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View Full Version : Top 15 draft order as of 12/24/2011 - two games pending



datruth55
12-24-2011, 09:06 PM
1. 2-13 Indianapolis SOS .534
2. 2-13 St. Louis SOS .584
3. 3-12 Minnesota SOS .560
4. 4-11 Jacksonville SOS .504
5. 4-11 Cleveland SOS .529
6. 4-11 Tampa Bay SOS .551
7. 5-10 Washington SOS .475
8. 5-10 Miami SOS .513
9. 6-9 Carolina SOS .500
10. 6-9 Buffalo SOS .517 (Coin flip with Kansas City)
11. 6-9 Kansas City SOS .517 (Coin flip with Buffalo)
12. 7-8 Arizona SOS .475
13. 7-8 Philadelphia SOS .492
14. 7-8 Seattle SOS .508
15. 7-8 San Diego SOS .517

OK, the bad news is unless Washington wins and we lose next week we're not moving up. The good news is that even if we win next week and Buffalo, Carolina and Kansas City lose the worst we'll be picking is 9th. In all likelihood we stay right where we are.

NewCoachPlease
12-24-2011, 09:20 PM
If Cleveland or TB win next week according to this SOS and we lose then wouldn't we move up 2 spots there? It looks like the highest according to this is 5th if TB, Clev, and Wash win and we lose. The lowest looks like 9 assuming the SOS doesn't change.

datruth55
12-24-2011, 09:40 PM
Yes they would drop below us provided we lose but seeing as how Cleveland is playing Pitt at 1:00 PM and Baltimore is also playing at 1:00 PM there is no chance Pitt goes into that game to rest their players with a first round bye and division on the line. Baltimore is playing Cincy who is trying to clinch a playoff berth as well. Tampa Bay is at Atlanta who may rest their players if they beat New Orleans Monday night...not likely since the Saints are playing for a bye as well.

Pretty much, for the first time in forever, every top team has something to play for this weekend. The only team that will have homefield sown up next week is Green Bay if they win tomorrow night which is very likely.

It doesn't look good for us moving up but I suppose there are scenarios where we can move up.

Stefins
12-24-2011, 11:09 PM
I STILL WANT TO BEAT THE jest

houtz
12-24-2011, 11:24 PM
Yep win a meaningless game against a team who has absolutely no realistic chance at winning the Super Bowl.

Lose and let the Jets have a snowball's chance in hell of making the playoffs. With the slight chance they do get in, we all know they're not winning the Super Bowl. Especially with jabber jaws running the show and the Sanchise. If only he could play QB as well as he circles High Schools searching for his next victim.

miami234ever
12-24-2011, 11:54 PM
Washington could potentially beat Philadelphia next week, but after seeing them today who knows what to expect from them. Cleveland @ Pitt seems very difficult, but Cleveland has shown in the past to upset teams when least expected. Tampa did beat Atlanta the first game, but both teams are completely different this time around. Still hoping for the 5th pick...Oh yea, and Indy MUST win or it doesn't matter where we pick (5-8).

hooshoops
12-25-2011, 12:01 AM
doubt washington will beat philly...those de's will have a field day in that wide 9 look...that team gets up and unleashes those edge rushers and you are toast...toast

anyways...whats the worst position we can fall to if we beat the jets next week???

Nublar7
12-25-2011, 12:44 AM
doubt washington will beat philly...those de's will have a field day in that wide 9 look...that team gets up and unleashes those edge rushers and you are toast...toast

anyways...whats the worst position we can fall to if we beat the jets next week???10th

ckparrothead
12-25-2011, 03:38 AM
On the subject of Miami's draft order, it boils down to this:

If we win next week: #8 to #10 overall, most likely #9 overall
If we lose next week: #5 to #8 overall, most likely #7 overall

----------5 Win Scenarios----------
The Packers and Saints are heavily favored in this weekend's remaining games. If they both win then the Falcons are locked in as the #6 seed. They SHOULD treat their Week 17 game against the Buccaneers as a bye, using the opportunity to rest all their starters and keep focused on their wildcard rematch versus the Saints. The impact of this is, if the Dolphins are a 5-win team and the Buccaneers beat the Falcons' backups in Week 17, then Miami moves up a slot based on strength of schedule.

The Eagles just got eliminated from the playoffs. Once that sinks in, they could be in for a letdown week against the Redskins. If they lose, and Miami is a 5-win team, then the Dolphins move up another notch as the Redskins become a 6-win team.

The Steelers could find out as early as halftime of their Week 17 game against the Browns that the Ravens are housing the Cincinnati Bengals. If that happens, Mike Tomlin could choose to pull starters during the second half against the Browns. The Browns are playing pretty tough with Seneca Wallace at QB. If that happens and the Browns win, and Miami is a 5-win team, then the Dolphins move up another notch based on a strength of schedule advantage over the Browns.


----------6 Win Scenarios----------
There are 11 teams with 6 wins or fewer in the NFL. This would lead some to believe the Dolphins could pick as low as #11 overall if they beat the Jets next week. Not true. The Dolphins have sealed a strength of schedule advantage over the Buffalo Bills, if they should find themselves tied as 6-win teams. This means the latest Miami could pick as a 6-win team is #10 overall.

The Carolina Panthers are red hot right now. If I were a playoff team, any playoff team, I wouldn't want to face them. The Saints have the misfortune of facing them in Week 17. If they win against the Falcons this Monday (Saints favored by 7) then they'd be tied with the 49ers for the bye week, but the 49ers having the tiebreak advantage. The 49ers play the Rams in Week 17. Knowing that they have to win the game in order to keep the bye, good luck thinking the 49ers actually come even close to losing versus the hapless Rams. They could be housing the Rams by half time. If that's the case the Saints have nothing to play for in the second half against the Panthers, arguably knowing before the game even starts that they likely have nothing to play for. I think that puts the ball in the Panthers' court as being the favorite to win this game in this scenario. If the Dolphins are a 6-win team and have defeated the Jets, and the Panthers win here, then this bumps Miami ahead a notch from #10 to #9.

The Denver Broncos have now lost two games in a row by more than three scores each, and this quasi-religious mystique that they and Tim Tebow have had going for them has most definitely faded. They face a Kansas City Chiefs team next week that has been rejuvenated under Romeo Crennel. They suffered a crushing defeat at the hands of the Raiders this week thanks to two blocked field goals. Not unlike the Eagles, their final playoff hopes have just been finally dashed. But the difference here is instead of playing a team that has been playing for nothing but pride for months now and has begun to play teams real tough (talking about the Redskins), they're playing a team that until two weeks ago was considered a lock for the playoffs and now seems to have zero control over their own precipitous slide. The Broncos are a deer in headlights and if anyone can continue to find the magic formula that makes Tim Tebow look like the embarrassment to quarterbacking that many see him as, I think it's Romeo Crennel. If the Dolphins are a 6-win team then a Chiefs victory would bump Miami ahead of the Chiefs, potentially moving them from #10 to #9 or from #9 to #8 depending on what happened with the Saints-Panthers game.

ckparrothead
12-25-2011, 03:47 AM
Honestly what ever is going to happen next weekend is going to happen. Whether we cheer one way or another doesn't matter. There could literally be zero difference in our draft standing based on whether we beat the Jets or lose to them. If the Falcons beat the Buccaneers, the Panthers beat the Saints, the Chiefs beat the Broncos, the Steelers stomp the Browns and the Eagles stomp the Redskins...then that's exactly what would happen. We could lose to the Jets and pick #8 overall, or we could beat the Jets and we'd still pick #8 overall.

But on the other hand, you could be looking a #5 to #10 overall swing, based on whether we beat the Jets or not. If the Browns surprise the Steelers (in part because the Steelers stopped playing, knowing they have nothing to play for), the Redskins upset a deflated Eagles team that just found out they're eliminated, the Buccaneers beat the Falcons' backups, the Panthers lose to a Saints team that is still trying to get a bye week and for whatever reason doesn't feel out of that hunt yet, and the Broncos beat the Chiefs to clinch a division title...then that's what you're looking at. If the Dolphins lose to the Jets they're #5 overall, but if they beat the Jets they're #10 overall. That's a big swing. That kind of swing could take you from contending for Andrew Luck in trade, to not even being party to the talks.

So if it behooves you to cheer your heart out for the Dolphins because you don't want the Jets in the playoffs...that's fine. Personally I think the Jets may not make it regardless of whether we beat them or not. The Chargers have just been eliminated from the playoffs and there are now rumors of secret interviews with Bill Cowher, even a rumor that Jeff Fisher was spotted on their sideline before the game today. They could fire Norv Turner this week and then they could end up playing very deflated next week against the Raiders. The 9-7 Raiders would have a tiebreak advantage over the 9-7 Jets, I believe. As would the 9-7 Titans if they beat a Texans team that's lost two in a row and just became the first 10 win team in the history of the NFL to lose to a 1 win team.

hooshoops
12-25-2011, 10:46 AM
And Houston is locked into the 3 seed so they may not care against Tennessee...uphill climb for the jets even if they win I would say

ckparrothead
12-25-2011, 12:25 PM
Unfortunately I think Houston does care after dropping two straight. They're going to play their starters, including Andre Johnson, because they want to make sure they've got the offense back on track as they head into the playoffs. They need to head into the playoffs with some momentum.

I should revise on the ATL/TAM thing. ATL will have clinched the #6 or #5 seed in the event that the Packers and Saints win this weekend. But I assume the opportunity to treat Week 17 like a bye week, resting your starters and foregoing the game planning effort so that you can spend two weeks game planning against the Saints...would be more valuable to them than clinching home field in the unlikely event that the #5 and #6 seeds meet in the NFC Championship Game.

If the Packers beat the Bears tonight then they'll have clinched home field throughout the playoffs, along with the bye. They'll have no reason to play hard in Week 17 against the Lions. So if I'm the Falcons I do treat Week 17 like a bye week, and I wouldn't even be coy about it. I wouldn't even game plan heavily against the Bucs because I would be busy game planning my Wildcard re-match with the Saints. The chances are just too small that the Packers' backups actually beat the Lions, and that the Falcons end up appreciating the home field advantage over the Lions in the NFC Championship Game.

JEDIJ007
12-25-2011, 12:45 PM
i knew some of the useless wins would hurt our draft position. This team stinks, they can't even lose correctly.

nyashfan
12-25-2011, 01:20 PM
CK, I would expect that Atlanta would be motivated to earn the #5 seed. Should they lose to the Saints, I'm sure they would much rather play the NFC East winner than have to play again at New Orleans. Since they beat Detroit they own the tiebreaker with them and Detroit has a tough game with Green Bay, even if it is Matt Flynn starting at QB.


Unfortunately I think Houston does care after dropping two straight. They're going to play their starters, including Andre Johnson, because they want to make sure they've got the offense back on track as they head into the playoffs. They need to head into the playoffs with some momentum.

I should revise on the ATL/TAM thing. ATL will have clinched the #6 or #5 seed in the event that the Packers and Saints win this weekend. But I assume the opportunity to treat Week 17 like a bye week, resting your starters and foregoing the game planning effort so that you can spend two weeks game planning against the Saints...would be more valuable to them than clinching home field in the unlikely event that the #5 and #6 seeds meet in the NFC Championship Game.

If the Packers beat the Bears tonight then they'll have clinched home field throughout the playoffs, along with the bye. They'll have no reason to play hard in Week 17 against the Lions. So if I'm the Falcons I do treat Week 17 like a bye week, and I wouldn't even be coy about it. I wouldn't even game plan heavily against the Bucs because I would be busy game planning my Wildcard re-match with the Saints. The chances are just too small that the Packers' backups actually beat the Lions, and that the Falcons end up appreciating the home field advantage over the Lions in the NFC Championship Game.