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View Full Version : The changing electoral college map.



Tetragrammaton
08-12-2012, 04:06 PM
And Romney almost certainly must win three of these four states to take the White House. Except for Ohio, which seems almost sure to continue shedding electoral votes thanks to sluggish population growth, all of them have demographic trends that favor Democrats. Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina (which saw an amazing 111 percent Latino population growth) are both adding younger people, college graduates and increasingly democratic-leaning Latino voters at a rapid rate. Cultural shifts and urbanization, likewise, are skewing once "purple" Northern Virginia suburbs and North Carolina's Research Triangle area into strongly blue areas. If any of these states turn solidly blue at the national level over the next few cycles (Virginia seems particularly likely), the calculus will turn even more against Republicans to win the electoral college.


http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/08/12/electoral-math.html

Troubling news for Republicans if things keep going as everyone predicts they should. The Tea Party hysteria and the rigid laissez-faire doctrine is going to have to be adjusted to stay competitive.

CedarPhin
08-12-2012, 04:09 PM
Unless something drastic happens, I can't see Obama losing this. I've been saying it for awhile now.

Tetragrammaton
08-12-2012, 04:14 PM
Unless something drastic happens, I can't see Obama losing this. I've been saying it for awhile now.

It isn't there. Republicans are making a big deal about Romney's crowds in North Carolina, but he still needs to conquer Florida, Ohio, the Southwest, and Virginia. Obama leads so well in Ohio that it is pretty much done.

Tetragrammaton
08-12-2012, 04:17 PM
Republicans are saying they might take Wisconsin now. So what? Even if they do, and win Florida and North Carolina, Obama still has several ways to 270.

Spesh
08-12-2012, 04:29 PM
Republicans are saying they might take Wisconsin now. So what? Even if they do, and win Florida and North Carolina, Obama still has several ways to 270.

After picking Ryan for Vp, i cant see Romney winning Florida.

Rubio will continue pulling for Romney(obviously), but people will be annoyed that he was so easily passed over. Couple that with it already leaning towards Obama, Ryan's planned retooling of Medicare, and his opposition to the Cuban embargo, it will be tough to win back Florida. If Obama lands Florida with ease, this election is basically over.

JamesBW43
08-13-2012, 01:42 PM
Have to wonder what will happen if this isn't just a temporary shift. How will the Republican party react? Or the tea party crowd?

All it took for them to make a hard turn to the right was the mere appearance of a liberal President. What happens if the democrats gain a big enough lead to run actual liberal candidates?

Locke
08-13-2012, 01:50 PM
Have to wonder what will happen if this isn't just a temporary shift. How will the Republican party react? Or the tea party crowd?

All it took for them to make a hard turn to the right was the mere appearance of a liberal President. What happens if the democrats gain a big enough lead to run actual liberal candidates?

Bricks will be shat, in epic proportions. We will see aneurisms all over the place...

Tetragrammaton
08-13-2012, 03:02 PM
This is why Republicans have been so anti-immigration over the years. You see the results in many Southwestern states, and over time you will even see it in Texas. As more and more of the health care bill is implemented and more people start to approve of it, the numbers will change more.

NY8123
08-13-2012, 03:25 PM
What would happen if the American public were so fed up with all the candidates that a fictional write in won?

Locke
08-13-2012, 03:49 PM
What would happen if the American public were so fed up with all the candidates that a fictional write in won?

That's about as likely as the Loch Ness Monster tap dancing across the Panama Canal...

NY8123
08-13-2012, 03:51 PM
That's about as likely as the Loch Ness Monster tap dancing across the Panama Canal...

I'd vote for Nessy!

Locke
08-13-2012, 03:52 PM
I'd vote for Nessy!

Me too. Would be a better candidate than these clowns the GoP are parading around. Might handle the economy better than Obama too...