PDA

View Full Version : Betting Advice



Philter25
11-18-2004, 10:45 AM
Please dont respond if you havent bet before or have no idea what Im talkin about.

Ok ladies, I usually just play in the 10 buck office pool and we pick games based on the spread every week. My boss however puts between 50-250 a week on games and he calls up his bookie and has a running tab. He always asks me for advice and what I think on some teams. He knows im know a ton about Miami and Philly since they have been my teams since I was a lil pup.

I have been 6-3 in picking Miami games against the spread and PERFECT in picking Philly against the spread (yes, I did pick the Pitt loss).

This week however I dont know, Philly is giving 11 against Washington so I dont know what to tell him so I told him that. I think Philly should win but their run defense has looked like crap lately and Portis has a chance to control the game, even though Washington stinks, they have one of the better defenses in the NFL so I think an 11 point spread is a tough one for me to pick Philly...

Same with Seattle giving 10 on Miami..... I just dont know. Both games are the highest 2 spreads in the NFL this week and with AJ starting I dunno how many TD's for 7 he is going to give up. Seattle has decent CB's and I do expect an INT which can easily screw up my spread.

THEREFORE my boss wants me to do a Parlay bet with him this week and after looking through the Odds and the teams playing, there seems to be 4 good choices for me, we are doing a 3 team parlay paying out 6:1.

My choices are:
-4 SanDiego at Oakland
-4 Denver at New Orleans
-2.5 Atlanta at NYG
-4.5 Pittsburgh at Cincy

I need to pick 3 of the 4 but I cant knock one off the list.
NO did put up points last week against KC but their defense is horrible. Denver is Dr.Jekyll Mr.Hyde so im not sure who shows up. It better not be the same Denver that lost to Cincy on MNF.

SanDiego spanked Oakland 42-whatever the first time they played in SD. This games in Oakland but I still think they cover the spread

Atlanta -2.5 at NYG looks like the best bet for me. Atlanta's D has been pretty good and I know their O will score against the Gmen

Pitt at -4.5 I think is a lock. Chad Johnson is runnin his mouth again and last time that happened he got spanked by Cleveland. Even with Staley out, Bettis can still run for 100 yards and the Pitt D is playing sick. They destroyed Philly, but granted Philly was injury laden and looked like **** and I see no reason why they cant cover -4.5 in Cincy...

So Who do I not pick? Right now im sure:
26% Sure Pitt
26% Sure Atlanta
26% Sure SanDiego
22% Sure Denver

Also they are all road teams, I know the odds of 3 road teams winning in the NFL are slightly against me, but these are pretty favorable spreads IMO.

So im slightly leaning towards not picking Denver...... any thoughts? I want to destroy my boss and putting 100 bucks on a 6:1 parlay payout would let me stick out my chest all week.....

LIQUID24
11-18-2004, 11:07 AM
I wouldn't pick on the Denver game.

FIN-IN-RI
11-18-2004, 11:19 AM
^what he said^

stay away from denver

Philter25
11-18-2004, 11:29 AM
I was leaning the same way. The other teams are more consistent. The denver spread just stood out at me because NO I think defensively is one of the WORST teams in the NFL and I pick against NO every week. Denver can easily put up 500 yards total offense against them but they, like I said, are a complete Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde team.

Any more thoughts on games that are better lines than the 3 I listed above?

I ALWAYS pick Philly, but the -11 is too much for me. If I see a double digit spread in the NFL I get the hell away from it. Same with Miami +10.

iceblizzard69
11-18-2004, 12:50 PM
Atlanta and Pittsburgh look like pretty good picks to me. San Diego looks good as well.

The Denver/NO game is a very tough call. If I was forced to pick on that game, I would pick NO, but if I didn't have to bet on it, I wouldn't. Picking either team in that game is really risky.

FIN-IN-RI
11-18-2004, 12:52 PM
I was leaning the same way. The other teams are more consistent. The denver spread just stood out at me because NO I think defensively is one of the WORST teams in the NFL and I pick against NO every week. Denver can easily put up 500 yards total offense against them but they, like I said, are a complete Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde team.

Any more thoughts on games that are better lines than the 3 I listed above?

I ALWAYS pick Philly, but the -11 is too much for me. If I see a double digit spread in the NFL I get the hell away from it. Same with Miami +10.

I don't see the Hawks covering so it might be a safe bet to go with Miami. Philly almost always covers, skins dont have achance IMO

Philter25
11-18-2004, 12:59 PM
I don't see the Hawks covering so it might be a safe bet to go with Miami. Philly almost always covers, skins dont have achance IMO
My logic with the fins +10 is that AJ is worth +7 for Seattle, He will get picked and that can screw me easily.

Also with the big spreads, both run defenses are horrible. Miami is like 31st in the league in run defense going against Alexander...... I wonder what Seattle does?

Philly's run defense has looked like crap the last 2 weeks going against Portis and a decent Washington Oline.... hmm, I wonder what they do. I think Philly will win, but I dunno about covering 11.

Philly has covered all spreads except they pushed a 10 spread earlier in the year and then I bet on them to lose to Pitt and they did. Miami however I dont know. I dont like betting on the fins because I think homerism takes over a little and I try to be as logical as possible.

Jwcolour
11-18-2004, 03:50 PM
[QUOTE=Philter25]
Philly's run defense has looked like crap the last 2 weeks going against Portis and a decent Washington Oline.... hmm, I wonder what they do. I think Philly will win, but I dunno about covering 11.
QUOTE]

Well Washingtons passing has been comparable to ours recently. Take that into account

BigFinFan
11-19-2004, 01:19 AM
I would stay away from Denver, but I would take Miami +10 in a minute!