFW I always thought he was the best. Even though he did write Dan Marino was a good but not great prospect.

Joel Buchsbaum was my all time favorite. Great, great draft guy. Sorely missed after his death, too. His yearly draft guide was the best, couldn't wait to get it every year when it came out. Who woulda thunk that this was a draft genius?:

http://www.finheaven.com/clear.gif

Phin-Phan 66
03-30-2010, 09:09 PM
If you love football and look like that - graft genius is your only option