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Milk Man
04-24-2012, 03:20 PM
With thedraft just around the corner I’ve been trying to predict which player Miamiwill select with the #8 pick in the NFL Draft 2012. I’m sure lots of Miami fansare doing this also and there are an endless supply of mock drafts out there tosatisfy any appetite. However, I wanted to take a deeper look as to the decision-makingthat the team will go through and not just simply assign a trendy name to thepick.
What areMiami’s primary needs going forward?
1. OL Help – Joe Philbin has come out andsaid this many times, he is a former OL coach and he knows that whatever trickshe has up his sleeve for the entire offence – they probably won’t work withoutproper OL protection. Additionally, Ireland pays attention to his OL and DL askey foundations to building an effective team (not that our OL shows it after 4years of him as GM).
2. DE/OLB – Miami need someone to get tothe QB other that Wake and finding a DE or OLB critical to Miami’s D this year.Failing in this aspect likely means the Phins take a big step back from the #6ranked defensive unit last year.
3. WR – Miami has plenty of depth andduplication amongst its WR staff but finding a young, developmental type WR whocan come in and learn the west coast offence is an important building blockwhich will pay dividends for years to come.
4. QB – I’m inclined to type “FranchiseQB” here but alas they may only have two of those available in this year’sdraft and both will be long gone before Miami picks at 8. Thus the term “DevelopmentalQB” may be more appropriate to cover this need. Either way, finding a young QBfor Philbin and OC Sherman to sink their teeth into is critical.
5. DB – be it CB or S Miami needs depthas one or more of the existing starters could be leaving next year. The good newsis that DC Croyle has worked wonders with this unit in his previous life as DBcoach in Cincinnati.
With theneeds premise established, who are the players that MAY be available at pick #8on Thursday night?
· QuintonCoples – DE
· MelvinIngram – OLB
· FletcherCox – DT (DE in 3-4)
· JustinBlackmon – WR
· DavidDeCastro – OG
· RileyReiff – OT
· MarkBarron – S
· RyanTannehill – QB
How do theyfit? As Ireland repeated in his pre-draft press conference last week, as a GMyou have to be disciplined and stay true to your draft board. When the player’srank aligns with the team’s need you pull the trigger.
· QuintonCoples – DE – Jeff Ireland, as did his predecessor Bill Parcells, can’t getenough of these types of players. Big, strong, fast – that is the prototype. Nevermind that Coples had a bit of a letdown last year vs. his play the previousseason, he has the ability in him and Ireland would want to believe that hiscoaches can get it out of him. If Miami can catch magic in a bottle here itwould be a no brainer – a player who would fit a need and deliver 10-15 sacks ayear for 6-10 years – Bravo!
· MelvinIngram – OLB – I suppose Ingram could be a DE in a 4-3 but he may be easilyabsorbed by bigger, stronger OTs he will go up against. He would be moreeffective as an OLB rushing the QB out of a 3-4, but the problem with that isit duplicates Wake’s skill set. With both playing OLB and rushing the QB who iscovering the TE. Plus Ingram has only had one year of serious production.Bottom line, if he were 4 inches taller he would be in serious contention butas it is, I don’t see the value.
· FletcherCox – DT – More than DE or OLB, Miami needs players to put pressure on opposingQBs. Cox just happens to do that from the DT position. If Miami is in a 3-4 hecould start and have success as a DE rushing the passer, if in 4-3 he is backto DT doing the same. With a big body like Soali next to him to clog up the runthis could well be the direction the Phins take. It would come down to the mentalmakeup of Cox vs. Coples and who Miami feels more comfortable with.
· JustinBlackmon – WR – I doubt that Blackmon would be available at pick #8 but if hewas I imagine he would deserve serious consideration. Two questions would immediatelycome to my mind if I was Ireland – 1) IsBlackmon elite? He is only 6.01 and does not have blinding speed – but he hadbeen durable and productive. Does this make him comparable to Antoine Boldin?2) Can I find quality receives later in the draft? If the answer to 1) is noand 2) yes, then Ireland should try to trade the pick or pass on Blackmon.
· DavidDeCastro – OG – Certainly not a sexy name for consideration I’m sure, but allyou need to know about DeCastro is that the name most scouts associate with isSteve Hutchinson. If Miami gets an 80% return on that bet it would be a greatpick for them. With Long, Pouncy and DeCastro, Miami would have the young,solid nucleus that Philbin could work his magic on.
· RileyReiff – OT – I suppose that there would be strong support for this player giventhat his former head coach at Iowa is a member of Miami’s staff (WR Coach) butsome serious questions have emerged about this once top 10 hopeful pick. 1) arehis arms long enough for a OT in the NFL and 2) is he strong enough? You cantake care of #2 in the weight room but short arms can lead to position changesand Reiff may find playing time as a Guard. If that’s the case then DeCastro isthe better player hands down.
· MarkBarron – S – The best of what is a weak S class this year Barron is known to bea heady player with quick recognition skills. He is not great in open space orin coverage (1 on 1) but is physical once he gets his hands on the player.Would he help Miami? Yes, he would probably start – but in a Need vs. Value conversationhe probably is not worth the pick.
· RyanTannehill – QB – As I mentioned earlier, there are probably only two QBs worthyof the label “Franchise QB” in this year’s draft and Tannehill isn’t one of them. Than is not tosay that he could not one day develop into one either. He has the physicalgifts and smarts to be great, but after 19 college starts we just have not seenhim put it all together consistently enough. Case at point – he does not haveone come from behind win for his team in the 4th quarter. Miami hasthe most information on him as OC Sherman was his head coach in College, but asa seasoned NFL coach who knows how important that position is and the value ofthe 8th pick to the franchise (if he is wrong it could cost him andhis good friend HC Philbin this jobs) is he fighting for Ireland to pick him?If I’m Ireland and this is not how it’s playing out, I’m looking to takeanother developmental QB later on in the draft.
So, with thisanalysis done, what are the realistic options for Miami picking at #8?
· Coples– DE
· Cox– DT
· DeCastro– G
· TradeDown
What would Ido if I were GM?
· Tradedown or pick Coples.
What wouldyou do?

Phins117
04-24-2012, 03:34 PM
trade down. Acquire more picks than trade to get a second first pick and get weeden and a top wr.

fishfanmiami
04-24-2012, 03:39 PM
Good write up Milk.

fishfanmiami
04-24-2012, 03:41 PM
trade down. Acquire more picks than trade to get a second first pick and get weeden and a top wr.
Wouldn't that be nice.i understand several teams would like to trade down. Might be hard to do.

JFoxx
04-24-2012, 03:44 PM
They've gone VERY conservative that last few years, not taking any huge risks, so I will assume the same from Ireland. And if that's the case, then Tannehill is not the pick. Neither is Coples, as he's a huge risk/reward guy. WR is always a risk in the 1st, and almost anyone else in the "safe" zone is too high at #8. I think they trade down with someone wanting a top WR and pick up a 2nd in the process (because we know how great we are at 2nd round picks). They grab a OL, DE or LB in the middle of the 1st and get some other holes filled in the 2nd. They won't be flashy names, so be prepared for terms like "solid; stable; potential starter material". In the end I see us plugging holes with able bodies, but get no real "impact" players.

Whitedolphin54
04-24-2012, 03:45 PM
People keep saying trade down and I would love to, but I don't think it is as easy as that. There are a couple of scenarios that could work out, but it's just not a given right now.

JFoxx
04-24-2012, 03:56 PM
It depends on who's there at #8 when we pick as to how easy it will be trade down. Blackmon likely will get us a number of offers, but do we take it or get what probably will be a franchise WR we just lost ? I don't see any true franchise QB's after the #2 pick, so maybe get our elite WR this year and frachised QB next year. But didn't we say the same thing the last ??? years?

t-dubya
04-24-2012, 04:48 PM
RileyReiff – OT – I suppose that there would be strong support for this player giventhat his former head coach at Iowa is a member of Miami’s staff (WR Coach) butsome serious questions have emerged about this once top 10 hopeful pick. 1) arehis arms long enough for a OT in the NFL and 2) is he strong enough? You cantake care of #2 in the weight room but short arms can lead to position changesand Reiff may find playing time as a Guard. If that’s the case then DeCastro isthe better player hands down.
Kirk ferentz is not our wr coach, his oc at Iowa ken o keefe is our wr coach, I agree though if they're taking a lineman I would prefer decastro.

Exuro
04-24-2012, 07:25 PM
I'd rather take an elite prospect and have to trade up for a QB then trade back for more picks. Ideally they could trade a 2013 3rd rounder, which is equivalent value to a 2012 4rd rounder, and still have 4 picks on Day 1 and 2.

Also T-dub, I will forever hate Ted Ginn for dropping that pass. Not only was it a potential game winning touchdown, it may have also been the longest pass of Chad Pennington's career. He ran like 10 yards and bombed it at the LoS and hit the mark, only for that pansy to drop it. Good riddance.

AZStryker
04-24-2012, 07:30 PM
Coples, Cox, or Decastro just might be enough to induce a riot in Miami.

Exuro
04-24-2012, 07:37 PM
If Miami is going to play more 4-3 base sets Coples is a fine pick, Wake is currently a hold out and a FA next year. a Nickel Dline of Coples Odrick Starks and Wake would be insane.

finfan54
04-24-2012, 09:14 PM
Nice write up Milk! Common sense at its core.

I will be very happy if we draft Decastro. If that causes a riot, I will laugh at the rioters. People have no clue how dominant this Oline would be with Decastro and Pouncey in the middle and an answer at RT. Reggie Bush and Matt Moore will thrive.

Coples is also a pure DE who can play all downs and not just pass rush. He could also play DT in a pinch. He is the type of DE who lets us just rush 4 and cover with rest which is needed versus NE.

I like Tannehill and his style of playing QB is what this team needs. One who rolls out with athleticism and makes plays on his feet. Trade down is the only way this happens to me or that we trade picks and move back up into 1st.

The WR class is deep with all kinds of shapes and sizes.

SF Dolphin Fan
04-24-2012, 11:27 PM
Nice write up. I think both Weeden and Tannehill could be franchise quarterbacks, but Weeden could be right away and Tannehill will take some time. Not sure this organization would take Weeden based on his age and they haven't shown much interest in terms of meeting with him. But under this scenario, I'd try to trade back maybe with Dallas at #14 (Cowboys are said to want Barron) and take either Tannehill if he slides or Weeden. Then the team would have two #2's and two #3's to do some serious damage.

SF Dolphin Fan
04-24-2012, 11:30 PM
If Miami is going to play more 4-3 base sets Coples is a fine pick, Wake is currently a hold out and a FA next year. a Nickel Dline of Coples Odrick Starks and Wake would be insane.Yeah, that would be nice. If Coples is the pick I hope the team can move up and get Weeden, but I think we might be looking at Cousins as our qb in this scenario. I would actually love the pass rush if the Dolphins managed to get Coples and Irvin. In a 4-3 Miami could get Coples, Wake and Irvin on the field at the same time.

Phin-Phan 66
04-25-2012, 12:26 AM
Coples has great measurables. My question about him is his heart. He was said to take plays off.
If he can't go all out in the ACC, he's too big a risk for me at #8.
We just can't afford to miss on a top 10 pick.

t-dubya
04-25-2012, 10:57 AM
I'd rather take an elite prospect and have to trade up for a QB then trade back for more picks. Ideally they could trade a 2013 3rd rounder, which is equivalent value to a 2012 4rd rounder, and still have 4 picks on Day 1 and 2.

Also T-dub, I will forever hate Ted Ginn for dropping that pass. Not only was it a potential game winning touchdown, it may have also been the longest pass of Chad Pennington's career. He ran like 10 yards and bombed it at the LoS and hit the mark, only for that pansy to drop it. Good riddance.
45 min time of pos and we lost... I will change my sig when I get over it :)