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dolfanduwayne63
01-16-2012, 09:38 PM
Just wondering if any of you think we would be just as well off, or maybe even better off, dropping back a few picks and picking Ryan Tanehill vs., giving up so much to move up and get RGIII. Supposedly Tannehill is as intelligent as RGIII, he has very good athleticism and a good arm to make the throws. I know he needs some developement, but this very well could be the case with RGIII as well. If you feel he could become the QB we need, would standing pat or sliding back make more sense due to the picks you would keep.

Valandui
01-16-2012, 09:45 PM
Tannehill all the way.

Harry_Bagpipe
01-16-2012, 09:51 PM
Tannehill all the way.

You ever see that movie contact? You remind me of the matthew mogonehy character who played a man of god but was always chasing chicks around too because he couldn't do the celibacy thing. Lol. I see the chaplain badge and all the hot chick sigs so it made me think of him

Edit. Lol and all the metal tunes.

TedSlimmJr
01-16-2012, 10:05 PM
I've always had Tannehill as the better NFL quarterback prospect to begin with. I haven't seen a college quarterback yet that throws the intermediate and deep outs with as much velocity, accuracy, and anticipation as Tannehill. I've seen him do it over and over again against Patrick Peterson and a top notch LSU defense. Doesn't throw the deep ball as well as Robert III, but Tannehill was running a pure WCO under Mike Sherman.

I have legitimate concerns about RG3 as a legitimate long term starting quarterback in the NFL. Not the least of which is his ability to function properly and see the field well enough to work the middle of the field from inside the confines of an NFL pocket.

I would enjoy taking on a project like RG3 if he is indeed dedicated to an NFL career. However, the fact that I view him as such a project prohibits me from giving him a 1st round grade, much less a top 10 grade.

I've always felt good about RG3 as a 2nd round prospect in the 40-50 range. I've always liked Tannehill as late 1st round/early 2nd round prospect. His footwork dropping back and taking snaps from under center is far more refined than RG3's. Tannehill's issues are slight mechanical tweaks that a good QB coach should fix within his first few weeks of camp (get his throwing elbow up to where it's consistently above his shoulder).

Neither needs to be thrown in right away, and they would both be better off to sit behind a veteran for a season. Despite Tannehill's lack of starting experience, he's the one that's closer to being NFL ready in my opinion. He's only scratched the surface of his upside playing the quarterback position.

dolfanduwayne63
01-16-2012, 10:34 PM
Thanks Slimm, great post and I've got to say you give some of the most in depth analysis of draft prospects I've seen on a message board. I also enjoy CK and DKphins work and all you guys know your stuff. Of course being from Bama helps you LOL.

sinPHIN
01-17-2012, 12:56 AM
rg3 is more accurated and has is great above the shoulders. tannehill has a ton of potential, but lacks in accuracy. tannehill would be better pick up in the long run if we picked him up in the 2nd and got a great staff to help him out with mechanics like slimm said.
but i wouldnt grab tannehill above the 2nd esp since his medical issue now, plus he needs work and sit behind someone a year or two.
rg3 would be a good pick up if he fell to us at 8 or 9, im now not wanting to trade up for him anymore.
if we take a qb in the 2nd it better be tannehill, weeden would not be worth it

KingDolphin57
01-17-2012, 10:51 AM
Watching Tannehill this year I didn't come away that impressed. I mean he has the size but is still learning the Qb position becuz of his time at receiver. Accuracy needs to improve. But was smart enough to know to get the ball to Fuller. Borderline late first to second round project Qb and is not close to being the prospect that RG3 is.

j-off-her-doll
01-17-2012, 11:03 AM
Slimm, not to ask a question that answers itself, but given our need for a franchise QB and the fact that we have a plug-in QB (in M. Moore) who can function as our starter for another season, would you consider reaching for Tannehill (I'm assuming we won't be able to get him if we trade down - hearing about this rising stock)?

finsfanjay13
01-17-2012, 11:51 AM
I would go with Tannehill.

Valandui
01-17-2012, 03:18 PM
RG3 is way more of a project than Tannehill is. If not for the Heisman and Cam Newton, no way is he considered the second best QB in the draft.

KingDolphin57
01-17-2012, 03:40 PM
RG3 is way more of a project than Tannehill is. If not for the Heisman and Cam Newton, no way is he considered the second best QB in the draft. Lol. Don't forget The Davey Obrien award. So why did he win that? Let's be real here Rg3 has earned those awards and Tannehill was never in the running. No matter how you spin it RG3>Tannehill . That's like saying the only reason Luck is the # 1 pic is becuz of Mannings success . Someone just doesnt like RG3.

MadDog 88
01-17-2012, 04:12 PM
I would much rather see the Dolphins trade down and get Tannehill. I like RGIII but with the possibility of Cleveland and Washington bidding on that number 2 pick, the cost will probably be ridiculously high and he is not worth it.

Slimm, how badly does Tanehills injury effect his draft status?

Valandui
01-17-2012, 05:22 PM
Lol. Don't forget The Davey Obrien award. So why did he win that? Let's be real here Rg3 has earned those awards and Tannehill was never in the running. No matter how you spin it RG3>Tannehill . That's like saying the only reason Luck is the # 1 pic is becuz of Mannings success . Someone just doesnt like RG3.
So did Troy Smith and Tim Tebow. They both won Heismans too. Neither is an franchise QB.

3rdandinches
01-17-2012, 08:13 PM
Lol. Don't forget The Davey Obrien award. So why did he win that? Let's be real here Rg3 has earned those awards and Tannehill was never in the running. No matter how you spin it RG3>Tannehill . That's like saying the only reason Luck is the # 1 pic is becuz of Mannings success . Someone just doesnt like RG3.

What does winning college awards mean in regards to such player being an elite player in the NFL. Plenty of dominant college players (especially QB's) don't even sniff a NFL career.

TedSlimmJr
01-17-2012, 08:26 PM
Slimm, not to ask a question that answers itself, but given our need for a franchise QB and the fact that we have a plug-in QB (in M. Moore) who can function as our starter for another season, would you consider reaching for Tannehill (I'm assuming we won't be able to get him if we trade down - hearing about this rising stock)?


Probably not. I've never subscribed to the theory of drafting players based off how somebody else may or may not perceive their stock. I'm drafting players based off how I view them as prospects, and the subsequent grade I give.

I'd rather let a player's "stock" eventually settle where ever it's going to settle. "Stock" is an arbitrary term used to dictate money, and it's usually driven by agents (see Blaine Gabbert and Tom Condon, etc.) On the other hand, prospect's 'stock' rises and falls as scouts dig deeper into the film.

If I've given a kid a grade, it's because I've seen enough of him to feel pretty good about the grade I've given him. I'll let his "stock" catch up to what mine was to begin with.


Furthermore, I'm positive I'll like talent better at another position in the top 10 that will prevent me from reaching that far on Tannehill. I'm not reaching in the top 10, period. I'm taking an elite prospect, or as close to it as I can get with a top 10 pick. Not to mention, Tannehill isn't the only quarterback I like. I'd be just as happy with Ryan Lindley or Brandon Weeden in the 2nd/3rd rounds.

There's no telling which one of Lindley, Tannehill, or Weeden ends up the best quarterback in the long run. I think each one has just as good a shot as the other. The deciding factor is most likely going to come down to which one gets placed in the best situation.

Awsi Dooger
01-19-2012, 01:15 AM
Big 12 quarterbacks scare the heck out of me in general. That league pays no attention to pass defense, other than Texas, which makes a moderate attempt. It's been that way for 4-5 years minimum. I remember salivating to bet against the Big 12 in 2008 bowl games, after the league demonstrated the most inept group pass defense I'd seen in more than 2 decades of charting the stat nationally.

The Big 12 can get away with it because the vast majority of the nation no longer attacks short passes. Bubble screens waltz uncontested for 8-12 yards and the Big 12 was the first to grasp that it's like stealing. Throw them all day and when the safeties finally over commit, shoulder fake and drop a cheap lob over their head. That's 50% of the playbook for many Big 12 attacks. It can reach absurdity at times, the Big 12 quarterback so dependent on that approach they are offended when it's denied. Last season I was in hysterics during Baylor's bowl debacle against Illinois. Griffin threw the same bubble screens that he'd relied on all season and Illinois would have none of it. They butchered the plays for minimal gain or losses. At one point early in the game Griffin was so shook up by the unfair defensive tactics he threw an immediate screen that turned into a lateral. Illinois picked up the ball and ran it deep into Baylor territory. Griffin chased down the defender, tackled him by the headgear, and intentionally bumped him in the chest when both rose to their feet. Don't you understand you are supposed to leave my cute little bubble pass alone? It reminded me of Sam Bradford's stunned facial expressions when Florida wiped out short yardage bubble screens on vital plays during the 2008 BCS title game.

IMO, it's simply too much of an adjustment for a Big 12 quarterback to transition from picking on terrorized simplistic college defenses to life in the NFL. I suppose the law of averages will attach someday and a Big 12 quarterback will meet or exceed his draft ranking. But right now I'm content to downgrade all of them. Hasn't let me down recently. It's similar to Big 12 teams asked to face a top SEC defense, which destroy short passes. Check the pass defense stats this season. Alabama, South Carolina, LSU and Georgia were the top four, the only teams in the country to hold opponents below 100 passer rating. Hardly a coincidence that league dominates. Rutgers was fifth. It was hilarious to watch them toy with Big 12 Iowa State's short passing game as underdog in the bowl, thank you very much. Too darn bad Griffin was allowed to play a cupcake retreating Washington defense in this year's bowl, and not an SEC mauler.

Granted, Texas A&M and Tannehill didn't abuse the cheap short junk to the degree of the rest of the league. That may have been Sherman's undoing. Oklahoma State started the third quarter of that game with one relentless bubble screen after another. Alabama would have chewed them up and battered Weeden. A&M watched and caved.

Tannehill looks the part and makes some great pro style throws. I don't knock or discount Tannehill as much as I doubt Griffin will live up to his current billing. Notice I refuse to call him by the shorty nickname, which undoubtedly is partial cause for his popularity. Somehow it became fashionable to scrutinize Andrew Luck at every turn and whisper he's overrated, while Griffin is allowed to fall behind Oklahoma State 49-3 and woeful Kansas 24-3 but nobody says a word. The marquee win on another team's home field this season was 1 point in overtime at Kansas. Griffin won the Heisman almost solely due to the friendly schedule, no road games in the final weeks.

In those road games he's more likely to show off his dependable flaws, like turning his head when pressured up the middle, losing sight of receivers while frantically flailing sideways, often with the ball at waist level. Super hero types don't like annoying disturbance up the middle. Might soil the socks. Griffin is a video game type and I'm not confident he'll handle adversity well in the NFL. In the old NFL I'd scream it. In Tutu Goodell's pantyhose NFL admittedly you can't discount anybody who will work at it a moderate amount. In the Oklahoma State game Griffin threw a tantrum during the first half, after a botched play near the goal line. On another site weeks ago I posted that Griffin is a candidate for a Woody Hayes moment in the NFL. That might be an overstatement but I don't buy him as a cool customer. Unlike many fans who became aware of Griffin this season I've bet his games for years. Heck, he started from early 2008. Griffin whined many times, like twice after losses to Connecticut. I think he's a fair weather player in what has been a fair weather bubble screen league. Luck is the most solid guy imaginable, as witnessed by his comments after being denied the Heisman for a second straight year. Put Griffin in Luck's spot and I can almost guarantee some bitterness would have spilled, and been debated.

Griffin throws a lovely deep ball, no denying that. Dropped from the ceiling. But his release lengthens considerably on those throws and occasionally he can't get them off when pressured. The guy is asked to drop back and decipher the middle of the field perhaps 4-5 times per game. Everything else is based off the bubble screen-type plays, slants, and pump and go.

Here's a preseason evaluation of Robert Griffin:

http://tommeltonscouting.wordpress.com/2011/07/10/pre-season-scouting-report-robert-griffin-qb-baylor/

I love preseason ratings, particularly for betting purposes, because they are an absolute gold mine. Everything tends to drift back to the beginning. My bowl betting system based on preseason ratings had another big year. In this case Griffin might be better than this guy's assessment, and he later updated it. But it's incredibly foolish to dismiss all the troubling aspects. I warned when we drafted Ronnie Brown that you couldn't obsess over the final games of his career, and combine numbers, while ignoring that great running backs by definition don't become 5th year seniors, players who were rated 2nd round until late their final year. The same holds true for Griffin. This is hardly a huge physical freak like Cam Newton, who I would have traded the world for. Newton started one season and became a revelation. Griffin is a long term known quantity who played early as a freshman and stayed in the lineup other than injury early as a sophomore. In fairness, although Griffin is hardly instinctive in the pocket and gives up far too many cheap sacks for an athlete of his caliber, he improved his escapability and downfield running confidence as this season progressed. After the 2009 injury he was noticeably gun shy in 2010.

TedSlimmJr
01-19-2012, 08:38 AM
Big 12 quarterbacks scare the heck out of me in general. That league pays no attention to pass defense, other than Texas, which makes a moderate attempt. It's been that way for 4-5 years minimum. I remember salivating to bet against the Big 12 in 2008 bowl games, after the league demonstrated the most inept group pass defense I'd seen in more than 2 decades of charting the stat nationally.

The Big 12 can get away with it because the vast majority of the nation no longer attacks short passes. Bubble screens waltz uncontested for 8-12 yards and the Big 12 was the first to grasp that it's like stealing. Throw them all day and when the safeties finally over commit, shoulder fake and drop a cheap lob over their head. That's 50% of the playbook for many Big 12 attacks. It can reach absurdity at times, the Big 12 quarterback so dependent on that approach they are offended when it's denied. Last season I was in hysterics during Baylor's bowl debacle against Illinois. Griffin threw the same bubble screens that he'd relied on all season and Illinois would have none of it. They butchered the plays for minimal gain or losses. At one point early in the game Griffin was so shook up by the unfair defensive tactics he threw an immediate screen that turned into a lateral. Illinois picked up the ball and ran it deep into Baylor territory. Griffin chased down the defender, tackled him by the headgear, and intentionally bumped him in the chest when both rose to their feet. Don't you understand you are supposed to leave my cute little bubble pass alone? It reminded me of Sam Bradford's stunned facial expressions when Florida wiped out short yardage bubble screens on vital plays during the 2008 BCS title game.

IMO, it's simply too much of an adjustment for a Big 12 quarterback to transition from picking on terrorized simplistic college defenses to life in the NFL. I suppose the law of averages will attach someday and a Big 12 quarterback will meet or exceed his draft ranking. But right now I'm content to downgrade all of them. Hasn't let me down recently. It's similar to Big 12 teams asked to face a top SEC defense, which destroy short passes. Check the pass defense stats this season. Alabama, South Carolina, LSU and Georgia were the top four, the only teams in the country to hold opponents below 100 passer rating. Hardly a coincidence that league dominates. Rutgers was fifth. It was hilarious to watch them toy with Big 12 Iowa State's short passing game as underdog in the bowl, thank you very much. Too darn bad Griffin was allowed to play a cupcake retreating Washington defense in this year's bowl, and not an SEC mauler.

Granted, Texas A&M and Tannehill didn't abuse the cheap short junk to the degree of the rest of the league. That may have been Sherman's undoing. Oklahoma State started the third quarter of that game with one relentless bubble screen after another. Alabama would have chewed them up and battered Weeden. A&M watched and caved.

Tannehill looks the part and makes some great pro style throws. I don't knock or discount Tannehill as much as I doubt Griffin will live up to his current billing. Notice I refuse to call him by the shorty nickname, which undoubtedly is partial cause for his popularity. Somehow it became fashionable to scrutinize Andrew Luck at every turn and whisper he's overrated, while Griffin is allowed to fall behind Oklahoma State 49-3 and woeful Kansas 24-3 but nobody says a word. The marquee win on another team's home field this season was 1 point in overtime at Kansas. Griffin won the Heisman almost solely due to the friendly schedule, no road games in the final weeks.

In those road games he's more likely to show off his dependable flaws, like turning his head when pressured up the middle, losing sight of receivers while frantically flailing sideways, often with the ball at waist level. Super hero types don't like annoying disturbance up the middle. Might soil the socks. Griffin is a video game type and I'm not confident he'll handle adversity well in the NFL. In the old NFL I'd scream it. In Tutu Goodell's pantyhose NFL admittedly you can't discount anybody who will work at it a moderate amount. In the Oklahoma State game Griffin threw a tantrum during the first half, after a botched play near the goal line. On another site weeks ago I posted that Griffin is a candidate for a Woody Hayes moment in the NFL. That might be an overstatement but I don't buy him as a cool customer. Unlike many fans who became aware of Griffin this season I've bet his games for years. Heck, he started from early 2008. Griffin whined many times, like twice after losses to Connecticut. I think he's a fair weather player in what has been a fair weather bubble screen league. Luck is the most solid guy imaginable, as witnessed by his comments after being denied the Heisman for a second straight year. Put Griffin in Luck's spot and I can almost guarantee some bitterness would have spilled, and been debated.

Griffin throws a lovely deep ball, no denying that. Dropped from the ceiling. But his release lengthens considerably on those throws and occasionally he can't get them off when pressured. The guy is asked to drop back and decipher the middle of the field perhaps 4-5 times per game. Everything else is based off the bubble screen-type plays, slants, and pump and go.

Here's a preseason evaluation of Robert Griffin:

http://tommeltonscouting.wordpress.com/2011/07/10/pre-season-scouting-report-robert-griffin-qb-baylor/

I love preseason ratings, particularly for betting purposes, because they are an absolute gold mine. Everything tends to drift back to the beginning. My bowl betting system based on preseason ratings had another big year. In this case Griffin might be better than this guy's assessment, and he later updated it. But it's incredibly foolish to dismiss all the troubling aspects. I warned when we drafted Ronnie Brown that you couldn't obsess over the final games of his career, and combine numbers, while ignoring that great running backs by definition don't become 5th year seniors, players who were rated 2nd round until late their final year. The same holds true for Griffin. This is hardly a huge physical freak like Cam Newton, who I would have traded the world for. Newton started one season and became a revelation. Griffin is a long term known quantity who played early as a freshman and stayed in the lineup other than injury early as a sophomore. In fairness, although Griffin is hardly instinctive in the pocket and gives up far too many cheap sacks for an athlete of his caliber, he improved his escapability and downfield running confidence as this season progressed. After the 2009 injury he was noticeably gun shy in 2010.




Just a brilliant post.

You bring up a lot of points about Big-12 quarterbacks that I've made for several years, and they do typically scare the hell out of me in terms of drafting them in the 1st round. You can go all the way back to the Big-12's inception in 1994 when the old SWC and old Big-8 merged to form the Big-12, and the conference has YET to produce a legitimate franchise quarterback. Zero.

It's produced many stat hogs, and Heisman Trophy winners/candidates.... but no legitimate NFL signal callers. They simply don't play defense in that conference. Every year you're going to have half a dozen QB's from the Big-12 that are putting up Heisman type numbers by throwing 437 bubble screens a game against soft coverages that have the DB's playing 10 yards off. Everytime one of these QB's ends up facing a top notch SEC defense, they either struggle to put up more than 14 points, get knocked out of the game.... or both.

They have trouble adjusting to the NFL offenses where the burden of responsibility to orchestrate an entire offense falls squarely on their shoulders. The lack of even quality backup QB's in the NFL from the Big-12 over the past 20 years is most telling. You can't bubble screen your way down the field for points against NFL defenses.


You also touched on another great point. The fact that some of these system QB's from the Big-12 are just now able to really hang on to backup/spot starter type roles with the rules in the NFL so slanted towards the passing game and protecting quarterbacks. 15 years ago, these type of quarterbacks couldn't even hang on to roster spots in the NFL.

Eventually, the odds say that sooner or later a Big-12 quarterback has to break the mold. I mean, even the Sun-Belt has produced a guy like Jake Dehomme.... which is more than the Big-12 can say.

It's great to see you posting again around here, Dooger. Keep it up.

houtz
01-19-2012, 08:45 AM
Draft a playmaker at 8/9 and do whatever it takes to get Tannehill. If that means trade back up into the first you do it. Miami isn't winning anything with Moore.

RobertHorry
01-19-2012, 10:48 AM
In all honestly, I would take Lindley in the 2nd/3rd round and be extremely happy.

Aqua and Orange
01-19-2012, 07:19 PM
I'm sorry that it has been posted before a bunch of times, but I am beginning to slowly join the group interested in acquiring Matt Moore over drafting a QB. Any other year I would be killing the Dolphins for not drafting a QB, but I see traits in Flynn that are special...especially at his age.

If unable to get Flynn, I would still hope the Dolphins trade up for RGIII. While he has some issues, I find his high ceiling worth the investment.

WelcomeBack
01-19-2012, 07:25 PM
I'd take Tannehill, but right now I'm more inclined to stick with Moore one more season as 2013's QB class has the potential to be completely stacked.