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View Full Version : Trade Down Possibility With Broncos



Aqua and Orange
04-04-2011, 10:15 AM
According to Rotoworld, the Broncos are interested in trading picks with someone to get another first rounder to draft Christian Ponder.

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/6433/christian-ponder

The Broncos have two relatively high second rounders, the #36 and #46 pick. If they feel strongly about getting him, the numbers are comparable enough that we could execute a trade of our #15 pick for their #36 and #46 pick. This would give us back the pick we gave up for Brandon Marshall and a high 2nd.

Depending on what Seattle does at #25 and Cincy does at pick #35, the Dolphins could have a chance to snare Ryan Mallett with that pick and have another 2nd rounder to boot.

Personally, I would rather just draft our QB of the future (hopefully Ponder or Mallett) with the #15 pick outright, but that line of thinking doesn't seem to fit the team's style.

Thoughts?

emeraldfin
04-04-2011, 10:54 AM
Personally, I would rather just draft our QB of the future (hopefully Ponder or Mallett) with the #15 pick outright, but that line of thinking doesn't seem to fit the team's style.


I'm all for trading down, but to trade out of the 1st round and losing out on Ponder/Mallett in the process I dont like. But if they dont intend on drafting a QB then its quite possible. At those spots you could end up picking up guys like Leshoure, Rudolph, Torrey Smith or even Ingram if you believe in the rumours circulating about his knee.

ckparrothead
04-04-2011, 10:56 AM
I forget who I was reading recently, it was an NFC personnel exec talking about these QBs and the 1st round and the basic gist of it was, these teams that think they can sit passively and wait for a guy to fall to them probably have another thing coming because he thinks a lot of teams are going to position themselves to not let the players they like fall out of the top 32 picks. I think Ryan Mallett has to be front and center for that sentiment.

Wishfishin
04-04-2011, 11:48 AM
Trading down is in the cards. I personally do not want to see us missing the opportunity to make a choice in the first round so I am hoping a team with a pick somewhere between 23-30 will trade up with the Fins and we get their first and second rounder.

Elliott 1
04-04-2011, 12:59 PM
This has been one of my favorite trade down possibilities. Didn't think it would involve a QB for Denver, and I'm skeptical of that actually happening. I could see them trading up for one of the premiere pass rushers. If Bowers really slides, I could see that happening.

#32 QB.......Kaepernick
#46 ILB......Martez Wilson
3rd TE.......Jordan Cameron
4th RB.......Alex Green
5th OG/C...Mike Person
6th WR.....Aldrick Robinson
7th OLB....Marc Schiechl
7th DT......Blaine Sumner
7th FB.......Allen Bradford

Aqua and Orange
04-04-2011, 01:09 PM
I forget who I was reading recently, it was an NFC personnel exec talking about these QBs and the 1st round and the basic gist of it was, these teams that think they can sit passively and wait for a guy to fall to them probably have another thing coming because he thinks a lot of teams are going to position themselves to not let the players they like fall out of the top 32 picks. I think Ryan Mallett has to be front and center for that sentiment.

Very much agree. I hate the idea of this team "getting cute" and hoping that their QB slides down. After hearing they did that with Chad Henne, it made me seriously question how committed they were to the position, and Chad Henne in particular, in the first place.

hooshoops
04-04-2011, 01:11 PM
This has been one of my favorite trade down possibilities. Didn't think it would involve a QB for Denver, and I'm skeptical of that actually happening. I could see them trading up for one of the premiere pass rushers. If Bowers really slides, I could see that happening.

#32 QB.......Kaepernick
#46 ILB......Martez Wilson
3rd TE.......Jordan Cameron
4th RB.......Alex Green
5th OG/C...Mike Person
6th WR.....Aldrick Robinson
7th OLB....Marc Schiechl
7th DT......Blaine Sumner
7th FB.......Allen Bradford

how the heck does bowers fit a 3-4 defense??? he's a 4-3 end all the way

greasyObnoxious
04-04-2011, 01:12 PM
how the heck does bowers fit a 3-4 defense??? he's a 4-3 end all the way

denver is reportedly going to use a 4-3

datruth55
04-04-2011, 01:18 PM
If Denver throws in their 4th rounder or their 5th and 6th rounders I would make that trade but if we're going to trade out of the first round completely I would prefer to gain a first rounder for next year. Two 2nd round picks is not enough to trade back into the first round IMO.

hooshoops
04-04-2011, 01:18 PM
denver is reportedly going to use a 4-3

ahhh...i misread it...i thought he was referring to miami instead of denver...my bad...i was gonna say our own lb coach bryan cox put bowers thru lb drills and kept saying out loud during the drills how stiff bowers was...not a 3-4 olb at all

datruth55
04-04-2011, 01:19 PM
denver is reportedly going to use a 4-3

That would make sense with Fox as head coach...but they will lose most of Dumervil's effectiveness. He wasn't nearly as good rushing the passer from a 3-point stance as a DE than he was as an OLB in the 3-4.

hooshoops
04-04-2011, 01:33 PM
they're gonna use dumervil like the colts use dwight freeney

Aqua and Orange
04-04-2011, 01:34 PM
If Denver throws in their 4th rounder or their 5th and 6th rounders I would make that trade but if we're going to trade out of the first round completely I would prefer to gain a first rounder for next year. Two 2nd round picks is not enough to trade back into the first round IMO.

Unfortunately, calculating this trade with the draft positions it is already slightly favoring Miami value-wise. Since that Broncos pick is the 5th in the 2nd round, its value is still pretty high.

I would rather go with a trade that keeps us on the back end of the first round myself, but this trade scenario with the Broncos seems like a good possibility with the teams' recent trade history that gave them that extra second rounder in the first place.

Fin Thirteen
04-04-2011, 01:43 PM
If the Fins did this, it would be to abandon their hopes of getting a franchise QB in this draft and focus on other positions. They might take a project QB late, but they'd be only doing this if they felt none of the QBs was worth a R1 pick and they're gonna work with Henne and/or a veteran for 2011/12.

I can't see them doing a trade-down deal and still aiming for a QB, as there are too many teams looking for one to risk a QB falling. Neither Newton nor Gabbert are falling out of the top 10. Locker, Mallett, Ponder and Kaepernick are all likely to rise if anything. One of them might be around late in the first, but it'll be a case of getting someone else's leftovers.

The workouts suggest they're going for a QB in R1. I don't think two 2nds for a first is tempting enough to change that plan. There'd have to be something more in it.

Canadi-Phin
04-04-2011, 01:44 PM
What's crazy is listening to Pat Kirwan on Sirius on Friday and he had us taking Bowers because of the pure value at that spot. They didn't do trades. If Bowers is there we defintely will have a trade partner. Even if its back just a few spots and grab another 3rd.

datruth55
04-04-2011, 01:51 PM
Unfortunately, calculating this trade with the draft positions it is already slightly favoring Miami value-wise. Since that Broncos pick is the 5th in the 2nd round, its value is still pretty high.

I would rather go with a trade that keeps us on the back end of the first round myself, but this trade scenario with the Broncos seems like a good possibility with the teams' recent trade history that gave them that extra second rounder in the first place.

15th overall pick has a value of 1050. The 36th pick is 540 and the 46th pick is 440, that's 980 and a deficit of 70 for Miami. The trade would favor Denver considerably. I just looked and Denver doesn't have a 4th or a 5th so that's out. They have the 24th pick in the 6th round which is only worth 17.8 points...still short. They also have the 2nd pick in the 7th round which is 13.8 points...add all of that up (#36, #46, #184, #194) and you get 1011.6 points...still short of the 1050 for the #15 overall pick.

Two 2nd round picks from Denver is not enough for #15. Not to mention you're trading quality for quantity here.

hooshoops
04-04-2011, 01:55 PM
the problem with this trade down scenario is if its qb you are targetting trading out of round 1 and into pick #36 is gonna leave you with slim pickings at the position...as much need as there is for qbs right now any team that needs a qb in the top 12 or so and passes is gonna be looking to trade back back up into the late portions of round 1 for a ponder or a mallet if he gets there...at least thats what i would be thinking...

if i'm trading down the farthest i want to go to have a shot at mallet or ponder is pick #25...and that may even be dicey...

Aqua and Orange
04-04-2011, 01:59 PM
15th overall pick has a value of 1050. The 36th pick is 540 and the 46th pick is 440, that's 980 and a deficit of 70 for Miami. The trade would favor Denver considerably.

It looks like we were likely using different calculators. The one I used has the 15 spot worth 1200, the 36 spot worth 745 and the 46 spot worth 627 (totaling 1372). Either way, they are rather close and it would take a pretty late pick to make up the difference.

hooshoops
04-04-2011, 02:00 PM
What's crazy is listening to Pat Kirwan on Sirius on Friday and he had us taking Bowers because of the pure value at that spot. They didn't do trades. If Bowers is there we defintely will have a trade partner. Even if its back just a few spots and grab another 3rd.

i don't know...i've heard that numerous teams have long term concerns about bowers knee...and the guy was really out of shape at his pro day...ugly showing

there's no way we should take bowers though...where you play him??? not a 3-4 olb not a 3-4 end...fish out of water in a 3-4

datruth55
04-04-2011, 02:02 PM
It looks like we were likely using different calculators. The one I used has the 15 spot worth 1200, the 36 spot worth 745 and the 46 spot worth 627 (totaling 1372). Either way, they are rather close and it would take a pretty late pick to make up the difference.

Use ESPN's value chart (although it's the same one I've seen at other places). http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft06/news/story?id=2410670

datruth55
04-04-2011, 02:05 PM
i don't know...i've heard that numerous teams have long term concerns about bowers knee...and the guy was really out of shape at his pro day...ugly showing

there's no way we should take bowers though...where you play him??? not a 3-4 olb not a 3-4 end...fish out of water in a 3-4

Same thing I thought when we draft Phillip Merling. Didn't see a spot for him in the 3-4 and he, IMO, has never developed into a solid 3-4 DE. Probably why we took Odrick.

Aqua and Orange
04-04-2011, 02:23 PM
the problem with this trade down scenario is if its qb you are targetting trading out of round 1 and into pick #36 is gonna leave you with slim pickings at the position...as much need as there is for qbs right now any team that needs a qb in the top 12 or so and passes is gonna be looking to trade back back up into the late portions of round 1 for a ponder or a mallet if he gets there...at least thats what i would be thinking...

if i'm trading down the farthest i want to go to have a shot at mallet or ponder is pick #25...and that may even be dicey...

Agreed. The Dolphins would be taking a major chance in any trade down scenario with not getting their QB, if that is indeed what they are serious about doing. Ponder especially is really looking like someone that could get taken in the back end of the 1st round, and I would hate to see him taken. As I've said in previous posts, I've had only 3 QBs I didn't want to see another team take when we passed on them: Drew Brees, Kevin Kolb, and now possibly Christian Ponder.

I will state on the record that I am not a fan of Colin Kaepernick, who the Dolphins really appear interested in.

SCOTTY
04-04-2011, 02:24 PM
According to Rotoworld, the Broncos are interested in trading picks with someone to get another first rounder to draft Christian Ponder.

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/6433/christian-ponder

The Broncos have two relatively high second rounders, the #36 and #46 pick. If they feel strongly about getting him, the numbers are comparable enough that we could execute a trade of our #15 pick for their #36 and #46 pick. This would give us back the pick we gave up for Brandon Marshall and a high 2nd.

Depending on what Seattle does at #25 and Cincy does at pick #35, the Dolphins could have a chance to snare Ryan Mallett with that pick and have another 2nd rounder to boot.

Personally, I would rather just draft our QB of the future (hopefully Ponder or Mallett) with the #15 pick outright, but that line of thinking doesn't seem to fit the team's style.

Thoughts?

The only good thing about this trade is that Denver would draft Ponder and so another crappy QB that everyone on this sight wants for some reason(??) won't be available!

hooshoops
04-04-2011, 02:27 PM
on the other hand if you do trade out of round 1 and to pick #36 you are probably right in kaepernicks wheel house...which i personally would hate

Show Me Your TDs
04-04-2011, 02:27 PM
What's crazy is listening to Pat Kirwan on Sirius on Friday and he had us taking Bowers because of the pure value at that spot. They didn't do trades. If Bowers is there we defintely will have a trade partner. Even if its back just a few spots and grab another 3rd.

This is what I see happening. More than likely we will trade down only a few spots with a team after one of the DL prospects that have fallen. I don't think we will drop down to far knowing me need QB help.

Show Me Your TDs
04-04-2011, 02:30 PM
Or for example if the NY Giants trade up for a tackle prospect we should be able to acquire their 3rd rounder seeing that they own pick #19 and moving up to #15 would cost 175 points in the old system which is what their 3rd rounder is worth.

hooshoops
04-04-2011, 02:36 PM
Or for example if the NY Giants trade up for a tackle prospect we should be able to acquire their 3rd rounder seeing that they own pick #19 and moving up to #15 would cost 175 points in the old system which is what their 3rd rounder is worth.

that makes sense but why wouldn't a good tackle prospect be available at #19??? the only one that i think has top 10 potential is tyron smith to dallas at #9

Aqua and Orange
04-04-2011, 02:37 PM
The only good thing about this trade is that Denver would draft Ponder and so another crappy QB that everyone on this sight wants for some reason(??) won't be available!

Our views differ on Ponder, but everyone is entitled to their opinion. Out of curiosity, what do you dislike about him?

zach8111
04-04-2011, 02:37 PM
Unfortunately, calculating this trade with the draft positions it is already slightly favoring Miami value-wise. Since that Broncos pick is the 5th in the 2nd round, its value is still pretty high.

I would rather go with a trade that keeps us on the back end of the first round myself, but this trade scenario with the Broncos seems like a good possibility with the teams' recent trade history that gave them that extra second rounder in the first place.

that "value chart" you are going by means nothing. If the Broncos really want the #15 pick they will give up more. I highly doubt we'd only get two 2nds out of our #15 pick

hooshoops
04-04-2011, 02:46 PM
i think if you are looking to trade back a few spots 5 or so a team that makes sense is tampa...they could use a pass rushing 4-3 de and imo a guy like aldon smith or a daquan bowers should they get to us at pick #15 could be too good to pass up for the bucs...ryan kerrigans name is gaining steam also

drop to #20 pick up a 3rd rounder...nothing says can't drop down again at #20 and acquire more assets should nothing be to your liking then either...i see the value in a trade down being 4-3 de...i can see teams coming up for those guys

at #20 if your qbs there jump on him before you get trumped

damanref10
04-04-2011, 02:58 PM
Our views differ on Ponder, but everyone is entitled to their opinion. Out of curiosity, what do you dislike about him?

I am in my 3rd year at FSU right now, so ive had plenty of in person views of him. He is a good quarterback. GOOD. not great. not exceptional. but good.

I believe he can be a decent quarterback at the next level, but i think the snowball has gotten waaaaaaay to big rolling downhill on this guy.

(Probably a similar effect the CK had when he brought up TJ Yates)
Talk about taking him at 15 is just ludicrous. He should fall into the same situation Henne did on draft day, hes in the second tier of QB's for this years class and should be drafted accordingly.

SCOTTY
04-04-2011, 02:59 PM
Our views differ on Ponder, but everyone is entitled to their opinion. Out of curiosity, what do you dislike about him?

Difference of opinion is cool. That's why I love this sight. My dislikes: Armstrenght-I don't think he possess the long ball or can handle the long out that is necessary in the NFL. Duribility-He already has had scar tissue removed from his elbow. It doesn't get better from there only worse. Accuracy-This is the biggest issue. Not only does he stare receivers down(we already have a QB that does that), but his read progression decision were not near what an NFL prospect should be.

Elliott 1
04-04-2011, 03:34 PM
Like I have said for years, there are too many people on this site who treat the trade value chart like it was something instituted by the NFL.

These FO types have egos way too big to pay attention to some trade chart that Bill Walsh made up 35 years ago. They make their own value judgements.

Where does this come from anyway? Video games?

SCOTTY
04-04-2011, 03:55 PM
Like I have said for years, there are too many people on this site who treat the trade value chart like it was something instituted by the NFL.

These FO types have egos way too big to pay attention to some trade chart that Bill Walsh made up 35 years ago. They make their own value judgements.

Where does this come from anyway? Video games?

Totally agree. I love for Denver to be on the phone with Maimi:

Denver: We will give you our two picks in the 2nd for your first because the ESPN chart trade value says that is equal.

Miami: Click.