Commentary: CKParrothead Previews Fins vs Jets

[phinfan33]

CK,good article there man. you sure do know ur sh!t about the Phins and about alot of other teams,but again,good article,i really enjoyed it.

[ckparrothead]

Honestly, it's become chic to talk about the Dolphins winning 6 to 8 games this year. Where are those wins going to come from? They have to come from somewhere, don't they?

And if they don't come at the expense of a 4-12 team, at home in Miami, in September when the Dolphins have such an historical advantage at home in September...where the hell ARE those 6 to 8 wins going to come from?

[hooshoops]

Originally Posted by ckparrothead

Honestly, it's become chic to talk about the Dolphins winning 6 to 8 games this year. Where are those wins going to come from? They have to come from somewhere, don't they?

And if they don't come at the expense of a 4-12 team, at home in Miami, in September when the Dolphins have such an historical advantage at home in September...where the hell ARE those 6 to 8 wins going to come from?

i'd be more on board for a win if brett favre wasn't under center. he's seen just about everything and has the arm and know how to exploit any weakness.

i'd also be more on board if the olbs had shown me more in the pass rush. as is i see us having to blitz ilbs and secondary to create pressure and i see favre cutting us up vertically when he sees it.

[Phinsfan210]

Great Read man, You know your shi*

[ckparrothead]

Originally Posted by hooshoops

i'd be more on board for a win if brett favre wasn't under center. he's seen just about everything and has the arm and know how to exploit any weakness.

i'd also be more on board if the olbs had shown me more in the pass rush. as is i see us having to blitz ilbs and secondary to create pressure and i see favre cutting us up vertically when he sees it.

Yeah but honestly, the last time we saw Favre operating a bad team that couldn't run the ball consistently...he was getting QB ratings in the 70's.

Brett Favre's not going to matter much when the Jets defense starts giving way to the Dolphins' ground game in the second half because of the heat, among other things. Ricky and Ronnie can keep him off the field...and this could be one of those games where the Jets don't realize they're in a dog fight until it's too late.

[Vaark]

Thank you for the inspired detailed analysis.. Your analytical eye for detail and ability to weed out wheat and prioritize the chafe is impressive and probably would serve you well in more commercial endeavors as well . Keep up the good work!

FWIW, I've been using this sig for over a week now and agree that the difference in an inherently close game will be the heat/humidity conditioning.

[SabanHater]

nice write up, CK.

My favorite part:

Dolphins 16, Jets 14

[ckparrothead]

Originally Posted by Vaark

Thank you for the inspired detailed analysis.. Your analytical eye for detail and ability to weed out wheat and prioritize the chafe is impressive and probably would serve you well in more commercial endeavors as well . Keep up the good work!

FWIW, I've been using this sig for over a week now and agree that the difference in an inherently close game will be the heat/humidity conditioning.

Come to think of it, I probably should have used your predicted score!

But, isn't the over/under for this game something like 35 points, with the money flowing to the under? That's sort of why I did 16-14.

[hooshoops]

Originally Posted by ckparrothead

Yeah but honestly, the last time we saw Favre operating a bad team that couldn't run the ball consistently...he was getting QB ratings in the 70's.

Brett Favre's not going to matter much when the Jets defense starts giving way to the Dolphins' ground game in the second half because of the heat, among other things. Ricky and Ronnie can keep him off the field...and this could be one of those games where the Jets don't realize they're in a dog fight until it's too late.

so i'll take it you think we will completely shut down the jets run game thus the favre ratings remarks. i know we're improved but i'm not so sure the front 7 can handle the run without the help of the 8th man coming up in run support. i don't like the thought of favre under center and our corners on an island.

[ckparrothead]

Originally Posted by hooshoops

so i'll take it you think we will completely shut down the jets run game thus the favre ratings remarks. i know we're improved but i'm not so sure the front 7 can handle the run without the help of the 8th man coming up in run support. i don't like the thought of favre under center and our corners on an island.

Against the Jets, they will stop the run, even without an 8th man. I do not have a high opinion of the Jets' ability to run the ball, even with the additions of Faneca and Woody. I do not sense any cohesion on that blocking front. Thomas Jones was averaging 2.4 yards per in the preseason, and the entire unit was averaging like 2.6 yards per during the first halves of preseason games. I'm just not buying on that run game yet.

What I sort of envisioned when I came up with the 16-14 score was this.

Brett Favre comes right out of the gate throwing two touchdowns on us in the first half, looking impressive and getting the Jets confident.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins stick to it, begin to slow the Jets down in the second half, and chip away at the lead with field goal after field goal, turning it into a 14-9 game.

Then, in the fourth quarter, the Jets continue to get shut out in the second half offensively, and by the time they realize they're in a dog fight with the Dolphins over this game, it'll be too late. Their defense is too tired to stop Ricky and Ronnie, and Pennington helps them get the ball into the end zone for the winning score.

That's kind of how I see it.

[hooshoops]

Originally Posted by ckparrothead

Against the Jets, they will stop the run, even without an 8th man. I do not have a high opinion of the Jets' ability to run the ball, even with the additions of Faneca and Woody. I do not sense any cohesion on that blocking front. Thomas Jones was averaging 2.4 yards per in the preseason, and the entire unit was averaging like 2.6 yards per during the first halves of preseason games. I'm just not buying on that run game yet.

What I sort of envisioned when I came up with the 16-14 score was this.

Brett Favre comes right out of the gate throwing two touchdowns on us in the first half, looking impressive and getting the Jets confident.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins stick to it, begin to slow the Jets down in the second half, and chip away at the lead with field goal after field goal, turning it into a 14-9 game.

Then, in the fourth quarter, the Jets continue to get shut out in the second half offensively, and by the time they realize they're in a dog fight with the Dolphins over this game, it'll be too late. Their defense is too tired to stop Ricky and Ronnie, and Pennington helps them get the ball into the end zone for the winning score.

That's kind of how I see it.

sounds to me like you're banking on the run d we saw in the preseason carrying over to the regular season at least against the jets in week 1. i'm cautiously optimistic it will but we're awfully green in some of that front 3 rotation.

i think the use of the te on our backers will really offset the lack of a running game in helping to move the chains.

[ckparrothead]

Originally Posted by hooshoops

sounds to me like you're banking on the run d we saw in the preseason carrying over to the regular season at least against the jets in week 1. i'm cautiously optimistic it will but we're awfully green in some of that front 3 rotation.

i think the use of the te on our backers will really offset the lack of a running game in helping to move the chains.

I am, absolutely.

But, in addition to that:

1. I'm not a buyer on Damien Woody as a top tier Right Tackle.

2. Dustin Keller is a weakness when blocking, yet he's such a mismatch on the likes of Ayodele and Roth in the passing game that they will want to get him into the game on some run downs so as to avoid his presence becoming a run/pass tip-off.

3. Brandon Moore is below average as a Right Guard.

4. D'Brickashaw Ferguson can't run block to save his life.

5. I believe that Thomas Jones is almost completely broken down as an NFL running back, and the only reason the Jets don't share the same opinion is because his weight room prowess and practice habits continually make him a coach's favorite, not unlike Ricky Williams.

This isn't JUST about what the Jets have shown this preseason. This is about what the Jets looked like before they set one foot onto a preseason football field...COMBINED with how they looked once they actually did play some preseason games. When the theory and the data are both pointing in the same direction, to me it's significant.

Seeing all of those weaknesses above, I can't think that Alan Faneca, Nick Mangold, Tony Richardson, Chris Baker and Leon Washington can fashion together a run game all by themselves against Miami's strengthened front. Remember, Matt Roth at OLB is a kitchen sink measure to stop the run, and an effective one at that. Forget about his pass rush and forget about his coverage. When it comes to setting the edge and stopping the run, he's as good as it gets as an OLB.

[hooshoops]

Originally Posted by ckparrothead

I am, absolutely.

But, in addition to that:

1. I'm not a buyer on Damien Woody as a top tier Right Tackle.

2. Dustin Keller is a weakness when blocking, yet he's such a mismatch on the likes of Ayodele and Roth in the passing game that they will want to get him into the game on some run downs so as to avoid his presence becoming a run/pass tip-off.

3. Brandon Moore is below average as a Right Guard.

4. D'Brickashaw Ferguson can't run block to save his life.

5. I believe that Thomas Jones is almost completely broken down as an NFL running back, and the only reason the Jets don't share the same opinion is because his weight room prowess and practice habits continually make him a coach's favorite, not unlike Ricky Williams.

This isn't JUST about what the Jets have shown this preseason. This is about what the Jets looked like before they set one foot onto a preseason football field...COMBINED with how they looked once they actually did play some preseason games. When the theory and the data are both pointing in the same direction, to me it's significant.

Seeing all of those weaknesses above, I can't think that Alan Faneca, Nick Mangold, Tony Richardson, Chris Baker and Leon Washington can fashion together a run game all by themselves against Miami's strengthened front. Remember, Matt Roth at OLB is a kitchen sink measure to stop the run, and an effective one at that. Forget about his pass rush and forget about his coverage. When it comes to setting the edge and stopping the run, he's as good as it gets as an OLB.

i can't argue with any of that. i just hope the run d transfers to the regular season. i have zero reasons to think it won't.

[ckparrothead]

I think the worst case scenario is Merling and Langford start to get overwhelmed in run defense when we get to the regular season game. But, if that ends up being the case, we still have Randy Starks sitting behind them and if there's one thing we know Randy can do, it is use his strength to stop the run.

And god help Brett Favre if they ever have a situation where the only thing keeping Matt Roth (with a full head of steam) from reaching the quarterback is either Dustin Keller or Leon Washington in the backfield. I know you don't have a high opinion of Roth on pass rush and really neither do I, but the one thing he's shown with consistency is the ability to bull rush anyone that gets in his way in the backfield once he gets some steam. As a 280 pounder, that should be the case...so it's nice to see that so far, it is.

Thomas Jones may be able to block him. He's a good blocker.