PDA

View Full Version : Best draft value at #9



normaniii
02-16-2012, 05:09 AM
Is #9 no to high to draft a RB, OG or RT?

If yes then it rules out, Reiff, Martin, DeCastro & Trent Richardson.

IMO we are more than likely to re-sign one of Solai & Langford, which leaves us set at DT, ruling out Devon Still & Brockers.

With Blackmon most likely off board, if we do not trade down, the only player I can see us drafting is Quinton Coples.

What do u think?

I could see us trading down.

JCane
02-16-2012, 05:14 AM
People misinterpret the meaning of value IMO.

Trent Richardson is an incredible talent without any question. But he's not a great value pick at #9.

I think the best value picks are Quinton Couples and Courtney Upshaw.

If Blackmon somehow slips to #8 or #9, then he's incredible value at either spot.

Robert Griffin III is unbelievable value that late in the draft even though I'm not quite sold on him.

normaniii
02-16-2012, 05:34 AM
People misinterpret the meaning of value IMO.

Trent Richardson is an incredible talent without any question. But he's not a great value pick at #9.

I think the best value picks are Quinton Couples and Courtney Upshaw.

If Blackmon somehow slips to #8 or #9, then he's incredible value at either spot.

Robert Griffin III is unbelievable value that late in the draft even though I'm not quite sold on him.

Your agreeing with me, but im not sure if you are referring to my OP as misinterpreting value.

JCane
02-16-2012, 05:37 AM
Your agreeing with me, but im not sure if you are referring to my OP as misinterpreting value.

Definitely not.

Just throwing it out there before someone thinks that Trent Richardson is great value at #9. Back in the late 1980's, Trent Richardson would have been great value at #9.

I think we'll see Trent Richardson "slip" in the same sense that Mark Ingram slipped and people couldn't understand why. Highly doubt Trent slips that far down the board, but I wouldn't even blink if I seen him go in the 18-22 range.

normaniii
02-16-2012, 05:47 AM
I would trade with Bengals (Miami 1st & 2nd for Bengals 17 & 21 + 4th).

I would then select one of Ingram, Upshaw or Mercilus and Tannehill.

JCane
02-16-2012, 05:51 AM
I really can't see Upshaw getting to #17.

That dude is going to show out at the combine and work himself up the draft board.

normaniii
02-16-2012, 05:56 AM
Definitely not.

Just throwing it out there before someone thinks that Trent Richardson is great value at #9. Back in the late 1980's, Trent Richardson would have been great value at #9.

I think we'll see Trent Richardson "slip" in the same sense that Mark Ingram slipped and people couldn't understand why. Highly doubt Trent slips that far down the board, but I wouldn't even blink if I seen him go in the 18-22 range.

I 100% agree.....but could see the Bengals trading with us to get Richardson.

The Bengals earmark positions for each draft pick. Charlie Casserly believes they are going CB/RB with first 2.

If they stay put they run the risk of losing out on Dre Kirkpatrick/Janoris Jenkins at #17. If they do indeed trade with us and Trent is still available, they would select him with first and pick one of the many CB's projected to go at top of 2nd i.e. Alfonzo Dennard (http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1630805/alfonzo-dennard), Stephon Gilmore (http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1664166/stephon-gilmore), Leonard Johnson (http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1630686/leonard-johnson), Chase Minnifield (http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1272264/chase-minnifield). To me it makes sense for both parties.

The Confessor
02-16-2012, 06:59 AM
I would trade with Bengals (Miami 1st & 2nd for Bengals 17 & 21 + 4th).

I would then select one of Ingram, Upshaw or Mercilus and Tannehill.

IF we were able to make that trade, and STILL end up with upshaw, I'd be very happy..however, I would be just as happy to take Upshaw at 9, take Fleener with our 2nd..of course that extra 4th from the Bengals could definitely mean a new RT..or at least an extra chance to land that gem in the rye at RT.

SF Dolphin Fan
02-16-2012, 11:29 PM
Best value might be David DeCastro. But I think Michael Floyd and Kendall Wright would be possibilities for Miami as well. Hard to say without knowing what will happen in free agency.

The Confessor
02-17-2012, 06:28 AM
Best value might be David DeCastro. But I think Michael Floyd and Kendall Wright would be possibilities for Miami as well. Hard to say without knowing what will happen in free agency.

There are 2 things that are VERY important for winning, a great Defense and a Great Offensive line. QB obviously is as important, if not more, but without a great O-line and defense, the best QB won't accomplish very much.
The Patriots have been winning a long damn time with this montra, and the Fruityniners were very successful this last year with said montra...and a very sub-par QB.

Fin Thirteen
02-17-2012, 08:49 AM
I'm of the strong opinion the Fins go DE/OLB somewhere in the first two rounds, unless we pick up Mario Williams or somebody in FA. Mercilus at top of the second feels right.

Superbowl winners hold opponents under 20 points a game. It's isn't true every season (though I think the Giants did it this year) but often enough to be a mantra for teams who want the trophy. Pass rush and picks are what we need to be in that defensive club consistently.

SF Dolphin Fan
02-17-2012, 01:14 PM
There are 2 things that are VERY important for winning, a great Defense and a Great Offensive line. QB obviously is as important, if not more, but without a great O-line and defense, the best QB won't accomplish very much.
The Patriots have been winning a long damn time with this montra, and the Fruityniners were very successful this last year with said montra...and a very sub-par QB.So true. This is a game of split seconds really and if your line can give a qb an extra second or two even an average qb is going to have success.

ckparrothead
02-17-2012, 01:46 PM
I think a lot of what we "know" about position values in the top 10 were reset when the league adopted a rookie wage scale.

This year's #8 overall pick will make about $3.1 or $3.2 million per year. Think about that. What position can you NOT justify as good value, if the player is as good as you think he is, considering he'll only make $3 million a year?

You're going to say a David DeCastro wouldn't be a good value? Why? A high quality Guard in the NFL can make $8-9 million a year. This guy is only going to make $3 million a year, for the next 4 years.

A lot of what happened in previous drafts was a PUSH for certain positions to be in the top 10 because of the MONEY. Rolando McClain the #8 overall pick in 2010 got a 5 year, $40 million contract. That's $8 million a year. Could you take a guard at #8 overall in 2010, knowing you have to give him the same contract that Logan Mankins just got? No. Instead you steer toward a tackle or a defensive end, because great tackles like Jason Peters make at least $10 million per year. There's still some wiggle room between that $8 million per year and $10 to $12 million per year level. Even if the guy doesn't work out at Left Tackle there's a good chance he'll be a Right Tackle, and those guys still make $6 or $7 million per year, so your $8 million per year contract is still not that overpaid. Meanwhile great defensive ends can get up to $15 million a year, and so there's a LOT of wiggle room there between the $8 million a year and $15 million a year.

All the pushing up we've done over the years at certain positions, the NFL will start to unwind some of that now that the rookie wage scale is in place. Now you can just get the most impact players. And you know what? The best players at their respective positions in this Draft are guys like Andrew Luck, Brandon Weeden, Trent Richardson, Justin Blackmon, Matt Kalil, David DeCastro, Peter Konz, Quinton Coples, Courtney Upshaw, Luke Kuechly and Morris Claiborne. These are going to be high impact players and I think if I'm picking at #8 overall then I want a high impact player. Based on what I've seen recently, I'm tempted to put Coby Fleener in that category.

That said, Justin Blackmon, Andrew Luck, Matt Kalil and Morris Claiborne will be off the board by the time we pick, and Quinton Coples probably will be as well. We don't need a Peter Konz because of Mike Pouncey's presence. There's a decent chance you could get Brandon Weeden in the 2nd round. So you have David DeCastro, Trent Richardson, Courtney Upshaw and Luke Kuechly.

I don't know what the hidden talent is that Mike Sherman sees for the right side of the line. If it's Lydon Murtha at Right Tackle then you could totally justify David DeCastro as a Right Guard. High impact runners with high optics like Trent Richardson don't come along very often. I've been saying for a long time now that Richardson is the best I've seen since Peterson. That's a justifiable pick. It will IMMEDIATELY get defenses' attention. If we don't get Mario Williams as enduro says then Courtney Upshaw is justifiable, very impact player in both phases. And Luke Kuechly could be the mainstay of a smart 4-3 defense for the next decade and a half. He's that good. He would take up where Zach Thomas left off.

ticophin
02-17-2012, 01:47 PM
Patriots DIDNT have a great Defense, in fact, they had one of the worst...but their Oline consistently gives Brady enough time to find one of his 3 solid weapons (imagine, 1 pro bowl receiver, and 2 tight ends, thats it!, the rest are average at best)

The Confessor
02-17-2012, 05:36 PM
I think a lot of what we "know" about position values in the top 10 were reset when the league adopted a rookie wage scale.

This year's #8 overall pick will make about $3.1 or $3.2 million per year. Think about that. What position can you NOT justify as good value, if the player is as good as you think he is, considering he'll only make $3 million a year?

You're going to say a David DeCastro wouldn't be a good value? Why? A high quality Guard in the NFL can make $8-9 million a year. This guy is only going to make $3 million a year, for the next 4 years.

A lot of what happened in previous drafts was a PUSH for certain positions to be in the top 10 because of the MONEY. Rolando McClain the #8 overall pick in 2010 got a 5 year, $40 million contract. That's $8 million a year. Could you take a guard at #8 overall in 2010, knowing you have to give him the same contract that Logan Mankins just got? No. Instead you steer toward a tackle or a defensive end, because great tackles like Jason Peters make at least $10 million per year. There's still some wiggle room between that $8 million per year and $10 to $12 million per year level. Even if the guy doesn't work out at Left Tackle there's a good chance he'll be a Right Tackle, and those guys still make $6 or $7 million per year, so your $8 million per year contract is still not that overpaid. Meanwhile great defensive ends can get up to $15 million a year, and so there's a LOT of wiggle room there between the $8 million a year and $15 million a year.

All the pushing up we've done over the years at certain positions, the NFL will start to unwind some of that now that the rookie wage scale is in place. Now you can just get the most impact players. And you know what? The best players at their respective positions in this Draft are guys like Andrew Luck, Brandon Weeden, Trent Richardson, Justin Blackmon, Matt Kalil, David DeCastro, Peter Konz, Quinton Coples, Courtney Upshaw, Luke Kuechly and Morris Claiborne. These are going to be high impact players and I think if I'm picking at #8 overall then I want a high impact player. Based on what I've seen recently, I'm tempted to put Coby Fleener in that category.

That said, Justin Blackmon, Andrew Luck, Matt Kalil and Morris Claiborne will be off the board by the time we pick, and Quinton Coples probably will be as well. We don't need a Peter Konz because of Mike Pouncey's presence. There's a decent chance you could get Brandon Weeden in the 2nd round. So you have David DeCastro, Trent Richardson, Courtney Upshaw and Luke Kuechly.

I don't know what the hidden talent is that Mike Sherman sees for the right side of the line. If it's Lydon Murtha at Right Tackle then you could totally justify David DeCastro as a Right Guard. High impact runners with high optics like Trent Richardson don't come along very often. I've been saying for a long time now that Richardson is the best I've seen since Peterson. That's a justifiable pick. It will IMMEDIATELY get defenses' attention. If we don't get Mario Williams as enduro says then Courtney Upshaw is justifiable, very impact player in both phases. And Luke Kuechly could be the mainstay of a smart 4-3 defense for the next decade and a half. He's that good. He would take up where Zach Thomas left off.


Actually, perhaps the best way to add a scale to value is how many plays said player is going to play during a season.

Trent Richardson won't see that many touches, and if he does, it means that Bush doesn't.

I think DeCastro is an instant starter, and therefore is very good value at the position. IF he becomes a very good player, then its great value.

ROADRUNNER
02-17-2012, 06:36 PM
I think a lot of what we "know" about position values in the top 10 were reset when the league adopted a rookie wage scale.

This year's #8 overall pick will make about $3.1 or $3.2 million per year. Think about that. What position can you NOT justify as good value, if the player is as good as you think he is, considering he'll only make $3 million a year?

You're going to say a David DeCastro wouldn't be a good value? Why? A high quality Guard in the NFL can make $8-9 million a year. This guy is only going to make $3 million a year, for the next 4 years.

A lot of what happened in previous drafts was a PUSH for certain positions to be in the top 10 because of the MONEY. Rolando McClain the #8 overall pick in 2010 got a 5 year, $40 million contract. That's $8 million a year. Could you take a guard at #8 overall in 2010, knowing you have to give him the same contract that Logan Mankins just got? No. Instead you steer toward a tackle or a defensive end, because great tackles like Jason Peters make at least $10 million per year. There's still some wiggle room between that $8 million per year and $10 to $12 million per year level. Even if the guy doesn't work out at Left Tackle there's a good chance he'll be a Right Tackle, and those guys still make $6 or $7 million per year, so your $8 million per year contract is still not that overpaid. Meanwhile great defensive ends can get up to $15 million a year, and so there's a LOT of wiggle room there between the $8 million a year and $15 million a year.

All the pushing up we've done over the years at certain positions, the NFL will start to unwind some of that now that the rookie wage scale is in place. Now you can just get the most impact players. And you know what? The best players at their respective positions in this Draft are guys like Andrew Luck, Brandon Weeden, Trent Richardson, Justin Blackmon, Matt Kalil, David DeCastro, Peter Konz, Quinton Coples, Courtney Upshaw, Luke Kuechly and Morris Claiborne. These are going to be high impact players and I think if I'm picking at #8 overall then I want a high impact player. Based on what I've seen recently, I'm tempted to put Coby Fleener in that category.

That said, Justin Blackmon, Andrew Luck, Matt Kalil and Morris Claiborne will be off the board by the time we pick, and Quinton Coples probably will be as well. We don't need a Peter Konz because of Mike Pouncey's presence. There's a decent chance you could get Brandon Weeden in the 2nd round. So you have David DeCastro, Trent Richardson, Courtney Upshaw and Luke Kuechly.

I don't know what the hidden talent is that Mike Sherman sees for the right side of the line. If it's Lydon Murtha at Right Tackle then you could totally justify David DeCastro as a Right Guard. High impact runners with high optics like Trent Richardson don't come along very often. I've been saying for a long time now that Richardson is the best I've seen since Peterson. That's a justifiable pick. It will IMMEDIATELY get defenses' attention. If we don't get Mario Williams as enduro says then Courtney Upshaw is justifiable, very impact player in both phases. And Luke Kuechly could be the mainstay of a smart 4-3 defense for the next decade and a half. He's that good. He would take up where Zach Thomas left off.

Thanks for the calm in this time of the year.................

Zounds
02-17-2012, 09:52 PM
High impact runners with high optics like Trent Richardson don't come along very often. I've been saying for a long time now that Richardson is the best I've seen since Peterson. That's a justifiable pick. It will IMMEDIATELY get defenses' attention. If we don't get Mario Williams as enduro says then Courtney Upshaw is justifiable, very impact player in both phases. And Luke Kuechly could be the mainstay of a smart 4-3 defense for the next decade and a half. He's that good. He would take up where Zach Thomas left off.

I would love to see Richardson get picked by us. Not only would he be an impact player, but he's top 5 talent in this draft imo. That's value at pick 8 or 9. I hope Ireland grew some balls this offseason. I'd be ok with Upshaw, but if we are just talking about value at pick 8 or 9, I think Richardson has more. Don't know much about Kuechly yet.

Zounds
02-17-2012, 10:05 PM
Actually, perhaps the best way to add a scale to value is how many plays said player is going to play during a season.

Trent Richardson won't see that many touches, and if he does, it means that Bush doesn't.

I think DeCastro is an instant starter, and therefore is very good value at the position. IF he becomes a very good player, then its great value.

I know we all have our defenition of "value" but I think you have to look judge the player's value as an individual and not how he fits onto a team.

Reggis Bush is a FA next year first of all. I like Reggie a lot but do you really think he will play 16 or 18 games this year? Bush could get 10 carries a game, line up in the slot, and return punts while Richardson could still carry 15-20 times a game and block on 3rd down, which he does very well. If we drafted Richardson, we get a great RB, and we can let Bush return punts and catch more passes. It upgrades 3 positions imo.

Roman529
02-18-2012, 12:07 AM
Coples had a bad senior season and Mike Mayock gave him a thumb's down. I think Courtney Upshaw would be a smart pick.

silverfin
02-18-2012, 08:42 AM
IF we were able to make that trade, and STILL end up with upshaw, I'd be very happy..however, I would be just as happy to take Upshaw at 9, take Fleener with our 2nd..of course that extra 4th from the Bengals could definitely mean a new RT..or at least an extra chance to land that gem in the rye at RT.

Fleener is gonna be another one who impresses at the combine and shoots up draft boards.

I expect him to go in the first round 20-32 range.

The Confessor
02-18-2012, 08:46 AM
I know we all have our defenition of "value" but I think you have to look judge the player's value as an individual and not how he fits onto a team.

Reggis Bush is a FA next year first of all. I like Reggie a lot but do you really think he will play 16 or 18 games this year? Bush could get 10 carries a game, line up in the slot, and return punts while Richardson could still carry 15-20 times a game and block on 3rd down, which he does very well. If we drafted Richardson, we get a great RB, and we can let Bush return punts and catch more passes. It upgrades 3 positions imo.

Once again, you are taking one of, if not our most productive player from last year and reducing his chances.
Great Runningbacks are routinely picked anywhere from 3rd round to not drafted at all. I have posted this list over and over and over.
Richardson with a top 10 pick is a waste of a pick. I'm personally not even sold on Richardson to begin with. We see this each and every year, and more often than not this incredible can't miss RB turns out to be a top 10-15 back and nothing more.

There will be much much better value on the board at 9 than Richardson.

The Confessor
02-18-2012, 08:48 AM
Fleener is gonna be another one who impresses at the combine and shoots up draft boards.

I expect him to go in the first round 20-32 range.

You might be right, but TE's tend to fall a bit.
Like I mentioned, my dream is that we score a starting RT or Pass rushing demon in the 1st, then either Fleener or maybe Weeden depending on how FA goes in the 2nd.
IF we can do this, I think the rest of the draft really really opens up for us.

Zounds
02-18-2012, 11:38 AM
Once again, you are taking one of, if not our most productive player from last year and reducing his chances.
Great Runningbacks are routinely picked anywhere from 3rd round to not drafted at all. I have posted this list over and over and over.


That's like saying because Tom Brady was taken in the 7th round, we don't need to look for a QB before the 7ths round. That philosophy will get you fired. Drafting Richardson wouldn't necessarily take touches away from Bush. Bushe's touches would be spread over catches, PR, and rushing. To say you could get a Trent Richardson in the 3rd round is a real head scratcher.

9 of the top 15 RB's last year were drafted in the first round, and that doesn't include Adrian Peterson.

The Confessor
02-18-2012, 12:00 PM
That's like saying because Tom Brady was taken in the 7th round, we don't need to look for a QB before the 7ths round. That philosophy will get you fired. Drafting Richardson wouldn't necessarily take touches away from Bush. Bushe's touches would be spread over catches, PR, and rushing. To say you could get a Trent Richardson in the 3rd round is a real head scratcher.

9 of the top 15 RB's last year were drafted in the first round, and that doesn't include Adrian Peterson.


No, that is not correct. Post your list and then I will post mine....with numbers to back it up. And please do include AP

SF Dolphin Fan
02-18-2012, 12:15 PM
Coples had a bad senior season and Mike Mayock gave him a thumb's down. I think Courtney Upshaw would be a smart pick.I love Upshaw. I think he is also versatile enough to work in both a 4-3 and 3-4. Any time effort is questioned I think that's a huge red flag so while I like Coples talent I'd stay away -- at least in the 1st.

CrazyCarl
02-18-2012, 01:19 PM
No, that is not correct. Post your list and then I will post mine....with numbers to back it up. And please do include AP

actually that is correct.. MarShawn Lynch, Willis McGahee, Stephen Jackson, Ryan Mathews, Reggie Bush, Cedric Benson, Chris Johnson, and Beanie Wells were all in the top 15 in rushing this past season.. all were 1st round picks..

Regardless, only 9 of the top 20 rushers in the NFL last season were 1st round picks.. You don't need to take a RB in the first round to get a franchise back.. but we all pretty much knew that already..

2413fanphins
02-18-2012, 03:45 PM
well by my count this is just another skew the facts to make a point philosophy....

9 of the top 15 were drafted in the first round... was probably only proposed because the TOP FIVE were all not selected in the first round...

MJD.. 2nd round
ray rice.. 2nd round
m turner... 5th round
mccoy... 2nd round
foster... UDFA

2413fanphins
02-18-2012, 03:50 PM
to finish the list.. you have

gore... 3rd round
lync, mcgahee, sjax, and matthews all in the first round for 4 out of ten..

I did a little research awhile back and the correlation to a first round quarterback and teams makign the playoffs this year was quite high... i wonder how it compares to where thier runningbacks were selected... i may do a little legwork on that later.

jonanthans
02-19-2012, 03:58 PM
And leaving AP off the list skews points as well, no debating he isn't one of the top 3 rbs in the league. And first round Rbs have historically been better. Im not advocating taking Trent R at the #9 slot, but if we were to trade back and he was there in the mid-first round I would definelty take him.

Fin Thirteen
02-21-2012, 01:56 PM
You might be right, but TE's tend to fall a bit.

Not this year, I don't think. After Gronk and Hernandez in NE and Graham, Gonzalez, Keller et al putting up big receiving numbers and taking advantage of receiver-friendly laws, getting an athletic TE is going to be flavor of the offseason. I see TEs rising this year, not dropping.

ckparrothead
02-21-2012, 02:51 PM
Actually, perhaps the best way to add a scale to value is how many plays said player is going to play during a season.

Trent Richardson won't see that many touches, and if he does, it means that Bush doesn't.

I think DeCastro is an instant starter, and therefore is very good value at the position. IF he becomes a very good player, then its great value.

1. The logic about Richardson vs Bush is VERY myopic. Reggie Bush has one year left on his contract and it's not a cheap year. He just had a career year. Career years are usually career years because they're a high point. Do you expect him to repeat that success? Do you think Richardson is better? My answers are No and Yes, respectively.

2. Your own logic points to Trent Richardson over David DeCastro. He'll touch the ball more than David DeCastro does.

ckparrothead
02-21-2012, 02:53 PM
I would love to see Richardson get picked by us. Not only would he be an impact player, but he's top 5 talent in this draft imo. That's value at pick 8 or 9. I hope Ireland grew some balls this offseason. I'd be ok with Upshaw, but if we are just talking about value at pick 8 or 9, I think Richardson has more. Don't know much about Kuechly yet.

It's a tough call on th evalue of Richardson versus Upshaw. Richardson will impact the game more because he'll touch the ball 20 times a game. But he'll also have a shorter shelf life than Upshaw. When Richardson starts winding down his career, Upshaw should keep right on going. So it's not really an easy call. If you're thinking more short term than long term then yes I agree with you.

ckparrothead
02-21-2012, 02:56 PM
Coples had a bad senior season and Mike Mayock gave him a thumb's down. I think Courtney Upshaw would be a smart pick.

Mike Mayock gave Cam Newton a big thumbs down, and ranked Gerald McCoy ahead of Ndamukong Suh. He's not infallible. I personally have looked at Coples' games in 2011 many times and just do not see what people are talking about with "bad senior season". He was MORE interesting to me as a Defensive End than he was a Defensive Tackle, not the other way around.