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View Full Version : If Tannehill Is Taken Before We Draft



Vaark
03-23-2012, 02:12 PM
What would you do?

Ignore the Weeden.. s/b Tannehill. Hopefully a mod can correct my hasty brainfart!

josekareh
03-23-2012, 02:16 PM
Call Culpecker!!! LOL

Mage_Phin
03-23-2012, 02:16 PM
I'd be fine with it because it means several elite prospects would still be on the board for us to choose from.

Kdawg954
03-23-2012, 02:16 PM
The unfortunate part is we'll never know if he was the guy we were targeting and the Front Office can spin that in many ways. They'll settle for Cousins or Lindley and say "This is the guy we have been targeting from day one" and all that crap.

Ireland needs to prove himself in this draft. All the hype he had as a talent evaluator and he has yet to bring that ability to a Dolphins draft. When your people skills are lackluster like his are, you better be able to show why you deserve to stick around.

Vaark
03-23-2012, 02:17 PM
damn haste makes waste

Mods please change Poll title to "Tannehill" sorry

nsbnative
03-23-2012, 02:18 PM
Cousins or Osweiler if Tannehill is gone.

insomnia411
03-23-2012, 02:20 PM
Be angry

J. David Wannyheimer
03-23-2012, 02:21 PM
Voted "OK with Weeden at 8."

If Tannehill's gone before 8, I doubt Weeden's gonna last much longer, his age be damned. If a kid like Tannehill who still needs time in the oven is off the board that early, that means all bets are off, IMO.

Tureo
03-23-2012, 02:34 PM
Thank Jeses

andyahs
03-23-2012, 02:35 PM
Voted "OK with Weeden at 8."

If Tannehill's gone before 8, I doubt Weeden's gonna last much longer, his age be damned. If a kid like Tannehill who still needs time in the oven is off the board that early, that means all bets are off, IMO.

I agree. We risk again missing both if Tannehill is gone and although 'lets roll with Moore and pick a QB next year' sounds good we need to make that pick this year. Next year we will be back again deciding which pick do we use on a QB.

hooshoops
03-23-2012, 02:39 PM
not take weeden at #8...i know that

Vaark
03-23-2012, 02:40 PM
Yeah, I'd take Weeden @8 under the theory that if what some gurus label the most pro ready QB after Luck can give us a distinguished 7 or so years from the getgo or starting in 2013, with plenty of time to groom a successor, that would represent a much better and consistent run we would have had since Dan.

Hopefully a mod will correct this but it looks like no one is mistaken once they get into the poll.

Kdawg954
03-23-2012, 02:48 PM
The one option that isn't there is trade up from #42. I'm also not taking him at 8 as I think you can get him later but at the same time I wouldn't risk that he slides to 42.

We need a weapon at 8.

silverfin
03-23-2012, 02:49 PM
Cousins in the 3rd

Wouldn't mind Tannehill or Weeden in the 2nd, although wouldn't touch either at 8

Elliott 1
03-23-2012, 02:50 PM
I think Weeden is a top 10 talent, but if the Browns draft Tannehill with the 4th then I just don't see any other teams drafting a QB in the 1st round.

Dolphins could try to trade up into to the top of the 2nd just to make sure they get Weeden but there is a very good chance he is still there when we pick in the 2nd round. In fact, he could even slide to the third, because if a team like KC or Buffalo does decide to draft a QB, they seem like teams that would look for a young QB to develop for a year or two.

The Jaguars made a big investment in QB last year, I doubt they use a 1-3 this year. I could see them drafting Osweiler in the 4th.

Roman529
03-23-2012, 02:51 PM
I would be ok with Tannehill at #8, but we might see someone slip to us who could be too good to pass on. I also think we could probably trade down and maybe get Weeden, Osweiler or Cousins later on, but if there is nobody there better than Moore/Garrard than just stick with these two QB's and get our franchise QB next year (Matt Barkley).

Zounds
03-23-2012, 02:58 PM
I'm ok with drafting Tannehill, but not at #8.

I'm ok with drafting Weeden, but not in the 1st round.

If I had a choice between Weeden and Tennehil straight up, I choose Weeden.

J. David Wannyheimer
03-23-2012, 03:03 PM
I think Weeden is a top 10 talent, but if the Browns draft Tannehill with the 4th then I just don't see any other teams drafting a QB in the 1st round.

Dolphins could try to trade up into to the top of the 2nd just to make sure they get Weeden but there is a very good chance he is still there when we pick in the 2nd round. In fact, he could even slide to the third, because if a team like KC or Buffalo does decide to draft a QB, they seem like teams that would look for a young QB to develop for a year or two.

The Jaguars made a big investment in QB last year, I doubt they use a 1-3 this year. I could see them drafting Osweiler in the 4th.

I think Kansas City drafts a QB early.

Ed Norton
03-23-2012, 03:06 PM
I'd prefer Weeden over Tannehill. I was getting confused and at first thought the question was if Weeden is taken. I was going to say probably explode!

Mogwai
03-23-2012, 03:07 PM
Spend the 8th on Weeden? Who would we be competing with for him? If Tannehill goes to Cleveland, we would be the last team in the entire league not to make a serious attempt at finding a longterm QB. I don't know who else would take a QB in the 1st.

If Tannehill is gone, I would really just bank everything on moving up for Barkley next year. Spend the entire year stockpiling picks for that run.

MiZFiT
03-23-2012, 03:09 PM
The Weeden/Tannehill mistype a brainfart? Sounds purposeful to me. :ponder:

I see right through your mind games!

hooshoops
03-23-2012, 03:15 PM
if you're so worried about losing weeden if tannehill goes prior to #8 take a top 10 bpa position talent with the #8 pick and come up from #42 after you get into the mid 20's or so...if you're so worried...

me i think he comfortably is on the board in round 2...the only people talkin take him in the top 10 are on this board...

fishbanger
03-23-2012, 03:17 PM
Trade down unless one of the top 6 players are siting at 8. If richardson, blackmon, or claiborne was there I would draft them else trade down.

Rocket2981
03-23-2012, 03:31 PM
The ideal scenario is to trade down 1 or even 2 times in the 1st round then pick Nick Perry at the end of the 1st round then pick Weeden with number 42. By trading down 2 times we should have at least 1 more 2nd round pick + another 3rd and possibly a 4th or a 5th.

That would be the ideal scenario IMO...

Aqua and Orange
03-23-2012, 03:37 PM
I fully expect the Dolphins to bypass Tannehill even if he IS there at #8. I love him as a developmental prospect, but doubt this regime shares my sentiments. Weeden fits better into their system and gives them a quicker answer to their ailing QB position. The identity of this Dolphins GM is nothing if not always looking for a quick fix.

That's not to say drafting Weeden would be a mistake...far from it. The major, major issue comes with putting all of the team's eggs in one basket, which would most definitely happen if Weeden is gone by that second round pick. Cousins and Foles have red flags that lead me to believe they will not turn out well, and Osweiler does not fit the profile of a Philbin QB.

ROADRUNNER
03-23-2012, 03:40 PM
Take DeCastro 1st pick and Cousins with our 2nd round pick..............

Zounds
03-23-2012, 03:42 PM
me i think he comfortably is on the board in round 2...the only people talkin take him in the top 10 are on this board...

I have to agree with this. I dont see Weeden going in the first. Cleveland could grab him at the top of the 2nd if the dont take Tannehill, but I dont see anyone else that might take Weeden before our 2nd round pick.

TheWalrus
03-23-2012, 04:00 PM
Take DeCastro 1st pick and Cousins with our 2nd round pick..............

You seriously think the team would be better off doing this than taking Weeden in the first and a guy like Osemele in the 2nd?

You might win the "value" awards but I know I'd be betting on my team versus yours in an actual game.

tcdrover
03-23-2012, 04:13 PM
If the browns take Tannehil I hope we get Blackmon then.

I would not draft wheedon, I'd make sure to get Cousins.

SabanHater
03-23-2012, 04:23 PM
If he isn't there go BPA.

NCFINFAN13
03-23-2012, 04:39 PM
Micheal Floyd.

3rdandinches
03-23-2012, 05:02 PM
I would much rather wait and see if B.Weeden, K.Cousins make it to our pick in the 2nd, and if not then wait to see if R.Wilson is available in the 3rd then over draft a guy that is not a top QB.

CedarPhin
03-23-2012, 05:08 PM
Don't see the big deal about Weeden, tbh. Would not take him.

LarryFinFan
03-23-2012, 05:39 PM
There are two trains of thought. Personally, BPA is the way to go in the first and second rounds. After that, you can lean more towards need. But as to the issue at hand, I doubt that Tannehill will be available to us. I know that Holmgren has a lot of respect for Sherman and I don't see them passing on Tannehill, unless they can get a super deal on a trade up...(hopefully not us)...

I think that Weeden is the most polished QB not named Luck or RG3 in this draft. He's ready to compete. I'd love to trade down and grab him at least in the mid-first. However, I wouldn't take him at #8. I'm not convinced Tannehill is just worth #8...

What would be ideal is a trade down to the mid-first and then draft Weeden, but if they can't make a legit trade, I'd say take BPA all the way.

The thing is, at #8 there's a good chance that one of the top 5 or 6 guys, regardless of position, fall and someone might be willing to move up to our spot...

But the way this offseason has gone so far, they'll probably take Eddie Moore at #8...

LarryFinFan
03-23-2012, 05:44 PM
I would much rather wait and see if B.Weeden, K.Cousins make it to our pick in the 2nd, and if not then wait to see if R.Wilson is available in the 3rd then over draft a guy that is not a top QB.

If Cleveland either trades or takes one of the elite guys at #4, they'll hope to take Weeden at #22... I don't think there is any way that Weeden makes it out of the first...not that I think he's worth a 1st, just that there are a few teams that need QBs...

I think Miami will be tempted to take Weeden at #8, but I hope not.

Big Daddy 13
03-23-2012, 05:50 PM
If not Tannehill. Osweiler in the 3rd.

Vaark
03-23-2012, 07:23 PM
Interesting. So far approximately 44% are reasonably comfortable with Weeden as our target "franchise QB" although differing on what it should take to secure him.

bigbade
03-23-2012, 07:41 PM
wow i cant believe all the love Weeden gets this guy has the lowest ceiling of any qb in the draft i mean he about to be what 29? this guy needs to be nfl ready now and hes not think of him as the next Chris Weinke I'd rather wait and take a chance on the kid from Wisc, Boise, or Houston then take a chance on Weeden.

LikeUntoGod
03-23-2012, 07:42 PM
If we take Tannehill or Weeden at #8 then we will be forced to start them. This is not what we need.

I'd hope we can take Osweiler in the 3rd round and set him for at least a year.

But we will not. We suck balls.

TedSlimmJr
03-23-2012, 07:50 PM
If Tannehill is drafted before Miami's 8th pick all that means is there's an elite player at another position there for the taking.

Miami should take that elite player at #8 and grab a developmental quarterback later, and be thankful that they weren't presented with the option of taking a developmental quarterback at #8.

Plan B would be try to trade down later in the 1st to select Weeden while acquiring more picks in the process. Taking Weeden in the 1st round isn't ideal, but the extra picks make it tenable.

J. David Wannyheimer
03-23-2012, 07:53 PM
wow i cant believe all the love Weeden gets this guy has the lowest ceiling of any qb in the draft i mean he about to be what 29? this guy needs to be nfl ready now and hes not think of him as the next Chris Weinke I'd rather wait and take a chance on the kid from Wisc, Boise, or Houston then take a chance on Weeden.

Well at least it wasn't a John Beck comparison.

bigbade
03-23-2012, 07:56 PM
Voted "OK with Weeden at 8."

If Tannehill's gone before 8, I doubt Weeden's gonna last much longer, his age be damned. If a kid like Tannehill who still needs time in the oven is off the board that early, that means all bets are off, IMO.

I don't really see your logic here, from everything I've read Tannehill is considered a future franchise QB and given his YOUNG age teams will be willing to take a bigger chance with him because his talent ceiling is very HIGH. Weeden going at 8 would be our WORST 1st Round pick EVER. If we were going to take Weeden we better move WAY down to do it. Who else after us would draft a 1st round QB? If Cleveland doesn't grab Tannehill then we can go whatever way we want and if they do I wouldn't be against staying and taking Blackmon or Floyd or Reiff maybe even a pass rusher like Coples but I'm praying for Tannehill. Don't forget that Sherman coached and recruited this kid and also with the new rookie cap it's easier to take a chance on a high 1st round QB

J. David Wannyheimer
03-23-2012, 08:02 PM
I don't really see your logic here, from everything I've read Tannehill is considered a future franchise QB and given his YOUNG age teams will be willing to take a bigger chance with him because his talent ceiling is very HIGH. Weeden going at 8 would be our WORST 1st Round pick EVER. If we were going to take Weeden we better move WAY down to do it. Who else after us would draft a 1st round QB? If Cleveland doesn't grab Tannehill then we can go whatever way we want and if they do I wouldn't be against staying and taking Blackmon or Floyd or Reiff maybe even a pass rusher like Coples but I'm praying for Tannehill. Don't forget that Sherman coached and recruited this kid and also with the new rookie cap it's easier to take a chance on a high 1st round QB

First, Tannehill is a kid who is more of a project and isn't expected to be ready to start right away according to almost everyone I've seen comment on him. Which is why many think we're reaching even to talk about him at 8.

Second, our worst first round pick ever? Do you really want to go there? I mean, we've had Kumerows and Greens and... yeah. Unless the guy's total garbage (which I don't think he will be), he won't even be close to our worst first round draft pick.

As for who would draft a QB, I think KC, for one might be willing to jump in there. It's painfully obvious that Matt Cassell is trash and their backup is Brady Quinn.

bigbade
03-23-2012, 08:09 PM
I dunno man I was also a fan of Weeden early on but after watching him play and his age he is no where near worth the #8 pick. I know Tannehill is a project but a project that is supposed to birth you a franchise QB. I say worst factoring in position and talent available. I agree Tannehill is prolly a reach at #8 but much less so then Weeden IMO. Not only that but Weeden would pretty much have to start now or next year the very latest and although he is rated as the 3rd most NFL ready his age is a huge factor. To me he's too hit or miss. I agree that if we were to trade up and get him late in the first or early second it could be worth it but I don't really agree with trading down from 8 unless we get a REALLy sweet deal. This is a pretty deep draft but I think the talent has a pretty big drop off after the top 10.

ryanosaur2000
03-23-2012, 08:15 PM
Voted for taking another QB in the 2nd or 3rd (Weeden or Cousins) and taking the best player available in the 1st (possibly trading down in the 1st if possible).

rick32883
03-23-2012, 08:26 PM
Call Culpecker!!! LOL

i'd take mcnabb over him

PHINATIC13
03-23-2012, 09:15 PM
....I'm not taking Weeden at 8 either...if Tannehill is gone after the 7th pick...then maybe Blackmon or Floyd are there for us with the 8th pick...

state06
03-23-2012, 09:39 PM
Aim for Weeden in Rd 2. if he is gone we role with Moore, Garrard and Devlin. Next year seems to be loaded with Better QB prospects excluding Luck/RG3

zachblitz54
03-23-2012, 09:51 PM
If no Tannehill, trade back in rd 1 and pick Kendall Wright. Cousins in rd 2.

Vertical Limit
03-23-2012, 09:55 PM
If any team drafts Tannehill in the Top 15 they're on drugs. Joey Harrington part 2.

The Confessor
03-23-2012, 11:16 PM
If any team drafts Tannehill in the Top 15 they're on drugs. Joey Harrington part 2.

I personally think that is a SERIOUS insult to Joey Harrington.


I honestly keep asking why anybody thinks that Tannehill is going to be any good...and I keep hearing the same thing. "He has a major League arm".

BFD. He was moved to WR cause he couldnt beat out two very mediocre QB's. Okay, actually one slightly above mediocre QB and one very very lousy QB.

He completely and totally sucked the entire season at A&M, yet people think he should be a top 10 pick. I honestly have no idea any more. Common sense starts to leave the conversation when desperation is knocking at the door I guess.

Vertical Limit
03-23-2012, 11:24 PM
I haven't followed up on him the past 2-3 months, not sure if he attended any combines or work outs or what it is but he must have had one incredible work out/combine for him to suddenly go from a 3rd round pick to Top 10.

And I wanted to draft the guy at one point, at probably the 2nd round, but come on, TOP 10?? Are you kidding me? Did anyone here watch him play? Really?

If we pass on Floyd for Tannehill I don't even know what I'm going to do. It will sting like passing on Patrick Willis for Ted Ginn Jr.

Vertical Limit
03-23-2012, 11:27 PM
Hell I'll draft Coby Fleener at 8 before I draft Tannehill, or even a guard for ****s sake. You guys are falling in love with Tannehill just like you did with Quinn, but it makes no sense, no sense at all, to draft Tannehill at 8. That's too high for a guy that will need 3-4 years to develop into a quarterback in the NFL.

Tigers2003
03-24-2012, 12:57 AM
First and foremost say NO to Tannehill. Overrated. I'd take Weeden regardless of age. We need an upgrade now.

Elle Clouds
03-24-2012, 01:13 AM
no qb outside of the top 2 are worth the 8th overall. You guys are desperate!

Vertical Limit
03-24-2012, 01:23 AM
Seriously, Tannehill is so lucky than neither Barkley nor Landry Jones came out, this guy would be a 3rd or 4th round prospect.

If we do end up with Tannehill and we end up being the worst team in the league, then what? We draft Barkley and we pray that someone gives a 4th round pick for Tannehill after investing a 1st?

And don't say we wouldn't draft Barkley, we definitely would. Hell Bud Adams is willing to sign Manning on a 5 year deal after just drafting Jake Locker.

A&O
03-24-2012, 01:29 AM
This is my vote: Take best player available in every round whether a QB or not.

seltzer37
03-24-2012, 03:52 AM
Just because we need a QB we don't have to take what's there when we pick. Take the Best Player Available.

The Confessor
03-24-2012, 07:43 AM
Somebody already posted this, and I know it's against LSU and its last year, but honestly people. Watch this.

He makes exactly 1 good throw the entire game.

He constantly misses, often badly, can't avoid the pressure....ever, likes throwing to the opposite team and telegraphs his intended receiver like nobody I've ever watched. I have now gone and re-watched 3 of his games this last season (Arkansas, OSU and Texas) and I haven't seen him look off a receiver one time, in fact, he is often looking at intended receiver before he even has the ball.


LSU- 2010 CottonBowl
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oXDEzCf3C7Y

ojmcduffy
03-24-2012, 08:23 AM
I have a feeling this will be my reaction on draft day.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lYmIo4W7CC0&feature=related

allsilverdreams
03-24-2012, 09:45 AM
trade back is a must.if this team has a plan to build with the draft then we must trade back pick up a few extra picks and grab bpa no matter what in the first round.with the 2 second round picks we should double up on wr then in the third a te and rt.we might just draft the right players to make this offseason work to our advantage

darefugee
03-24-2012, 09:51 AM
BPA at 8. Let Tannehill, Weeden, Cousins, Osweiler go until round 2 at least - one or maybe all of them will be there. We're not going to miss out on a thing.

Gonzo
03-24-2012, 10:14 AM
I could have checked several of the answers really. Not a big deal if we don't land Tannehill, IMO. Once we missed out on Luck and Barkley opted to stay in school, I saw little hope of landing a franchise QB in this draft. I say go with Moore/Garrard and draft Weeden or a developmental. If one of them takes it to the next level, awesome, we don't need to draft QB the next year.

Of course, it seems like this is the scenario that plays out every single year. Backup starting, developmental 2nd rounder and soon to be career backup hot on his heels, and still no long-term answer.

fishfanmiami
03-24-2012, 10:25 AM
I believe it's like the Flynn situation.Philbin knews Flynns value and would not go more. Sherman knows Tannehill inside out and if he thinks he's worth it at 8 we draft him . If we pass on him or trade down you have your answer. Reaching to fill a need hardly ever works out .(see Ted Ginn)

NYinBostonFin
03-24-2012, 11:09 AM
Barkley, next year.

bigbade
03-24-2012, 12:15 PM
I love how people on here are making it seem that we are the ones putting Tannehill so high out of desperation. He is being rated this high by the so called draft experts out there not by Dolphins fans. I mean I really don't understand the logic sometimes used here. We wouldn't be talking bout drafting him at #8 if he wasn't being projected as a possible #4 pick by the Browns. Now I know that both teams are in need of QBs but I don't think that really comes into play in the first round of the NFL draft.

The Confessor
03-24-2012, 10:27 PM
I love how people on here are making it seem that we are the ones putting Tannehill so high out of desperation. He is being rated this high by the so called draft experts out there not by Dolphins fans. I mean I really don't understand the logic sometimes used here. We wouldn't be talking bout drafting him at #8 if he wasn't being projected as a possible #4 pick by the Browns. Now I know that both teams are in need of QBs but I don't think that really comes into play in the first round of the NFL draft.

I've honestly read this 4 times and I still have zero idea what you are trying to say?????

Vertical Limit
03-24-2012, 10:29 PM
I've honestly read this 4 times and I still have zero idea what you are trying to say?????
lmao Same here..

Mattyb
03-24-2012, 10:41 PM
If Barkley and Landry were in this draft then Tannehill probably does not even get considered a first round pick. My concern is that Tannehill is not that great of a QB. I realize he has tons of upside, but he also seems pretty raw. That type of raw unpolished talent is something that teams usually draft in the 3rd round or later. We obviously need to find our QB, however there is no reason for us to force a pick just because of this need. Anyways, I just hope Philbin gets a guy he feels he can work with.

TedSlimmJr
03-25-2012, 07:02 AM
I love how people on here are making it seem that we are the ones putting Tannehill so high out of desperation. He is being rated this high by the so called draft experts out there not by Dolphins fans. I mean I really don't understand the logic sometimes used here. We wouldn't be talking bout drafting him at #8 if he wasn't being projected as a possible #4 pick by the Browns. Now I know that both teams are in need of QBs but I don't think that really comes into play in the first round of the NFL draft.


The draft experts also rated Brady Quinn, Jamarcus Russell, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Brian Brohm, Colt Brennan, Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy, and every other Tom, Dick, and Harry out there as franchise quarterbacks.

Ryan Tannehill was always 1st round physical talent based on upside alone. This isn't news. We discussed it in the draft forum almost a year ago now when looking ahead to the 2012 class. What people always lose sight of is that he was a potential LATE 1st round quarterback prospect based on upside, but in reality an early 2nd round prospect.

He's getting pushed into the top 10 because he's viewed as the #3 quarterback in this class. Using that logic, the #6 QB in this class should be a top 20 pick.

Ryan Tannehill isn't a franchise quarterback right now... he's a project. Hell, he was a project in college for Mike Sherman.

Tannehill's upside is legitimate, but it's a tremendous gamble taking him in the top 10. There's nothing wrong with taking that gamble as long as you're not passing up an elite talent at another position in the process. But that's exactly what Miami is going to do if they take Tannehill at #8.

Amartin09
03-25-2012, 07:35 AM
Voted "OK with Weeden at 8."

If Tannehill's gone before 8, I doubt Weeden's gonna last much longer, his age be damned. If a kid like Tannehill who still needs time in the oven is off the board that early, that means all bets are off, IMO.

Dude, you are ok to take weeden at 8 !!! ???? He dumb , but not that dumb . This guy will go in the 3d or 4 th rnd

Gonzo
03-25-2012, 10:10 AM
Dude, you are ok to take weeden at 8 !!! ???? He dumb , but not that dumb . This guy will go in the 3d or 4 th rndThat's just as crazy as thinking Weeden will go at 8.

DeathStar
03-25-2012, 10:43 AM
I'd be fine with it because it means several elite prospects would still be on the board for us to choose from.

This.

BPA to get a WR/OL.

Gonzo
03-25-2012, 10:44 AM
This.

BPA to get a WR/OL.WR/Pass Rush.

Vaark
03-25-2012, 10:44 AM
The draft experts also rated Brady Quinn, Jamarcus Russell, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Brian Brohm, Colt Brennan, Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy, and every other Tom, Dick, and Harry out there as franchise quarterbacks.

Ryan Tannehill was always 1st round physical talent based on upside alone. This isn't news. We discussed it in the draft forum almost a year ago now when looking ahead to the 2012 class. What people always lose sight of is that he was a potential LATE 1st round quarterback prospect based on upside, but in reality an early 2nd round prospect.

He's getting pushed into the top 10 because he's viewed as the #3 quarterback in this class. Using that logic, the #6 QB in this class should be a top 20 pick.

Ryan Tannehill isn't a franchise quarterback right now... he's a project. Hell, he was a project in college for Mike Sherman.

Tannehill's upside is legitimate, but it's a tremendous gamble taking him in the top 10. There's nothing wrong with taking that gamble as long as you're not passing up an elite talent at another position in the process. But that's exactly what Miami is going to do if they take Tannehill at #8.

Teddy, long time ago I was part of a business that made decisions by developing statistical probability models. To an extent, what I do now reflects probabilities of past comparable reactions. Of course, derived probability is only as valid as the input used and reliable as whoever is tasked with the interpretation and analysis.

Given that, let's say hypothetically that our brainiacs have developed a pretty good back tested probability model and determine that there's a 75% statistical likelihood that Tannehill and/or Weeden will develop into top 12 tier QBs between now and 12 -24 months hence. (I know, it's Ireland and the boys, but let's just roll with the scenario please.)

Having confidence in a time tested analysis, even if it's a reach on either of these guys, Tannehill because of rawness and Weeden due to age and spread formation, wouldn't it make sense to nevertheless grab either of them as soon as possible if you in fact are that confident, rather than conceding to league consensus and sentiment, thereby running the risk of being "penny wise and pound foolish" if some other team snaps the guy up after conducting a similar probability study?

Personally, I don't care that we reach, mostly due to his age, for Weeden at 8, if we have a high determination that he will still give us a distinguished 7-8 year run; that's certainly better than anything since Marino, and plenty of time to groom his successor. Ditto if it takes Tannehill a year to sit behind Moore/Garrard if that same probability asserts he will be a stud 12-24months out. :idk:

Your thoughts?

Etuoo33
03-25-2012, 11:15 AM
I say, take Ingram at #8 and if the QB we want is still there late 1st round. trade in and make the pick. Consensus is that Tannehill is not a #8 and if the other 2 QB's came out he would be a 2nd or 3rd rounder, you just can't overpay for a project like that... someone who will NOT start right away. That pick is too valuable. I could live with a trade down scenario but we need playmaker's and Wake needs help to pressure, and this will help our crybaby corners in the secondary.

drumzan
03-25-2012, 11:38 AM
It won't happen because Tannehill is a reach even at 8. Weeden and Cousins are better.

TedSlimmJr
03-25-2012, 12:22 PM
Teddy, long time ago I was part of a business that made decisions by developing statistical probability models. To an extent, what I do now reflects probabilities of past comparable reactions. Of course, derived probability is only as valid as the input used and reliable as whoever is tasked with the interpretation and analysis.

Given that, let's say hypothetically that our brainiacs have developed a pretty good back tested probability model and determine that there's a 75% statistical likelihood that Tannehill and/or Weeden will develop into top 12 tier QBs between now and 12 -24 months hence. (I know, it's Ireland and the boys, but let's just roll with the scenario please.)

Having confidence in a time tested analysis, even if it's a reach on either of these guys, Tannehill because of rawness and Weeden due to age and spread formation, wouldn't it make sense to nevertheless grab either of them as soon as possible if you in fact are that confident, rather than conceding to league consensus and sentiment, thereby running the risk of being "penny wise and pound foolish" if some other team snaps the guy up after conducting a similar probability study?

Personally, I don't care that we reach, mostly due to his age, for Weeden at 8, if we have a high determination that he will still give us a distinguished 7-8 year run; that's certainly better than anything since Marino, and plenty of time to groom his successor. Ditto if it takes Tannehill a year to sit behind Moore/Garrard if that same probability asserts he will be a stud 12-24months out. :idk:

Your thoughts?



Let me put it this way, if Miami's front office has full confidence in any quarterback becoming the caliber of player that you speak of here, they should always take him no matter where it's at. If they can come to that conclusion about Tannehill with Mike Sherman's input, then they have to draft him... simple as that.

However, the issue I have is that I don't think there's any way they could sell me that they're completely confident on Ryan Tannehill as being that type of quarterback. If they weren't sold on Ryan Mallett as one of the best players in the 3rd round, or weren't confident that Matt Ryan was that type of quarterback coming out of BC.... how are they going to sell me that they've established that type of confidence in a kid with a year and a half's worth of starting experience under his belt, that still doesn't understand situational football, and isn't comfortable yet with the game resting on his shoulders?

I have a hard time believing that they could convince me that they view Tannehill that way, and aren't just tricking themselves into reaching because they've exhausted every other avenue.

They apparently didn't think Matt Flynn was an upgrade over Matt Moore enough to have that type of confidence in him... so what the hell were they doing pursuing him anyway? In other words, they've already proven that they'll pursue QB's they aren't sold on.

Speaking of statistical probabilities, the statistical probabilities are that 98% of the QB's in this draft never become the type of QB Matt Moore is. It's not easy. I find it hard to believe that someone could be that convinced Ryan Tannehill is in that 2%.

Weeden is a better quarterback than Ryan Tannehill right now. There's no way I can take Weeden at #8, which automatically means I can't take Tannehill there.

Of all the quarterbacks that Miami has passed up in the 1st round over the past 25 or so years, I find it extremely hard to swallow that they're suddenly ready to go all in with a prospect like Ryan Tannehill with a top 10 pick.... although it would be fitting for this organization to do just that.

Why? Because Mike Sherman coached him? Nick Saban was burned at the stake for going after SEC players that he was familiar with.

The difference being that SEC players typically made pretty damn good pros. We're still waiting for the Big-12 quarterback that came in and achieved something other than getting coaches fired.

fishbanger
03-25-2012, 12:46 PM
Would you take Dalton with the 8th pick or trade 8th pick to conci for Dalton. Cinci wound never do it. He is too valuable. Dalton was a second round pick. Dalton wa the 4th QB in last years class.

I would draft Tannehill at number 8 or trade down worst case and see if he is still there. I doubt Tannehill gets drafted past number 16 pick or the second cleveland pick.

drumzan
03-25-2012, 02:21 PM
I have to agree with this. I dont see Weeden going in the first. Cleveland could grab him at the top of the 2nd if the dont take Tannehill, but I dont see anyone else that might take Weeden before our 2nd round pick.

I could see many teams going for Weeden in round 2 ahead of us. Buffalo might be the most likely. Fitzpatrick doesn't have much guaranteed money in his contract if I recall correctly. St Louis has two picks ahead of the Phins and could take a QB to be Bradford's backup. Tampa and Carolina...who are their backups? And of course, there's Cleveland.

I really think Weeden will be gone before the Phins 2nd round pick. Heck, I could even see Pittsburgh, Green Bay or Baltimore taking him in the 1st round. Those teams know how to assess talent and don't have solid backup QB's.

RockyMtnPhinfan
03-25-2012, 05:36 PM
Switch picks in the second with the Rams. Our 2.10 for their 2.1. That equals a 100 point difference (580 vs 480).
That gives us the first pick on day two- a great position to be in after day one of the draft.
This is all assuming Weeden is available after the first round and Tannehill has been removed from the pool. Then i say we throw them our second pick in the third (220 pts.)
We would be losing close to 120 pts in this scenario but some other compensation could be arranged to get some value back to us.

I am all in for Tannehill at 8 though to be completely honest. If he's there i say we take him and then get a WR in Rd 2. It's a deep WR class.

hooshoops
03-25-2012, 08:19 PM
The draft experts also rated Brady Quinn, Jamarcus Russell, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Brian Brohm, Colt Brennan, Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy, and every other Tom, Dick, and Harry out there as franchise quarterbacks.

Ryan Tannehill was always 1st round physical talent based on upside alone. This isn't news. We discussed it in the draft forum almost a year ago now when looking ahead to the 2012 class. What people always lose sight of is that he was a potential LATE 1st round quarterback prospect based on upside, but in reality an early 2nd round prospect.

He's getting pushed into the top 10 because he's viewed as the #3 quarterback in this class. Using that logic, the #6 QB in this class should be a top 20 pick.

Ryan Tannehill isn't a franchise quarterback right now... he's a project. Hell, he was a project in college for Mike Sherman.

Tannehill's upside is legitimate, but it's a tremendous gamble taking him in the top 10. There's nothing wrong with taking that gamble as long as you're not passing up an elite talent at another position in the process. But that's exactly what Miami is going to do if they take Tannehill at #8.

yeah...now that i'm done looking at tannehill i totally agree with that assessment...there's no qb in this draft worth the #8 pick for us...we should go bpa other position

hooshoops
03-25-2012, 08:27 PM
Would you take Dalton with the 8th pick or trade 8th pick to conci for Dalton. Cinci wound never do it. He is too valuable. Dalton was a second round pick. Dalton wa the 4th QB in last years class.

I would draft Tannehill at number 8 or trade down worst case and see if he is still there. I doubt Tannehill gets drafted past number 16 pick or the second cleveland pick.

ha ha...i wouldn't take dalton for the #42 pick...the last thing i need is another caretaking average qb...the leagues full of em

that kids no franchise qb...

dlockz
03-25-2012, 09:21 PM
ha ha...i wouldn't take dalton for the #42 pick...the last thing i need is another caretaking average qb...the leagues full of em

that kids no franchise qb...

I was never a Dalton fan but year one he played damn good and should get better. He seems more than a caretaker

scottie g
03-25-2012, 09:33 PM
Seriously, Tannehill is so lucky than neither Barkley nor Landry Jones came out, this guy would be a 3rd or 4th round prospect.

If we do end up with Tannehill and we end up being the worst team in the league, then what? We draft Barkley and we pray that someone gives a 4th round pick for Tannehill after investing a 1st?

And don't say we wouldn't draft Barkley, we definitely would. Hell Bud Adams is willing to sign Manning on a 5 year deal after just drafting Jake Locker.now that luck and griffin is property of indy and the skins,theres no qb left worth drafting ,if youre looking for a franchise guy .by the way,theres a reason barkley and jones went back to collage,their both super overrated.

dlockz
03-25-2012, 09:37 PM
now that luck and griffin is property of indy and the skins,theres no qb left worth drafting ,if youre looking for a franchise guy .by the way,theres a reason barkley and jones went back to collage,their both super overrated.

I guess thats why Luck decided to go back to school last year lol. They went back for whatever reason and both are better prospects than anyone on this roster

hooshoops
03-25-2012, 09:48 PM
landry jones blows...tyler wilson why couldn't you have come out dammit...i would feel much better about that...

and you andy dalton fools will see soon enough...

J. David Wannyheimer
03-25-2012, 09:58 PM
Maybe we can convince Barkley to enter the supplemental draft or something, ****.

hooshoops
03-25-2012, 10:00 PM
Maybe we can convince Barkley to enter the supplemental draft or something, ****.

cleveland would beat us too it...they're not that dumb...

i was in the dumps for a month it seemed when barkley decided to stay in school...

dlockz
03-25-2012, 10:00 PM
Maybe we can convince Barkley to enter the supplemental draft or something, ****.

we would still miss out on him lol

hooshoops
03-25-2012, 10:07 PM
i'd like to trade down if its gonna be tannehill but thats easier said than done and can ireland really risk it??? i doubt it...and if these guys are convinced he's a franchise qb in waiting they won't take the chance trading down...he'll be the pick at #8...

this whole thing feels like a damn crap shoot...

dlockz
03-25-2012, 10:09 PM
i'd like to trade down if its gonna be tannehill but thats easier said than done and can ireland really risk it??? i doubt it...and if these guys are convinced he's a franchise qb in waiting they won't take the chance trading down...he'll be the pick at #8...

this whole thing feels like a damn crap shoot...

it always is. I mean who knew Leaf would be a bust. If Sherman likes him he already knows the offense and he is a helluva athlete

hooshoops
03-25-2012, 10:14 PM
it always is. I mean who knew Leaf would be a bust. If Sherman likes him he already knows the offense and he is a helluva athlete

i don't agree with its always a crap shoot...knowing the o and missing quick out routes against off man coverage are different things...or missing edmund gates on a go route by a country mile...etc

its not like the kid has bad footwork...would i say its inconsistent at times yes i would but when you have a level platform and you throw the ball time after time off the mark over the top down the field that starts to make me think that that is a part of your game as a player...a part of what you bring to the table

Harry_Bagpipe
03-25-2012, 10:25 PM
Is it a bud light nite hoops?

hooshoops
03-25-2012, 10:30 PM
Is it a bud light nite hoops?

ha ha...you can probably tell by how much i'm posting...but its actually bud light platinums...the kind of beers that sneak up on you and knock your dick in the dirt...

going down very well...at some point i'll start blowing bubbles

Harry_Bagpipe
03-25-2012, 10:35 PM
ha ha...you can probably tell by how much i'm posting...but its actually bud light platinums...the kind of beers that sneak up on you and knock your dick in the dirt...

going down very well...at some point i'll start blowing bubbles

Yeah. I'm mr fancy pants tonight. Craft beers for me. Lol

MO Dolphan
03-26-2012, 09:44 AM
IF Tannehill is gone, Weeden in the first(after tradedown) or second or Cousins in second(after tradedown)or in the third.

I think the best place for Tannehill to succeed soon and hopefully for a long time, is in Miami!

Kinzua
03-26-2012, 11:41 AM
If Tannehill is gone, then Fin fans should be happy the Fins missed the next JP Losman, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Brady Quinn, Mark Sanchez, etc.

BPA is the way to build a better team.

minus
03-26-2012, 11:51 AM
Floyd will be our pick especially if Fins sign Scott.

minus
03-26-2012, 11:52 AM
If Tannehill is gone, then Fin fans should be happy the Fins missed the next JP Losman, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Brady Quinn, Mark Sanchez, etc.

BPA is the way to build a better team.

True...

fishbanger
03-26-2012, 12:02 PM
Nothing at all like a journeyman QB. Tennehill knows the offense already. He beat RGIII head to head in last years game. Even if he does not start at QB in his first year he could easily start as a WR. He knows the whole playbook as either a starting QB or starting WR. By the way, he is a considered an elite WR already. We are just arguing whether he is an elite QB.

He is nothing like any of the other QBs mentioned in this draft or above posts. Those QBs were not rated number 3 in their draft class. Last year Dalton was rated number 4 QB and went to Cinci with the 35th pick.

Get all your facts straight when comparing.

NYinBostonFin
03-26-2012, 12:04 PM
Nothing at all like a journeyman QB. Tennehill knows the offense already. He beat RGIII head to head in last years game. Even if he does not start at QB in his first year he could easily start as a WR. He knows the whole playbook as either a starting QB or starting WR. By the way, he is a considered an elite WR already. We are just arguing whether he is an elite QB.

He is nothing like any of the other QBs mentioned in this draft or above posts. Those QBs were not rated number 3 in their draft class. Last year Dalton was rated number 4 QB and went to Cinci with the 35th pick.

Get all your facts straight when comparing.

If we are drafting him as our franchise QB...there is no way in hell he should be playing WR on any play.

Kinzua
03-26-2012, 12:23 PM
Nothing at all like a journeyman QB. Tennehill knows the offense already. He beat RGIII head to head in last years game. Even if he does not start at QB in his first year he could easily start as a WR. He knows the whole playbook as either a starting QB or starting WR. By the way, he is a considered an elite WR already. We are just arguing whether he is an elite QB.

He is nothing like any of the other QBs mentioned in this draft or above posts. Those QBs were not rated number 3 in their draft class. Last year Dalton was rated number 4 QB and went to Cinci with the 35th pick.

Get all your facts straight when comparing.

A converted WR drafted to be an "elite" QB? Truly? :lol2: If he had elite talent as either a WR or a QB, he would have been at that position all through college.

mrbunglez
03-26-2012, 08:26 PM
A converted WR drafted to be an "elite" QB? Truly? :lol2: If he had elite talent as either a WR or a QB, he would have been at that position all through college.

He's been a QB his whole career but he switched to WR to be on the field cause he's a team player. Research the kid before you post nonsense.

mrhankey81701
03-26-2012, 10:24 PM
If Tannehill is drafted before we pick take the BPA in every available round, no matter what position they play.

scottie g
03-27-2012, 03:27 AM
I guess thats why Luck decided to go back to school last year lol. They went back for whatever reason and both are better prospects than anyone on this rosterthat's a bad way of looking at things, jjust because it works for one player don't mean it works for everybody.l.jones is inmoble , stairs down his recivers ,lacks composure ....barkley is short with a weak arm ,just seem like a bust waiting to happen. just because their better than our qb's ain't saying sh*t.

dlockz
03-27-2012, 10:46 AM
A converted WR drafted to be an "elite" QB? Truly? :lol2: If he had elite talent as either a WR or a QB, he would have been at that position all through college.

He has always been a qb since high school , he also played db in high school. they already had an established qb so he was gifted atheltically enough to be a starting wr.
he still worked on being a better qb and eventually became the starting qb.