PDA

View Full Version : Weak arm nimble qbs



idaho
04-24-2012, 02:19 AM
"Lightly regarded coming out of college due to his slight build and seemingly weak arm" was the scouting report on Joe Montana coming out of college. Walsh disreguarded the reports to his credit. Alot of qbs have strong arms and are drafted based upon there size and arm strength but fail at the NFL because they are not mentally quick enough to run the ofense or make and anticipate the reads. I believe the mental side of the qb game is much more important and indicative of sucess than arm strength. I remember how everyone was so enamoured with jamarcus Russell throwing the football 50 yards on his knees. We all know how that worked out. John Elway came into the league he had to be taught to put more touch on the ball because of two much ball speed. Does arm strength automactically disqualify a qb who has off the chart intangiables? Besides holding out hope every year that a peyton manning falls into our laps in getting old and is unrealistic. Time to look at the Kellen Moores, Russell Wilsons and Case Keenums of the world.

insom187
04-24-2012, 02:54 AM
There's dozens of times in past drafts scouts make serious mistakes in there evaluations but the bottom line is this stat: Of 122 QBs drafted in rounds 2-7 since 2000 (the Tom Brady draft) only 5 have won a playoff game (Brady, Brees, Garrard, and Bulger who were were all drafted between 2000 and 2002 and T.J. Yates is the only recent draftee). You can shoot that total number up to 6 when you want to count QBs who have started a playoff game because of Andy Dalton last year and Matt Schaub has had a solid career despite no playoff wins or appearances (because of injury last year). In 12 years .04% of quarterbacks drafted in rounds 2-7 have won a playoff game compared to 37% of QBs drafted in the first round in the same time span. Again, scouts will make mistakes, obviously Montana, Rice and Brady are shinning examples and in the decade before this time period there were multiple later round QBs that found postseason success but lately that is just not the case. We can take one of these later round guys if need be but the team must focus its gaze on eventually finding that first round talent to really take us places.

Awsi Dooger
04-24-2012, 03:48 AM
I'd love to make a case for Kellen Moore, after winning so many bets on Boise State. But seriously, how does he function on 3rd and 10, asked to make a 5 step drop and hit a dart between linebackers. Despite all his strengths like great anticipation, Moore logically can't be projected at 7 YPA, or anything resembling that, as a starter. Boise State runs better schemes than anyone in the country, boosting Moore's stock. I watched the Georgia game multiple times and still couldn't believe how sophisticated they were, making a top SEC pass defense -- eventually 4th in the country in YPA -- look stupid. This was the same program that wiped out Oregon's offense in the 2009 opener.

Wilson is an interesting prospect, with all the subtle roll outs or scrambles and then settling into an ideal throwing window, often deep behind the line of scrimmage. He seems like the type who could have stood on the bow of the Titanic and located the overturned collapsible at the last second. Somebody posted it was only 5-7 times per game. That's a high number, a significant percentage of overall throws. And the sample invariably included a major tipping point or two. Wilson did tend to loop those throws. In the NFL it would be covering plenty of distance with safeties waiting to gobble.

Wilson's arm is fine. Arm strength is overrated only if you meet the minimum whip level to make the vital throws in traffic, the 3rd and 10 darts. Griese had it. So did Starr and Montana. Countless other examples. Matt Leinart was missing a crucial 10%. I remember I wanted to believe in him, as a USC alum, and preferred him to Vince Young but deep down I worried he was overly touch oriented and 10% shy in both velocity and athletic ability. Cade McNown was similar. Other guys like Tim Couch have borderline arms but awful elongated mechanics so the ball shows up late. On Las Vegas radio I was ripped for months for insisting Todd Marinovich had a junior varsity arm and would never pan out in the NFL. That station reached the entire west coast so the USC fans were relentless. Meanwhile, there were 4 or 5 examples at USC where Marinovich refused to throw Hail Marys from midfield range. It was comical. He'd wait forever to be sacked so there was no chance to expose his arm. One time the opponent rushed only three and never threatened Marinovich. He waited desperately for more than 5 seconds then threw a bizarre dump off pass to a stunned back 5 yards away. The announcers were baffled but not anyone who followed Marinovich's career. It's still unbelievable that he's held as as example of someone who could have been great minus the off field issues. The weak arm would have quickly relegated him to backup status or out of the league. In his final NFL start, an opposing defensive lineman summarized Marinovich accurately; "Their quarterback was throwing ducks."

I'm sure there are some worthwhile investments out there, sleepers with suitable arms. TedSlimm identified the kid from Tulsa.

LANGER72
04-24-2012, 09:09 AM
I agree that you can take the undersized QB and evaluate in camp. But if I have only one luxury pick in this draft, I would gamble on Brock Osweiler this year.
He has that quick dart throw (as praised in Camp Gruden), plus the size and athleticism that you look for in a NFL starter. The guy is immature and needs to be in camp and be brought along slowly. I am loving all the negative publicity about him. Let him fall.
Getting back to the guys with weak arms. NFL history is full of them. Bob Griese, Joe Montana, Chad Pennington, Dilfer, and lots of others. Those guys can win on dominant teams that have effective running games and dominant defenses. The are just another part, and not the focal point.
If Kellen Moore is undrafted, we should sign him. He won a lot of games. It was no accident. You never know.

PSU Cane
04-24-2012, 12:07 PM
I agree that you can take the undersized QB and evaluate in camp. But if I have only one luxury pick in this draft, I would gamble on Brock Osweiler this year.
He has that quick dart throw (as praised in Camp Gruden), plus the size and athleticism that you look for in a NFL starter. The guy is immature and needs to be in camp and be brought along slowly. I am loving all the negative publicity about him. Let him fall.
Getting back to the guys with weak arms. NFL history is full of them. Bob Griese, Joe Montana, Chad Pennington, Dilfer, and lots of others. Those guys can win on dominant teams that have effective running games and dominant defenses. The are just another part, and not the focal point.
If Kellen Moore is undrafted, we should sign him. He won a lot of games. It was no accident. You never know.

Ken Dorsey won a lot of games as well. But like Moore, his arm kept him from every becoming more than a backup (he had a slower release than Moore but better size).

Moore was a fantastic college QB but i just can't see how he'll be able to throw the ball as early as he did in college b/c the lanes won't be there. Boise was great at spreading teams around and opening up those huge passing lanes. In the NFL, those windows will be much tighter with combo coverages, so guys playing a bandit/robber position or quarters coverage watching Moore as they drop back into their zones will be able to jump those throws he needs to get rid of so early b/c of arm strength. Would i take him on my team if he went undrafted to see if he could prove me wrong? Absolutely. Would i spend a late round draft pick on him? No.

Mudder1310
04-24-2012, 01:28 PM
There's a place for Moore, and it could be in a WCO. Montana and Moore are very similar physically and showing leadership. It sure didn't hurt Joe Cool to throw to Clark, Rice, and other all=pros. Will Moore get the same chance? Did Joe make them better? I would suggest that Moores best chance is to go to a team loaded with skill players and get a chance through the starters injury. Pittsburgh or maybe SF.

woody1351
04-24-2012, 03:08 PM
I like russell wilson a lot. if he ever gets a chance i think he will be a good qb.