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Slim
08-04-2011, 02:12 PM
Jesus the markets are taking a pounding today.

Almost every major index is down dramatically today. Between the US Economy, Greece debt crisis and the rest of the world on the brink of self destruction I'm losing a fortune these days (if i sell of course).

Should have bought gold & other precious metals.

Tunaphish429
08-04-2011, 02:19 PM
Yea I have lost quite a bit of money in my 401 K...

CedarPhin
08-04-2011, 02:44 PM
This is in-****ing-sane.

The US actually is better of than most global markets, especially in Europe. The Dollar is surging against the Euro and Yen right now, and oil's coming down, so that's a good sign.

ROADRUNNER
08-04-2011, 02:51 PM
Scotland for ever..............:lol:

Slim
08-04-2011, 03:06 PM
Scotland for ever..............:lol:

Roadrunner where in Scotland are you from? And more importantly are you a Rangers fan?

Vaark
08-04-2011, 03:20 PM
heh, yeah the financial indices and futures are tanking. This has been one of my nicer, and easier days - shorting the NASDAQ emini off pullbacks all day. From my perspective, I don't care whether the market goes up or down, so long as it's clearly directional, doesn't chop and fires off the confirmations I'm looking for.. But from from a macro view.. I think we're friggin doomed (I would have said "fcuking" but some tool red repped me for that "since children read the board). Of course treasury bond futures are up very nicely at almost a 45 degree angle.



http://www.finheaven.com/images/imported/2011/08/2ccumbn-1.jpg

Slim
08-04-2011, 03:45 PM
Vaark i know you've explained this in the past but what is it exactly that you do?

Vaark
08-04-2011, 03:51 PM
Vaark i know you've explained this in the past but what is it exactly that you do?

Intraday trading (mostly financial future indices) based on technical algorithmic indicators (signals).... (called technical analysis).

here's a good relatively brief overview (http://www.investopedia.com/university/technical/)

Slim
08-04-2011, 04:02 PM
That's really interesting... So you basically looks for patterns and trends to predict future activity. How do you account for an outlier? I've been reading a lot about this company called Sino Forest that lost 80% of its value in 1 day after an analyst made accusations of fraudulent activities.

How would you account for something like that? Or does it not matter because you're looking at the markets with a much more Macro view?

Vaark
08-04-2011, 04:23 PM
That's really interesting... So you basically looks for patterns and trends to predict future activity. How do you account for an outlier? I've been reading a lot about this company called Sino Forest that lost 80% of its value in 1 day after an analyst made accusations of fraudulent activities.

How would you account for something like that? Or does it not matter because you're looking at the markets with a much more Macro view?

you can't.. the market is unpredictable.. your example is why i neither trade stocks nor hold them over night since there is so many intra company and economic variables that can either goose or deflate it. If you trade indexes, you're trading the the sum total of many leading companies so if a president resigns or gets indicted for fraud, it doesn't necessarily skew the price too out of whack.

The market is driven by 2 underlying principles, fear and greed and once you understand that, you have a bit more of an insight. You cannot predict which way it will go, but can draw some reasonable probabilities based on what that particular symbol has done in the past when certain events (in my case technical, like bouncing off a 50 day moving avg, e.g.) and then you practice prudent money management understanding that you can have a 50% batting avg but if you cut your losses appropriately and let your runners run, you are way ahead of the game. I'm oversimplifying things here so I'm doing it a disservice. Of course you have to keep an eye on the overall market direction, its volatility and on different time frames to get the whole picture since individual securities don't operate in a vacuum and it's always difficult to swim upstream.

If you're interested in the concept, here's a book that's a bit outdated since its been around about 15yrs.. (http://www.amazon.com/Stan-Weinsteins-Secrets-Profiting-Markets/dp/1556236832)Stan is from Ft Lauderdale and for all I know could even be a FH member :idk: While some of it is no longer relevent, the actual simple overview provided to gain a perspective into basiic technical analysis is very valid.. good first read (as a matter of fact I got it for my dentist about 4 years ago).

As far as touts go, there's a whole industry of traders who fade (short) Cramer's picks - since they usually resonate with the retail investors who are last to get onboard, inflate the stock and then between the fundamental metrics and the technical aspects, it starts to sink back to its natural level where it should be. If you have an interest in this or the fundamental measurements I'd recommend the FH counterpart elitetrader dot com as a site you might find interesting. As far as fraud is concerned it's always a possibility.. I know someone who actually subscribes to all the "recommendation" newsletters which essentially are paid PR for pumps and dumps.. and he'll ride the pump, these are mostly penny stocks for a few days and then short the dump when the pumpers get the price high enough to sell off millions of shares.. he merely tags along. In reality this isn't much different than a trend trader such as myself in a market made by hedgefunds, and other investment firm automated trading strategies. I 'll look for a profit taking pullback/retracement in a confirmed trend and based on the signals i use, including Fibonacci retracements, I'll jump on board. It's a lot of fun on days like today but honestly there are also days where you want to put your head in an oven. ..can make you even more schizzoid than rooting for the fins.:chuckle:

Bumpus
08-04-2011, 07:00 PM
I was really hoping that this would be a thread about a stripper named "Global Markets"

I am disappoint.

Vaark
08-04-2011, 08:37 PM
I was really hoping that this would be a thread about a stripper named "Global Markets"

I am disappoint.

Sorry you didn't get what you were after.. but here, hopefully World BFree will more than make it up by titillating your prurient interests.

http://www.finheaven.com/images/imported/2011/08/realhousewivesofatlantastripper525x366-1.jpg

Arsenal WV
08-04-2011, 08:42 PM
Roadrunner where in Scotland are you from? And more importantly are you a Rangers fan?

I already asked him if he was a Rangers or Celtic fan. He said neither :lol:

Bumpus
08-04-2011, 08:58 PM
Sorry you didn't get what you were after.. but here, hopefully World BFree will more than make it up by titillating your prurient interests.

http://www.finheaven.com/images/imported/2011/08/realhousewivesofatlantastripper525x366-1.jpg

:chuckle: Perhaps I should've been more specific ...

WeVie
08-04-2011, 09:28 PM
you can't.. the market is unpredictable.. your example is why i neither trade stocks nor hold them over night since there is so many intra company and economic variables that can either goose or deflate it. If you trade indexes, you're trading the the sum total of many leading companies so if a president resigns or gets indicted for fraud, it doesn't necessarily skew the price too out of whack.

The market is driven by 2 underlying principles, fear and greed and once you understand that, you have a bit more of an insight. You cannot predict which way it will go, but can draw some reasonable probabilities based on what that particular symbol has done in the past when certain events (in my case technical, like bouncing off a 50 day moving avg, e.g.) and then you practice prudent money management understanding that you can have a 50% batting avg but if you cut your losses appropriately and let your runners run, you are way ahead of the game. I'm oversimplifying things here so I'm doing it a disservice. Of course you have to keep an eye on the overall market direction, its volatility and on different time frames to get the whole picture since individual securities don't operate in a vacuum and it's always difficult to swim upstream.

If you're interested in the concept, here's a book that's a bit outdated since its been around about 15yrs.. (http://www.amazon.com/Stan-Weinsteins-Secrets-Profiting-Markets/dp/1556236832)Stan is from Ft Lauderdale and for all I know could even be a FH member :idk: While some of it is no longer relevent, the actual simple overview provided to gain a perspective into basiic technical analysis is very valid.. good first read (as a matter of fact I got it for my dentist about 4 years ago).

As far as touts go, there's a whole industry of traders who fade (short) Cramer's picks - since they usually resonate with the retail investors who are last to get onboard, inflate the stock and then between the fundamental metrics and the technical aspects, it starts to sink back to its natural level where it should be. If you have an interest in this or the fundamental measurements I'd recommend the FH counterpart elitetrader dot com as a site you might find interesting. As far as fraud is concerned it's always a possibility.. I know someone who actually subscribes to all the "recommendation" newsletters which essentially are paid PR for pumps and dumps.. and he'll ride the pump, these are mostly penny stocks for a few days and then short the dump when the pumpers get the price high enough to sell off millions of shares.. he merely tags along. In reality this isn't much different than a trend trader such as myself in a market made by hedgefunds, and other investment firm automated trading strategies. I 'll look for a profit taking pullback/retracement in a confirmed trend and based on the signals i use, including Fibonacci retracements, I'll jump on board. It's a lot of fun on days like today but honestly there are also days where you want to put your head in an oven. ..can make you even more schizzoid than rooting for the fins.:chuckle:



I know you know what you are talking about and what you say seems extremely interesting, but I kinda got lost in the second paragraph. :bobdole: I really need to squeeze in a few more business or economic classes while I am in college.

BTW, do you ever get tired of blue tag?

Vaark
08-04-2011, 11:31 PM
I know you know what you are talking about and what you say seems extremely interesting, but I kinda got lost in the second paragraph. :bobdole: I really need to squeeze in a few more business or economic classes while I am in college.

BTW, do you ever get tired of blue tag?

Y do u ask? Are you getting tired of black and considering filing an application for Blue Man Group membership?

WeVie
08-05-2011, 03:27 AM
Y do u ask? Are you getting tired of black and considering filing an application for Blue Man Group membership?

Thinking about it. Black is pouring.

Vaark
08-05-2011, 08:57 AM
Possible Financial Armageddon @ 10AM this morning - unless pessimism was already factored into yesterday's devaluation :idk: (market already tanking overseas)


[Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Futures point to more losses. U.S. stock futures fell in European trading, signalling further losses following yesterday's carnage. Asian and European shares also dropped across the board as multiple worries combined, particularly the weak U.S. economy and the EU's sovereign-debt vortex. The latter continued to spiral, with Italian and Spanish debt yields increasing again and the ECB flittering on the edges by confining its bond buying to Portuguese and Irish debt. France's Nicolas Sarkozy is due to discuss the crisis with Germany's Angela Merkel and Spain's Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero amid calls for EU leaders to gain a grip.

Investors await employment figures. A key moment for gauging today's market direction will come with U.S. employment figures this morning. Economists estimate that nonfarm payrolls climbed by 85,000 in July following a measly 18,000 increase in June, which was way below expectations. The July unemployment rate is expected to have stayed at 9.2%. Trader Manoj Ladwa said the market seems to have factored in weak employment numbers, so shares "could recover some losses later in the session."

Slim
08-05-2011, 09:09 AM
117K jobs added in the US in July... woo hoo! Finally some good news.

Vaark
08-05-2011, 10:00 AM
117K jobs added in the US in July... woo hoo! Finally some good news.

if you want to follow something interesting (i have this streaming all day)
http://stocktwits.com/streams/all

ROADRUNNER
08-05-2011, 12:01 PM
Roadrunner where in Scotland are you from? And more importantly are you a Rangers fan?

Im from Aberdeen, im a Arsenal fan............

Arsenal WV
08-05-2011, 08:35 PM
Im from Aberdeen, im a Arsenal fan............

I knew I liked you for some reason.

CedarPhin
08-08-2011, 02:44 PM
We're taking it up the *** today.

Market's down 600 points, BoA stock is down 20%, CitiGroup -18%.

Wow.

Bumpus
08-08-2011, 03:14 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e3QRTToTLzI

Vaark
08-08-2011, 03:32 PM
We're taking it up the *** today.

Market's down 600 points, BoA stock is down 20%, CitiGroup -18%.

Wow.

Better reserve your apple selling street corner. Hopefully there's a floor where large block value long investors start snatching up bargains. I'm on the Nasdaq down elevator again today and it's been quite good for me since it's so predictable but not very encouraging at all for the economy.. You'll see some stocks spurting up, but chances are these retracements will turn out to be artificial and illusory...as the shorts start booking their profits by covering..

CedarPhin
08-08-2011, 03:37 PM
How much further do you see this tumbling?

Vaark
08-08-2011, 04:30 PM
How much further do you see this tumbling?

I dunno... trying to figure this out is way beyond me and my limited intelligence... . Even in a down economy the market is really a random walk. However right now fear, not greed is the basic contagious emotion driving it. Me, I try to gauge the ongoing sentiment short term, the volatility and a few other criteria and then mostly just react to what my signals are suggesting with some expectations that price may head in a certain direction but no predetermination. I will bet that the short ratio has risen substantially though as well as the Put to Call ratio. Some of the newsletters I subscribe to do see some significant support levels looming shortly for the S&P to test, and if price plummets right through those "safety nets" where prices should at least hold, then in general it ain't good.

CedarPhin
08-08-2011, 06:49 PM
The one thing that I do like from all of this is the fact that crude prices are taking it pretty hard too, and as a result, I won't be paying $4.00 a gallon for gasoline for the forseeable future.

I think the Euros are worse off than we are at this juncture anyway. I think the Eurozone is leveraged at something like 3x as much as we are right now in the financial system. Apparently, with another bailout, France and Germany are going to end up losing their own AAA credit ratings.

Going to be a bumpy ride I think.

Vaark
08-09-2011, 08:14 AM
Setting the stage for today's market session. The FOMC 14:15 announcement could well prove impactful :idk:
Seeking Alpha
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
8/9/11

Market direction uncertain as futures oscillate. U.S. stock futures are up but have today oscillated between positive and negative, causing uncertainty as to what shares will do following yesterday's free fall. However, if Europe is anything to go by, stocks are set to continue their declines over the session. After hitting positive territory in some cases early on, EU stocks were firmly in the red in midday trading. Asian shares had a relatively mixed time, with Hong Kong closing -5.7%, but Japan finishing just -1.7% and China ending flat.

Safe havens mixed. With European shares falling, gold and the Swiss franc have continued to play their roles as safe havens. Gold rose to yet another fresh high of $1,778.30 an ounce, putting it in line for its biggest three-day rally since late 2008 at the depth of the financial crisis. The Swiss franc also hit further records, reaching 1.0475 to the euro and 0.7359 to the dollar. However, the price of Treasurys, which attracted such a stampede yesterday despite the S&P downgrade, eased off and yields rose.

S&P just added to the bad news. It may have been the catalyst for yesterday's global stock rout, but the S&P downgrade just added to the relentless stream of bad news, from EU debt to U.S. growth. The DJIA sank 5.55% for its biggest percentage drop since December 2008 and its sixth-largest point decline ever. The Nasdaq closed -6.9% and S&P 500-6.63%, and every stock on the index ended lower. Financials were slaughtered, with Bank of America (BAC) -20%.

Eyes of the world on the Fed. The FOMC is due to meet today amid calls for the Fed to take action over slowing growth, especially after yesterday's stock plunge. However, with interest rates at zero to 0.25% for nearly three years and $2.3T of bond buying not spurring growth, there doesn't appear to be a huge amount the Fed can do. One option would be to replace shorter-term securities with longer maturities to reduce rates on longer-term debt. And if the Fed is considering QE3, it's not expected to announce it today.

Senate panel probing S&P ratings cut. The Democrat-led Senate Banking Committee has reportedly started collecting information on S&P's decision to downgrade the U.S., although no decision will be made on whether the panel will hold hearings. The panel's chairman, Tim Johnson, has already called S&P's move "irresponsible." Separately, Jay Carney said he's not aware of any administration conversations to impose tougher regulation on the ratings agencies.

China inflation growth poses dilemma for central bank. China inflation rose 6.5% in July, beating forecasts and hitting its highest level in three years. The jump was once again largely fueled by soaring food prices and puts the People's Bank of China in a dilemma, as its steady tightening over the past few months has slowed production but not kept CPI in check. The high inflation shows China is still dealing with the after-effects of huge monetary expansion during the financial crisis and may have little room for further stimulus.

WeVie
08-09-2011, 09:33 AM
Setting the stage for today's market session. The FOMC 14:15 announcement could well prove impactful :idk:
Seeking Alpha
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
8/9/11

Market direction uncertain as futures oscillate. U.S. stock futures are up but have today oscillated between positive and negative, causing uncertainty as to what shares will do following yesterday's free fall. However, if Europe is anything to go by, stocks are set to continue their declines over the session. After hitting positive territory in some cases early on, EU stocks were firmly in the red in midday trading. Asian shares had a relatively mixed time, with Hong Kong closing -5.7%, but Japan finishing just -1.7% and China ending flat.

Safe havens mixed. With European shares falling, gold and the Swiss franc have continued to play their roles as safe havens. Gold rose to yet another fresh high of $1,778.30 an ounce, putting it in line for its biggest three-day rally since late 2008 at the depth of the financial crisis. The Swiss franc also hit further records, reaching 1.0475 to the euro and 0.7359 to the dollar. However, the price of Treasurys, which attracted such a stampede yesterday despite the S&P downgrade, eased off and yields rose.

S&P just added to the bad news. It may have been the catalyst for yesterday's global stock rout, but the S&P downgrade just added to the relentless stream of bad news, from EU debt to U.S. growth. The DJIA sank 5.55% for its biggest percentage drop since December 2008 and its sixth-largest point decline ever. The Nasdaq closed -6.9% and S&P 500-6.63%, and every stock on the index ended lower. Financials were slaughtered, with Bank of America (BAC) -20%.

Eyes of the world on the Fed. The FOMC is due to meet today amid calls for the Fed to take action over slowing growth, especially after yesterday's stock plunge. However, with interest rates at zero to 0.25% for nearly three years and $2.3T of bond buying not spurring growth, there doesn't appear to be a huge amount the Fed can do. One option would be to replace shorter-term securities with longer maturities to reduce rates on longer-term debt. And if the Fed is considering QE3, it's not expected to announce it today.

Senate panel probing S&P ratings cut. The Democrat-led Senate Banking Committee has reportedly started collecting information on S&P's decision to downgrade the U.S., although no decision will be made on whether the panel will hold hearings. The panel's chairman, Tim Johnson, has already called S&P's move "irresponsible." Separately, Jay Carney said he's not aware of any administration conversations to impose tougher regulation on the ratings agencies.

China inflation growth poses dilemma for central bank. China inflation rose 6.5% in July, beating forecasts and hitting its highest level in three years. The jump was once again largely fueled by soaring food prices and puts the People's Bank of China in a dilemma, as its steady tightening over the past few months has slowed production but not kept CPI in check. The high inflation shows China is still dealing with the after-effects of huge monetary expansion during the financial crisis and may have little room for further stimulus.



So basically the whole world of fuc*ed?