View Full Version : Trading down.. A likely possibility.

03-10-2012, 03:13 PM
Now that the possibility of trading up to two is out the window, is time to sit back a re-asses from a draft perspective.

While I am not a draft expert, and I don't pretend to be, there are a couple of key facts that have jumped out at me in regards to the Dolphins position in this draft.

First, the Dolphins areas of need do not match, in value, with what might be available by the time we're on the clock.

Secondly, areas targeted as needs show either great depth, making players of comparable talent available in later picks. Or, show a significant drop after the top tier, in which case, 2nd tier players are not worth a top 10 pick.

Caveat; This is pretty obvious, but I must mention it in order not to get destroyed on the comments.... If my believe is that there is a void of value for this years 1st round 7-12 picks. Than why would any team want to trade up and get stuck in this same ambiguous position? The answer is that we better hope and pray that a team is so in love with one blue chipper that we are able to satisfy their need at a favorable fee. And at the same time we also need help from the top. If a top team reaches on their pick, it will cause for a blue chipper to fall, this is when we strike

Blue Chippers (as per me, in no particular order) Luck/Griffin/Kalil/Claiborne/Richardson/Couples/Blackmon.

Needs Vs Value:
1) Pass Rush: Only one elite Pass Rusher on this years draft. Couples, ideally would make the perfect pick. Impact position, Impact player.. But realistically, there are so many red flags on this guy that you would think he was a Hurricane Warning... My opinion, let someone else take the chance. Seen too many like him not make it enough to not feel comfortable with picking him for my team. Others like Upshaw and Ingram would make a lot more sense, but would definitive reaches at # 8 overall.

2) Offensive Line: There is absolutely, positively no value what so ever in picking an offensive line man with a top 10 pick who is NOT going to be your immediate LT. In a regular year, you would be able to find capable non LTs into the mid rounds. Picking here would be more of a indictment of the system in place for not being able to develop OL talent. Pair that with the fact that this is an ultra deep year for O/L and you can see why holding off to the 2nd round would be the wise thing to do.

3) Safety: Historically great safties (Reed/Palomalu) can be had in the mid to late 1st rd. However, with the emergence of the TE based offence, a higher value could be placed on a supreme safety. With that said, an argument could be made for picking Barron 8th overall (Not because I believe him to be Reed/Palomalu good, but simply because he is the top rated safety in this years draft)

4) Tight End: Plain and simple, there is nothing worth a top 20 pick in this draft. Top three options considered 2nd round grades.

**If we stay Pat, my choice would be Ingram/Barron/Upshaw... in that order.

SF Dolphin Fan
03-10-2012, 05:18 PM
I think a trade down is a good possibility, but a lot will depend on the Peyton Manning/Matt Flynn results. If the Dolphins get Manning then I think Ryan Tannehill is a big possibility at #8. If they get Flynn then Quinton Couples is a real target if Jeff Ireland feels the underachiever label is not a fair accessment of his play. If the team misses out on both quarterbacks then Tannehill is almost a must.

03-10-2012, 06:36 PM
In a trade down scenario I would take bpa in the first whether it be DeCastro, Luke K., or Ingram. In the second I would make a push to get Fleener or Nick Perry depending.

Elliott 1
03-10-2012, 07:00 PM
I couldn't disagree more.

Luke Kuechly at the #8 is perfect for the Dolphins.

Dansby and Burnett would both flourish on the outside with Kuechly in the middle.

Kuechly is a vastly superior prospect to any of the guys listed after Luck and RG. You can't ask more of a player at his position. Brilliant leader,very athletic,with an extraordinary body of work; and on top of everything else he is coming out early and could lead this defense for the next 14 years and then go on to the HOF.

You just don't pass on a player like this.

If Manning isn't signed there could be a lot of pass rushers available. Mario Williams,John Abraham, looks like Freeny is getting cut, even guys like Jeremy Mincey are decent. In fact Mincey could be the next Jason Babin.

If Manning is signed you just have to draft pass rushers later on and hope that Merling is able to drop weight and flourish as a true 4-3 DE, which, IMO was always where he belonged.

03-10-2012, 10:41 PM
I think a lot of whether we trade up or down depends on whether or not we can sign Manning or Flynn at QB. Now that RG3 is likely going to the Skins, the next likely QB to be drafted is Tannehill. The Cleveland Browns could decide that he is the guy they want. I wouldn't move up for Tannehill. If Tannehill is gone, I think drafting down makes the most sense. I think Weeden, Osweiler or Cousins could provide a reliable QB to be groomed for later, but we should know our options a little better sometime next week.

03-10-2012, 10:59 PM
forget trading down give me a ****ing play maker, that how championships are one in todays game

03-10-2012, 11:20 PM
I don't know what's going to happen with the Manning situation but if he does sign here and he does what we all think he's capable of doing, we won't be picking in the top 10 until he's gone...could be 3 years, could be more. We better get a playmaker...no RT, no D-lineman...a freakin playmaker.

03-11-2012, 12:08 AM
Trading down? Yeah, if we get Manning and if Tannehill is gone. If Tannehill is still there, then we grab him, groom him for 2 years then have him step in & replace Manning.

Datruth is right about not having a top 10 pick for a while.. If we get Manning, then I expect us to be picking low 20's next year, then late 20's in 2014. Thats why I wouldn't mind Tannehill at 8.

03-14-2012, 03:08 AM
I wouldn't mind us trading down to mid 1st rd and grabbing a 2nd or 3rd this year but now that BM is gone things are going to get interesting.
Let's see if Ireland has the balls to do the opposite and trade UP for Blackmon. He is a play maker and I believe will have an impact right away int he NFL like AJ Green and Julio Jones did. If it can be done at a good price why not.