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View Full Version : I don't usually like Omar's columns, but...



DKphin
04-07-2011, 05:57 PM
... I like this piece on Kapernick. The article asks "Is he worth a 1st rd investment?" I would say no, but I would not be mad if we got him in the second rd. I really like his work effort and he is always striving to improve i.e. he attends a camp every year in addition to the coaching he got at college:

Plenty of teams and talent evaluators LIKE Kaepernick, who has worked out for about a dozen teams, including the Miami Dolphins. I’m told by insiders from two different teams that Kaepernick won’t get past the second round. ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. projects he’ll be taken by the San Francisco 49ers early in the third round.
Kaepernick is rated in the second tier of quarterbacks, behind Missouri’s Blaine Gabbert and Auburn’s Cam Newton, who are both viewed as top 10 selections. He’s in the mix with players like Arkansas’ Ryan Mallett, Washington’s Jake Locker, FSU’s Christian Ponder and TCU’s Andy Dalton.
He has more raw tools than all four (that includes Mallett, who can’t move), and is a cleaner prospects than some in this group.
Considering all of those individuals could become first-round picks, why can’t Kaepernick?
The only issues that keeps me from putting Kaepernick on my man crush list is….
1. A hitch in his throwing motion, which could become troublesome on out-routes. It’s a similar problem to the one that has plagued Byron Leftwich (58 touchdowns and 41 interceptions), and hurt Tim Tebow during the draft process last year.
2. The fact Kaepernick hasn’t played the highest caliber of competition at Nevada. If he was competing in the SEC, Big 10, ACC, hell….even the Big East we wouldn’t be having this discussion.
3. And the belief that Kaepernick’s experience running a Pistol offense means he’ll need a season or two to blossom into the quarterback he has the potential to become.
During the interview I had with Kaepernick, which is posted on this blog, we addressed all those issues.
Despite all his warts, it’s possible that some bold team will fall in love with Kaepernick, much like the Ravens did with Delaware’s Joe Flacco in 2008, and get froggy. Why not the Miami Dolphins?
“Kaepernick has the size, the speed and the strong arm, but not fundamental mechanics you want coming into the league,” Kiper said during Wednesday’s conference call.
“It’s the same with Tebow,” Kiper said, referring to Denver’s 2010 first-round pick, who started the last three games last season and completed 50 percent of his passes. “With the pads on, they go back to the same old ways.
Keapernick has worked on speeding up his delivery, but Kiper points out those type of fixes are short-term.
“That’s fine. It’s an optimistic viewpoint. But until you get into an NFL scenario, that’s wen you’ll see if he can maintain those changes. Does muscle memory take over?”
They absolutely do, which is why I’d never endorse changing a player’s throwing mechanics at this point considering it’s gotten him to the NFL.
“I think he’s a [good] prospect, but long term. You’ve got to be patient with him. I think [starting in] year two or year three he’ll be better off. But this is a league where they force players to play…. Kaepernick will probably play [quickly], and he’ll struggle.”
But is Kaepernick worth the investment?
http://blogs.sun-sentinel.com/sports_football_dolphins/2011/04/is-colin-kaepernick-worth-a-1st-round-investment.html

footsteps_falco
04-07-2011, 06:12 PM
I just feel like with Kaepernickm, if you're going to take a QB that high there's better options, otherwise I would want to wait till the later rounds and target guys like stanzi, enderle, yates ect ect who seem to have as much promise as a kaepernick at a much lower cost. if it were me picking high in the draft, i would either go QB like mallett/ponder who i feel have a decent shot at unseating henne.. the locker and kaepernick group just seems like a high pick on a guy whos immediate contribution won't warrant the low 1st or 2nd round pick.

j-off-her-doll
04-08-2011, 09:51 AM
I'd MUCH rather gamble on Locker than Kaepernick, and I'm not high on Locker.

Chubby
04-08-2011, 10:15 AM
I'd MUCH rather gamble on Locker than Kaepernick, and I'm not high on Locker.
I feel exactly the same, I am not a huge Jake Locker fan but if Had to take one at that point in the draft and Mallet,Gabbert & Netwon were gone he is the guy i would take.

There is something about Jake Locker that bothers me, while I am not a fan, I do beleive he is one of those guys that teams will regret overlooking for many years to come, there is just something about him that makes me feel that way.

ckparrothead
04-08-2011, 10:22 AM
http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/sports/columnists/hyde/blog/2011/03/draft_winds.html

I wrote that piece before I went ahead and quantified Kaepernick's release (along with Mallett's, Yates', Dalton's, Ponder's, etc).

What I found is that Colin's release DOES take more time. You'd think that would be the "duh" statement of the year, but some folks just don't see it that way. They see the hitch but they think he makes up for it somehow or another. I don't know, I'm not going to even pretend to know the logic behind the people that think his release is actually the same as any other quarterback's.

Bottom line is Colin Kaepernick, because of his release, gives defenses an extra tenth of a second to get on the ball. That may seem trivial, until you put it into context. For those fans of the Combine out there, a lot of people make a fairly big deal of the 10 yard split on the 40 yard dash. They'll split hairs about 0.05 seconds on the 10 yard split, touting so-and-so for running a 1.53 versus so-and-so that ran a 1.58. Well, Colin Kaepernick's throwing motion alone makes all those DBs and all those LBs look like 1.50 guys versus 1.60 or 1.65 or even (versus some quarterbacks, like T.J. Yates) like a 1.70 player.

The physics of the game are important. This is not a game of yards and seconds, it's a game of inches and fractions of a second.

Of course Colin Kaepernick can overcome this handicap, there aren't many handicaps a quarterback can't overcome through a combination of other tools in their toolbox. But considering his agility and escapability not being at the same unique level as his straight line build-up speed, considering his experience in an overly simplistic offense where he didn't have to read the field that well or make timely decisions, I just tend to think there are too many things working against him. Because of his lack of experience in a pro style offense, he's already very likely to start out his career making late decisions and late throws, and his slow throwing motion is only going to make that even worse. And Kiper's right. You get into the NFL and the body memory is there, that motion is going to keep showing up no matter what you do.

The other thing that bothers me about him is he had four years of starting at Nevada to get the kinks in his game worked out, and he still wasn't a significantly different quarterback as a senior as opposed to what he was as a freshman. I'm sure his coaches would be incensed by that statement and they would point out all the progress he's made but we're speaking relatively here. You could say the same thing about Chad Henne's first three years in the NFL (or his four years in Michigan, for that matter), and I'm sure Tony Sparano would take issue and point out several throws of his that have gotten better, areas of progress he's made, etc. And yet, we all know the point would still stand: there hasn't been an overly significant amount of progress in Chad Henne's game since he's been in the NFL. That bothers me a little because Kaepernick is a very smart guy, and supposedly a saint off the field. What held him back? Why didn't he get better? It makes me think that even though he's a smart guy there could be limitations mentally that prevent him from making significant progress in the pros. Of course I could be wrong, it's just a concern not proof of anything.

TedSlimmJr
04-08-2011, 10:30 AM
Colin Kaepernick is going to have to compensate for his elongated delivery with exceptional ball placement in the NFL, especially in certain situations and against specific coverages. Timing and anticipation is going to be of the essence with a guy like that. Being merely in the "strike zone" won't always be good enough like it was in the WAC...

ckparrothead
04-08-2011, 12:00 PM
I think the timing and anticipation in particular are going to be difficult for him because of the offense he comes out of and the fact that he's resisted learning that stuff. But you're right, even when he does get that, the ball placement is going to have to be there because of the delivery, and it hasn't always been. Generally a pretty accurate guy, but that doesn't mean he's placing the ball right. He's an accurate thrower but he doesn't own the football yet.

Finfanforever
04-09-2011, 07:43 AM
I would not touch him...the Dolphins have too many needs to invest a pick in this kid. I know QB...at least IMO is the #1 need but we need a QB that will challenge Henne, not some 3+ year project. He remind me of a combination of Ray Lucas and Pat White...not good!

retarmyfinfan
04-09-2011, 12:40 PM
I really can't stand Kiper, but I have to agree with him on QB's changing their delivery. It's all fine in practice, but when a person is under a pressure situation they usually revert back to what they are comfortable with. It's natural.

Gonzo
04-09-2011, 01:18 PM
Part of me hopes we don't find a way to pick up a 2nd round pick, just because the thought of picking up ANOTHER 2nd round QB makes me physically ill.

Austin Tatious
04-10-2011, 09:01 PM
http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/sports/columnists/hyde/blog/2011/03/draft_winds.html


The other thing that bothers me about him is he had four years of starting at Nevada to get the kinks in his game worked out, and he still wasn't a significantly different quarterback as a senior as opposed to what he was as a freshman. I'm sure his coaches would be incensed by that statement and they would point out all the progress he's made but we're speaking relatively here. You could say the same thing about Chad Henne's first three years in the NFL (or his four years in Michigan, for that matter), and I'm sure Tony Sparano would take issue and point out several throws of his that have gotten better, areas of progress he's made, etc. And yet, we all know the point would still stand: there hasn't been an overly significant amount of progress in Chad Henne's game since he's been in the NFL. That bothers me a little because Kaepernick is a very smart guy, and supposedly a saint off the field. What held him back? Why didn't he get better? It makes me think that even though he's a smart guy there could be limitations mentally that prevent him from making significant progress in the pros. Of course I could be wrong, it's just a concern not proof of anything.


This is something I have been thinking about as well. I saw Henne play alot his freshman year at UM and I thought for sure that he would be a top 10 pick eventually. And he just hasn't really changed since then. Every kid is different, but this may be a metric to consider seriously, i.e., improvement. I'd say the same about Locker. Not much improvement. I think its a red flag. Not dispositive, but a metric.

ckparrothead
04-10-2011, 09:52 PM
This is something I have been thinking about as well. I saw Henne play alot his freshman year at UM and I thought for sure that he would be a top 10 pick eventually. And he just hasn't really changed since then. Every kid is different, but this may be a metric to consider seriously, i.e., improvement. I'd say the same about Locker. Not much improvement. I think its a red flag. Not dispositive, but a metric.

Improvement is certainly something I pay attention to. You have to balance it against experience. Experience is good, and having a wealth of experience gives you a lot of things to draw on at the next level. But at the same time, sometimes it's also good to show that you're the type of guy that learns and improves quickly.

Jimmy Graham and Sean Smith are examples of that. Smith only moved from WR to CB halfway thru college, and was starting in the NFL in only his 3rd year on the defensive side of the ball. Jimmy Graham hadn't played football, he came to it his final year at Miami and by halfway into his 2nd year in the sport period, he was taking a starter's share for the New Orleans Saints. Now, he's only in his 3rd year of football, and the Saints have jettisoned Jeremy Shockey and will be starting Graham.

You find stories like these sometimes, when a guy has the natural aptitude for the game he can train on a little more quickly than people imagine. I think it's extraordinary the amount of improvement I saw out of both Cam Newton and Brandon Weeden from the first half of the season to the second half, both were really wet behind the ears and first year starters but they both had dramatic learning curves. Andrew Luck was like that too as a redshirt freshman.

One thing that bothers me a little about Colin Kaepernick, and bothers me a lot about Jake Locker, is both guys are four year starters and the guy we see today isn't that much better than the guy we saw four years ago. In Kaepernick's case that's in part because he was a tremendous player as a freshman, but still. Never worked on his mechanics, never cleaned up his footwork much, still doesn't read the field very quickly, still the same production (except with a better surrounding cast).

On the other hand you look at guys like T.J. Yates and Ricky Stanzi, they may be long term starters, but one thing you can say for sure about them is that they showed improvement over the course of their college careers. With Stanzi, I can't be sure that was really improvement coming directly from him or if it was part luck and part improvements around him. But with Yates, I can be sure that was improvement in his game. Ryan Mallett has shown a nice steep track of improvement from that first year at Michigan to his redshirt sophomore year to his redshirt junior year. If there's anything that digs at me about Christian Ponder it's that I didn't see QUITE the improvement from junior to senior year that I thought I would...but then, there were some extenuating circumstances. And let's keep in mind, he is today a LOT better than he was as a sophomore.

Some guys that kind of remind me of the Jimmy Graham/Sean Smith thing are Julius Thomas of Portland State, Edmond Gates of Abilene Christian and Kealoha Pilares of Hawaii.

Mr. Magoo
04-10-2011, 10:29 PM
But that's something that actually bothers me about both Stanzi and Yates... that in Stanzi's case it took him until his third year starting to have a good season, while in Yates' case it took until his fourth year.

That slow of a learning curve is sort of disturbing to me, just as it was disturbing when I looked at Jimmy Clausen (especially since he was being talked about as a 1st round pick).

Say what you will about Henne's stats leveling off, but his stats as a freshman were about as good as either Stanzi's or Yates' stats as seniors. I always attributed this whole discussion about Henne not improving to the fact that the talent around him decreased every year he was in Ann Arbor (going from three NFL quality receivers to one, among other things). I still think that's true to a degree, but it hasn't quite worked out the way I thought it would. :(

ckparrothead
04-11-2011, 12:01 AM
I'm not bothered by those progressions. Tom Brady was the same way.

BlueFin
04-11-2011, 01:18 AM
I would point out that Kaepernick did go from being a 54% completetion percentage passer to a 65% by his senior year. But I do get the points your making.

Perhaps he did not make certain changes in his game due to poor coaching or lack thereof?

Mr. Magoo
04-11-2011, 03:39 AM
I'm not bothered by those progressions. Tom Brady was the same way.

No he wasn't. Brady was never a full time starter (even though, with 350 or so attempts, he might as well been) and only had significant playing time for two years. His first year was mediocre and his second one pretty good (20 to 6 TD/INT ratio).

That's pretty different from taking three or four years of starting to get your legs under you, as the case with Yates and Stanzi.

ckparrothead
04-11-2011, 10:22 AM
I would point out that Kaepernick did go from being a 54% completetion percentage passer to a 65% by his senior year. But I do get the points your making.

Perhaps he did not make certain changes in his game due to poor coaching or lack thereof?

I don't think of Chris Ault as a poor coach, and Jeff Rowe may not have had the talent that Colin did but he didn't come out with nearly as many mechanical quirks in his game.

ckparrothead
04-11-2011, 10:25 AM
No he wasn't. Brady was never a full time starter (even though, with 350 or so attempts, he might as well been) and only had significant playing time for two years. His first year was mediocre and his second one pretty good (20 to 6 TD/INT ratio).

That's pretty different from taking three or four years of starting to get your legs under you, as the case with Yates and Stanzi.

I don't agree. His third year in college he was mediocre and his final year he took a step up. Pretty simple. Stanzi isn't a four year starter. He got in the game in 2008, was mediocre his third year in college and took a step up as a senior.

BlueFin
04-11-2011, 11:50 AM
I don't think of Chris Ault as a poor coach, and Jeff Rowe may not have had the talent that Colin did but he didn't come out with nearly as many mechanical quirks in his game.

Ok, I'll take your word for that, but is it at least possible they decided not to tinker with his mechanics because it was adequate at the college level, and perhaps it better served their purposes to leave him alone?