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View Full Version : An indepth analysis of robert griffin iii



fisi
12-13-2011, 07:07 PM
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/979087-robert-griffin-iii-2012-nfl-draft-scouting-report

SkapePhin
12-13-2011, 07:35 PM
Great post. I really wanted to see Griffin in aqua and orange.

zach attach
12-13-2011, 07:45 PM
Thats a detailed breakdown, very nice.
My main question is this. How is he different than Pat White? Both are not beefy, or built. Kinda stringy. Both run fast, and throw good, a dual threat. White got knocked into next week by Pittsburgh. How does rg3 withstand that?

OnslaughtXX6
12-13-2011, 07:48 PM
I think he's gonna end up running faster than a 4.49.

MiamiDolfan85
12-13-2011, 07:51 PM
I would love to see Chud with RGIII.....if he could do that with Newton, Griffin would really be something to watch

SkapePhin
12-13-2011, 07:53 PM
Thats a detailed breakdown, very nice.
My main question is this. How is he different than Pat White? Both are not beefy, or built. Kinda stringy. Both run fast, and throw good, a dual threat. White got knocked into next week by Pittsburgh. How does rg3 withstand that?

Pat White: 6'0 ft (on a good day), 190 lbs
RGIII: 6'2 ft, 220 lbs

RGIII has much more to work with than Pat White. In the NFL, he will undoubtedly beef up.

thefranchisedef
12-13-2011, 08:10 PM
I would love to see Chud with RGIII.....if he could do that with Newton, Griffin would really be something to watch

mike shula not chud... get your qb coach right ;)

rev kev
12-13-2011, 08:23 PM
I like Barkley and RG3

DudeleBroski
12-13-2011, 08:49 PM
I would love to see Chud with RGIII.....if he could do that with Newton, Griffin would really be something to watch You say that as if rg3 is a better prospect than cam was

Casas9425
12-13-2011, 08:56 PM
the only thing that has me worried is the field vision. He seems to only see half the field and that's a recipe for turnovers.

PSU Cane
12-13-2011, 11:45 PM
I'm waiting for CK to dismantle that evaluation from Bleacher Report.

AZStryker
12-13-2011, 11:54 PM
Pat White: 6'0 ft (on a good day), 190 lbs
RGIII: 6'2 ft, 220 lbs

RGIII has much more to work with than Pat White. In the NFL, he will undoubtedly beef up.

There is no way that Griffin is 220. I'd wager 200, maybe 205.

datruth55
12-14-2011, 11:11 AM
Just watching the first clip the first thing that came to my mind was why did he leave the pocket? All he had to do is step up, could he not see over the lineman? I have my doubt whether this guy could run an offense from under center.

daniel3
12-14-2011, 12:47 PM
Just watching the first clip the first thing that came to my mind was why did he leave the pocket? All he had to do is step up, could he not see over the lineman? I have my doubt whether this guy could run an offense from under center. He repositioned himself because there were 3 defenders between him and the receiver ;/. Thought you would be happy that he even spotted the receiver all the way in the in-zone, defenders probably thought they had him covered until Griffin did that. That's pretty decent vision, though a top pass rusher prob could had reached out and tripped him up at the angle he took to break to a better throwing point (he ran ridiculously close to that rusher).

datruth55
12-14-2011, 01:08 PM
He repositioned himself because there were 3 defenders between him and the receiver ;/. Thought you would be happy that he even spotted the receiver all the way in the in-zone, defenders probably thought they had him covered until Griffin did that. That's pretty decent vision, though a top pass rusher prob could had reached out and tripped him up at the angle he took to break to a better throwing point (he ran ridiculously close to that rusher).
Thought he had a clean pocket...all he had to do was step up into it. The RT was pushing the DE passed him when RGIII decided to run backwards and passes the DE. Kendall Wright made a nice play there by the way and he got rocked against the wall. Wright looked like he was hurt.

Edit: Well I just looked at it again the the RT held the DE by the jersey near the shoulder...that explained how he didn't make the play, lol.

normaldude
12-14-2011, 02:31 PM
Has a strong armed QB, with a 6-1 TD-INT ratio, ever failed in the NFL?

Serious question.

ckparrothead
12-14-2011, 02:38 PM
I think datruth55 is SPOT ON with his questioning of that first video clip.

Robert Griffin had a pocket to work with on that throw. All he needed to do was stare the play side safety the way he wanted with his eyes, step up and throw the deep vertical to his receiver.

He didn't have three defenders blocking his passing lane. He had a perfect triangle read where either the inside post route was going to come wide open, or the 9 route was going to come wide open. Instead of sticking with the play, he executed the scramble drill and got lucky that the safety that bit on the inside post stopped reading the quarterback, and that the cover two corner didn't have the speed to recover backward and plaster his receiver.

This is a prime example of the kind of thing he got away with in the pros that I don't know that he'll get away with in the NFL. It's also a prime example of how he doesn't trust the pocket, doesn't see the field from the pocket, and likes to escape where he can get clearer vision and manipulate defenders with his legs rather than manipulate defenders with a true passer's tools.

daniel3
12-14-2011, 02:59 PM
I think datruth55 is SPOT ON with his questioning of that first video clip.

Robert Griffin had a pocket to work with on that throw. All he needed to do was stare the play side safety the way he wanted with his eyes, step up and throw the deep vertical to his receiver.

He didn't have three defenders blocking his passing lane. He had a perfect triangle read where either the inside post route was going to come wide open, or the 9 route was going to come wide open. Instead of sticking with the play, he executed the scramble drill and got lucky that the safety that bit on the inside post stopped reading the quarterback, and that the cover two corner didn't have the speed to recover backward and plaster his receiver.

This is a prime example of the kind of thing he got away with in the pros that I don't know that he'll get away with in the NFL. It's also a prime example of how he doesn't trust the pocket, doesn't see the field from the pocket, and likes to escape where he can get clearer vision and manipulate defenders with his legs rather than manipulate defenders with a true passer's tools.

http://www.finheaven.com/images/imported/2011/12/rg3isntblind-1.png

Is that really what he should be stepping up in the pocket and throwing across from? Probably your best argument is he should have tried to hit that receiver running across the middle rather than going for the home run or dump it off to the guy right there.

datruth55
12-14-2011, 03:05 PM
Has a strong armed QB, with a 6-1 TD-INT ratio, ever failed in the NFL?

Serious question.

Well the jury is still out on Kevin Kolb (also coached by Art Briles) who had 30 TDs and 4 INTs his senior year.

Graham Harrell hasn't amounted to much in the NFL. He had 45 TDs and 9 INTs his senior year (that's only 5-to-1 but it's close).

I don't think Chase Clement from Rice was ever drafted he had 44 TDs and 7 INTs his senior year.

I don't know what Kellen Moore will do in the pros but in the last 3 years Moore has thrown 115 TDs and only 16 INTs (that's better than 7-to-1).

datruth55
12-14-2011, 03:09 PM
http://www.finheaven.com/images/imported/2011/12/rg3isntblind-1.png

Is that really what he should be stepping up in the pocket and throwing across from? Probably your best argument is he should have tried to hit that receiver running across the middle rather than going for the home run or dump it off to the guy right there.

He's got to trust the pocket. Like I said the RT was pushing the DE passed him if he had stepped up, the Center had leverage on the DT, he could have easily stepped up to where the RB is and you can also see from this Kendall Wright (#2 on the right) already had his man beat streaking down the sideline.

hooshoops
12-14-2011, 03:17 PM
He's got to trust the pocket. Like I said the RT was pushing the DE passed him if he had stepped up, the Center had leverage on the DT, he could have easily stepped up to where the RB is and you can also see from this Kendall Wright (#2 on the right) already had his man beat streaking down the sideline.

yep step up and as soon as you see what looks like the safety turn to cross with the crossing wr from that side let fly to kendall wright who's wide open on the streak...that looks like a very easy read to me...if the safety bites on the cross throw the vertical especially when you see how much wright had won on the outside

there's no reason to bail there...

daniel3
12-14-2011, 03:32 PM
He's got to trust the pocket. Like I said the RT was pushing the DE passed him if he had stepped up, the Center had leverage on the DT, he could have easily stepped up to where the RB is and you can also see from this Kendall Wright (#2 on the right) already had his man beat streaking down the sideline. I'll agree with the second part, looking at it again he could have gone down that route, but I still understand his reasoning. Then again it all depended on that back safety biting on the crossing wr, which he did for a bit instead of letting the help he had get him. Had he not it would have been much different. Though his mistrust of the pocket has nothing to do with his sight, but more likely that he doesn't trust the protection.

TedSlimmJr
12-14-2011, 03:33 PM
http://www.finheaven.com/images/imported/2011/12/rg3isntblind-1.png

Is that really what he should be stepping up in the pocket and throwing across from? Probably your best argument is he should have tried to hit that receiver running across the middle rather than going for the home run or dump it off to the guy right there.


He needs to climb the pocket towards the LOS and then move laterally left or right.... if you trace his steps, it should form a "T" from the depth of his drop.

He'll learn that when he has to start taking snaps from under center. It may take a while. It's not a point of emphasis from a coaching standpoint if your taking 100% of your snaps from the shotgun.

You take away half the field when you bail early, or bail from a perfectly fine pocket. See Blaine Gabbert.

hooshoops
12-14-2011, 03:47 PM
He needs to climb the pocket towards the LOS and then move laterally left or right.... if you trace his steps, it should form a "T" from the depth of his drop.

He'll learn that when he has to start taking snaps from under center. It may take a while. It's not a point of emphasis from a coaching standpoint if your taking 100% of your snaps from the shotgun.

You take away half the field when you bail early, or bail from a perfectly fine pocket. See Blaine Gabbert.

that play to me looks like a blown coverage on the safetys part...he's got help underneath on the crossing route from 3 different guys he's got to maintain depth on the deep vertical sideline route and also in case that crossing route would have been a deep post into the center of the field...instead he jumps the cross and leaves his cb on the outside beaten like a drum hung out to dry...had rg3 stayed in and delivered thats easy money...

thats the way i'm seeing it at least

ckparrothead
12-14-2011, 04:03 PM
Everyone reads it differently I suppose. I see a perfect opportunity to step up into the pocket, continue with your triangle read, and when the safety declares himself, hit the right guy with good timing and accuracy.

I don't personally see a busted coverage from the safety. Safety could have waited a split second longer to commit himself, but given the coverage alignment that inside post was a threat. It would have taken a pretty good throw from the pocket to hit the 9 route in the end zone...the kind of throw you need to be prepared to make if you're an NFL quarterback.

To me, if anyone screwed up it's probably the left corner back for peeking into the backfield too much. You have to know the responsibilities of everyone on the defense. On this particular play they have a spy assigned to Robert Griffin playing form a Mike position. It's his job to keep a lid on RG3's running. There's also an underneath zone cover guy who passed the inside post receiver to the safety. He's in much better position to chase down RG3 if he busts contain. There's no need for the left corner to be so obsessed with what's going on with RG3 in the backfield. He's got to stay in a position where he can plaster the perimeter 9 route to his side that ended up catching the touchdown.

hooshoops
12-14-2011, 04:12 PM
Everyone reads it differently I suppose. I see a perfect opportunity to step up into the pocket, continue with your triangle read, and when the safety declares himself, hit the right guy with good timing and accuracy.

I don't personally see a busted coverage from the safety. Safety could have waited a split second longer to commit himself, but given the coverage alignment that inside post was a threat. It would have taken a pretty good throw from the pocket to hit the 9 route in the end zone...the kind of throw you need to be prepared to make if you're an NFL quarterback.

To me, if anyone screwed up it's probably the left corner back for peeking into the backfield too much. You have to know the responsibilities of everyone on the defense. On this particular play they have a spy assigned to Robert Griffin playing form a Mike position. It's his job to keep a lid on RG3's running. There's also an underneath zone cover guy who passed the inside post receiver to the safety. He's in much better position to chase down RG3 if he busts contain. There's no need for the left corner to be so obsessed with what's going on with RG3 in the backfield. He's got to stay in a position where he can plaster the perimeter 9 route to his side that ended up catching the touchdown.

yeah i can see what you're seeing also but to me if thats a post route that safety is beaten already by being that far up and flat...thats a bad angle imo to be in to try and defend a post...your gonna be trailing on the outside pretty much being that flat and thats exactly what you want on the play...the wr to win to the inside on the safety... to me if its a post griffens got a 2 way go there...and i definitely think that if you want to play qb in the pros ypu need to be able to hit that sideline vertical...unleash a rope out in front and its paydirt

TedSlimmJr
12-14-2011, 04:17 PM
that play to me looks like a blown coverage on the safetys part...he's got help underneath on the crossing route from 3 different guys he's got to maintain depth on the deep vertical sideline route and also in case that crossing route would have been a deep post into the center of the field...instead he jumps the cross and leaves his cb on the outside beaten like a drum hung out to dry...had rg3 stayed in and delivered thats easy money...

thats the way i'm seeing it at least


What I'm talking about has nothing to do with the coverage, it has to do with how a quarterback manipulates the pocket in order to be in position to continue with his progressions.

Griffin reads the safety and the opposite hash in Art Briles system. The safety on the opposite hash is in perfect position. He's right where he's supposed to be.

The linebacker has passed off the receiver to the safety once he exits his zone. The safety has to defend the hash first. The seams are where the defense is vulnerable.

The CB covering Wright shouldn't be playing outside leverage if he's expecting no help on the inside. Wrong technique and letting Wright get position on him is where it all went wrong to begin with... no matter what Griffin chose to do.

hooshoops
12-14-2011, 04:24 PM
What I'm talking about has nothing to do with the coverage, it has to do with how a quarterback manipulates the pocket in order to be in position to continue with his progressions.

Griffin reads the safety and the opposite hash in Art Briles system. The safety on the opposite hash is in perfect position. He's right where he's supposed to be.

The linebacker has passed off the receiver to the safety once he exits his zone. The safety has to defend the hash first. The seams are where the defense is vulnerable.

The CB covering Wright shouldn't be playing outside leverage if he's expecting no help on the inside. Wrong technique and letting Wright get position on him is where it all went wrong to begin with... no matter what Griffin chose to do.

ok i understand that...but isn't it possible the cb is playing outside leverage cause he expects the safety on that side of the field to maintain depth on anything vertical or a post into the deep middle???

you can see what looks like a lb in all out sprint coming from the opposite side trying to get depth in the middle of the field...to me that safety should maintain depth

TedSlimmJr
12-14-2011, 04:57 PM
ok i understand that...but isn't it possible the cb is playing outside leverage cause he expects the safety on that side of the field to maintain depth on anything vertical or a post into the deep middle???

you can see what looks like a lb in all out sprint coming from the opposite side trying to get depth in the middle of the field...to me that safety should maintain depth


The linebacker is turning and running to defend the deep middle of the field right between the hashmarks. It's a Cover-3.

The weakness of a Cover-3 is 4 verticals... that's how you attack it. It's a Run-and-Shoot concept.

It stresses the seams of a defense, which is where it's most vulnerable. It forces the safeties to commit, and they have to defend the hash mark first.

Art Briles has been running this offense for decades. His quarterbacks aren't putting up all those numbers because of blown coverages. He knows how to attack defenses.

They're easy reads for the quarterback. I've seen it in high school football for decades.

Griffin reads the safety to the opposite hash first and watches for rotation. There was no rotation here by the safeties, therefore he knew the safety to Wright's side had to commit to the hash mark first and foremost. Briles has drilled this into Griffin all along.

hooshoops
12-14-2011, 05:11 PM
The linebacker is turning and running to defend the deep middle of the field right between the hashmarks. It's a Cover-3.

The weakness of a Cover-3 is 4 verticals... that's how you attack it. It's a Run-and-Shoot concept.

It stresses the seams of a defense, which is where it's most vulnerable. It forces the safeties to commit, and they have to defend the hash mark first.

Art Briles has been running this offense for decades. His quarterbacks aren't putting up all those numbers because of blown coverages. He knows how to attack defenses.

They're easy reads for the quarterback. I've seen it in high school football for decades.

Griffin reads the safety to the opposite hash first and watches for rotation. There was no rotation here by the safeties, therefore he knew the safety to Wright's side had to commit to the hash mark first and foremost. Briles has drilled this into Griffin all along.

ahh...ok...i got ya...thanks for the explanation

normaldude
12-14-2011, 05:13 PM
Well the jury is still out on Kevin Kolb (also coached by Art Briles) who had 30 TDs and 4 INTs his senior year.

Graham Harrell hasn't amounted to much in the NFL. He had 45 TDs and 9 INTs his senior year (that's only 5-to-1 but it's close).

I don't think Chase Clement from Rice was ever drafted he had 44 TDs and 7 INTs his senior year.

I don't know what Kellen Moore will do in the pros but in the last 3 years Moore has thrown 115 TDs and only 16 INTs (that's better than 7-to-1).

My question was: Has a strong armed QB, with a 6-1 TD-INT ratio, ever failed in the NFL?

And Graham Harrell, Chase Clement, and Kellen Moore are all considered a weak-armed QBs.

Kevin Kolb might be the closest, but I think RGIII has a stronger arm, has better college stats (completion percentage, and yards per attempt), and played a tougher schedule.

If "Kevin Kolb" is the worst-case-scenario for RGIII, that's pretty good, considering RGIII's upside.

ckparrothead
12-14-2011, 05:40 PM
Here are some examples of how I see things differently from some others. Not necessarily more accurately, I just can't help but see what I see and if it's different from what these guys see then I'm going to disagree. It's only natural.

You take the in-depth breakdown of Robert Griffin, that we're talking about in this thread.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/979087-robert-griffin-iii-2012-nfl-draft-scouting-report

The very first video is a video that is meant by the article writer to show off Robert Griffin's accuracy.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ECtEm9-sX_I

But here's what I see on the play that is concerning right off the bat. Why did he give up on this pocket? As a quarterback you need to step up and, if you need to, out, not bail to the outside like that. He did not need to bail on this pocket. By doing so he basically tossed the play in the trash can and played some playground football instead of making reads.

The play sets up a triangle read with the inside post receiver and the outside vertical receiver, forcing the safety to that side to declare his coverage. If he commits outside to the vertical then the inside post will come open. If he commits inside (which is the case here), then the outside vertical will come open. The pocket is not broken. You need to climb the pocket and continue reading that safety, then make your throw with proper timing and accuracy.

What ends up happening is the left corner bails Robert Griffin out of a bad decision. The corner either didn't know what the responsibilitie were of the other players on his defense, or he didn't care, because he peeked into the backfield to see what Robert Griffin was doing be it running or passing. The defense already has a spy assigned in case Griffin breaks containment, and furthermoe the underneath zone cover guy that passed off the inside post receiver can also be a first responder in a broken containment situation. The corner is really the LAST person that should be worried about whether Robert is scrambling or passing. But he pulls a Jason Allen and so Griffin is able to fire the ball into the end zone to a receiver that is somehow still open even though Griffin screwed up the timing of the play.

What I want to know is, why did he bail from that pocket? Considering some things I've seen have already led me to believe that Griffin does not see the field and make reads well from inside the pocket, and wants to get out of the pocket in order to get clearer vision, this play is another red flag for me...whereas everyone else can't stop gushing about the touchdonw he just threw.

The next video, the writer actually does highlight a bad decision by Griffin...but claims that it's "rare". I'm not so sure, given what I feel is the root of the problem.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XP8V2S0WYaU

This play is a moving pocket, basically a play designed to get Griffin to a side of the field where he can see the field better and make a better throw. He executes. I'm going to pause the play at 15 seconds, right as Robert gears down as he reaches the left most portion of the "X" in "TEXAS A&M". You freeze that, and he's got the vertical receiver dead to rights. The receiver (probably Kendall Wright) has separation on the corner vertically, the safety has committed to the underneath play...if Robert Griffin releases a 55 to 60 yard throw to the perimeter, then Wright has zero trouble running underneath that ball and catching it probably for a touchdown. At the spot I've got it frozen, Wright has 15 yards of vertical space between he and Griffin, and outside shoulder ball placement would have required no more than 45 to 50 feet of horizontal clearance, and so a 60 yard throw at the average speeds most common in franchise quarterbacks would have taken about 3.0 seconds which is 3.5 seconds if you account for release time, which would have required Wright to clear about 40 to 45 yards in 3.5 seconds which is plenty of time given that he's already at a running start.

Basically, that's a long and scientifically showable way of saying that the design of the play and the look Robert Griffin got was just right to have executed the moving pocket and released a deep ball to Wright for a touchdown. What we see instead though is hesitation from Grififn.

Why the hesitation? Because he doesn't SEE it. If you have it pausded at 15 seconds right when he's at the leftmost side of the "X", you can draw a line straight from Robert Griffin to Kendall Wright, and that line would touch two offensive linemen and two defensive linemen that moved out with Robert in the moving pocket. His hesitation here stems from the simple fact that he can't see over them, and so he doesn't trust the throw. Another example of bad vision from the pocket, only this team it was even a moving pocket situation designed to get him some better vision.

Then you have this video which is meant to show "Field Vision". There are two plays on the video.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2JNWGF0Z7Ak

The first play does not show "Field Vision" after the snap. It shows the quality of his pre-snap reads, and his willingness to use his eyes to disguise his intentions. However, he throws this ball pretty much blind, based on what he saw in the coverage spacing prior to the snap. He looks left and then turns right and fires the ball. Could he have pulled the ball down if he saw coverage he didn't like on the right side? Maybe. But we don't know because it didn't happen. Given the other troubles I keep seeing in his ability to see the field from the pocket, I have my doubts. This could have been an interception much like the one Chad Henne threw in the second half of the 2009 Chargers game when Eric Weddle was playing the weak side and cheated downward to Davone Bess' hitch route from the slot, while Henne was busy looking to the right to try and disguise his intentions on the play. Henne flipped back over to the left and fired the football blind, trusting that Bess would be open, but Weddle had cheated based on his film study, and snagged the easy pick.

The second play of this video shows vision, but it's vision outside the pocket where I don't think I would make a case he has any problems. It is indeed a run/pass option as the author says. The failure was not really in the three defenders that gave Griffin chase trying to make sure he didn't run it in for the score, but rather the corner in man coverage that simply can't stay plastered to Terrance Williams. But if you look at the play, those were Robert's only two options because of the run-pass option play design. Either he runs it or he throws it to Williams. In the NFL you're going to run into more corners that can stay plastered to the receiver in man coverage like that, and so Griffin would be left in that situation either throwing the ball away or taking his chances against the three defensive players that were bearing down on him...which would get him tackled and potentially hurt.

The final one is one that is supposed to show pocket presence.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gzHlgIRKKfI

This is a video I have actually addressed before, because it's a prime example of some of the SHOTS that I see Griffin taking every game...that he won't survive in the NFL. This is 3rd & 22 so I'm not going to blame Robert for not converting this down. But I do blame him for taking the shot he took. It's not toughness, to me. It's stupidity. You count pre-snap and he's got 6 guys crowding the line showing blitz. Yeah, he has 6 guys to block them, but that's not a good situation. Those aren't good numbers. Someone's going to break free. He has to be more decisive with this ball. This particular video of the play is a little more cut off than the one I remember talking about before. But he's got a slot receiver running a stick route against plenty of space from the safety. He's floating to the inside. You lead him to the inside so that he's forced to run through the catch, and there would be a lot of space for him to run over the middle and try and make SOMETHING happen. But if you look at the vertical cam view that ball would have had to go right into an area where Robert doesn't have good vision because of his height.

So instead Robert takes his sweet @ss time, looks right, looks left, comes back to the right and throws the ball to a guy on a 5 route that was not going to get the 1st down anyway. It's no wonder he got lit up after he threw the ball.

It's just an example of a different way of thinking. Most people see that play and the first thought that pops into their head is "Awesome toughness!". I see that play and the first thing that pops into my head is "You let yourself get lit up for no good reason".

I'm not saying I think of it the right way and others thing of it the wrong way. There's usually at least two ways to see every play. But it just shows you, when I talk about significant issues that Robert Griffin has...this is what I'm looking at. This is why I'm seeing it different from most others.

finsfanjay13
12-14-2011, 05:52 PM
I believe the receiver you're talking about in the second video is Terrance Williams (#2) and not Kendall Wright (#1). Semantics and doesn't change a damn thing, I know. Nice analysis, FWIW.

ckparrothead
12-14-2011, 06:19 PM
I believe the receiver you're talking about in the second video is Terrance Williams (#2) and not Kendall Wright (#1). Semantics and doesn't change a damn thing, I know. Nice analysis, FWIW.

Ah ok. Yeah, my eyes are going bad, lol. :)

Pinkboy
12-14-2011, 06:48 PM
CK's analysis of Griffin >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> OP's analysis of Griffin that came from "BleacherReport" of all places :lol:

AZStryker
12-14-2011, 07:36 PM
CK's analysis of Griffin >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> OP's analysis of Griffin that came from "BleacherReport" of all places :lol:

I find it absolutely hilarious that you've been calling for us to lose out and Griffin (the QB you don't like) will very likely be our pick. You've got to record your reaction and post it here!

datruth55
12-15-2011, 12:33 AM
My question was: Has a strong armed QB, with a 6-1 TD-INT ratio, ever failed in the NFL?

And Graham Harrell, Chase Clement, and Kellen Moore are all considered a weak-armed QBs.

Kevin Kolb might be the closest, but I think RGIII has a stronger arm, has better college stats (completion percentage, and yards per attempt), and played a tougher schedule.

If "Kevin Kolb" is the worst-case-scenario for RGIII, that's pretty good, considering RGIII's upside.
Well then if RGIII is the first strong armed QB with a 6-to-1 TD to INT ratio to enter the NFL you have nothing to compare him to, so there's no way to know by his college stats if he'll be successful.

Incidently, college stats don't mean as much as some people make them out to mean.

hooshoops
12-15-2011, 10:57 AM
i can definitely see rg3 going in the top 10...he's got some high end physical tools...on tape he looks to me like a guy who's gonna run in the 4.4's which will get a lot of peoples attention and you know he's gonna test very well...but i doubt he's 6 ft 2 and more than 210 lbs and i bet if he does weigh in more than that at the combine it will be because he guzzled jugs of water before hand... and i agree with ck that he doesn't see things because of his height...he looks like a guy to me who you want to move the pocket with and get him out on the edge where he's most comfortable...there's a bit too much bail tendency there and while he's explosive he's more a straight line athlete...and the delivery is very slow

i don't see how anyone would take this kid and consider him a better/same level prospect than cam newton if you put them head to head as draft prospects...it's just not the same thing...not by a long shot imo

could i see us pulling the trigger on this kid though with our top pick??? yes i can...he's a high end physical talent thats clean as a whistle off the field and carries himself very well...i'd take him over landry jones i know that...

ckparrothead
12-15-2011, 11:15 AM
I have a lot of nits about his foot work, his weight transference, the consistency, speed and height of his release, his posture in the pocket, the lack of mastery over every type of throw (touch throws), his size, his training in Art Briles' offense, and his tendency to bail on good pockets. However, between his arm strength, inherent accuracy, mobility, athletic concentration, decisiveness, intelligence and work ethic, he has enough tools to overcome those problems, many of which can improve because of his intangibles.

Bottom line is, that only works IF you don't believe me about him not seeing the field through clutter. That's the straw that breaks the camel's back. He can even overcome the mechanical issues, the offensive style issues, even the tendency to want to bail on good pockets, if he's truly seeing the field from inside the pocket and through clutter. But if he's not, then it's not going to work.

hooshoops
12-15-2011, 11:23 AM
i'm just wondering...what makes drew brees able to see the field any more than rg3 when he came out??? i mean brees has to see the field thru throwing lanes just like rg3 would...at least thats the way it would seem to me...

but with this new rookie wage scale and the type of physical tools this kid possesses and he's another kid thats gonna do nothing but win in the interview room at least someones gonna talk themselves into this kids tools and probably in the top 10...i'll be real surprised if he doesn't burn up the carpet in the 40...

there's not a team in this league who can't eat $4 mil if they have to worst case scenario using a top 10 pick on a physical talent like him...that rookie wage scale imo means he goes even higher than he would in the old cba...just not near as much financial and cap risk

low risk possible high reward...

ckparrothead
12-15-2011, 12:01 PM
I agree. If I'm picking in the top 10 and I feel like I've got an iffy QB situation but not necessarily a bad one, then RG3 is low risk, high reward.

But if I'm a team that doesn't have a QB at all, then RG3 is high risk, high reward...because of opportunity cost. When you take Robert Griffin, you're saying no to Matt Barkley, Ryan Tannehill, Landry Jones, Brandon Weeden, etc. If there's no 'other guy' on the roster...then that's a high risk maneuver.

ckparrothead
12-15-2011, 12:03 PM
As for height, some guys can see the field anyway, some can't. That's all I can say. Matt Barkley is the same height as RG3 but I don't see him having issues with seeing the field through clutter or with inability to use the short middle. Drew Brees can see the field at 6'0". I've seen other 6'0" guys that I know are not seeing the field.

greasyObnoxious
12-15-2011, 12:37 PM
i'm just wondering...what makes drew brees able to see the field any more than rg3 when he came out??? i mean brees has to see the field thru throwing lanes just like rg3 would...at least thats the way it would seem to me...

but with this new rookie wage scale and the type of physical tools this kid possesses and he's another kid thats gonna do nothing but win in the interview room at least someones gonna talk themselves into this kids tools and probably in the top 10...i'll be real surprised if he doesn't burn up the carpet in the 40...

there's not a team in this league who can't eat $4 mil if they have to worst case scenario using a top 10 pick on a physical talent like him...that rookie wage scale imo means he goes even higher than he would in the old cba...just not near as much financial and cap risk

low risk possible high reward...

well, for one experience. it took Brees almost four years to see the field well and he got better at it every year. he just knows how to move around in the pocket and create seeing lanes that way. for two, Brees is such a student of the game, i guess he has a pretty good feel where his receivers are on the field by now. that doesn't mean he knows where the defenders are, but he should know receiver X is between the LB and the safety, even if he doesn't see him based on the plays that are called.

ticophin
12-15-2011, 01:50 PM
Why does Brees see the field? Because he trusts his arm as weapon #1, so he has patience in his line, and WILL move up into the LOS if needed...when weapon #1 and #2 (running, moving lateraly) are of equal value, RGIII will not have so much patience for the fog to clear, he will bail out quicker, its just his instinct!

datruth55
12-15-2011, 03:29 PM
well, for one experience. it took Brees almost four years to see the field well and he got better at it every year. he just knows how to move around in the pocket and create seeing lanes that way. for two, Brees is such a student of the game, i guess he has a pretty good feel where his receivers are on the field by now. that doesn't mean he knows where the defenders are, but he should know receiver X is between the LB and the safety, even if he doesn't see him based on the plays that are called.
So are you saying Brees is throwing passes blind? Brees stands tall in the pocket, he also has an over the top delivery which helps him a lot. I don't know what the number of batted balls are for Brees but I do know guys like Kyle Orton (6'4") and Rex Grossman (6'1") have a high number of batted balls because they don't have quick releases and they don't have a high release point.

greasyObnoxious
12-15-2011, 03:36 PM
So are you saying Brees is throwing passes blind? Brees stands tall in the pocket, he also has an over the top delivery which helps him a lot. I don't know what the number of batted balls are for Brees but I do know guys like Kyle Orton (6'4") and Rex Grossman (6'1") have a high number of batted balls because they don't have quick releases and they don't have a high release point.

no, i'm not saying he's throwing passes blind. he sees where defenders are as well. but he knows where his guys are and trusts them

ckparrothead
12-15-2011, 03:59 PM
So are you saying Brees is throwing passes blind? Brees stands tall in the pocket, he also has an over the top delivery which helps him a lot. I don't know what the number of batted balls are for Brees but I do know guys like Kyle Orton (6'4") and Rex Grossman (6'1") have a high number of batted balls because they don't have quick releases and they don't have a high release point.

I personally think that having balls batted down usually has more to do with feet and paying attention to your passing lanes than anything. If you're 6'5" and have an over the top delivery then you're probably going to reduce the number of batted balls just by virtue of those facts. But how many guys have that going for them? The primary source of variation in the number of batted balls is, in my opnion, how cognizant you are of your passing lanes and how quickly you use your feet to manipulate them.

There's a correlation between height and tendency to get balls batted at the line...but not a strong one. Only about 20%.

hilslo
12-16-2011, 09:02 PM
I personally think that having balls batted down usually has more to do with feet and paying attention to your passing lanes than anything. If you're 6'5" and have an over the top delivery then you're probably going to reduce the number of batted balls just by virtue of those facts. But how many guys have that going for them? The primary source of variation in the number of batted balls is, in my opnion, how cognizant you are of your passing lanes and how quickly you use your feet to manipulate them.

There's a correlation between height and tendency to get balls batted at the line...but not a strong one. Only about 20%.

Are you saying QB height is positively correlated with getting less balls batted down? Makes sense, but where does 20% come from? Just curious what data you're looking at...

Keeno1
12-17-2011, 11:12 AM
Bottom line is, that only works IF you don't believe me about him not seeing the field through clutter. That's the straw that breaks the camel's back. He can even overcome the mechanical issues, the offensive style issues, even the tendency to want to bail on good pockets, if he's truly seeing the field from inside the pocket and through clutter. But if he's not, then it's not going to work.

How does Barkley overcome this problem? There are knocks about his height as well. What does he do differently that separates himself from RGIII in this regard? Or is it that he is just taller even though they are listed at the same height?

OR, is it even a height issue and more about not making proper reads?

Keeno1
12-17-2011, 11:24 AM
Nevermind. I just saw this was asked and answered.

ckparrothead
12-17-2011, 12:46 PM
Are you saying QB height is positively correlated with getting less balls batted down? Makes sense, but where does 20% come from? Just curious what data you're looking at...

I compiled the data myself. The correlation between height and balls batted down is about 20%. Or rather, -20%.