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View Full Version : My Perspective, Patterson vs Allen



AcidBath
01-21-2013, 08:31 AM
I still am excited for the combine to come around and see how motivated these 2 are in pushing themselves for that extra inch on the jumps vert or long or that .01 second shed off their 40 time, or those extra couple of bench reps.

I watched as many highlights as i could off of the internet and was going off what I remember from the handful of games i saw either in this year but at this point in time I would HANDS DOWN be happier with having patterson as a Dolphin next year. When I was watching the highlights you don't expect to see negative plays but I also didnt see as many "Wow" plays by Allen. I saw a few great catches/runs and saw alot of average plays that were for decent gains, so don't get me wrong I think allen would definitly help out and be an upgrade for our WR corp. and we could definitly use alot of the plays I saw him make but I viewed him more as just a solid WR but not a Superstar. Now when I watched Patterson's highlights, I did keep in mind the same thing as Allen these were just his highlight plays and I don't know if he "dissapears" in games or runs bad routes or has drop problems, but what I did see in the video's was a reciever that was determined! This was the difference between the two that would make me want him hands down over Allen was he seemed "hungry". In doing so I did not see many average catches/runs like Allen but instead saw alot more catches/runs that if they would have been in a Dolphins game I would have been jumping off the couch or yelling some jumble of words that could not be understood because I would be so excited. The last big difference that I saw that really made me like Patterson more was his vision. In similar plays and in almost every highlight I watched where either player had a few yards to work with Patterson's vision was GREAT. He was making moves 1/2 second - 1/2 yard earlier than allen was making them in similar plays.

I became even more excited when thinking about the combine and if my feelings are correct Patterson is going to improve, and show great worth ethic between now and the combine and put up numbers exceeding what people are projecting for him. I feel Allen will be right at what people think he will do which will still be good numbers just not as good as Patterson. I know some will disagree and these are just my own personal views and ideas and hopes of these 2 players. Honestly though i pictured patterson gaining 20 pounds or so of muscle and as long as it didnt affect his speed with what he was already doing to Defensive players he is going to be a 12 year {PRODUCING} reciever in this league and a great addition for our team for years to come! Adding him and whatever FA we get we will finally get to see what our QB can do with more talent which will make less drops and they will make tougher catches which will make tannehills confidence go up and his pysche go up and we will see more deep balls and more zip and better QB production game in and game out....

So if we took Patterson at #12 I would be happy. If we took BPA at 12 and used 2 picks and moved up back in the first round and got Patterson I would go nuts and buckle up for our best draft ever. If we took BPA at 12 and took Allen with 2a then I would be pretty happy with it but would once again think about what could have been and watch where patterson went so I could see how he did with that team next year and when he put up huge stats wish we would have gotten him. and finally if we take Allen with the number 12 pick I am not going to freak out or be upset but I definitly do not feel as though there will be a smile on my face.

When I say BPA my favorite site to go to is draftcountdown.com been liking the site for years, and with their mock draft they have us going with this.... Few teams have a more clearly defined need than the Dolphins do at wide receiver. However, this may be a bit early for Calís Keenan Allen and Miami might be wise to take advantage of what figures to be impressive depth at the position in round two or three. If the Dolphins do opt to wait on a pass catcher they could turn their attention toward the defense with this pick, where there figures to be a number of intriguing possibilities. Barkevious Mingo of L.S.U. is a rare athlete with a long, rangy frame as well as outstanding speed, quickness and a burst. Mingo, who could project to either defensive end or outside linebacker at the next level, http://www.finheaven.com/clear.gif is still raw but he appears to possess all of the tools to be a dynamic threat off the edge. The Phins could afford to bring Mingo along slowly as a situational pass rusher behind Jared Odrick or perhaps groom him as a replacement for Koa Misi or Kevin Burnett. Miami might also be in the market for a cornerback to team up with Sean Smith so Dee Milliner of Alabama could be in the mix if available. If Jake Long is allowed to leave as a free agent they could replace him with Central Michigan OT Eric Fisher.

In this same mock draft they have Kennan Allen going number 23 overall to the Vikings and Cordarelle Patterson going number 27 to the Houson Texans and no other recievers going in the first round of course.

Here is what the site says for the Vikings that makes me think even if they dont want to go WR they would be the team that could bait us into moving up if that is the way that we decide to go. The Vikings are clearly on the right track in their rebuilding effort but itís imperative that Minnesota juice up their anemic passing attack and provide young quarterback Christian Ponder with some weapons to throw to other than Percy Harvin and Kyle Rudolph. Calís Keenan Allen does not get the type of national media attention that he deserves but pro scouts believe he profiles as a potential go-to target at the next level. A big, smooth athlete with a well-rounded skill set and the ability to create after the catch, Allen would be a perfect fit in Minnesotaís West Coast Offense. If Allen is already off the board, which is a distinct possibility, the Vikings could turn their attention to guys such as Cordarrelle Patterson of Tennessee, DeAndre Hopkins of Clemson, Justin Hunter of Tennessee or Terrance Williams of Baylor. There is no doubt that wideout is the Vikes most glaring need but they could also stand to upgrade at linebacker and in the secondary at both cornerback and safety. It's probably be time to start thinking about some reinforcements for the defensive line too since both Jared Allen and Kevin Williams are now on the wrong side of thirty.

And lastly here is what they say for the Houston Texans on taking Patterson which makes alot of sense with Andre Johnson moving up in age and needing someone opposite side of him not to mention he seems to never make it though a full season or sometimes even half a season so would they be our suitor if we wanted to move up to the first round to grab a reciever????? Itís clear that age is beginning to catch up with Andre Johnson, who is still a very good player but not nearly the dynamic threat he was just a few years ago. At the very least Houston needs to find a vertical threat to compliment and take some of the pressure off of Johnson. Tennessee WR Cordarrelle Patterson is a junior college transfer who only played one season of big-time college ball for the Vols but he could be the most talented pass catcher in this class. A superb athlete with an outstanding blend of size and speed, Patterson is still rough around the edges but with a little patience he has the potential to be a true go-to target at the next level. http://www.finheaven.com/clear.gif This would be an ideal situation for both player and team with the Texans offering Patterson an opportunity to be brought allow slowly. Houston could also bolster the depth along their defensive line and Alabamaís Jesse Williams would be a perfect fit due to his ability to play either nose tackle or the five technique in an odd front. Another possibility would be a right tackle, where former late round pick Derek Newton struggled to replace cap casualty Eric Winston. A cornerback or a safety may be an option too.


I am a long time viewer/reader of finheaven and love to come here year round. I normally just enjoy reading and never usually find the need to post but after the past couple of years I am seeing some of the gears being put in motion to have a good team and I am actually getting those wonderfull feelings again stirring around in my stomache....those feelings of excitment!!! nervousness!!! Happiness!!! Anger!!! instead of the ho-hum feeling i have been having even though being a faithfull fan and following every second of every game, every year! I havnt had these feelings in so long it was back when I was watching Ricky Williams rip teams appart and me laughing watching defensive players being afraid to tackle him and then our defense dominating and watching zach thomas roaming sideline to sideline making the occasional pick 6 as he does a flip into the endzone....ahhhh those were great times, i have been a fan much longer than this, these were just the last memories of the last teams that I truely would go nuts about...but i am starting to feel that these feelings might be coming around again!!!!! and i am hoping that the rest of you can understand and are starting to get those stirrings in your stomache as well!!!! because they are great feelings they are one of the reasons we are fans, why we watch the game!!! why for those 3 hours we are at the game or glued to the tv from our couch or favorite seat in a bar or resteraunt...going through all the ups and downs that the game gives us the overwhelming warmth and happiness that overcomes you with a great play!!! or the blood leaving your face as you give a blank look at the tv when the other team has an amazing play and you think the game is over and the dolphins have lost......I truely feel that this year coming up if we get the right players and keep the right ones that we will have a team that will take you through the emotional roller coaster that we have been missing the past couple of years and make you a rabid dolphins fan again as we triumphantly march into the 2013/2014 playoffs!!!!!

ckparrothead
01-21-2013, 11:53 AM
Once upon a time I thought Keenan Allen had this because of his better physicality than Cordarrelle Patterson. But as I saw more games and saw a lot more of what was going on more away from the ball, the physicality edge is still there but not as dramatic a difference as I once thought. Patterson is a big dude and doesn't mind getting physical with people. What's more, he's got a competitive spirit to him that you can sense on the tape, and to me that means that as he's taught better and put under a staff that demands more out of him, he'll be even more physical at the next level.

Now on the other hand I'm not sure the gears are in motion like you say for Miami to be a great team. We'll just have to see on that. I like Ryan Tannehill. I don't think he's going to jump up and suddenly be a Russell Wilson. I've always compared him to Joe Flacco. But as you can see, Flacco in his 5th year is now a Super Bowl-bound quarterback, so I don't mean offense when I say he's like a Flacco. I just think there's another level beyond Flacco (which Russell Wilson might ALREADY be at, honestly) and I'm not sure Tannehill will get to it.

But anyway the reason I'm not sure the gears are in motion as you say is the following.

The Dolphins have $46 million in expected cap room. They are expected to release Richard Marshall which will put them between $49-50 million, but they'll need $6-7 million for draft picks which puts them back down at $43 million. So they have $43 million in room and 5 picks in the first two days of the Draft to cover the following liabilities:

*WR Brandon Marshall (starter)
LT Jake Long (starter)
DT Randy Starks (starter)
CB Sean Smith (starter)
*CB Vontae Davis (starter)
RB Reggie Bush (starter)
WR Brian Hartline (starter)
TE Anthony Fasano (starter)
FS Chris Clemons (starter)
*DE Jason Taylor (situational pass rush)
DT Tony McDaniel (rotational)

*Note: Yes I'm aware that Brandon Marshall, Vontae Davis and Jason Taylor were lost a year ago but they remain liabilities because the front office never replaced them, and in fact in the cases of Marshall and Davis the compensation they arranged for their losses was for the most part shoved into this offseason (which is why we have 5 picks on days one and two and not just 3 like everyone else).

So they have $43 million in cap space and 5 draft picks to try and cover all of these liabilities. And that's if they don't voluntarily rip open more holes as they did a year ago. For example, I've had the feeling for a while they might not like Karlos Dansby after he publicly ripped the staff twice, once for cutting OchoCinco and a second time after the first NE game where Coyle was being questioned by the media for having Cam Wake and Jared Odrick off the field for a few snaps of the final back-breaking drive.

xXwarXx
01-21-2013, 12:01 PM
I'm trying get on board with Patterson, but boy the way he catches the ball, or doesnt catch the ball, it makes me cringe. It's just flat out ugly. His lack of receptions this year also isn't something that I care for. He kind of reminds of me. Ted ginn type in that he may have A big game, but follow it up with 3-4 average or below games in the NFL.

Once I look away from the highlights, I look at Patterson, and wonder where the consistency is that makes him a real good football player? Most of football isn't a highlight play, how many times can we really run a reverse to this guy?

I really can't see philbin signing off on the guy either. I get the idea philbin likes far more polish on his WRs.

AcidBath
01-21-2013, 12:18 PM
As stated of my presence on this site for a very long time I always enjoy and appreciate your post CK so thank you for taking the time to read my post and respond...you nailed it EXACTLY what i was seeing on tape in patterson when you said you can just see his competitive spirit which is rare and definitly a thing common in star athletes! Since he is still young and his body still has room to grow do you think the normal 5-10 pounds of muscle would suffice with his abilities and what he could do at the next level or would you want like me for him to get about 20-25 pounds as long as it wouldnt affect his game speed or not negatively to where it would hurt his game...I was thinking with his noticeable "competitive spirit" and the little bit of extra muscle and weight he would be YAC king!!!! and make a few plays each game that would make the fans go nuts and look at each other and ask, "Did you see what he just did to that guy/those guys?????" I am not sure which games/tape you were referring to about Allen but I just saw a solid player that will put up decent stats but never really WOW you or become a superstar...more like a stevie johnson maybe???? the ability to get 70-80 catches everyear...right at 1000 yards and single digit TD's but never anything more than that where as patterson's numbers I dont even want to guess but they would be pleasing to the eye. So which of the 4 draft scenarios would you prefer that i put up ck?????

Lastly, what I was trying to say about our team I do not think tannehill will be a top 5 QB next year and i do not think the gears are in motion to make us a superbowl or AFC champ.....however I feel we are going to be a playoff team and we will start making a little more noise and get more attention to us....positive attention....and i just feel after you watch our 16 games this upcoming season + hopefully playoffs, you are going to have some great memories and will have a great rollercoaster of emotions that you have not felt in YEARS!!!! with this team. I know recently wish Bush and Wake there has been more excitment then the a couple years before those but I was trying to say...i know you remember 2002 & 2003....wow i cant believe it has been 10 years now that i look at it....but that was rickys 1800 yard 16 TD year when we went 9-7 and lost our last 2 games missing the playoffs....the emotions that year were AMAZING and very strong, like i said in the original statement...watching ricky run and just kill defenders to the point they would literally be afraid it seemed!!!! and the horrible feeling of losing to the pats in week 17.....and the following year was amazing as well!!!!! thats what i was trying to say to you that its going to be nice to be able to have those feelings again and i can feel them coming.

BlueFin
01-21-2013, 12:25 PM
I can't compare the situation Ryan Tannehill was in to Russell Wilson.

Wilson had much more college experience than Tannehill, I'd certainly take the talent that was around Wilson over what Tannehill had to work with....Sydney Rice and Golden Tate being far superior to the Dolphins receiving corp.

I see far more potential in Ryan Tannehill than I do Russell Wilson, and would not swap them.

With improved weapons, Tannehill will only get better and better.

On a side note, fun watching Colin Kaepernick advance to the Superbowl when so many "experts" doubted his ability and tried to label him a long term project. I wanted Miami to draft him, and certainly would have moved up for him versus Daniel Thomas.

ckparrothead
01-21-2013, 03:51 PM
I would swap Russell Wilson for Ryan Tannehill in a heartbeat. And that's nothing against Ryan Tannehill.

---------- Post added at 02:51 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:49 PM ----------


I'm trying get on board with Patterson, but boy the way he catches the ball, or doesnt catch the ball, it makes me cringe. It's just flat out ugly. His lack of receptions this year also isn't something that I care for. He kind of reminds of me. Ted ginn type in that he may have A big game, but follow it up with 3-4 average or below games in the NFL.

Once I look away from the highlights, I look at Patterson, and wonder where the consistency is that makes him a real good football player? Most of football isn't a highlight play, how many times can we really run a reverse to this guy?

I really can't see philbin signing off on the guy either. I get the idea philbin likes far more polish on his WRs.

You really need to account for the fact that he was in his first year out of JUCO playing in the SEC against SEC defenses with a QB that already had chemistry with Justin Hunter who got the heavy bulk of targets.

Derek Dooley said he's never seen a guy have that big an impact in that short an amount of time.

I wouldn't exactly have called Randall Cobb a "polished" player when he came out. He was a converted quarterback who still was used all over the place in different ways with the aim of just getting the ball in his hands in space and seeing what he could do with it.

ckparrothead
01-21-2013, 04:07 PM
As stated of my presence on this site for a very long time I always enjoy and appreciate your post CK so thank you for taking the time to read my post and respond...you nailed it EXACTLY what i was seeing on tape in patterson when you said you can just see his competitive spirit which is rare and definitly a thing common in star athletes! Since he is still young and his body still has room to grow do you think the normal 5-10 pounds of muscle would suffice with his abilities and what he could do at the next level or would you want like me for him to get about 20-25 pounds as long as it wouldnt affect his game speed or not negatively to where it would hurt his game...I was thinking with his noticeable "competitive spirit" and the little bit of extra muscle and weight he would be YAC king!!!! and make a few plays each game that would make the fans go nuts and look at each other and ask, "Did you see what he just did to that guy/those guys?????" I am not sure which games/tape you were referring to about Allen but I just saw a solid player that will put up decent stats but never really WOW you or become a superstar...more like a stevie johnson maybe???? the ability to get 70-80 catches everyear...right at 1000 yards and single digit TD's but never anything more than that where as patterson's numbers I dont even want to guess but they would be pleasing to the eye. So which of the 4 draft scenarios would you prefer that i put up ck?????

Lastly, what I was trying to say about our team I do not think tannehill will be a top 5 QB next year and i do not think the gears are in motion to make us a superbowl or AFC champ.....however I feel we are going to be a playoff team and we will start making a little more noise and get more attention to us....positive attention....and i just feel after you watch our 16 games this upcoming season + hopefully playoffs, you are going to have some great memories and will have a great rollercoaster of emotions that you have not felt in YEARS!!!! with this team. I know recently wish Bush and Wake there has been more excitment then the a couple years before those but I was trying to say...i know you remember 2002 & 2003....wow i cant believe it has been 10 years now that i look at it....but that was rickys 1800 yard 16 TD year when we went 9-7 and lost our last 2 games missing the playoffs....the emotions that year were AMAZING and very strong, like i said in the original statement...watching ricky run and just kill defenders to the point they would literally be afraid it seemed!!!! and the horrible feeling of losing to the pats in week 17.....and the following year was amazing as well!!!!! thats what i was trying to say to you that its going to be nice to be able to have those feelings again and i can feel them coming.

1. I think Cordarrelle will probably keep close to the same mass he has now. Obviously every college player could use further strength and development, he probably more than most as he spent time at JUCO where I'm sure the program wasn't as sophisticated as it could've been.

2. You have your finger on the pulse of the worry related to Keenan Allen. Is he just a "decent" receiver at the next level? He needs more balance after the catch, and he needs more consistency in catching the football. The key will be the character investigation. A guy with his skill set and super high character could be a stalwart in the NFL for years. But a guy like him with poor character could easily be "just a guy".

3. I'm just concerned that this front office will continue to take on water faster than they can bail it. Like I said you've got 9 starting positions and at least 1 or 2 significant role playing positions that are liabilities. To fill all those holes you've got $43 million and 5 picks in the first three rounds. I don't think you can count on 3rd round picks to fill those holes (see: Egnew) so you're looking at even a wildly successful draft only nailing down maybe 2 starters and 1 role player, leaving 8 big openings to cover with $43 million. You had better re-sign the right players, and you had better do a HELL of better job signing free agents than you did a year ago...and that's not even accounting for improvement. That's just so you can stay the same.

adrianbello360
01-21-2013, 04:18 PM
How nice would it be to draft a top flight DE with the 1st, trade our 2b, 4, and 7b to trade back into late first for C. Patterson, than get Hunter/Woods/Hopkins/Bailey/Austin with 2a !! Than use 3a - 3b for CB and either S or Top OL on board. Than BPA at position on need for 5 and 7a.

Sign Jennings in FA, than have C. Patterson with another solid WR from 2a. Paired with Bess and Hartline!
PLUS our top DE we drafted with our 12 pick!!
If only ...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

NUGap
01-21-2013, 04:28 PM
My concern with Allen is the lack of depth in his routes and then yards after the catch. I understand that's partially tied to his offense. Around 63% of Allen's catches came from screens or within 1-5 yards of the line of scrimmage. Here's a chart showing Patterson vs. Allen's average depth of catch and then yards after the catch:

http://www.finheaven.com/images/imported/2013/01/TpU1btF-1.png

Conversely, Patterson drops around 8% of his passes, compared to 4% for Allen.

I commented about this in a different thread but, I calculated what an "Average QB" throws to their number one wide receiver based on the WRs in this draft. I've found that if Patterson had a Average QB, he would have had 434 more yards due to an increase in targets and a decrease in misses. Allen would have lost 16 yards ​(pretty much a wash), essentially saying that Zach Maynard was about average in terms of % misses and targets at Allen. To CK's point, Patterson was targeted on just 20% of Bray's passes, while the average for starting WRs that I've done is around 29%.

I'll have more on all WRs later (I need to get everything consolidated for a post/ sticking it up somewhere on the internet), but make your own judgments on that. Allen, by far has the lowest catch yards from the LOS.

Digital
01-21-2013, 05:42 PM
I'm a big fan of Cordarrelle Patterson and his teammate Justin Hunter. But, for Patterson, the sum of his question marks come before the ball hits his hands. I'm convinced he has the physical body for the NFL. He is solid enough to not have recurring injury problems. He is physical enough to survive the bump and run. He is determined enough to push for the extra yard. He is willing enough to block downfield. While he hasn't learned to properly use his physicality or elevation to their full extent yet, I see progress and expect he will be good in both areas.

Patterson needs to learn the route tree, run accurate routes (exactly where and when to cut), run precise routes (consistently the same distance, degree of cut, and timing), and master his hot-reads. It takes a while to hone the craft/art part of the position, and he has a long way to go. That means he will be limited initially and the pace at which he progresses will constantly be the staff's main concern. If he goes to the right spot at the right time to where the QB can know what he will do and where he'll be without having to physically look at him and confirm before throwing, then IMHO, Patterson will be great. I think he has good hands and good catching technique. It could use some polish certainly, but the ability and effort are there. He isn't one of these guys who always starts to run before he catches it, or prefers to body catch everything. He is a hands snatcher mostly and he can adjust to the ball in flight.

His after the catch abilities are amazing ... no extra work needed there.

Patterson has enough speed to get deep and shows an incredible burst to create separation vertically, which scares the heck out of DB's.

I don't see that level of deep burst from Keenan Allen. I see a good possession receiver, and a player I'd love to have on the team ... but not sure if he has the ability to merit #12 overall IMHO. He has some speed, but again, I don't see the burst, and continually throwing deep to a covered receiver is not going to work out well. What works is either A) absolute deep speed like Wallace, Ginn, Gates, or B) burst like Patterson, Garcon, Julio Jones. So, when people tell me Allen is a deep threat, I don't see him as someone who will scare the safety out of the box.

Allen has slight injury and character concerns as well. While not a big worry for me, they are worth mentioning. What bothers me, is that he is physical but not physically dominant. He is quick but not super-quick. He has some speed but he isn't a true burner. I like him ... but as a prospect just don't love him. If he were available in the late 2nd or 3rd I'd love the guy, but not at #12. If we draft him at #12, I'm fine with it, because he is a plug-and-play player at a major position of need who I think will provide good play for many years. But he doesn't make me think we're possibly building an offensive juggernaut to rival the Packers and Patriots like I might feel if we took a chance on Cordarrelle Patterson.

I put Allen in the same region as Robert Woods, a very good player to help out the offense who I would love to get in round 2. But if he isn't there in the 2nd round ... there are other options.

AcidBath
01-21-2013, 06:40 PM
My concern with Allen is the lack of depth in his routes and then yards after the catch. I understand that's partially tied to his offense. Around 63% of Allen's catches came from screens or within 1-5 yards of the line of scrimmage. Here's a chart showing Patterson vs. Allen's average depth of catch and then yards after the catch:

http://www.finheaven.com/images/imported/2013/01/TpU1btF-1.png

Conversely, Patterson drops around 8% of his passes, compared to 4% for Allen.

I commented about this in a different thread but, I calculated what an "Average QB" throws to their number one wide receiver based on the WRs in this draft. I've found that if Patterson had a Average QB, he would have had 434 more yards due to an increase in targets and a decrease in misses. Allen would have lost 16 yards ​(pretty much a wash), essentially saying that Zach Maynard was about average in terms of % misses and targets at Allen. To CK's point, Patterson was targeted on just 20% of Bray's passes, while the average for starting WRs that I've done is around 29%.

I'll have more on all WRs later (I need to get everything consolidated for a post/ sticking it up somewhere on the internet), but make your own judgments on that. Allen, by far has the lowest catch yards from the LOS.

Wow thank you for the stats and graph it really showed me even more reasons why i stick by my feelings.

xXwarXx
01-21-2013, 06:50 PM
I would swap Russell Wilson for Ryan Tannehill in a heartbeat. And that's nothing against Ryan Tannehill.

---------- Post added at 02:51 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:49 PM ----------



You really need to account for the fact that he was in his first year out of JUCO playing in the SEC against SEC defenses with a QB that already had chemistry with Justin Hunter who got the heavy bulk of targets.

Derek Dooley said he's never seen a guy have that big an impact in that short an amount of time.

I wouldn't exactly have called Randall Cobb a "polished" player when he came out. He was a converted quarterback who still was used all over the place in different ways with the aim of just getting the ball in his hands in space and seeing what he could do with it.

Why do I have to account for that? You make it sound like hunter put up god tier stats on the other side. There was more than enough room and time for Patterson to pt up better stats as an actual wr. Where's the routes, where's the catches, where's the reads, I don't see any of that.

At 12, that's a crazy risk IMO. Once you get past the few amazing highlights, you wonder what hes doing the rest of the time on the field. You look at his game by game production, and yes I get that he didn't have the time to assimilate to tenn the way he should have, came from juco, etc.

But he's this superior player ppl are building him up tk be, he wouldn't of went on a 5 game run where he did almost nothing. at 12 this seems like a crazy pick IMO, the more I look at it.

I don't agree with the Cobb comparison, packers had the luxury to draft a project wr, we def do not. Not in the 1st rnd at least.

ckparrothead
01-21-2013, 07:22 PM
It's simple. He didn't go on a 5 game run where he did "almost nothing".

I assume you're talking about the 5 game stretch from the Akron game to the South Carolina game. But in that 5 game stretch he produced 3 touchdowns along with 553 yards on 33 touches.

God damn. I'd love that kind of "almost nothing" production on the Dolphins.

You say you're accounting for his being fresh off a JUCO transfer, but in practice you're not really showing me that you are, IMO.

xXwarXx
01-21-2013, 08:07 PM
I'm talking about what he did was a wideout, that is what we would be drafting him to do here. Catching the ball, stuff like that, you know, wr stuff.

I know he is special once the ball is in his hands, but the kid looks completely raw and flat out ugly in many areas of wr, getting that ball there may not be so easy. On top of that, you keep mentioning this juco transfer, well now he's going ti have ti make the jump into the NFL.

And he's going to have to learn technique AND and system, that many vets seem to have trouble with.

Thats a tall order.

NUGap
01-21-2013, 08:16 PM
I'm talking about what hen did was a wideout, that is what we would be drafting him to do here. Catching the ball, stuff like that, you know, wr stuff.

To be fair, I think if you're drafting Patterson, you're drafting his as a weapon. To draft him and then use him solely as a receiver, then you're under utilizing his talents. In that 5 game stretch, he only had 127 yards receiving. However, he averaged 34 yards/ kick off return. I think it's fair to lump that into his production, given that it is one of the talents you receive when you draft Patterson. Over those 5 games he averaged 34 yards/ return, which I think most people would kill for. I think you have to look at the whole package, which is where some people are getting caught up.

EDIT: Posted this before the edit in the original post

ckparrothead
01-21-2013, 08:34 PM
I'm talking about what he did was a wideout, that is what we would be drafting him to do here. Catching the ball, stuff like that, you know, wr stuff.

I know he is special once the ball is in his hands, but the kid looks completely raw and flat out ugly in many areas of wr, getting that ball there may not be so easy. On top of that, you keep mentioning this juco transfer, well now he's going ti have ti make the jump into the NFL.

And he's going to have to learn technique AND and system, that many vets seem to have trouble with.

Thats a tall order.

But that's sort of the point you're ignoring. He was a first year JUCO transfer jumping straight into the SEC, trying to assimilate into an offense that already had an established QB-WR connection. We've seen that before. Stevie Johnson transferred from JUCO to Kentucky where Andre Woodson already had an established connection with Keenan Burton. Stevie Johnson only had 12 catches for 159 yards and 1 TD in that first year off his JUCO transfer. The next year he led the team with 60 catches for 1041 yards and 13 TDs. He's become a pretty good pro, wouldn't you say?

His transition from JUCO to Tennessee DOES give a clue as to how he'll transition from being a college player to playing in the NFL. But you keep taking an intentional blind eye to the runs and returns (and even passes) from the guy. Why? The point is Tennessee knew he would have a difficult time transitioning so far, so quickly, so they found ways to get him the ball any way they could, and it PAID OFF for them. He was as productive offensively as Justin Hunter. The same thing will happen in the NFL. The NFL will know that he's not going to be Torry Holt overnight. But you know what, the Ravens knew that with Torrey Smith too, and he was very productive as a rookie. They found what he was good at and emphasized it. Similarly, the Falcons got the ball into Julio Jones' hands anyway they could. They knew he was a raw athlete. They just tried their hardest to cover for what he couldn't do and emphasize what he could do.

xXwarXx
01-21-2013, 08:54 PM
But that's sort of the point you're ignoring. He was a first year JUCO transfer jumping straight into the SEC, trying to assimilate into an offense that already had an established QB-WR connection. We've seen that before. Stevie Johnson transferred from JUCO to Kentucky where Andre Woodson already had an established connection with Keenan Burton. Stevie Johnson only had 12 catches for 159 yards and 1 TD in that first year off his JUCO transfer. The next year he led the team with 60 catches for 1041 yards and 13 TDs. He's become a pretty good pro, wouldn't you say?

His transition from JUCO to Tennessee DOES give a clue as to how he'll transition from being a college player to playing in the NFL. But you keep taking an intentional blind eye to the runs and returns (and even passes) from the guy. Why? The point is Tennessee knew he would have a difficult time transitioning so far, so quickly, so they found ways to get him the ball any way they could, and it PAID OFF for them. He was as productive offensively as Justin Hunter. The same thing will happen in the NFL. The NFL will know that he's not going to be Torry Holt overnight. But you know what, the Ravens knew that with Torrey Smith too, and he was very productive as a rookie. They found what he was good at and emphasized it. Similarly, the Falcons got the ball into Julio Jones' hands anyway they could. They knew he was a raw athlete. They just tried their hardest to cover for what he couldn't do and emphasize what he could do.

Didn't know about the stevie Johnson juco thing, and I dont Know how many players have had similar stories but I'm guessing most juco guys don't become Stevie Johnson. But again, I don't know much About this.

A lot of what you use as excuses as to why he wasn't assimilated into the offense as a wr is what scares me the most. Why wasn't he pushed into the offense more? Even as time went by? You probably know more about this than I do, but as a wr, what does he actually do good? I don't see much there.

I'm not ignoring the other ways he's produced, but we all need to be realistic, were not drafting him to run trick plays and return kicks, were drafting him to play wr.

And I completely disagree that his transfer from juco to tenn gives any clue of how he will transfer to the NFL. There is really no comparison between the two.

xXwarXx
01-21-2013, 09:01 PM
Also just want to add, I think you may be underestimating the complications of this system as far as WR's go. There's a reason you don't see the patriots drafting a lot of athlete WRs, that are raw.

They won't make it. They don't even have a chance in that system,. That's why no matter how much NE tries to replace branch and welker they are still there.

Were obviously not NE, but that is where philbin is trying to bring it to. When you hear vets talking about how tough the system is, just imagine what a juco kid is going to see. He won't see anything cuz he won't get on the field, same way egnew couldn't. How many times did we see guys like Charles clay line up in the wrong place?

I dunno, Maybe you just have far more faith in raw players than I do.

finfan54
01-21-2013, 10:49 PM
I just see Patterson as a good kid who has great moves in the open field. No way does he remind me of Ginn. He is tougher than Ginn. I just dont buy the hype as a #1 guy. What I see is end around dangerous with occasional over the middle pass. I think he would do well with other guys getting doubled but so would others IMO.

His stick foot in the open field is very good and seems to go forward instead of one Brandon Marshall who completely stops.

Digital
01-21-2013, 11:40 PM
What I notice first about Patterson is that he has made a lot of progress from arriving at UT to breaking into the first team, to finishing the season as one of their top weapons.

Justin Hunter, who I also like, has had great teaching every step of the way, and in high school played for a good system and was a very highly regarded prospect. His time at UT was as the #1 WR from day 1 and he learned a lot of great things, like decent route running, how to high point a reception, and how to be a good downfield blocker. He also has been taught for years how to properly snatch the football as a hands catcher. My issues with Hunter are that he lacks sufficient arm/hand strength and has trouble holding onto the ball in traffic. He also simply drops some very makable throws from concentration lapses. These things can be learned, but my worry is that he has been taught the right way for many years ... and its still an issue. I am a huge fan of Justin Hunter, but the guy needs to add some strength and concentrate on catching before running. Secondly, he needs to get and stay healthy. He needs to add muscle to help with all of this ... but the kid is a long lean jumping machine mismatch in the red zone and a fast deep threat with a great wingspan.

Patterson hasn't had the same level of teaching ...but he has started learning at a nice pace, which is very encouraging. He knows he needs to work, which is crucial. He seems like a guy who will be receptive to the teaching he needs. Patterson may be raw, but he sure appears to be doing the right things to get where he needs to get. And I like that.

We aren't at the same stage as the Patriots. They are at the very top with a great established QB and a humming machine that always features WR's, offers a goood chance for a ring, and need to win NOW because their great QB is long in the tooth. The Dolphins are a rebuilding team putting the foundation in place and our young QB is still learning the ropes. We can't attract top WR's for cut-rate prices to give them a chance to star in the Brady and Belichik show and maybe pick up the grand prize, a ring. We need to pay top dollar to entice those WR's NOT to go there but come to a nice city and fight in an uncertain and youthful system. The Patriots don't develop WR's because they don't have to do so. What we want is a pace-setter and some young WR's to grow with Tannehill. Ideally the pace-setter would teach the young WR's how to become great and what is necessary.

ckparrothead
01-22-2013, 12:11 AM
Going back to the JUCO thing and realistic expectations for how JUCO players should produce in the first year coming out of JUCO, here are some more players for you. Not all of them are successful pros. They don't have to be. The point with Cordarrelle Patterson is not that he's going to be a successful pro because he's a JUCO transfer. The point with Cordarrelle Patterson is that he produced 778 receiving yards and 5 receiving touchdowns, which in SOME years would come shockingly close to leading the entire SEC in pure receiver catching production, and this should be considered pretty good for it being his first year off a JUCO transfer.

But here are some stats on production of JUCO players from their 1st year on their new team, to the 2nd year:

Isaac Bruce: 43-562-5, 74-1054-10
Chad Johnson: 33-713-6, (no 2nd year off JUCO)
Keyshawn Johnson: 58-1140-6, 90-1218-6
Steve L. Smith: 35-743-4, (no 2nd year off JUCO)
T.J. Houshmandzadeh: 24-378-2, 42-656-6
Stevie Johnson: 12-159-1, 60-1041-13
Kevin Curtis: 100-1531-10, 74-1258-9
Deion Branch: 71-1016-9, 72-1188-9
Devin Thomas: 6-90-1, 79-1260-8
Robert Ferguson: 58-885-6, (no 2nd year off JUCO)
Quincy Morgan: 41-1007-9, 64-1166-14
Javon Walker: 20-313-3, 45-944-7

The list above are all guys I could find that actually either did something in the NFL, or ended up taken in the 2nd round of the NFL Draft or better.

They averaged 42 catches, 711 yards and 5 touchdowns receiving the football as first year JUCO transfers. Coincidentally (or not), Cordarrelle Patterson had 46 catches for 778 yards and 5 touchdowns as a first year JUCO transfer.

xXwarXx
01-22-2013, 12:36 AM
Had no idea all those guys came out of juco, thx for that info, it def gives me better insight and hope for Patterson. Your def making a good sales pitch.

If you were to take Patterson, who else would you ideally bring in on offense or through the draft? I guess one of my biggest worries, is I want to see tannehill have legit targets now. I could accept Patterson a lot easier if we added more polished WRs. Than I would feel a lot more comfortable w that pick.

I would still take Allen though if it was my choice. Your arguements make a lot of sense, but sometimes I watch guys like jacoby jones for instance, after all these years, still catches everything w his body. Raw WRs scare me more than a raw rush linebacker for instance. I feel like there's just a ton of technique and reads that these guys need to learn, and without seeing much of it, it's hard to grasp that Patterson will actually make that leap.

ckparrothead
01-22-2013, 11:01 AM
It's understandable. In no way am I trying to say Cordarrelle Patterson is a slam dunk and I'm not even saying he'd be my 1st choice at #12 overall. I just think he's on the list, and I think he's the only WR on the list at that pick.

I don't know if Cordarrelle Patterson's catching technique is as raw as you perceive. I've watched most of his games and seen just about every ball thrown his way. The one situation I really have a question about is his over the shoulder catching on vertical passes. Not every receiver has that going for him. Otherwise he has shown plenty of times the ability to snatch the ball with his hands away from his body, but he also shows the ability to determine when it's best to shield the catch with his body in situations where the defensive back is on him.

Where he's really raw is in his ability to see what's happening on the field, read leverage and make decisions quickly at full speed. That's going to come with time. But hell, Chad Johnson had an entire near-HOF career while masking an inability to do that consistently.

As for how I see him fitting in Miami's offense, I think first off in free agency you've got to make a Brian Hartline/Greg Jennings determination. The reason I group those two together is because I think people might be surprised how little a premium Miami might have to pay for a Greg Jennings over what Brian Hartline is asking. I don't believe the Dolphins should pay Hartline more than $4 million a year, but Hartline is probably going to be asking closer to $6 million a year. And so what happens if you could get Greg Jennings for between $7 and $8 million a year, a mere $1-2 million premium to Hartline's asking price? To me that's an easy upgrade decision. But if negotiations with both fall through, I would take a hard look at Johnny Knox's health.

But you're not done after that because whoever you get, be it Jennings, Knox or Hartline, isn't going to combine with Davone Bess to be good enough at that position. That's where a Cordarrelle Patterson would come in. But even then you'd not be done. There's too much talent in this Draft to just be "done" at that position. The Dolphins really only currently have two guys worth rostering, when you consider that Brian Hartline is a free agent. They have Davone Bess and Rishard Matthews. Armon Binns is a guy you bring to camp and see if he can win a job, no more than that. That's actually what Rishard Matthews still is, truth be told. So between the Hartline/Jennings/Knox acquisition, and the Patterson acquisition, you're still looking at one more acquisition. That's where you look at a Marquise Goodwin, Marquess Wilson or Chris Harper, IMO.

ANUFan
01-22-2013, 11:31 AM
It's understandable. In no way am I trying to say Cordarrelle Patterson is a slam dunk and I'm not even saying he'd be my 1st choice at #12 overall. I just think he's on the list, and I think he's the only WR on the list at that pick.

I don't know if Cordarrelle Patterson's catching technique is as raw as you perceive. I've watched most of his games and seen just about every ball thrown his way. The one situation I really have a question about is his over the shoulder catching on vertical passes. Not every receiver has that going for him. Otherwise he has shown plenty of times the ability to snatch the ball with his hands away from his body, but he also shows the ability to determine when it's best to shield the catch with his body in situations where the defensive back is on him.

Where he's really raw is in his ability to see what's happening on the field, read leverage and make decisions quickly at full speed. That's going to come with time. But hell, Chad Johnson had an entire near-HOF career while masking an inability to do that consistently.

As for how I see him fitting in Miami's offense, I think first off in free agency you've got to make a Brian Hartline/Greg Jennings determination. The reason I group those two together is because I think people might be surprised how little a premium Miami might have to pay for a Greg Jennings over what Brian Hartline is asking. I don't believe the Dolphins should pay Hartline more than $4 million a year, but Hartline is probably going to be asking closer to $6 million a year. And so what happens if you could get Greg Jennings for between $7 and $8 million a year, a mere $1-2 million premium to Hartline's asking price? To me that's an easy upgrade decision. But if negotiations with both fall through, I would take a hard look at Johnny Knox's health.

But you're not done after that because whoever you get, be it Jennings, Knox or Hartline, isn't going to combine with Davone Bess to be good enough at that position. That's where a Cordarrelle Patterson would come in. But even then you'd not be done. There's too much talent in this Draft to just be "done" at that position. The Dolphins really only currently have two guys worth rostering, when you consider that Brian Hartline is a free agent. They have Davone Bess and Rishard Matthews. Armon Binns is a guy you bring to camp and see if he can win a job, no more than that. That's actually what Rishard Matthews still is, truth be told. So between the Hartline/Jennings/Knox acquisition, and the Patterson acquisition, you're still looking at one more acquisition. That's where you look at a Marquise Goodwin, Marquess Wilson or Chris Harper, IMO.

Curious, Why no mention of Mike Wallace?

ckparrothead
01-22-2013, 01:11 PM
Curious, Why no mention of Mike Wallace?

I'm not that big a fan of his anymore. He's a little one-dimensional and I wonder if he hasn't been made a little bit by Ben Roethlisberger.

I do not at all consider Wallace to be a bad character. I just wonder if he has skills that would translate his Pittsburgh production onto a new team. Especially this team.

glh205
01-22-2013, 01:59 PM
May be overkill, but I think we need Jennings AND Hartline. Couple those with Patterson as a deep threat and Bess in the slot and all of a sudden we have a WR corps that challenges defenses.

In my mind Patterson > Wallace, but it is one or the other on those guys. If we got someone like Wallace in FA, then I could unsterstand someone like Allen (but not at 12).

xXwarXx
01-22-2013, 02:10 PM
Im in agreement that we need to chose either jennings or hartline for same reasons ck said.

Another reason for that is we won't put ourselves in a financial hole with a player like Wallace, it makes no sense to do that with a draft stacked in a WRs. IMO in any draft stacked at any position, you do everything possible to embrace it. No sense paying Wallace 12 mill when we can pay 3 WRs the same amt of money.

I wanted Wallace badly, but looking at the cap space and what is smarter long term, we can use that money to fill other areas, maybe less exciting areas. And go all out on playmakers in the draft.

Would be nice to develop our own stars and playmakers.

I actually looked at some pictures of Patterson and Julio, and they are identical in there build. Talents are a bit different but they are very similar in one aspect and that's body control. With the ball Patterson has incredible body control, Julio IMO has superior body control going after the ball.

Ck has Patterson growing on me again.

ANUFan
01-22-2013, 02:34 PM
I'm not that big a fan of his anymore. He's a little one-dimensional and I wonder if he hasn't been made a little bit by Ben Roethlisberger.

I do not at all consider Wallace to be a bad character. I just wonder if he has skills that would translate his Pittsburgh production onto a new team. Especially this team.


Can you see him going to New England?

Etuoo33
01-22-2013, 02:42 PM
The prospect of making him our first round choice makes it more important that we add a guy like Jennings to help Patterson learn how to read and react to defensive situations. I like him but wonder if 12 is too high vs losing him to another needy team!

ckparrothead
01-22-2013, 04:03 PM
Can you see him going to New England?

Not their type either, IMO.

I could see Greg Jennings going there, though.

fanfin
01-23-2013, 12:54 PM
I have Allen rated as a top 10 receiver. I like him more than Justin Blackmon last year who went #7 overall. Allen is a great route runner and looks like a perfect fit in our offense considering he played in a WCO. Allen is more polished and is the safer pick. I would say that Patterson is a top 25 player but I would prefer Louisiana Tech Quinton Patton over Patterson. for those of you who do not know him do yourself a favor and look him up now. I like Allen, Patton, then Patterson. That being said, I would be happy with any of the 3 at #12.

ckparrothead
01-23-2013, 03:31 PM
FWIW I have 79 attempts in Patterson's direction on which he caught for 795 yards, about 10.1 yards per attempt. For Justin Hunter I have 128 attempts and 1087 yards, about 8.5 yards per attempt. I haven't done that with any of the other wideouts yet.

Digital
01-24-2013, 12:55 AM
Too bad this discussion keeps popping up in this thread instead of the one I started with almost the same title one day earlier. :(

MrEd
02-08-2013, 01:48 AM
I'm not so enamored by Keenan Allen. In fact I'd be more ecstatic with Hopkins and Wheaton than Keenan Allen. But I'd go berserk if we got Patterson at 12 then Wheaton in the 2nd round. :D