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View Full Version : Geno Smith, Glennon, Barkley and Wilson: A Metrics Breakdown and Discussion



NUGap
02-01-2013, 05:38 PM
Hey y'all, because I apparently like the draft more than the NFL season, I've done a QB breakdown even though the Dolphins don't need a QB. I figured it can be helpful to see who the Bills/ Jets could draft and to hear what people think of this year's QB class. Especially considering the news that Barkley won't throw at the combine, I'd like to see what people think.

Like last year when I did these, the stats are based off of me watching game film and writing down the factors that go into a play. I marked down where the ball was caught, what the formation was, why the ball was incomplete and many more factors. In each section, Iím going to post the relevant chart and then make comments on it.

http://www.finheaven.com/images/imported/2013/02/targets-1.gif


Both Geno Smith and Matt Barkley throw a high amount of screens at 30% and 22%. These are significantly higher than what the AvgQB throws at 17%.
All 4 quarterbacks throw a significant amount of passes within 1-5 yards of the line of scrimmage, but Barkleyís combined 52% screens and 1-5 yard passes are by far the highest among all QBs. For a comparison Tannehill only threw 38% of his passes in that short range.
The quarterbacks are pretty even among the 6-10 yard intermediate range, all hovering around the same 21% we see with the AvgQB.
Mike Glennon by far is the most likely to go deep. Heís above average in both the 11-20 range and the 20+ range. The only one of the four quarterbacks to do so.
Barkley, Smith and Wilson all hover in the combined 28% range past 20 yards, all are below average compared to last yearís QB class.


Accuracy
http://www.finheaven.com/images/imported/2013/02/compperc-1.gif
This one requires a bit of explanation. The color coding are comparisons to the AvgQB, thus green is above average, yellow is average, and red is below average. I have also taken out drops, for what I call the Perfect Receiver Rating, thus the completion percentages arenít what youíd see in the box scores.



Both Geno Smith and Mike Glennon are elite in terms of short 1-5 yard passes. Their accuracies at 83% and 82% are better than RGIIIís last year and would have put them behind only Russell Wilson in that zone.
The biggest red flag for me when looking at Barkley is the low completion percentage in the 1-5 yard zone. He threw in that area 30% of the time, but wasnít at average. This however is where the numbers from last year come in handy, Tannehill threw a similar 69% in the 1-5 yard zone. So I feel like we can attribute that to the short style west-coast game.
Geno Smith is excellent in the intermediate zones of 6-10 yards and 11-20 yards. Tyler Wilson is really not. This is what concerns me about Tyler Wilson, heís pushing average in the 1-5 yard zone but canít hit average at any other range. I donít think heíll be able to push the ball down field in the NFL. If you look at the "Results" chart at the bottom, he underthrows a significant number of his passes. That combined with his poor deeper accuracy would lead me to struggle with him.
Barkley and Glennon are really the solid deep threats we see here. Both can hit the 11-20 range solidly and Barkley is excellent at 20+ yards. As a reference, Luck was at 50% on 20+ last year and RGIII was at 62.5%.


Adjusted Completion %
The last bit of information I have is going to require a bit of explanation. My goal was to take out the variability of systems they all played in. Thus, how would Geno Smith have performed in Mike Glennonís shoes? This is imperfect, but it gives you a feel for how the systems helped or harmed them.

What Iíve done is taken out drops and then used my composite of targets in each zone from last yearís QBs to create an average system. Thus, I took their completion percentages, total passes, and the average system to find out what their overall completion percentage would have been in the average system.
http://www.finheaven.com/images/imported/2013/02/adjcomp-1.gif

The top number is the adjusted completion percentage and the bottom number is the change from their overall completion percentage (with drops already taken out)
Thus we see that Genoís system helped him the most, had he been forced to throw more deep routes and less screens his overall completion percentage would have gone down roughly 2.8%
Barkley similarly was harmed due to the high amount of screens and 1-5 yard passes he throws, the ďgimmeĒ passes
Glennon was actually helped by this. He threw many more deep passes than the others and would have benefited overall from throwing more screens and shorter passes.
Tannehill was actually +5 in this last year, the highest of any QB in these two classes. This most likely would tell us that the system he played in asked for some of the most difficult throws in college.


Here's one further chart, I'll present without comment. It's the result of the plays (this is new). Some of it is a bit subjective, but I tried to apply the same filters to all QBs.
http://www.finheaven.com/images/imported/2013/02/result-1.gif
These are pretty much that stats I had last year. I've made a site though, mostly just to hold my data and writeups, that has more data on these QBs like red zone yardage, yardage by quarter, completion percentage by formation, completion percentage by down, etc. You can see the rest of that here: http://secondroundstats.com/2013/02/01/smith-barkley-glennon-and-wilson-a-metrics-breakdown/

I've also done individual breakdowns on Geno Smith (http://secondroundstats.com/2013/02/01/geno-smith-statistical-scouting-report/) and Matt Barkley (http://secondroundstats.com/2013/02/01/matt-barkley-statistical-scouting-report/). In the future I'll be posting my WR data on there (and posting a Dolphins-centric version here) as well as other positions I'll be looking at. Probably DE and CB right after I finish QBs and WRs. I hope everyone can find this useful or at least semi-interesting. I'll definitely be posting ones that apply more to the Dolphins soon enough.

ckparrothead
02-01-2013, 06:34 PM
What's your Twitter name so I can credit you for some of these stats?

NUGap
02-01-2013, 06:39 PM
@NUGap, appreciate it (my one follower is going to be pumped, ha..)

EDIT: But if you're so inclined and have the space, you can just link to the site at: wp.me/p375X8-26 it probably gives better info than my twitter account. No big deal though.

ckparrothead
02-01-2013, 06:48 PM
To quote something you wrote in the individual QB breakdown...


Heís throwing into single coverage a lot. This is the most concerning to me, 10% of his passes were deflected after throwing into single coverage. This is one of those things you want to supplement by watching tape, because you wonder if heís making bad decisions and throwing into tight coverage too much.

I don't see this as concerning at all. A number of things go into it obviously but one observation I often have about Barkley is that he throws a lot into single coverage in situations where he trusts his receiver to win and make a play. That's part of elevating the players around you. They either step up to the plate or they don't.

Take the following play.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=B4SfjfEyBgc#t=137s

On this play he's reading the single coverage and trusting Marquise Lee to cross Ifo Ekpre-Olomu's face and...well, essentially do anything BUT what Marquise Lee actually did on the play. Ifo got a little physical with Lee and some refs might've called it, others would let it go since it's the end zone, and instead of continuing on the route Lee just gives up on the route and starts lobbying for flags before the play is even over. It's a really bad rep for Marquise Lee and something he should answer to in interviews.

That's something you notice a lot when you watch a lot of Barkley. He's throwing to his receivers and asking them to win and make a play, making the right reads and making the right throws...but sometimes his receivers were just screwing around. They weren't very disciplined.

Take the fact that less than 6% of Geno Smith's throws went incomplete despite single coverage...where Barkley had 10% of his passes go incomplete in single coverage, that tells me that Geno's targets were winning more.

ckparrothead
02-01-2013, 06:51 PM
Also the fact that Geno Smith had 3x the number of passes go incomplete into double coverage as anyone else is something you notice if you watch Geno play a lot. He doesn't necessarily make good decisions consistently.

NUGap
02-01-2013, 06:59 PM
To quote something you wrote in the individual QB breakdown...



I don't see this as concerning at all. A number of things go into it obviously but one observation I often have about Barkley is that he throws a lot into single coverage in situations where he trusts his receiver to win and make a play. That's part of elevating the players around you. They either step up to the plate or they don't.

Take the following play.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=B4SfjfEyBgc#t=137s

On this play he's reading the single coverage and trusting Marquise Lee to cross Ifo Ekpre-Olomu's face and...well, essentially do anything BUT what Marquise Lee actually did on the play. Ifo got a little physical with Lee and some refs might've called it, others would let it go since it's the end zone, and instead of continuing on the route Lee just gives up on the route and starts lobbying for flags before the play is even over. It's a really bad rep for Marquise Lee and something he should answer to in interviews.

That's something you notice a lot when you watch a lot of Barkley. He's throwing to his receivers and asking them to win and make a play, making the right reads and making the right throws...but sometimes his receivers were just screwing around. They weren't very disciplined.

Absolutely, that was my read on it too. A lot of my data on the "single coverage" came on those 5 yard slants you see. Barkley's first and only read is to hit that slant regardless and the receiver has to be there to box out and make the play. I actually tried to be fairly forgiving towards the quarterback when marking down coverage and interceptions and overthrows. If I expected the receiver to make a play, I'd put it on the WR. There were some interceptions that were flukes that I ended up marking down as drops due to poor receiver play. That's exactly why I said you need to look at the tape more because statistics don't always tell the whole truth. When I'm trying to apply a "result" to all QBs there are going to be some flukes here and there. Luckily there are many more people smarter than I doing tape evaluation, hopefully I can just complement it with some stats.

Also I'm a big fan of Barkley's. I really liked him last year when I did all the stats. I haven't written it up yet, but his numbers hardly changed at all in terms of the passing game. He got a bit less accurate, but his deep ball actually drastically improved. I think he got a bad rap this year, but anyone who liked him last year should still like him this year.

---------- Post added at 06:59 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:58 PM ----------

Here's Barkley v. Barkley



Targets










Barkley 2011
Barkley


Screens
24.34
21.98%


1-5 Yards
26.55
30.22%


6-10 Yards
16.81
18.68%


11-20 Yards
16.81
17.58%


20+ Yards
15.49
11.54%





PRR Comp%










Barkley '11
Barkley


Screens
94.34
85.00


1-5 Yards
70.69
69.09


6-10 Yards
70.59
67.65


11-20 Yards
61.76
59.38


20+ Yards
40.63
52.38


Total
70.62
68.68

Twitches Brew
02-01-2013, 09:10 PM
Awesome job, NUGap. Much appreciated.

ckparrothead
02-01-2013, 09:26 PM
Just out of curiosity was looking at Barkley and Russell Wilson's stat splits. I excluded freshman performance and looked at them against Ranked opponents.

Russell Wilson completed 54.9% of his passes with 7.6 YPA, 6.57% TD and 2.86% INT against Ranked opponents. A 89.4 passer rating.
Matt Barkley completed 60.8% of his passes with 7.5 YPA, 5.97% TD and 2.98% INT against Ranked opponents. A 91.3 passer rating.

Actually pretty similar.

NUGap
02-01-2013, 10:15 PM
Just out of curiosity was looking at Barkley and Russell Wilson's stat splits. I excluded freshman performance and looked at them against Ranked opponents.

Russell Wilson completed 54.9% of his passes with 7.6 YPA, 6.57% TD and 2.86% INT against Ranked opponents. A 89.4 passer rating.
Matt Barkley completed 60.8% of his passes with 7.5 YPA, 5.97% TD and 2.98% INT against Ranked opponents. A 91.3 passer rating.

Actually pretty similar.

Although these aren't specifically against ranked opponents, we can make the comparison happen. This is Wilson 2011 versus Barkley 2012.



Comp%





Wilson
Barkley


Screens
100.00
85.00


1-5 Yards
92.59
69.09


6-10 Yards
63.16
67.65


11-20 Yards
68.18
59.38


20+ Yards
38.10
52.38


Total
70.10
68.68





Targets





Wilson
Barkley


Screens
8.82
21.98%


1-5 Yards
26.47
30.22%


6-10 Yards
20.59
18.68%


11-20 Yards
21.57
17.58%


20+ Yards
22.55
11.54%



I remember doing this last year and being impressed with Wilson's accuracy in the 11-20 range and how often he threw it deep. I mean people were talking about how short he was but he was going 20+ yards 23% of the time. Granted his completion percentage wasn't great, however it's most likely because he was going deep often.

I don't know how many similarities I see, at least in the nitty gritty of their college stats, but you of course have to account for system and everything. And that doesn't take away from their performances against good opponents. I loved how distributed Wilson's targets were in college, it just showed me that he was willing to throw that ball at whatever depth whenever he needed to (and the Wisky system). But I still see things I like in Barkley's game, like that his completion percentage doesn't drop off drastically at any certain point. You see that with Tyler Wilson especially.

As an aside, for anyone interested, I just finished up Tyler Wilson's breakdown. You can pretty much get the same numbers on the comparative charts, but sometimes it's helpful to see them in a vacuum. I'm just going to say I'm not a fan. http://secondroundstats.com/2013/02/02/wilson-scoutingreport/ (http://secondroundstats.com/2013/02/02/wilson-scoutingreport/)

NUGap
02-02-2013, 06:49 PM
Just talking straight QBs, I don't understand why Barkley is getting overlooked. I guess I do, but I don't think it's right. Everyone thinks they know Barkley, he's the name that was thrown about last year and this year, thus people are bored with him. For kicks and grins, I checked the page views on each individual breakdown I put up. Glennon has been up for like 3 hours and Barkley for 2 days and Glennon already has more views. Now, I actually like Glennon a bit, but I feel like Barkley is getting screwed. I suppose he's not the flavor of the day, but still. I don't know if that's going to translate to draft day and if teams will have the same mentality fans will. Will people be surprised when he goes higher than they think? I don't know, it's strange though.

EDIT: Again, for anyone interested, Glennon's individual stats are here: http://secondroundstats.com/2013/02/02/mike-glennon-statistical-scouting-report/

ckparrothead
02-03-2013, 01:28 AM
To me, Mike Glennon is extremely overrated.

I get it. He's got a big arm, he played in an offense that actually resembles a downfield-based NFL offense, and he made some big time plays this year. For stretches of games he looks like Hercules at quarterback. I get it.

But he clearly holds onto the ball too long and has trouble when put into situations where you need to speed up his decision making. It's no coincidence he was right up there for one of the most sacked QBs in college football this year, nor that he had the 2nd most fumbles in all college football this year behind only Taylor Martinez (a running quarterback).

He goes through stretches of games with just awful decision making and execution all the way around. He'll not see a blitz pre-snap, hold onto the ball way too long, make a decision that is really iffy based on the coverage, or just throw a football that (as we saw in the All Star Skills Challenge tonight which he flunked mightily) couldn't hit the broad side of a barn.

When you speed up the game on him in the pros, he's going to fall apart. He is no better a quarterback prospect than Nick Foles was a year ago, and might be considerably worse.

And you're right I don't know why Matt Barkley gets overlooked. Two of the previous (valid) criticisms of the guy were that he's not completing his downfield throws and he's performing poorly in the 4th quarter. So this year he has the best accuracy (by the numbers) of any of the top four quarterbacks at 20+ yards, and he has a 109.0 passer rating in the 4th quarter.

He took two of his weaknesses and completely flipped them around into strengths. And instead of being met with appreciation, people (absurdly and inaccurately) have him slipping out of the 1st round altogether.

NUGap
02-03-2013, 02:20 AM
Interesting on Glennon. Other than the numbers, I haven't really looked at him too much. I did notice the absurd amount of bad decisions when I was watching. You'd see excellent throws and then you'd wonder what he was thinking on the next throw. I keep getting slightly enticed by the fact that he's making far more "NFL throws" than most of the other guys, but if you're saying a turtle is faster than a snail - that's not saying much at all (I'm not sure where that analogy came from).

I was thinking about this the other day. If you're an NFL coach, all other things being equal, would you rather have a guy who overthrows his receivers consistently (Mike Glennon) or makes some bad decisions to throw into double coverage (Geno Smith). Assuming they're equal on all other factors, which is easier to coach out? I'm not sure about the answer to that question, as my quarterback coaching knowledge is wanting.

On the Matt Barkley front, I'm curious about the criticism too. I've seen comments on fan blogs eschewing Barkley as a prospect for having a "noodle arm" but then they'll advocate for Tyler Wilson. I was watching the Senior Bowl right after breaking down Tyler Wilson and saw his deep throw. As soon as he threw it, I called out that it was going to be underthrown. People keep telling me to go back to last year's tape and maybe I should, but I can't see how that's going to convince me he's not going to be constantly skipping balls in the dirt in the NFL. By no means am I someone who is impressed by pure arm strength (see Bray, Tyler), but damn you have to be able to get it there.

Here's my (super sketchy) calculations of relative fan interest in each QB prospect:
Geno Smith - 39%
Mike Glennon - 26%
Tyler Wilson - 21%
Matt Barkley - 17%

I don't understand...

ticophin
02-03-2013, 11:44 AM
Will Barkley be the best player on the board when we pick? Is he the kind of player to turn a franchise around, like Wilson with Sea? With 2 2nd rders and 2 3rd rders, would it be smart to pick up Barkley as a back up/competition for Tanny for the next 10-15 years? Now, Imagine picking WR-TE with our 2nds, CB-T-G with our 3rd and 4ths rders...Is picking Barkley a waste of a first rounder, or having quality at the most important position in football, all but assured for the immediate future of "our" franchise?? If we play our cards right in FAgency, with WRs like Bowe, Jennings, Wallace, and Amendola available...with our multiple early picks, suddenly picking up Barkley isnīt such a crazy idea, especially with Devlin as our only backup (I expect Moore to walk, he might want to have the opportunity to start)...

ckparrothead
02-03-2013, 03:11 PM
The arm strength thing with Barkley has reached ridiculous proportions with the fan base.

This is a video and a play that I like to reference a lot:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=B4SfjfEyBgc#t=161s

This throw is 56 to 57 yards through the air. The throw has a low trajectory and hits Marquise Lee in stride. Yesterday during the All Star Skills Challenge, Mike Glennon TOPPED OUT at 56 yards. And that was in a pressureless, padless, non-game environment with a full run-up to the trhow. Matt Barkley actually did this during a game.

And you know what? I see throws of that distance from Barkley all the time. Maybe once a game. That's way above norm. In an entire season of video on Ryan Mallett the longest throw I tracked of his was between 45 and 50 yards. Quarterbacks don't regularly reach for 55 to 60 yards functionally speaking and most offenses wouldn't ask it.

The thing to take away from this is there's practically no functional distance in a football game that Matt Barkley hasn't already proven he can't hit.

Do his throws always have the ripping power or low trajectory of Glennon? No, and that's not really the point. Glennon has a better natural arm. The point is that Barkley doesn't need to have Glennon's arm in order to be an NFL franchise quarterback, and his arm is so good that it is on occasion outperforming that of Glennon's. If that's the case, he's got plenty of arm.

NUGap
02-04-2013, 01:46 AM
I just worked up Nassib and it's puzzling to say the least. I'll post a full breakdown of Nassib, Dysert, Manuel (per requests of some people), but for now.

None of Nassib's completion percentages were below average from last year's class. His deep (20+) completion percentage was 62.5%, which is nuts, only behind RGIII last year. He went to the 11-20 yard range 27% of the time, which is only below Weeden from last year.

Yet the average distance of his throw is 5 yards (makes sense given the amount of 5 yard slants 'Cuse ran) and his 3rd down completion percentage is 50%. That's worse than the next guy, Geno, by 10%. I'm not sure what to make of Nassib. Depending on what stats you place importance on, he could be the best QB in the class or have major liabilities in "clutch" moments.

EDIT: Was just rewatching the first day of Senior Bowl practice. Heard Mayock compare Nassib to Kirk Cousins. Maybe the comparison in terms of him being a "smart" QB is legit, but I think it's unfair to stick him in with Cousins. When I did Cousin's breakdown last year, he was slightly below average at 20+ throws and downright bad at 11-20 yard throws. Again, maybe Nassib doesn't have the Glennon arm, but in the numbers he was excellent deep and average in the intermediate. Nassib's completion percentages are better in every area once you factor out drops and shows the ability to hit intermediate zones/ deep zones that Cousins didn't.

ChambersWI
02-04-2013, 12:03 PM
not to do with numbers, but a huge reason Barkley has fallen out of favor with some fanbases is that he has handled some non-Cali sports reporters and people on twitter very poorly. If you don't like something he says or does, he becomes very passive aggressive and smarmy at times.

That and people see how this year's Trojan's team acted and they get turned off by it (though to be fair, this team was filled with Punks. There was even a fight after their bowl game because a few Frosh called some upperclassmen out on not being leaders)

ckparrothead
02-04-2013, 12:24 PM
Nassib is an intriguing prospect but the reach to put him in the 1st round in my opinion is a function of the comparison with the rest of the quarterbacks in this class, most of whom aren't good enough.

E.J. Manuel intrigues me among this class of incomplete quarterbacks just because he has some of the most complete raw skills, though his inconsistency is there for all to see. Tracking his production in FSU's offense might not yield the predictive results one would think, as FSU runs a very predictable, easy to defend offense. Jimbo Fisher should have been fired long ago as their offensive coordinator, let alone hired as their head coach. And that's not just me talking about their offense. Back in 2011 we spoke with freshman Oklahoma linebacker Tom Wort about Christian Ponder and he told us that Ponder is better than people think and will benefit a lot when he gets out of that offense. He said they were easily able to predict the offense, that there was no imagination to it and it just wasn't very fundamentally challenging to a defense. With the way NFL offenses are adapting to guys with multiple skills like Colin Kaepernick, Robert Griffin, Russell Wilson and Cam Newton, E.J. Manuel is one of the only QBs in this class that really presents that kind of array of skills and one wonders if after some years of coaching a good offensive coordinator couldn't make something out of him.

Manuel also notches off some mocre traditional standards which used to mean something. He won 12 games this year. Over the last two years he's gone 21-5 in games in which he's played a lot, over his four years at FSU you'd probably say he's 26-7 as the game's primary QB, and that includes being 4-0 in bowl games. He's got a career 67% completion rate. He's 6043 and 237 lbs, with over 10 inch hands. He showed up at the Senior Bowl and won the game MVP. And of course he's a heck of an athlete that will test well.

These are not necessarily things that make a guy automatically good at the next level, but they are things that tended to be appreciated in the past, I think for good reason. One of the reasons I liked the 2011 QB class so much even though everyone loved to hate on them was because they notched all kinds of these traditional measures. Newton went undefeated in his final year. Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick won 13 games a piece. Speaking of the guys that I think most considered to be vying for position at the top of that Draft (Newton, Mallett, Gabbert, Ponder, Dalton, Kaepernick, Locker, Stanzi, Yates), most of them were 6'4" or better with 220+ lbs of solid weight on them. All but I think Locker notched at least 60 percent completion in their careers. More than half of them tested out physically like wide receivers, they were so mobile. None of them really had weak arm strength.

So I don't find it so surprising that four of that class have already become successful starters (way higher than normal average draft class), and that the jury is still out on several more. I think Gabbert is already flaming out, and I think Locker is halfway there (which doesn't surprise me). We've yet to get the opportunity to see on Mallett, Stanzi or Yates. I think Mallett and Yates could surprise when they get their chances.

Fin Thirteen
02-04-2013, 01:14 PM
Those stats shock me.

I'd have expected to see Barkley come out badly on deep throw accuracy and Geno to shine on the 10-deep throws. Too often I see Barkley hurl a pass upfield where it misses his receiver by a clear 3 or 40 yards. When he misses his man, he really misses him - from what I've seen. So to see him considerably more accurate on the deep ball than the others is a pleasant surprise to me.

People are asking how come nobody is talking about Barkley. I'm wondering why people aren't talking more about Smith. He's the best QB by a distance in the draft. I'm not sure where he would have gone last season, but this season he's the best by a mile.

Geno has such wonderful touch. He just lands the ball in the catch radius so invitingly it seems harder to drop it than catch it. He stays fundamentally sound in his throws, regardless of the circumstances or the pressure. You see the same consistency in Bailey as a receiver, always fundamentally right with his footwork and routes, always smooth and unfussed. I bet WVU have some very interesting and demanding practice methods.

What Geno has is a valuable commodity. That poise, that accuracy, that touch. Impossible to teach from scratch. He's going to make some GM a very happy man - in a season or two. So I'm amazed to read his deep accuracy is actually fairly poor - I'd never have predicted it. While Barkley's long accuracy stats bump him up in my opinion, I'm still buying Smith. Hate to see him go to the Jets.

Fin Thirteen
02-04-2013, 01:16 PM
I like Nassib. A leader with a nice, quick accurate delivery. I wouldn't even take him in the second round though. As CK says, it's a case of his peers making him look more attractive a pick than he really is.

NUGap
02-04-2013, 02:37 PM
People are asking how come nobody is talking about Barkley. I'm wondering why people aren't talking more about Smith. He's the best QB by a distance in the draft. I'm not sure where he would have gone last season, but this season he's the best by a mile.
.

People are talking about Geno. I posted this over at Arrowhead Pride, on the SBNation network and chiefs fans are rabid talking about Geno. I don't think he's getting the pub in the media, but fans are dedicating pages upon pages to arguing over whether Geno is worth the 1st pick. There's two separate camps, the "Geno is a system QB" or "Geno is the second coming" people. Both have claimed that the posted stats have proven their point.

Interesting on Nassib. Right now I'd take Nassib in a heartbeat over Kirk Cousins (without knowledge of Cousins' NFL stint) in a draft. Cousins was drafted in the 4th, so I'd be looking at Nassib at worst in the 3rd. I don't think Nassib is the best QB by any means, but I'd definitely be taking him over Tyler Wilson. I think I could put Nassib as high as the 3rd best QB after looking at him a bit more. It surely doesn't make him a bona fide first rounder, but QBs getting pushed up the board is a sign of our times.

ckparrothead
02-04-2013, 03:46 PM
Geno Smith has been widely rated the top overall quarterback in the NFL Draft for like 3 months, and I think at least half of the mock drafts out there have him going #1 overall, the other half have him going in the top 10.

I don't see how that can be spun as nobody talking about the guy.

I think he's overrated, personally. Very questionable decision making, consistency. Should be a 2nd rounder, IMO.

Fin Thirteen
02-04-2013, 06:11 PM
Well, I get the feeling he's being slotted in on the basis of being "the best of a bad lot" rather than being a top QB in his own right.

NUGap
02-08-2013, 03:05 PM
Because I don't think enough people are interested in QBs besides the select few who commented in this thread and I don't want to create yet another thread, here are the links to my breakdowns of Nassib, Manuel and Dysert.

Overall Breakdown (http://wp.me/p375X8-44)

Nassib Breakdown (http://secondroundstats.com/2013/02/08/ryan-nassib-statistical-scouting-report/)

Manuel Breakdown (http://secondroundstats.com/2013/02/08/ej-manuel-statistical-scouting-report/)

Dysert Breakdown (http://secondroundstats.com/2013/02/08/zac-dysert-statistical-scouting-report/)

​For those interested, enjoy!

EDIT:

Highlights:

-Dysert has a 69% completion percentage past 20 yards, but on very limited attempts (7.8% of his passes)
-Nassib has a 62.5% completion percentage past 20 yards on a decent amount of attempts (~10%), his accuracy in all zones is either average or above-average
-Nassib and Dysert's completion percentages on 3rd down are 50% and 48.6% respectively, pretty bad
-EJ Manuel's 11-20 yard completion percentage is excellent at 73% but again...on limited attempts. Past 20 yards his completion percentage falls to 42%, lowest in this class
-52% of EJ Manuel's passes were within 5 yards of the LOS, tied for Barkley for the highest of the last two classes. Only 26% of his passes were past ten yards