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View Full Version : Miami likely to get a compensatory pick in 2013



Nublar7
09-06-2012, 08:13 PM
Looking towards the 2013 draft, the Dolphins could be in line for a compensatory pick. A compensatory pick is an extra draft pick that the NFL awards to teams that lost more qualifying unrestricted free agents than they gained(there are only 32 total picks and one single team can get a maximum of 4). They have to be a TRUE unrestricted free agent, they can't be a player that was released or traded to the team. Or a player that missed the prior season for whatever reason. They had to have had their contract expire when the new league year began in March. The formula for the compensatory picks is not public knowledge, but people have sort of guessed how it works over the course of the past decade. It is believed that the player has to sign before August, so in this case Ikaika Alama-Francis of the 49ers likely doesn't count as a "loss" for the Dolphins. The formula takes into account the size of the contract, the amount of playing time and any post season player awards. Contract and playing time appear to be the biggest part of it. So lets take a look at who the Dolphins signed and lost and who likely is the qualifying players.


Projected Dolphins Signed qualifiers:

Legadu Naanee - (1 year, $700,000)
Artis Hicks - (1 year, $2,000,000)
Richard Marshall - (3 years, $16,000,000)

Projected Dolphins Lost qualifiers:

Chad Henne - (2 years, $6,750,000)
Will Allen (1 year, $1,000,000)
Kendall Langford - (4 years, $24,000,000)
Marvin Mitchell - (1 year, $725,000)

Now as you can see, Miami likely will have more qualifying losses than gains. Players without similar deals and production usually cancel each other out. So, since Hicks and Allen have similar deals and were placed on IR before the season started, safe to say the cancel each other out. I don't expect Naanee to have a huge impact at WR, and Mitchell is a backup in Minnesota, they probably will cancel each other out. Now, if Marshall and Langford both start the entire season as expected, you can probably cancel those two out also. Which, in the end leaves Chad Henne and his 2 year, $6,750,000 contract. Assuming he is the backup all year and that his AVERAGE salary is $3,375,000 per season, my early projection is either an additional 6th or 7th round pick. All depends on how things play out, but it does look like Miami will be getting a compensatory pick in 2013.

SMadison29
09-11-2012, 10:51 AM
Comparing Henne's salary to the players teams were awarded compensation for last year it looks like Henne will net us an additional 6th round pick.

DefensiveEnd76
09-14-2012, 09:35 PM
So in other words, we finally get something out of Henne.

ddfin13
09-30-2012, 09:39 PM
we need to get at least something for all the crap FA's we got

Zounds
10-02-2012, 10:06 AM
Henne may end up starting some games this year too....

Exuro
10-02-2012, 11:40 AM
there is also a floor the comp pick formula, which is around 875k or the vet minimum. I don't think Mitchel or Naanee, or Allen qualify. I agree that Marshall will cancel out Langford. There is the possibility that Hicks may cancel out Henne, or even downgrade the comp pick. I'm thinking a 7th round comp pick for 2013.

BC26
10-09-2012, 12:25 PM
We need that pick for a new kicker.

Nublar7
12-07-2012, 12:58 PM
I would have to say Miami's chances at a compensatory pick has improved over the course of this season. Both Naanee and Hicks have been cut by the Dolphins, Langford has started every game so far for the Rams and now Henne is the starting QB in Jacksonville. Looks promising that Miami will get a compensatory pick, might even be in the 5th round range now.

Exuro
12-07-2012, 03:19 PM
I wonder how Marshall's lack of playtime and going on IR will affect the comp pick Miami receives.

Nublar7
12-07-2012, 05:34 PM
I wonder how Marshall's lack of playtime and going on IR will affect the comp pick Miami receives.

It certainly will help the Dolphins chances.

Roman529
12-07-2012, 06:40 PM
Figuring out how they award compensatory picks is tougher than defining what is "making a football move" after a wide receiver catches the ball. :chuckle:

gfran
12-08-2012, 05:09 PM
Figuring out how they award compensatory picks is tougher than defining what is "making a football move" after a wide receiver catches the ball. :chuckle:

sure but I tend to subscribe to Nublar assessment of a 5th or 6th round pick for Henne, just MHO ...

2413fanphins
12-08-2012, 05:41 PM
an additional 5th round pick would be very much welcome. multiple picks in three rounds... we could find some solid depth with those fifth rounders... but something is better than nothing, I'd be happy with whatever we get.

MrEd
01-04-2013, 11:14 AM
Does Gaffney or the waiver wire pick ups ie Patterson, Miller, Armstrong count towards affecting the calculations. Marshall's playing time vs Langford hopefully plays part in equation and Henne's playing time.

ckparrothead
01-04-2013, 11:45 AM
It certainly will help the Dolphins chances.

Not so sure about that. The compensatory process has been relayed to me as being extremely formulaic, hence there are some people that are pretty sure they've got it nailed down and they're able to predict within a small margin what picks are going to be handed out each year. Marshall's lack of playing time and spending time on IR strikes me as a non-formulaic consideration that would be hard to plug into a formulaic construct.

Pat-London
01-04-2013, 12:04 PM
Not so sure about that. The compensatory process has been relayed to me as being extremely formulaic, hence there are some people that are pretty sure they've got it nailed down and they're able to predict within a small margin what picks are going to be handed out each year. Marshall's lack of playing time and spending time on IR strikes me as a non-formulaic consideration that would be hard to plug into a formulaic construct.

Now there's a word you don't hear that much.... FORMULAIC...

and sounds to me that you enjoyed using it :)

Ta for the info.

Danny
01-04-2013, 01:34 PM
Whoever came up with the formula decided that no matter what, we'd get an extra 6th round pick once every 3 years while NE gets 4 picks(all in the 3rd round)every year.

Ozzy rules!!

Nublar7
01-04-2013, 01:42 PM
Not so sure about that. The compensatory process has been relayed to me as being extremely formulaic, hence there are some people that are pretty sure they've got it nailed down and they're able to predict within a small margin what picks are going to be handed out each year. Marshall's lack of playing time and spending time on IR strikes me as a non-formulaic consideration that would be hard to plug into a formulaic construct.
Playing time is part of the formula, and the fact that Marshall didn't play much will help Miami's chances. Just like Henne starting at the end of the season in Jacksonville will also help.

ckparrothead
01-04-2013, 02:15 PM
Playing time is part of the formula, and the fact that Marshall didn't play much will help Miami's chances. Just like Henne starting at the end of the season in Jacksonville will also help.

Link?

SMadison29
01-04-2013, 02:48 PM
Any compensation pick formula questions should go to a guy that uses the screen name AdamJT13 on various NFL/Draft message boards. He's the only person I've ever encountered that has predicted the picks with a high success rate.

Geforce
01-04-2013, 02:49 PM
From NFL.com
http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/09000d5d827e13f2/article/nfl-distributes-compensatory-draft-picks-to-15-clubs

Compensatory free agents are determined by a formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. The formula was developed by the NFL Management Council. Not every free agent lost or signed by a club is covered by this formula.

ckparrothead
01-04-2013, 02:52 PM
From NFL.com
http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/09000d5d827e13f2/article/nfl-distributes-compensatory-draft-picks-to-15-clubs

Well there you have it.

Nublar7
01-04-2013, 02:57 PM
Link?Take your pick:

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/09000d5d827e13f2/article/nfl-distributes-compensatory-draft-picks-to-15-clubs


Compensatory free agents are determined by a formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. The formula was developed by the NFL Management Council. Not every free agent lost or signed by a club is covered by this formula.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Football_League_Draft


Compensatory picks cannot be traded, and the placement of the picks is determined by a proprietary formula based on the player's salary, playing time, and postseason honors with his new team, with salary being the primary factor.

http://www.cbssports.com/general/blog/rob-rang/18065499/nfl-awards-15-teams-compensatory-picks-for-use-in-the-2012-draft


Compensatory free agents are determined by a formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. The formula was developed by the NFL Management Council.

http://www.nj.com/giants/index.ssf/2012/03/nfl_awards_giants_a_fourth-rou.html


The process is based on a secret formula developed by the NFL Management Council that takes into account salary, playing time and postseason honors.

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/NFL-compensatory-picks-Oakland-Raiders-Cleveland-Browns-Green-Bay-Packers-awarded-032612


Compensatory picks are awarded based on a complex NFL management council formula that accounts for the net loss of free agents based how many a team signed and surrendered, while accounting for salary, playing time and postseason honors.

http://www.profootballweekly.com/2012/03/26/nfl-awards-compensatory-picks-raiders-nab-third-ro


The NFL uses a formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors to determine compensatory free agents.

This is from the guy most known around the internet who is most accurate in predicting compensatory picks:

http://adamjt13.blogspot.com/2010/03/projecting-2010-compensatory-nfl-draft.html


Compensatory free agents are determined by a secret formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors.

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfceast/post/_/id/37455/cowboys-giants-each-pick-up-a-pick


Not every free agent is deemed to have compensatory-pick value, based on the league's formula that takes into account salary, playing time and postseason honors.

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/thehuddle/post/2011/03/nfl-draft-compensatory-picks-announced/1


A formula devised by the NFL's Management Council considers a free agent's salary, playing time and postseason honors in order to determine the value of each compensatory pick.

Nublar7
01-06-2013, 01:42 PM
http://www.detroitlionsdraft.com/2013/01/predicting-the-compensatory-pick/2/

This guy predicts a 6th and 7th round pick for the Dophins.

Buddy
01-06-2013, 02:09 PM
Well there you have it.

Wow, so we didn't get squat. Why does that not surprise me?

Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2

Buddy
01-06-2013, 02:11 PM
Wow, so we didn't get squat. Why does that not surprise me?

Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2

Ok, I just looked at the date on that article...I am a dumb ass!

Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2

Nublar7
01-06-2013, 04:02 PM
Ok, I just looked at the date on that article...I am a dumb ass!

Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2
We will get something this. Maybe two picks, but more likely just one.

SCall13
01-29-2013, 07:56 AM
We should get a 6th and probably a 7th

ckparrothead
01-29-2013, 02:10 PM
I am not sure if you saw this or not Nublar but CK posted the work you did in the first post of this thread on another Dolphins fan site. Didn't give you credit and seemed to try and pass it off as his own work, yet part of it was clearly just a copy and paste of the original post.

LOL. Way to come off looking like a 6 year old girl tattling to mommy.

For the record, I don't believe I did anything wrong and here is exactly what I posted, all of the information which I verified myself independently and even edited to dis-include a player that Nublar7 had mistakenly included.


The qualifying signings and losses would be the following, IMO:

Projected Dolphins Signed qualifiers:
Artis Hicks - (1 year, $2,000,000)
Richard Marshall - (3 years, $16,000,000)

Projected Dolphins Lost qualifiers:
Chad Henne - (2 years, $6,750,000)
Will Allen - (1 year, $1,000,000)
Kendall Langford - (4 years, $24,000,000)

If what this CT guy says is true about signed plays canceling out guys with similar contracts or lower contracts, before higher contracts...then it would seem Richard Marshall would cancel out Chad Henne, Artis Hicks will cancel out Will Allen, and that would leave Kendall Langford uncanceled.

I'm an open book. If anyone has a problem with this please feel free to discuss it with me.

EDIT: The reason I noted that this was "IMO" instead of the opinion of Nublar7 was specifically because Nublar7 thought Legedu Naanee would be included in the formula whereas I have come to believe that he would not be because his contract is not over the million dollar threshold. Just wanted to explain that.

ckparrothead
01-29-2013, 04:03 PM
It is lazy to copy and paste something another person took time to write out. Your verification process was highlighting what Nublar typed out and copied and pasted it on another forum. You did edit a couple of players out and tried to update it and improve on it but the foundation of your post was a copy and paste job. That is just lazy in my opinion.

You even admitted in this thread earlier that you really didn't understand the compensatory process and mistakenly left out playing time until Geforce corrected you. You are not a guru on compensatory picks so don't pretend like you are. My beef isn't that you used the same exact information that Nublar did because that information is out on the internet that everyone can find and use. My disappointment is that you took his original post and flat out copied and pasted it. Again that is just lazy.

1. We're talking about a forum post, not a newspaper or blog article. And not even a forum THREAD. Just a post within a thread saying what I think. No, it's not in any way whatsoever out of bounds to copy and paste a list over in a forum post, especially when you verify the information yourself and edit it in order to impress your opinion onto it.

2. No, that was not my verification process. I verified that the contract values were close enough to correct, and I double-checked each name on the list to see if it met the criteria for inclusion in the compensatory pick formulas. Hence, I edited out Legedu Naanee who does not meet the criteria.

3. Who said I'm a compensatory pick "guru"? Certainly not me. Yes, I admitted right here in this thread that I don't know the compensatory pick process very well. Hence in the three weeks or so between this thread and the other one, at SOME point I actually LEARNED more about the compensatory process. And that's how I knew Legedu's contract probably wouldn't qualify for the process. Whaaaa? You mean I don't come in here, post on a thread, and then go into hibernation until the next thread? LMFAO.

4. Are you Chris Cordero? Because this is actually pretty funny.

Nublar7
01-29-2013, 04:24 PM
Honestly I am not going to get worked up over CK copying and pasting my post as his own on another Dolphins message board. I don't know what site this happened on nor do I really have the desire to try and search it out. This is the largest Dolphins fan site on the internet so I know my thread reached more users than any "rival" website. If CK wants to use my posts on other message boards, that is up to him, I can't stop him. I guess it is flattering? Anyways, I am not going to really make a big deal about it or investigate the allegation further than what was revealed in this thread.

ckparrothead
01-29-2013, 04:36 PM
Honestly I am not going to get worked up over CK copying and pasting my post as his own on another Dolphins message board. I don't know what site this happened on nor do I really have the desire to try and search it out. This is the largest Dolphins fan site on the internet so I know my thread reached more users than any "rival" website. If CK wants to use my posts on other message boards, that is up to him, I can't stop him. I guess it is flattering? Anyways, I am not going to really make a big deal about it or investigate the allegation further than what was revealed in this thread.

There's no need to go far to investigate. I posted exactly what I posted over there right here inside this thread. Look at it as you wish. I copied a list of 6 players and edited it using information that I gathered on my own, and then posted it as like the 35th post down in a thread that someone else created. I did nothing wrong whatsoever.

EDIT: My apologies, your list included 7 players. I pared it down to the 5 players that actually matter.

fish_fan
01-29-2013, 04:37 PM
Without a horse in this race, I'd like to point out that all that was copied was the table of data. No analysis or thoughts of Nublars was posted.

I was actually hoping for something a lot juicier when I went looking for it :)

ckparrothead
01-29-2013, 04:40 PM
Without a horse in this race, I'd like to point out that all that was copied was the table of data. No analysis or thoughts of Nublars was posted.

Well, I thank you for at least being objective. The entire issue reeks of personal vendetta anyway. Doesn't matter, no skin off my nose.

fish_fan
01-29-2013, 04:53 PM
Well, I thank you for at least being objective. The entire issue reeks of personal vendetta anyway. Doesn't matter, no skin off my nose.

Non issue to me. Also, good job on Nublar getting the data out there too!

tylerdolphin
01-29-2013, 04:54 PM
http://www.finheaven.com/images/imported/2013/01/30294516-1.jpg

ckparrothead
01-29-2013, 04:57 PM
What's ironic is that I'm generally sensitive to this issue since it has happened to me so often.

There is a poster here, I honestly forget which one, he was an "official" this or that, newshound maybe or something like that (not Robi). Might've even been a mod. I believe twice he took the entire body of text I wrote in an original post on a different message board (we're talking 1,000+ words of original prose) and posted it in here, changing around the wording to make it first person and make it seem like he wrote it. This guy usually just posts threads with links to news articles so when I launched complaints that's generally how it was excused...but the full text was copied and words were specifically changed to make it first person.

Aside from that, one of our Draft Winds pieces was ripped off by Armando Salguero and we actually had to get the Sun Sentinel to flex some legal muscle as Salguero's editor was threatening to sue us for these untrue accusations of plagiarism (that were actually true).

I also got ripped off by ThePhinsider.com once. That wasn't very nice.

Anyway, my apologies if it came off like I was ripping anyone off. I certainly was not.

2413fanphins
01-29-2013, 08:58 PM
wow... this was almost nostalgic for me in a way... took me back to the heated ryan mallet debates I used to read on here that year he was drafted.

loved the pic message of it escalating quickly or however it was worded... I even snorted when I was laughing from when I read that.. hahaha....

thanks for the laugh guys!! PEACE

Dolfan23
02-27-2013, 12:22 PM
The site listed below projects that the Dolphins will get a 4th for Langford and apparently they were very accurate the year before in their projections, so let's hope they are accurate for us this year as well.

http://bloggingthebeast.com/2013/01/27/2013-nfl-compensatory-pick-projections/

finfan54
02-27-2013, 07:17 PM
that would be teets!

ITS!MATEO
02-27-2013, 07:54 PM
A 4th?? Man that would be awesome!

TheBow305
02-27-2013, 09:30 PM
Man, that would be incredible!!

Buddy
02-27-2013, 09:51 PM
I am totally down with a 4th, especially in this draft. This could equal someone fairly good.

ticophin
02-27-2013, 11:06 PM
If we lose Jake, Smith, and Hartline, we could be up for a few in 2014, one should be a 3rd at the very least!!

XxfeensterxX
02-28-2013, 02:27 AM
I'm thinking 5th, but a 4th would be awesome.

O yeah, nobody likes a snitch!

SMadison29
02-28-2013, 10:03 AM
The site listed below projects that the Dolphins will get a 4th for Langford and apparently they were very accurate the year before in their projections, so let's hope they are accurate for us this year as well.

http://bloggingthebeast.com/2013/01/27/2013-nfl-compensatory-pick-projections/

It seems like he made an error in his projection of the Langford pick. According to the rule on the basis of what round the pick falls under "The round of the pick awarded is primarily determined by the annual value of the contract signed."

Third Rounders
M.Williams - 6yr $96M; $16M annual value
B.Carr - 5yr $50.1M; $10.2M
C.Finnegan - 5yr $50M; $10M

Fourth Rounders
E.Wright - 5yr $37.5M; $7.5M
B.Grubbs - 5yr $36M; $7.2M
M.Flynn - 3yr $19.5M; $6.5M
K.Langford - 6yr $24M; $4M is really 4yr $24M; $6M (corrected contract #s)
J.Morgan - 2yr $11.5M; $5.75M
C.Lofton - 5yr $27.5M; $5.5M

Fifth Rounders
J.Johnson - 4yr $19M; $4.75M
J.Jones - 1yr $4.5M; $4.5M

Sixth Rounders (Top few only)
J.Allen - 2yr $8.2M; $4.1M
A.Ross - 3yr $9.75M; $3.25M
S.Satele - 3yr $10.8M; $3.6M

Exuro
02-28-2013, 10:59 AM
Langford signed a 4 year deal, which puts him in the 4th round range.

SMadison29
02-28-2013, 12:28 PM
Langford signed a 4 year deal, which puts him in the 4th round range.

You seem to be correct. The first site I checked said it was a 6 year deal also.

2413fanphins
03-02-2013, 12:18 PM
multiple picks in three of the first four rounds will be just filthy!!!! hope this is true.

X-FACTOR
03-02-2013, 06:42 PM
I'm thinking 5th, but a 4th would be awesome.

O yeah, nobody likes a snitch!

4th would be excellent.....not angry with a 5th either.

O yeah, nobody likes a snitch! But they love when you snitch about the good things they do!

BostonPhin4
03-03-2013, 08:24 PM
multiple picks in three of the first four rounds will be just filthy!!!! hope this is true.

Yeah..... that all depends on who is making the selections. If we end up with Tedd Ginn 2, a couple Egnews, and a Daniel Thomas it doesn't really matter.

But this year i am doing my best to stay positive so woooooooooooo!!! Lets go Jeff! Any idiot should be able to hit on atleast one of these picks!

Stefins
03-18-2013, 07:53 PM
I read that they announce the Comp picks today.... Any info?

Exuro
03-18-2013, 10:32 PM
I read that they announce the Comp picks today.... Any info?


Miami got a 5th and 7th. Langford was a push due to Marshall, Henne brought in the 5th, and Allen brought in the 7th.