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TedSlimmJr
12-19-2011, 12:20 PM
Figured I'd make a quick list of some prospects (Seniors) that are underrated players in my opinion, that will go outside the 1st round.


Quarterback:

(Rounds 2-3) - Ryan Lindley - San Diego St. / Nick Foles - Arizona

(Rounds 4-5) - Russell Wilson - Wisconsin / Chandler Harnish - Northern Illinois

(Rounds 6-UDFA) - Austin Davis - Southern Miss. / Dan Persa - Northwestern




Runningback:

(Rounds 2-3) - Doug Martin - Boise St. / Brandon Bolden - Ole Miss

(Rounds 4-5) - Vick Ballard - Miss St. / Bobby Rainey - Western Kentucky / Dan Herron - Ohio St.

(Rounds 6-UDFA) - Michael Smith - Utah St. / Fozzy Whittaker - Texas / Alfred Morris - Florida Atlantic




Wide Receiver:

(Rounds 2-3) - B.J. Cunningham - Michigan St. / Jarius Wright - Arkansas / T.Y. Hilton - FIU

(Rounds 4-5) - Rishard Matthews - Nevada / Jermaine Kearse - Washington / Lavon Brazill - Ohio / Jarrett Boykin - Virginia Tech

(Rounds 6-UDFA) - Jeremy Ebert - Northwestern / Greg Childs - Arkansas / Jordan White - Western Michigan / T.J. Graham - N.C. State




Tight End:

(Rounds 2-3) - Ladarius Green - UL-Lafayette

(Rounds 4-5) - Josh Chichester - Louisville / Brad Herman - Iowa

(Rounds 6-UDFA) - Brandon Barden - Vanderbilt / Nick Provo - Syracuse




Offensive Tackle:

(Rounds 2-3) - Brandon Mosley - Auburn

(Rounds 4-5) - Jeff Allen - Illinois

(Rounds 6-UDFA) - Matt McCants - UAB




Guard:

(Rounds 2-3) - Jaymes Brooks - Virginia Tech

(Rounds 4-5) - Will Blackwell - LSU

(Rounds 6-UDFA) - Joe Looney - Wake Forest




Center:

(Rounds 2-3) - David Molk - Michigan

(Rounds 4-5) - Phillip Blake - Baylor

(Rounds 6-UDFA) - Scott Wedige - Northern Illinois









Defensive End:

(Rounds 2-3) - Jake Bequette - Arkansas

(Rounds 4-5) - Malik Jackson - Tennessee

(Rounds 6-UDFA) - Cordarro Law - Southern Miss. / James Brooks - UNA




Defensive Tackle:

(Rounds 2-3) - Derek Wolfe - Cincinnati

(Rounds 4-5) - Josh Chapman - Alabama

(Rounds 6-UDFA) - Mike Martin - Michigan




Outside Linebacker (3-4 Rush):

(Rounds 2-3) - Bruce Irvin - West Virginia

(Rounds 4-5) - Frank Alexander - Oklahoma / Adrian Robinson - Temple

(Rounds 6-UDFA) - Kyle Wilber - Wake Forest




Outside Linebacker (4-3):

(Rounds 2-3) - Danny Trevathon - Kentucky

(Rounds 4-5) - Josh Kaddu - Oregon

(Rounds 6-UDFA) - Jerell Harris - Alabama / Demorio Davis - Arkansas St.




Inside Linebacker:

(Rounds 2-3) - Tank Carder - TCU

(Rounds 4-5) - James Michael-Johnson - Nevada

(Rounds 6-UDFA) - Marcus Dowtin - UNA




Cornerback:

(Rounds 2-3) - Casey Hayward - Vanderbilt / Jamell Fleming - Oklahoma

(Rounds 4-5) - Charles Brown - North Carolina / Dequan Menzie - Alabama / Leonard Johnson - Iowa St.

(Rounds 6-UDFA) - Mike Harris - Florida St. / Omar Bolden - Arizona St. / Richard Crawford - SMU / Troy Stoudermire - Minnesota




Safety:

(Rounds 2-3) - Tramain Thomas - Arkansas / Aaron Henry - Wisconsin

(Rounds 4-5) - Winston Guy - Kentucky / Duke Ihenacho - San Jose St.

(Rounds 6-UDFA) - Kelcie McCray - Arkansas St. / Kendrick Presley - Southern Miss.

JCane
12-19-2011, 12:26 PM
Slimm's Gems...

:lol: :lol:

I love it. Catchy. Very well done.

I noticed that you didn't have Coby Fleener in your list of tight ends. I'm assuming you feel as if he'll have a strong pro day coupled with a promising combine to push him into the late first round, yes?

datruth55
12-19-2011, 12:45 PM
Slimm's Gems...

:lol: :lol:

I love it. Catchy. Very well done.

I noticed that you didn't have Coby Fleener in your list of tight ends. I'm assuming you feel as if he'll have a strong pro day coupled with a promising combine to push him into the late first round, yes?
He's listing underrated players. Don't think Fleener is underrated regardless of what round he goes in.

TedSlimmJr
12-19-2011, 12:45 PM
Slimm's Gems...

:lol: :lol:

I love it. Catchy. Very well done.

I noticed that you didn't have Coby Fleener in your list of tight ends. I'm assuming you feel as if he'll have a strong pro day coupled with a promising combine to push him into the late first round, yes?


I like Fleener, and I think he probably goes somewhere in 2nd round. But you can't go a day without Coby Fleener's name being mentioned. Everybody knows about Coby Fleener.

There's some familiar players on here, but my point was more to bring up some guys who don't get talked about much. I'm sure half of these kids are players most have never even seen before.

You'll even notice some names on here from UNA, which is a local D-II school here that I'm very familar with. They're coached by Bobby's boy, Terry Bowden, and get a lot of D-1 transfers that are forced to leave the big time programs in the southeastern part of the country for one reason or another. Janoris Jenkins being the most obvious and well known, but the Dowtin kid who transferred from Florida St. has also been outstanding and played well for UNA. I think he has a chance to make a roster in the NFL.

TedSlimmJr
12-19-2011, 12:52 PM
The running back from Utah St., Michael Smith..... the more I go back and watch him, the more amazed I am that nobody has taken notice.

Robert Turbin gets most of the recognition, but this Smith kid is absolutely dynamic. Explosive, compact runner that runs well inside and breaks arm tackles with ease. Once he gets in the open field, it's over. You might as well go sit down and drink some water because you ain't catching him.

I think he's a giant sleeper who can be a capable change-of-pace back. Terrific hands out of the backfield too. Reminds me of Willie Parker, who was also obviously overlooked coming out of North Carolina.

JCane
12-19-2011, 01:00 PM
Yeah, everyone knows about Coby Fleener. But that doesn't mean that he can't be underrated. For his size and his ability one would think that he'd be a late first rounder at least...especially when we consider just how dominate the tight end position is becoming in the NFL.

Other than the obvious first round QB, Fleener is next on my draft board.

JCane
12-19-2011, 01:07 PM
Also, Adrian Robinson out of Temple is a kid that I like. With Golden coming to Miami from Temple we had to do a little research on some of the kids at Temple.

What about Marcus Forston. Super stud coming out of Miami Northwestern in that 2008 class. Very inconsistent while in college, but I think we've seen a lot of the talent at Miami go to waste because of the Coker and Shannon eras.

We've seen some of these kids get into the league and with some solid coaching at the next level, they've exceeded expectations thus far. Colin McCarthy couldn't tackle the dummies in practice. Now he's looking like all-rookie first team at linebacker.

Aggravates the piss out of me when I think about the amount of talent we've wasted.

ChambersWI
12-19-2011, 01:07 PM
I'm shocked you have Mike Martin ranked so low Slimm.

As a Michigan fan, David Molk is one player I have so much adoration for. Was under 200 lbs as a freshmen, grew and earned a scholarship fro Lloyd Carr but a lot of fans hated us giving him an offer. Worked his *** off the year he redshirted and had to learn a spread under Rich Rod. He's one of the guys that brought the team together when Rod was fired. A lot stronger of a OL then you'd think and by far Michigan's best offensive player with all due respect to Shoelace. Case in point, when Forcier was our starter we didn't have our collapse until Molk got hurt.

TedSlimmJr
12-19-2011, 01:36 PM
Yeah, everyone knows about Coby Fleener. But that doesn't mean that he can't be underrated. For his size and his ability one would think that he'd be a late first rounder at least...especially when we consider just how dominate the tight end position is becoming in the NFL.

Other than the obvious first round QB, Fleener is next on my draft board.


I don't think a lot of people realize this. They don't realize how much more important a quality TE is as opposed to a "#1" receiver.

The key is having TWO good tight ends, but that complement one another. They have to be different. The teams who run the multiple TE sets (Packers, Patriots, Texans, etc.) are the most successful teams in the league. Even the Panthers have done this in order to help Cam Newon with Shockey and Olson.

Bill Belichek is a genius. He saw the trend developing in the NFL where most of the teams were making the transition to a base 3-4 defense, so he started implementing the 2-TE set.

The multiple TE set negates a lot of what the 3-4 defense can do with their rush OLB's. If the defense sends out pass personnel trying to matchup with your TE's from a coverage standpoint (Nickel package, extra DB, etc.) you can run on them out of the 2-TE set. If they stay in their base personnel, they can't match up with Gronkoski or Hernandez in coverage with linebackers. The defense has no answer either way.

The key is having an athletic mismatch like Hernandez who you can split out wide and get isolated on a linebacker or safety in coverage. Basically function as a wide receiver for you matched up in space one-on-one. Combined with having a monster like Gronk who can stay in and block as an in-line TE to negate the rush 3-4 OLB's, or make them look silly trying to cover him.

The weak points of any defense, I don't care what coverage you're running, is up the seams. It's a major coaching point that Saban has always stressed to his defense. The way you control the seams and force safeties to play you honest is with a seam stretching TE. You attack it the same, you just switch up how many vertical stretches you want to run depending on what coverage the defense likes to play. You can do it out of 21-personnel, 11-personnel, 10-personnel, etc.

Coby Fleener is the 6'6", 250 pound seem stretching type TE that Miami needs in order to get more production out of a guy like Fasano.... the same way David Martin helped him. Charles Clay is your H-back who lines up off-set from the line of scrimmage in order to get a clean release.

A "#1" receiver is too easy to double cover and take out of the game if you don't have the tight end capable of making safeties play you honest up the seam.

TedSlimmJr
12-19-2011, 01:44 PM
I'm shocked you have Mike Martin ranked so low Slimm.

As a Michigan fan, David Molk is one player I have so much adoration for. Was under 200 lbs as a freshmen, grew and earned a scholarship fro Lloyd Carr but a lot of fans hated us giving him an offer. Worked his *** off the year he redshirted and had to learn a spread under Rich Rod. He's one of the guys that brought the team together when Rod was fired. A lot stronger of a OL then you'd think and by far Michigan's best offensive player with all due respect to Shoelace. Case in point, when Forcier was our starter we didn't have our collapse until Molk got hurt.


I have Martin as more of a late rounder because he's strictly a 2-down player in the NFL. It's a deep DT class in terms of pass rushers, and guys with length who potentially project as 5-techs in odd fronts. Their value is going to be greater.... pushing guys like Chapman and Martin further down in my opinion.

Martin may go in the middle rounds (4 or 5). I like Martin as a player, although I don't see his value being high for the type of role he's going to play in the NFL.

ckparrothead
12-19-2011, 03:33 PM
I like Ryan Lindley, Nick Foles and Russell Wilson. I haven't watched much of Chandler Harnish but I can see why you like him. I guess you can call me in agreement on Lindley, Foles and Wilson, with Harnish in the "you can convince me" territory.

Not really a big fan of Brandon Bolden, Bobby Rainey, Dan Herron or Fozzy Whitaker. You can have them. But I love Vick Ballard, Doug Martin is someone I waffle on and so a convincing argument could win me over...and from what I've seen of Michael Smith, same thing. I can see the dynamic between he and Turbin that would lead you to Smith as the guy you're more likely to watch for at the next level. Turbin broke more arm tackles against Ohio U the other night, but Smith was just as impressive, just more quiet, less flashy. More athleticism means he probably is the one with a better NFL future.

You don't have to do any convincing with me on Jarius Wright, T.Y. Hilton or Rishard Matthews. I think we've talked about Rishard before.

And after the game I watched Ladarius Green have against San Diego State...that's my new favorite sleeper aside from Chichester whom we've already discussed. Green had a fantastic day, and that matchup of him and Larry Parker in the end zone was pretty epic.

Jeff Allen is amongst my sleepers at the tackle position as well. Watched a fair amount of his 2010 tape and had him pegged as a guy I'll be paying attention to.

Full agreement on Jake Bequette, think we've talked about him. Little surprised given what you've said about him that Melvin Ingram not listed there, or among your 3-4 rush linebackers...

Love Tank Carder, Leonard Johnson and Duke Ihenacho.

ckparrothead
12-19-2011, 04:00 PM
I think the following SENIORS either are underrated, or one way or another I feel like they're likely to be underrated.

QB - Brandon Weeden (R2)

RB - Cyrus Gray (R3), Vick Ballard (R4), Jeff Demps (R5)

TE - Ladarius Green (R3), Josh Chichester (R6)

WR - Dwight Jones (R2), Joe Adams (R4), T.Y. Hilton (R4), Ryan Broyles (R4), Jarius Wright (R4), Gerell Robinson (R5), Marvin Jones (R6), Juron Criner (R6), Rishard Matthews (R7)

DT - Brandon Thompson (#15-25), Alamaeda Ta'amu (R2), Matt Conrath (R6)

DE/PR - Courtney Upshaw (#25-32), Melvin Ingram (R2), Cam Johnson (R2), Jake Bequette (R5)

LB - Tank Carder (R5), Chris Galippo (R6), Adrien Cole (R7), Eltoro Freeman (UDFA), Lance Kelley (UDFA)

CB - Alfonzo Dennard (#20-32), Leonard Johnson (R3), Dwight Bentley (R7), Larry Parker (UDFA)

S - Markelle Martin (R2), Duke Ihenacho (R4), Jerrell Young (R6), Brandon Taylor (R7)

TedSlimmJr
12-19-2011, 04:06 PM
Also, Adrian Robinson out of Temple is a kid that I like. With Golden coming to Miami from Temple we had to do a little research on some of the kids at Temple.

What about Marcus Forston. Super stud coming out of Miami Northwestern in that 2008 class. Very inconsistent while in college, but I think we've seen a lot of the talent at Miami go to waste because of the Coker and Shannon eras.

We've seen some of these kids get into the league and with some solid coaching at the next level, they've exceeded expectations thus far. Colin McCarthy couldn't tackle the dummies in practice. Now he's looking like all-rookie first team at linebacker.

Aggravates the piss out of me when I think about the amount of talent we've wasted.


That's been the problem with Miami kids for almost a decade. When you try to evaluate them, it's hard to get a bead because most of them are raw as a turnip even after 3 and 4 years in the program. The talent just hasn't been getting developed on campus.

The underclassmen like to declare early from Miami knowing they'll be just as raw even if they stay another year. I think Al Golden might remedy some of that though, he needs some time.

As for Forston, I don't think much of him at all. His problem goes further than being raw.

I think Spence and Washington are worth their draft slot. Streeter looks he has Chris Henry type upside. Lamar Miller has tremendous talent, I'd just like to see him run a little tougher and improve in pass protection, he'll have to in the NFL.

TedSlimmJr
12-19-2011, 04:13 PM
I like Ryan Lindley, Nick Foles and Russell Wilson. I haven't watched much of Chandler Harnish but I can see why you like him. I guess you can call me in agreement on Lindley, Foles and Wilson, with Harnish in the "you can convince me" territory.

Not really a big fan of Brandon Bolden, Bobby Rainey, Dan Herron or Fozzy Whitaker. You can have them. But I love Vick Ballard, Doug Martin is someone I waffle on and so a convincing argument could win me over...and from what I've seen of Michael Smith, same thing. I can see the dynamic between he and Turbin that would lead you to Smith as the guy you're more likely to watch for at the next level. Turbin broke more arm tackles against Ohio U the other night, but Smith was just as impressive, just more quiet, less flashy. More athleticism means he probably is the one with a better NFL future.

You don't have to do any convincing with me on Jarius Wright, T.Y. Hilton or Rishard Matthews. I think we've talked about Rishard before.

And after the game I watched Ladarius Green have against San Diego State...that's my new favorite sleeper aside from Chichester whom we've already discussed. Green had a fantastic day, and that matchup of him and Larry Parker in the end zone was pretty epic.

Jeff Allen is amongst my sleepers at the tackle position as well. Watched a fair amount of his 2010 tape and had him pegged as a guy I'll be paying attention to.

Full agreement on Jake Bequette, think we've talked about him. Little surprised given what you've said about him that Melvin Ingram not listed there, or among your 3-4 rush linebackers...

Love Tank Carder, Leonard Johnson and Duke Ihenacho.


I figured I had gushed over Melvin Ingram enough in the other thread and made it clear how underrated I think he is. I'd take him in the top 10-12 picks.

There's a good number of other prospects that I'm fond of, but many of these were kids I hadn't necessarily talked about much.

TedSlimmJr
12-19-2011, 04:18 PM
I think the following SENIORS either are underrated, or one way or another I feel like they're likely to be underrated.

QB - Brandon Weeden (R2)

RB - Cyrus Gray (R3), Vick Ballard (R4), Jeff Demps (R5)

TE - Ladarius Green (R3), Josh Chichester (R6)

WR - Dwight Jones (R2), Joe Adams (R4), T.Y. Hilton (R4), Ryan Broyles (R4), Jarius Wright (R4), Gerell Robinson (R5), Marvin Jones (R6), Juron Criner (R6), Rishard Matthews (R7)

DT - Brandon Thompson (#15-25), Alamaeda Ta'amu (R2), Matt Conrath (R6)

DE/PR - Courtney Upshaw (#25-32), Melvin Ingram (R2), Cam Johnson (R2), Jake Bequette (R5)

LB - Tank Carder (R5), Chris Galippo (R6), Adrien Cole (R7), Eltoro Freeman (UDFA), Lance Kelley (UDFA)

CB - Alfonzo Dennard (#20-32), Leonard Johnson (R3), Dwight Bentley (R7), Larry Parker (UDFA)

S - Markelle Martin (R2), Duke Ihenacho (R4), Jerrell Young (R6), Brandon Taylor (R7)



Like all these guys bolded here. Brandon Taylor, Larry Parker, Eltoro Freeman, Adrien Cole, Courtney Upshaw, Melvin Ingram, Joe Adams, and Rishard Matthews are all substantially underrated in my opinion.

I think you nailed it with the Larry Parker kid. Great find.

LouPhinFan
12-19-2011, 08:17 PM
As far as Louisville is concerned, along with Josh Chichester, you might want to look at linebacker Dexter Heyman. He really should have been 1st team all conference, but ended up on the second team. He's got NFL size (6'3" 240 lbs) and good instincts. He's a film room junkie, and served as the QB for the defense. Good teamleader on a young team (2nd youngest in D-1).

2011 Stats:

52 tkls
31 assists
15.5 TFLs
4 scks
1 FF
3 INTs
1 pass breakup

WelcomeBack
12-19-2011, 08:24 PM
One name from USC to probably check out may be DaJohn Harris. Doesn't get talked about a lot, but I think he'd be a solid player in the league.

TedSlimmJr
12-19-2011, 08:33 PM
As far as Louisville is concerned, along with Josh Chichester, you might want to look at linebacker Dexter Heyman. He really should have been 1st team all conference, but ended up on the second team. He's got NFL size (6'3" 240 lbs) and good instincts. He's a film room junkie, and served as the QB for the defense. Good teamleader on a young team (2nd youngest in D-1).

2011 Stats:

52 tkls
31 assists
15.5 TFLs
4 scks
1 FF
3 INTs
1 pass breakup



Absolutely. It was him or James Michael-Johnson for that spot but I went with JMJ because I knew you would probably want to bring up Heyman. I doubt anyone was going to pay JMJ any attention.

Heyman will get his due as the draft nears. NFL people know he's a Charlie Strong coached linebacker. He won't be oblivious long.... especially once he gets an invite to the Senior Bowl, which I expect him to get.

LouPhinFan
12-19-2011, 11:03 PM
Absolutely. It was him or James Michael-Johnson for that spot but I went with JMJ because I knew you would probably want to bring up Heyman. I doubt anyone was going to pay JMJ any attention.

Heyman will get his due as the draft nears. NFL people know he's a Charlie Strong coached linebacker. He won't be oblivious long.... especially once he gets an invite to the Senior Bowl, which I expect him to get.

The really good talent on that defense is in the underclassmen. It appears Charlie Strong has made a commitment to stay at U of L for an extended period. I fully expect U of L to start churning out some stellar defensive talent to the draft in the next couple of years.

BobDole
12-19-2011, 11:12 PM
The really good talent on that defense is in the underclassmen. It appears Charlie Strong has made a commitment to stay at U of L for an extended period. I fully expect U of L to start churning out some stellar defensive talent to the draft in the next couple of years.

i seriously hate you guys for stealing strong. dude knows what's up on defense.

Vheod
12-20-2011, 06:11 AM
Just to give an opinion from an infrequent poster. I seriously think Greg Childs from Arkansas can be a major steal from the later rounds. I live in Arkansas and he was the clear cut number 1 receiver ahead of Jarius Wright and Joe Adams (both who are likely to go in the early to mid-rounds) but a year removed from his injury he just hasn't been the same. I seriously think if you can grab him in a later round, and if his rehab proves more productive than it has this year, then the fins could be in for a real surprise. Just an opinion from a biased Razorbacks fan. hah.

LouPhinFan
12-20-2011, 07:48 AM
i seriously hate you guys for stealing strong. dude knows what's up on defense.

He and DC Vance Bedford are awesome. Bedford gave a speech before the season to reporters that made me want to go out and hit someone. Just search Youtube for "Vance Bedford train speech", you'll get a kick out of it. It really does appear that Strong is wanting to build a legacy here. Its clues from him and from his assistants. Clint Hurtt (say what you want about his recruiting tactics at UM) turned down the same position at Auburn to stay here. That in and of itself speaks volumes, IMO.

SMadison29
12-20-2011, 02:36 PM
I think most of your 2nd-3rd rounders are more like 3rd-5th rounders once all of the underclassmen throw their names into the ring.

ckparrothead
12-20-2011, 02:48 PM
Just to give an opinion from an infrequent poster. I seriously think Greg Childs from Arkansas can be a major steal from the later rounds. I live in Arkansas and he was the clear cut number 1 receiver ahead of Jarius Wright and Joe Adams (both who are likely to go in the early to mid-rounds) but a year removed from his injury he just hasn't been the same. I seriously think if you can grab him in a later round, and if his rehab proves more productive than it has this year, then the fins could be in for a real surprise. Just an opinion from a biased Razorbacks fan. hah.

Even before his injury I thought he was overrated. He didn't create a lot of separation, he just made a lot of physical catches from well thrown balls by Ryan Mallett. I liked Joe Adams better then and I like Joe Adams and Jarius Wright better now, regardless of injuries or how Childs has played this year.

SMadison29
12-20-2011, 02:52 PM
I think the following SENIORS either are underrated, or one way or another I feel like they're likely to be underrated.

QB - Brandon Weeden (R2)


You can't say that Weeden is underrated. He is overrated & anyone that takes him higher than the 4th round is a fool. The primary reason... he'll be a 29 year old rookie. He's older than 16 starting QBs in the league. Nevermind that he's coming out of a spread offense where he takes the majority of his snaps from the shotgun so he'll take at least a year to develop meaning you get him from what, the age of 30 to 34/35? Not worth a 2nd round investment you think he's worth. Now if he were the standard senior QB age of 21/22 we'd be talking about a borderline first rounder.

ckparrothead
12-20-2011, 03:19 PM
You can't say that Weeden is underrated. He is overrated & anyone that takes him higher than the 4th round is a fool. The primary reason... he'll be a 29 year old rookie. He's older than 16 starting QBs in the league. Nevermind that he's coming out of a spread offense where he takes the majority of his snaps from the shotgun so he'll take at least a year to develop meaning you get him from what, the age of 30 to 34/35? Not worth a 2nd round investment you think he's worth. Now if he were the standard senior QB age of 21/22 we'd be talking about a borderline first rounder.

I can, and did. And I stand by it. But I'm not going to rehash my position on Brandon Weeden when I've already written 20,000 words on the man that more than address your concerns. If you want to know my opinion on Weeden, you can search for it.

TedSlimmJr
12-20-2011, 06:24 PM
Just to give an opinion from an infrequent poster. I seriously think Greg Childs from Arkansas can be a major steal from the later rounds. I live in Arkansas and he was the clear cut number 1 receiver ahead of Jarius Wright and Joe Adams (both who are likely to go in the early to mid-rounds) but a year removed from his injury he just hasn't been the same. I seriously think if you can grab him in a later round, and if his rehab proves more productive than it has this year, then the fins could be in for a real surprise. Just an opinion from a biased Razorbacks fan. hah.


Completely agree. Greg Childs is nowhere close to being fully healthy from the season ending knee injury he had last year.

What I like about him is he knows how to attack the football in the air when it's necessary. He doesn't wait for it like a lot of college WR's do... which results in more passes being broken up by the DB. He understands the nuances of the passing game, and how to work back towards his quarterback. He's a hands catcher with extremely strong and dependable hands.. doesn't let it get into his body.

Joe Adams is also underrated, especially with the punt return ability he adds. All 3 of Arkansas receivers have skills that stand out to me.... and they're all 3 different.

ckparrothead
12-20-2011, 11:48 PM
T.Y. Hilton is ridiculous. He moves like he's controlled by a joystick. He can jump six feet in any direction from a standing position. He IS the FIU offense, and he's just about all they need at this level of competition. Tough little bugger too. SPEED. Everyone needs it, he has it.

ckparrothead
12-20-2011, 11:52 PM
On the other hand I continue to NOT see what the fuss is about with Vinny Curry. When he's on, his vertical takeoff off the snap is impressive, can get depth in his pass rush, and he's got some strength, uses his hands OK...but he lacks agility, explosiveness, flexibility, can't redirect, gets lazy. I don't get it. Forbme he's sort of the form but no substance that Pierre Allen was last year. Courtney Upshaw BLOWS HIM AWAY.

hooshoops
12-20-2011, 11:53 PM
yeah i like hilton and while i think he's a bit more polished a player than our own edmond gates he offers a very similar package imo and so to me he's not in play for us given where we'd have to pull the trigger on him...i'm a pretty big believer that next year we're gonna see some solid returns on edmund gates...we just got to get him on the field

ckparrothead
12-21-2011, 12:00 AM
What I want to happen with Ed Gates is the same I would want to happen with Hilton if we got him. GET HIM IN THE SLOT. Quit making the slot exclusively Bess. Get Gates in there and use his speed to challenge the deep middle and the corner.

SMadison29
12-21-2011, 12:03 AM
I can, and did. And I stand by it. But I'm not going to rehash my position on Brandon Weeden when I've already written 20,000 words on the man that more than address your concerns. If you want to know my opinion on Weeden, you can search for it.

Then you probably wouldn't last too long as a GM with a blunder like that. Look what it did to Spielman wasting a second round pick on 26 year old John Beck.

WelcomeBack
12-21-2011, 12:05 AM
Comparing Beck to Weeden is foolish.

ckparrothead
12-21-2011, 12:44 AM
Then you probably wouldn't last too long as a GM with a blunder like that. Look what it did to Spielman wasting a second round pick on 26 year old John Beck.

Yes I'm sure you're the most reliable authority on how long I would last as a GM, as well as the authority on whether Brandon Weeden becomes a valuable pro. I mean, look at the incredible vision and eye for talent it took to recognize that Brandon Weeden and John Beck are practically mirror images of one another. You must be related to both Ron Wolf and Bill Walsh. I mean Brandon Weeden = John Beck...incredible, right in front of our noses the entire time, but it took a true visionary to point it out.

So alike those two...could be twins...

SMadison29
12-21-2011, 07:24 AM
Yes I'm sure you're the most reliable authority on how long I would last as a GM, as well as the authority on whether Brandon Weeden becomes a valuable pro. I mean, look at the incredible vision and eye for talent it took to recognize that Brandon Weeden and John Beck are practically mirror images of one another. You must be related to both Ron Wolf and Bill Walsh. I mean Brandon Weeden = John Beck...incredible, right in front of our noses the entire time, but it took a true visionary to point it out.

So alike those two...could be twins...


That came out meaner than I wanted CK. I didn't mean to sound like I was attacking you. However, comparing Beck to Weeden can be justified. Both are much older than normal seniors meaning less time to learn in the NFL & less time to correct any learning blocks they may incur. For instance Drew Brees & Alex Smith, they was drafted young so they had time to develop. Something Weeden won't be afforded. If he hits that two/three year block he's out of the league. Beck & Weeden both come from spread/shotgun oriented offenses that put up great numbers in college. People praised how smart Beck was yet he's never developed. Weeden's arm is much better than Beck's but Beck was more accurate. Again, anyone who takes Weeden, a one contract player, higher than the 4th round is just foolish & not a good investment. Luck, Barkley, RGIII, Tannehill, Coles, Cousins, & probably Lindley are all better, smarter picks.

ckparrothead
12-21-2011, 11:05 AM
That came out meaner than I wanted CK. I didn't mean to sound like I was attacking you. However, comparing Beck to Weeden can be justified. Both are much older than normal seniors meaning less time to learn in the NFL & less time to correct any learning blocks they may incur. For instance Drew Brees & Alex Smith, they was drafted young so they had time to develop. Something Weeden won't be afforded. If he hits that two/three year block he's out of the league. Beck & Weeden both come from spread/shotgun oriented offenses that put up great numbers in college. People praised how smart Beck was yet he's never developed. Weeden's arm is much better than Beck's but Beck was more accurate. Again, anyone who takes Weeden, a one contract player, higher than the 4th round is just foolish & not a good investment. Luck, Barkley, RGIII, Tannehill, Coles, Cousins, & probably Lindley are all better, smarter picks.

Alright I'll take a step back. We disagree on this. No I don't believe it would be "foolish" to take Weeden before the 4th round.

I think there are two ways you have to look at the age, one real issue but two questions you have to answer before you can get a full grasp on that issue.

The overarching issue is longevity. You say he's a one contract player. I don't see any real basis for that. I went back thru NFL history and showed that the 20 or so significantly talented quarterbacks (two or more pro bowls) that essentially did not begin their NFL starting careers until their late 20's, lasted in the NFL an average of about 8 years worth of games started. Some didn't last quite as long, some (like Warren Moon) lasted significantly longer (15 years, even though he came to the NFL the same age as Weeden). Many of these guys had Hall of Fame careers even though essentially they were off the football map until they were 28 years old, like Weeden.

Naturally, you (and everyone else) are going to bring up that most of these guys were either backups at the NFL level until they finally got a shot, or they were in semi-pro leagues. The one exception is Roger Staubach who was in the military and came to the NFL not having played football at all for like five years or so.

That's fine, it's a valid point to bring up, that speaks to the SECOND issue I alluded to, which is how long it takes GOOD quarterbacks to acclimate to the NFL. In other words, if we are taking it for granted that Brandon Weeden is a GOOD quarterback (which John Beck is not, never will be, and never was)...how long should it take to show that?

That's why I published another study of QBs that started as rookies and second year players. This study showed passer ratings for rookie seasons, second seasons, as well as career passer ratings. Do you know what that study found? It found that while rookie ratings did indeed come out below career ratings (indicating a rookie 'learning curve'), second season ratings approximated (actually they were higher than) career passer ratings. What this indicates is that most QBs, good or bad, are as effective in their second seasons as they generally are in their careers. This maps a learning curve that suggests that Brandon Weeden (or any other QB) should be expected to be at or close to full speed by their second year in the NFL.

Furthermore you look anecdotally at the guys that are commonly accepted to be franchise starters, that started as rookies. About half (or actually more, if you count Dalton and Newton this year), were already very good as rookies. Ben Roehlisberger was. Joe Flacco was. Jay Cutler and Matt Ryan as well. Now you add Andy Dalton and Cam Newton to the mix, and the picture you have painted is one where we are no longer in an NFL where rookie quarterbacks have slim chance of success. Note that Dalton, Newton and Flacco did not have college experiences/offenses that prepared them for the pros. But they show that IF QBs are destined to be franchise caliber players, half of them (or more) are going to show it even during their rookie seasons. Those that don't are still far more likely than not to show it by their second seasons.

Drew Brees and Eli Manning are the exceptions, not the rule. And as far as Drew Brees is concerned, lets just say i more than suspect Brian Schottenheimer had a little something to do with his unusually slow progress. I notice Schottenheimer is now associated with yet another talented quarterback whose learning process is going along at a crawl, whereas most other franchise guys are up to speed by year two. And I'm not counting Alex Smith because I don't think he's a franchise caliber player and one good season among half a dozen mediocre or terrible ones does not make a success story.

What I'm getting at, again, is the expectation for the length of Weeden's career. You have to remember that the #1 reason guys don't start football games is talent, not age. You can see that just in the study of guys who didn't begin their careers until their late 20's. Guys who only went to one pro bowl in their career started 20 fewer games than guys that went to multiple Pro Bowls. So IF YOU HAVE THE TALENT QUESTION ANSWERED about Brandon Weeden, you have a valid expectation that he plays 8 seasons for you, AT LEAST 7 of which will be as good as his total career.

And let me ask you this. If you take a tailback in the 1st, 2nd or 3rd round...do you expect any more than that? Do you honestly expect more than 8 years of service, with at least 7 of them being good years? HELL NO YOU DON'T. You're actually lucky if you get 7 or 8 good years out of a tailback. They generally peak by their 2nd/3rd years in the NFL and then slowly decline.

A good quarterback has a much higher impact on the game than a good tailback. So if you would take a tailback in the 1st or 2nd round knowing full well that even if he's real good, you don't expect more than 6 good years out of him before you cut him loose...then I have no earthly clue why age alone is causing you to cap a quarterback at a 4th rounder. It makes no sense. It's irrational, which is common in the Draft...just look at all the teams that continue to trade future 1st/2nd round picks to Bill Belichick for present 2nd/3rd rounders. That's also irrational, but it keeps happening anyway.

The PRIMARY question with Brandon Weeden is TALENT. You say that Beck is more accurate. I disagree with that, especially accuracy at depth with velocity. But if you just do not see a talented player in Brandon Weeden, that's fine. I'll stand by my opinion of Weeden's talent, as well as my record of evaluating quarterbacks. Yes there have been misses. I've been wrong about QBs before and i am sure i will be wrong again. But there have been a LOT more hits than misses.

rent this space
12-21-2011, 12:03 PM
going to a team like the Dolphins that already has weapons in place would be ideal for Weeden. He could start early and be successful in a situation like this

SMadison29
12-21-2011, 03:02 PM
What I'm getting at, again, is the expectation for the length of Weeden's career. You have to remember that the #1 reason guys don't start football games is talent, not age. You can see that just in the study of guys who didn't begin their careers until their late 20's. Guys who only went to one pro bowl in their career started 20 fewer games than guys that went to multiple Pro Bowls. So IF YOU HAVE THE TALENT QUESTION ANSWERED about Brandon Weeden, you have a valid expectation that he plays 8 seasons for you, AT LEAST 7 of which will be as good as his total career.

Lets say Weeden makes it through his first contract of four years at which he'll be 33, look at the number of starting QBs in the league today that are 33: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees (in Jan) Carson Palmer (in a week), & Matt Hasselbeck. That's a pretty special group there. Three elite QBs, one extremely good QB, & another that's just barely hanging on to his starting spot. Are you willing to take a chance in the second round that he'll be one of these QBs? And that's just to age 33. Stretching his career out to seven years as you suggest will make him 36. Only Matt Hasselbeck is 36 & starting in the league, & again not for much longer. There's not many QBs that can continue to start & excel at that age. I know I don't have to list the QBs for you but we're talking Marino, Favre, Young, Elway, Warner, Moon, Gannon... All HOF QBs aside from Gannon. Their bodies & arms start to go. It's not like five/six years Weeden was away from football he was studying holistic medecine. He was firing fastball & curveballs putting a lot of torque on his arm to the point he had shoulder issues & had to give up baseball.

Ck we'll have to agree to disagree. I like him as a QB but his age is going to prevent him from being taken in the first two days of the draft.

Kdawg954
12-21-2011, 04:33 PM
Brandon Weeden can flat out throw the ball. I don't think it is fair to say he "wouldn't" be worth a 2nd rounder, especially since we don't know who is available on the board when we pick at this moment. I think if he is the most talented and most ready to start QB available when we pick in round 2, you damn well better think long and hard about taking him.

My theory on Weeden is: A. As Dolfans, we would be FOOLISH to expect the next coming of Marino out of any of these guys B. We would be FOOLISH to think we are going another 10 years, let along another 30 w/o drafting a QB in the first round.

Fact is, Miami needs to grow a sack, evaluate ALL of the quarterbacks and take the best one. Persue all options, if it means trading up in the first, trade up, if it means trading up from the 2nd round into the first, do it . . . but get the guy you covet.

You can't say if Weeden comes out slanging the rock that it was a mistake to take him at the age of 29. I'm sorry, it doesn't work like that. And NO GM should be punished for taking a QB in the 2nd round even if he is older. Eddie Moore, Matt Roth, injured DC, Beck, Merling, Henne, Pat White, Samson Satele, Misi, Daniel Thomas . . . . . not really LIGHTING up those 2nd rounders in the past 8 years . . . if Weeden is the best thrower of the football, you take him and if he doesn't have it, you pick another one as soon as you know he doesn't. Not drafting QB's has haunted this team for too long, and personally, I'm tired of the excuses.

Even if you only got 5 solid years out of Weeden, that would be better than any one of those picks I listed over the last 8 years. If you like him, take him . . . Ireland needs to make his own rules instead of worrying about what other will think about him drafting an older QB. Grow a sack Jeff and make it happen.

Fin Thirteen
12-22-2011, 12:25 PM
I don't think a lot of people realize this. They don't realize how much more important a quality TE is as opposed to a "#1" receiver.

The key is having TWO good tight ends, but that complement one another. They have to be different. The teams who run the multiple TE sets (Packers, Patriots, Texans, etc.) are the most successful teams in the league. Even the Panthers have done this in order to help Cam Newon with Shockey and Olson.

Bill Belichek is a genius. He saw the trend developing in the NFL where most of the teams were making the transition to a base 3-4 defense, so he started implementing the 2-TE set.

The multiple TE set negates a lot of what the 3-4 defense can do with their rush OLB's. If the defense sends out pass personnel trying to matchup with your TE's from a coverage standpoint (Nickel package, extra DB, etc.) you can run on them out of the 2-TE set. If they stay in their base personnel, they can't match up with Gronkoski or Hernandez in coverage with linebackers. The defense has no answer either way.

The key is having an athletic mismatch like Hernandez who you can split out wide and get isolated on a linebacker or safety in coverage. Basically function as a wide receiver for you matched up in space one-on-one. Combined with having a monster like Gronk who can stay in and block as an in-line TE to negate the rush 3-4 OLB's, or make them look silly trying to cover him.

The weak points of any defense, I don't care what coverage you're running, is up the seams. It's a major coaching point that Saban has always stressed to his defense. The way you control the seams and force safeties to play you honest is with a seam stretching TE. You attack it the same, you just switch up how many vertical stretches you want to run depending on what coverage the defense likes to play. You can do it out of 21-personnel, 11-personnel, 10-personnel, etc.

Coby Fleener is the 6'6", 250 pound seem stretching type TE that Miami needs in order to get more production out of a guy like Fasano.... the same way David Martin helped him. Charles Clay is your H-back who lines up off-set from the line of scrimmage in order to get a clean release.

A "#1" receiver is too easy to double cover and take out of the game if you don't have the tight end capable of making safeties play you honest up the seam.

Totally agree. I think Ladarius Green is going to be a steal for someone. He'll probably go late second to late third and that's good value for a kid who has all the tools to be a receiving TE in the NFL.

Fin Thirteen
12-22-2011, 12:35 PM
T.Y. Hilton is ridiculous. He moves like he's controlled by a joystick. He can jump six feet in any direction from a standing position. He IS the FIU offense, and he's just about all they need at this level of competition. Tough little bugger too. SPEED. Everyone needs it, he has it.

Totally agree with this. Guy is sooo fluid it's ridiculous.

mnphinfan
12-22-2011, 01:00 PM
What I want to happen with Ed Gates is the same I would want to happen with Hilton if we got him. GET HIM IN THE SLOT. Quit making the slot exclusively Bess. Get Gates in there and use his speed to challenge the deep middle and the corner.

It kills me to see that he isn't used like this. Just once I would like to see him motion from the outside receiver on the left of the QB to the slot receiver to the right of the QB or vice versa. It would give him a free release off the line and he would probably have a slower nickel CB, S or if we are really lucky a LB trying to keep up with him. It was excatly how Pitt used Wallace when he was still raw and how they are now using Brown. I just don't understand our offensive philosophy with Gates and why they don't do a good enough job using his speed to attack the middle seams of the opponents D.

ckparrothead
12-22-2011, 01:02 PM
About Brandon Weeden...there is a lot of misinformation out there about his shoulder injuries that 'forced' him to quit baseball.

Suffice it to say a lot of that information is false so buyer beware if you're trying to take it as gospel and use it as a reason not to draft him.

He's told me privately exactly what happened with the shoulder. I trust that he's not lying to me.

mnphinfan
12-22-2011, 01:38 PM
About Brandon Weeden...there is a lot of misinformation out there about his shoulder injuries that 'forced' him to quit baseball.

Suffice it to say a lot of that information is false so buyer beware if you're trying to take it as gospel and use it as a reason not to draft him.

He's told me privately exactly what happened with the shoulder. I trust that he's not lying to me.

Not an NFL insider my ***, keep living the dream CK!

What round do you think he'll go? I see a QB hungry team who missed out on Luck, Barkley or Griffen possibly trading back up to the end of the first or taking him in the 2nd. He is just to talented/doesn't have the baggage to last until the 3rd round.

ckparrothead
12-22-2011, 01:46 PM
Not an NFL insider my ***, keep living the dream CK!

What round do you think he'll go? I see a QB hungry team who missed out on Luck, Barkley or Griffen possibly trading back up to the end of the first or taking him in the 2nd. He is just to talented/doesn't have the baggage to last until the 3rd round.

Put a gun to my head and I'll say the 2nd round. But if Barkley, Griffin, and Landry Jones all go back to school as Tony Pauline is reporting, depending on what Brock Osweiler and Tyler Wilson decide...the 1st round becomes a possibility.