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Section126
08-01-2004, 06:55 PM
From the Gallup Poll post convention analysis and polling:

"Compared with the last CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey conducted before the convention (July 19-21), this post-convention poll shows that among likely voters, Kerry's support is actually two points lower than it was pre-convention, while Bush's support is three points higher. Among registered voters, Kerry's support in the current poll is one point higher than it was pre-convention, while Bush's support is also higher, by two points (the percentage of undecideds dropped in both groups)."

"All of these changes are within the margin of error, meaning that we cannot be 95% certain that Bush gained on Kerry after the convention. However, clearly there is no convention bounce for Kerry."

"An analysis of convention bounces since 1950 shows that on average, among registered voters, the Democratic candidate received approximately a seven-point increase in support following the convention. The current poll shows only a one-point increase among registered voters. In addition, following previous Democratic conventions, the Republican candidate also lost an average of about five points, making the net effect essentially a 12-point swing in the lead. The current poll shows only a 1-point swing in the lead among registered voters, but for the Republican, not the Democrat."

"In the three-way race, Kerry lost a point among likely voters after the convention, and he neither gained nor lost among registered voters. Bush gained four points both among likely voters and among registered voters. To the extent that there is any bounce in this three-candidate ballot, it is for Bush rather than Kerry."

"The CNN/USA Today/Gallup surveys over the past several months have shown surprising stability in the presidential contest, with both candidates' support levels varying within a narrow range. Kerry led by six points in early March, but then Bush led by six in mid-April. In early June, Kerry led by six, but that moved to a virtual tie, until Kerry led by five in early July. Now Bush leads by four."

I guess the American people saw Mr. Kerry for the turd he is.

DolphinDevil28
08-01-2004, 07:11 PM
Don't get me wrong, I agree with you 100% about Kerry and I want GW to win very badly, but I think the reason there was such a small bounce was because the country is so divided in this election and there is so very little swing vote. We won't get a big bounce after our convention either.

ABrownLamp
08-01-2004, 07:16 PM
polls, shmollz. You show me one and I'll show you another that contradicts it. Please don't act like this poll is the end all be all of American sentiment. Save it till November.

PhinPhan1227
08-01-2004, 08:16 PM
Polls at this point are a bit of a joke. There are only 5-10% of voters who are undecided who to vote FOR. Polls will vary depending on who gets polled. Honestly, the thing that will decide this election is turnout. And that won't come out until election day. Plenty of people who say they will vote don't bother.

iceblizzard69
08-01-2004, 08:19 PM
Don't get me wrong, I agree with you 100% about Kerry and I want GW to win very badly, but I think the reason there was such a small bounce was because the country is so divided in this election and there is so very little swing vote. We won't get a big bounce after our convention either.

I don't agree with your position but you are right. I would say that a lot more people have already decided who they are voting for at this point than in past elections. I doubt there are many people if any at all who are still debating whether to vote for Bush or Kerry. I know there are some who have said they won't vote for Bush or won't vote for Kerry (probably a lot more in this catagory of "won't vote for Bush") but haven't decided if they will vote for a big party candidate or a third party one.

Section126
08-01-2004, 08:48 PM
The point is that this is the first time in history that a candidate has gotten a negative bounce from his convention......This is not only an anomoly but a very bad sign for Mr. Kerry and a good one for Bush......My Opinion of course....but it's based on historical fact...there is no way to spin this in favor of Lurch.......

Clumpy
08-01-2004, 11:17 PM
The point is that this is the first time in history that a candidate has gotten a negative bounce from his convention......This is not only an anomoly but a very bad sign for Mr. Kerry and a good one for Bush......My Opinion of course....but it's based on historical fact...there is no way to spin this in favor of Lurch.......


You are clueless. As PhinPhan stated, both sides are competing for only a few percentage of the vote. Not much of a bounce was expected. Some polls have shown a 4 pt bounce, others have shown no bounce. Again, the results of a poll are dictated by what the poll population is and HOW the question are worded (<---this is a key thing that people fail to realize)

ohall
08-02-2004, 12:01 AM
The point is that this is the first time in history that a candidate has gotten a negative bounce from his convention......This is not only an anomoly but a very bad sign for Mr. Kerry and a good one for Bush......My Opinion of course....but it's based on historical fact...there is no way to spin this in favor of Lurch.......

I'm with you S-126, this is not good for Kerry. I would think after reading these stats after his convention he has to be very worried.

You cannot put aside that this is the 1st time this has ever happened. This is serious trouble for Kerry. Further if Bush gets a bump after his convention all these ppl putting this aside will have to start dealing with reality. Kerry is not a liked politician, he's not even tolerated outside of the way left and they chose poorly as far as their canidate. If Edwards was their Presidential canidate I have no doubt the DEM's would be up by at least 7-9 points in the polls. Kerry is a stiff.

Oliver...

PhinPhan1227
08-02-2004, 01:53 AM
You are clueless. As PhinPhan stated, both sides are competing for only a few percentage of the vote. Not much of a bounce was expected. Some polls have shown a 4 pt bounce, others have shown no bounce. Again, the results of a poll are dictated by what the poll population is and HOW the question are worded (<---this is a key thing that people fail to realize)


Yeah, at this point if Gallup was being honest he would take the rest of the year off. Again, out of 100 people, I doubt more than 4-5 don't know who they want to vote for, and of those 4-5, 3-4 of them won't bother to vote. This is going to be another divsive, ugly election with both sides calling foul.

PhinPhan1227
08-02-2004, 01:54 AM
I'm with you S-126, this is not good for Kerry. I would think after reading these stats after his convention he has to be very worried.

You cannot put aside that this is the 1st time this has ever happened. This is serious trouble for Kerry. Further if Bush gets a bump after his convention all these ppl putting this aside will have to start dealing with reality. Kerry is not a liked politician, he's not even tolerated outside of the way left and they chose poorly as far as their canidate. If Edwards was their Presidential canidate I have no doubt the DEM's would be up by at least 7-9 points in the polls. Kerry is a stiff.

Oliver...

This is also the first time in recent history that the country was this divided going into an election.

Clumpy
08-02-2004, 02:37 AM
This is also the first time in recent history that the country was this divided going into an election.


Very true

ohall
08-02-2004, 03:35 AM
This is also the first time in recent history that the country was this divided going into an election.

And that is why Kerry can not afford to lose ground especially after his convention. He will never again get such a positive week of press. Conventions are a high point, they are not a low point.

Kerry is in serious trouble more so than any other Presidential canidate anyone has ever seen. This country is no more divided now than back in 1980 when Carter and Reagan were in a virtual tie during Carter's convention. Even Carter got I believe a 6 or 7 point bump.

Kerry is in deep trouble.

Oliver...

Clumpy
08-02-2004, 03:45 AM
And that is why Kerry can not afford to lose ground especially after his convention. He will never again get such a positive week of press. Conventions are a high point, they are not a low point.

Kerry is in serious trouble more so than any other Presidential canidate anyone has ever seen. This country is no more divided now than back in 1980 when Carter and Reagan were in a virtual tie during Carter's convention. Even Carter got I believe a 6 or 7 point bump.

Kerry is in deep trouble.

Oliver...

Personal bias? :yes:

PhinPhan1227
08-02-2004, 04:52 AM
And that is why Kerry can not afford to lose ground especially after his convention. He will never again get such a positive week of press. Conventions are a high point, they are not a low point.

Kerry is in serious trouble more so than any other Presidential canidate anyone has ever seen. This country is no more divided now than back in 1980 when Carter and Reagan were in a virtual tie during Carter's convention. Even Carter got I believe a 6 or 7 point bump.

Kerry is in deep trouble.

Oliver...

Problem is Oliver, with the people SO divided, and SO many people already decided, as I see it any changes in polling data are a result of different sample populations and different questions being used. I just don't see too many people NOT voting for Kerry after the Convention if they were going to vote for him before. Also, I again stress that it won't be decided by the poll figures, but by which side gets more of it's followers to go to the polls. That and the percentages in the swing states. This could be another election where Bush loses the pop vote but again wins the EC.

Clumpy
08-02-2004, 05:31 AM
There are also 3 months for events to alter people's impressions of both. Positives in the economy/war in Iraq/war on terrorism, etc will obviously swing voters towards Bush. Negatives towards Kerry.

Section126
08-02-2004, 09:33 AM
You are clueless. As PhinPhan stated, both sides are competing for only a few percentage of the vote. Not much of a bounce was expected. Some polls have shown a 4 pt bounce, others have shown no bounce. Again, the results of a poll are dictated by what the poll population is and HOW the question are worded (<---this is a key thing that people fail to realize)

I am clueless? Mr. Dolphins in Cap Jail and no way that they can spend 11 million?

There is 10% of the electorate of which 6% is easily persuaded......Kerry got NONE of those people......Yeah........This is Good for Lurch......

Clump...please go back to making dire predictions about the Dolphins Cap Future because you obviously are living in a fantasy land if you don't think that this is HORRIBLE News for Lurch and the Breck Girl.

Clumpy
08-02-2004, 09:52 AM
http://usatoday.printthis.clickability.com/pt/cpt?action=cpt&title=USATODAY.com+-+Poll%3A+No+boost+for+Kerry+after+convention&expire=&urlID=11186062&fb=Y&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.usatoday.com%2Fnews%2Fpoliticselections%2Fnation%2Fpresident%2F2004-08-01-poll-kerry_x.htm&partnerID=1660


763 likely voters? Not really a truly representative picture. I think they need a larger N

PhinPhan1227
08-02-2004, 11:53 AM
There are also 3 months for events to alter people's impressions of both. Positives in the economy/war in Iraq/war on terrorism, etc will obviously swing voters towards Bush. Negatives towards Kerry.


I doubt that will even sway things much. People are so polarized that it would take something huge to sway the vast majority.

Section126
08-02-2004, 03:18 PM
http://usatoday.printthis.clickability.com/pt/cpt?action=cpt&title=USATODAY.com+-+Poll%3A+No+boost+for+Kerry+after+convention&expire=&urlID=11186062&fb=Y&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.usatoday.com%2Fnews%2Fpoliticselections%2Fnation%2Fpresident%2F2004-08-01-poll-kerry_x.htm&partnerID=1660


763 likely voters? Not really a truly representative picture. I think they need a larger N

Well..The Washington Post Poll and the CBS news poll is showing the same thing......

I think the ABC poll is the only one showing a bump although it has not been released yet.....(comes out tonight)

ohall
08-02-2004, 07:51 PM
Personal bias? :yes:

Keep thinking that. Keep thinking getting a negative bump after you introduce your campaign to the USA is a GOOD thing.

Oliver...

ohall
08-02-2004, 07:55 PM
Problem is Oliver, with the people SO divided, and SO many people already decided, as I see it any changes in polling data are a result of different sample populations and different questions being used. I just don't see too many people NOT voting for Kerry after the Convention if they were going to vote for him before. Also, I again stress that it won't be decided by the poll figures, but by which side gets more of it's followers to go to the polls. That and the percentages in the swing states. This could be another election where Bush loses the pop vote but again wins the EC.

I could see your point if it were not for the FACT that every poll has Kerry dropping points after his convention while Bush #43 is gaining in all those same polls.

It shows me all the samples are similar at the very least. There is at minimum a negative trend with Kerry and unlike Kerry Bush is making gains while Kerry is dropping. Kerry's never gained while Bush was dropping.

Things will not get better for Kerry from this point, they will only get better because he no longer has a convention to get free coverage like he did the past week. This was his only real chance to make a serious gain in the polls and he couldn't do that. I do not think it's spin to say the man is in serious political trouble. He introduced himself to the USA and the results came back that they did't like him. And further the ppl who were on his side have begun to leave him. Pretty soon the rats will start to leave the ship.

Oliver...

PhinPhan1227
08-02-2004, 08:05 PM
I could see your point if it were not for the FACT that every poll has Kerry dropping points after his convention while Bush #43 is gaining in all those same polls.

It shows me all the samples are similar at the very least. There is at minimum a negative trend with Kerry and unlike Kerry Bush is making gains while Kerry is dropping. Kerry's never gained while Bush was dropping.

Things will not get better for Kerry from this point, they will only get better because he no longer has a convention to get free coverage like he did the past week. This was his only real chance to make a serious gain in the polls and he couldn't do that. I do not think it's spin to say the man is in serious political trouble. He introduced himself to the USA and the results came back that they did't like him. And further the ppl who were on his side have begun to leave him. Pretty soon the rats will start to leave the ship.

Oliver...

I've been involved in polling before and I just wouldn't bother. It's like picking the Superbowl winner from training camp production. The wording of the questions, and the sampling are so subjective it's crazy. And again, turnout is going to win this election, and poll numbers can't show that.

ohall
08-02-2004, 09:19 PM
I've been involved in polling before and I just wouldn't bother. It's like picking the Superbowl winner from training camp production. The wording of the questions, and the sampling are so subjective it's crazy. And again, turnout is going to win this election, and poll numbers can't show that.

Just clarify, I totally agree with you. But these polls are run by DEM leaning ppl who say Kerry lost ground, these are not the REP leaning pollsters. Further the way I'm thinking is because these pollsters have basically been asking the same question these past months and because Kerry's 1st real loss of ground came after his convention this shows because ppl now know what he's about some ppl have decided to no longer support him for President. If these polls came out during any other time I would tend to agree with you. I think this is the start of a slide for Kerry.

Oliver...

Karl_12
08-03-2004, 12:37 AM
Polls in July/August are like sports casters always picking the Dolphins to go to the Super Bowl. No matter what any one thinks this will be another close election. The country is at polar opposites and most have already made up there minds. It will come down to two states Florida and Ohio.

PhinPhan1227
08-03-2004, 03:36 AM
Polls in July/August are like sports casters always picking the Dolphins to go to the Super Bowl. No matter what any one thinks this will be another close election. The country is at polar opposites and most have already made up there minds. It will come down to two states Florida and Ohio.


You know...it would be so much easier to take you seriously without the "better than Marino" thing. It's like trying to have a serious conversation AFTER the person in front of you mentioned the voices that tell him to kill. :lol:

Karl_12
08-03-2004, 05:26 PM
You know...it would be so much easier to take you seriously without the "better than Marino" thing. It's like trying to have a serious conversation AFTER the person in front of you mentioned the voices that tell him to kill. :lol:
Oh come on you know it is true.;)

PhinPhan1227
08-03-2004, 05:29 PM
Oh come on you know it is true.;)

Lol...only in the world created by fat pasty white guys who have spent one too many winters stuck indoors eating one MORE basket of chicken wings :cool:

ohall
08-03-2004, 11:19 PM
Lol...only in the world created by fat pasty white guys who have spent one too many winters stuck indoors eating one MORE basket of chicken wings :cool:

MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM wings!

Oliver...

DolFan31
08-04-2004, 12:00 AM
MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM wings!

Oliver...

:drool: winnggggsss.....