Commentary: CKParrothead Previews Fins vs Jets

[hooshoops]

Originally Posted by ckparrothead

I think the worst case scenario is Merling and Langford start to get overwhelmed in run defense when we get to the regular season game. But, if that ends up being the case, we still have Randy Starks sitting behind them and if there's one thing we know Randy can do, it is use his strength to stop the run.

And god help Brett Favre if they ever have a situation where the only thing keeping Matt Roth (with a full head of steam) from reaching the quarterback is either Dustin Keller or Leon Washington in the backfield. I know you don't have a high opinion of Roth on pass rush and really neither do I, but the one thing he's shown with consistency is the ability to bull rush anyone that gets in his way in the backfield once he gets some steam. As a 280 pounder, that should be the case...so it's nice to see that so far, it is.

Thomas Jones may be able to block him. He's a good blocker.

actually, against the saints early roth showed me a little more than just bullrush. i saw a little chop of the tackles arm to help him gain the edge. still, nothing near sudden or explosive.

i agree though he can bull an undersized guy into the backfield should he get the chance. i can see the jets trying to take advantage of it by having the te chip roth when he bullrushes and then rolling the te out into the flat and with kellers speed and atleticism what should be a 3 yard gain turns into a 20 yarder. keller in the open field will be dangerous.

[ckparrothead]

Originally Posted by Dolfan1000

The run D was one of the most impressive aspects of the preseason IMO. What a difference a year makes. CK, I am completely on board with your assessment of Roth, but come on, there is no way Pasqualoni isnt coming up with some sort of way to get Roth some help in coverage, either by taking him out of the game completely on obvious passing downs (third downs altogether, perhaps), or by coming up with something schematically. If they think they can go into this game with Matt covering Dustin Keller more than a handfull of times, it could get ugly. Now, with that said, this isnt Capers and Cameron we're talking about, so I am sure they will get creative with it.

Schemes only go so far. When you make the commitment to a guy as a starter, he WILL end up at some point matched onto a guy that the other side wants to get him matched up on. Pasqualoni can't make 2+2=5. He's not a miracle worker.

And all it takes is a small handful of times with the right matchup to make a really big play. Hell, all it can take is one time.

[ckparrothead]

Originally Posted by hooshoops

actually, against the saints early roth showed me a little more than just bullrush. i saw a little chop of the tackles arm to help him gain the edge. still, nothing near sudden or explosive.

i agree though he can bull an undersized guy into the backfield should he get the chance. i can see the jets trying to take advantage of it by having the te chip roth when he bullrushes and then rolling the te out into the flat and with kellers speed and atleticism what should be a 3 yard gain turns into a 20 yarder. keller in the open field will be dangerous.

That could be something they try, but I doubt Keller gets an effective chip on Roth in that case.

Even Dustin Keller's own coach, Joe Tiller, said that not too long ago, Dustin was a complete joke as a blocker...but now he's improved to something along the lines of "decent" or "solid" which in the pros, is back to being a joke IMO.

[hooshoops]

Originally Posted by ckparrothead

Schemes only go so far. When you make the commitment to a guy as a starter, he WILL end up at some point matched onto a guy that the other side wants to get him matched up on. Pasqualoni can't make 2+2=5.

And all it takes is a small handful of times with the right matchup to make a really big play. Hell, all it can take is one time.

so what do you do??? do you roll the safety into the center of the field or over the te deep to help roth and leave your corners pretty much in 1 on one coverage or do you help your corners with the safeties and allow the te to pretty much have free run in your deep middle.

my guess is we'll ask our most athletic ilb to drop back into the deep middle to help on the te in passing downs which limits your blitz potential up the middle but doesn't allow for as many deep middle and one on one looks in the secondary.

[Dolfan1000]

Absolutely, CK, no arguments there. Still, I would be very keen on putting Charlie Anderson in the game on passing downs. IMO he and Joey are our two best coverage OLBS, with both Quentin and Matt recently converting from defensive end.

I believe the Jets hope to put Keller in the slot quite a bit, and an important guy in these instances will be Jason Allen. IMO I like him covering the guy more than I do Andre Goodman or Will Allen, who are a little smaller in stature.

[hooshoops]

Originally Posted by ckparrothead

That could be something they try, but I doubt Keller gets an effective chip on Roth in that case.

Even Dustin Keller's own coach, Joe Tiller, said that not too long ago, Dustin was a complete joke as a blocker...but now he's improved to something along the lines of "decent" or "solid" which in the pros, is back to being a joke IMO.

so your thinking they'll pretty much go with a free release for keller and then have a rb try to pick up roth long enough for the ball to be out of favres hand. keller with a free release scares the tar out of me with how quick he can get vertical.

[ckparrothead]

Originally Posted by hooshoops

so what do you do??? do you roll the safety into the center of the field or over the te deep to help roth and leave your corners pretty much in 1 on one coverage or do you help your corners with the safeties and allow the te to pretty much have free run in your deep middle.

my guess is we'll ask our most athletic ilb to drop back into the deep middle to help on the te in passing downs which limits your blitz potential up the middle but doesn't allow for as many deep middle and one on one looks in the secondary.

You can do some things like that in order to limit the exposure, I'm just saying you can't eliminate it. One thing that can defeat those types of mismatches is obviously pass rush. Doesn't do much good to get Roth matched onto Keller finally, if when it happens Kendall Langford comes busting through the line and the play doesn't have time to develop.

Also, there is the odd chance that Keller runs a bad route or something, and Roth actually is able to stick to him. And, the similar off chance that Brett throws it poorly.

[ckparrothead]

Originally Posted by hooshoops

so your thinking they'll pretty much go with a free release for keller and then have a rb try to pick up roth long enough for the ball to be out of favres hand. keller with a free release scares the tar out of me with how quick he can get vertical.

Remember, Baker is their starter, and he's their overall better player. Safety help could keep Keller bottled up in some of those situations. My feeling is they'll be using Keller a lot as an H-Back, almost like a fullback, in 2-TE personnel groupings. But, you can't run very well when you do that (not that I think they could run very well even when they don't do that)...so the defense should be better prepared to keep an eye on Keller.

[hooshoops]

Originally Posted by ckparrothead

Remember, Baker is their starter, and he's their overall better player. Safety help could keep Keller bottled up in some of those situations. My feeling is they'll be using Keller a lot as an H-Back, almost like a fullback, in 2-TE personnel groupings. But, you can't run very well when you do that (not that I think they could run very well even when they don't do that)...so the defense should be better prepared to keep an eye on Keller.

good points. baker though i have no problem with asking someone to handle one on one. he's just not as much a threat vertically and in the open field but definitely the better all around te.

keller in the h back i didn't even think about. lot of options for them with that kid. a nice weapon for teams to have to account for. like you said though keller as a blocker in the running game in an h back set is pretty much useless.

[PHINANALYST]

I believe that the JETS have an slight edge with experience and a marginal edge with talent; but if the weather cooperates - heat, youth and desire may be enough to overcome the overall slight disadvantage we have.

What worries me most is if the JETS can effectively employ a spread offense to counter our 'beefy' front 7 -- if they do, they will likely win the game; as we don't yet have the experience (maybe not even the personnel) to adapt quickly enough.

[ckparrothead]

Originally Posted by hooshoops

good points. baker though i have no problem with asking someone to handle one on one. he's just not as much a threat vertically and in the open field but definitely the better all around te.

keller in the h back i didn't even think about. lot of options for them with that kid. a nice weapon for teams to have to account for. like you said though keller as a blocker in the running game in an h back set is pretty much useless.

And that's a big mill stone hanging around his neck as far as his overall use goes.

Bottom line is, you could put a WR in at H-Back or F-Back, and in the passing game he'd be an immense mismatch against a Matt Roth or Akin Ayodele in unfettered coverage. But, would that WR survive the kind of jam those bigger guys would put on him within 5 yards? Would the defense even treat him like an H-Back or an F-Back?

The Dolphins could very well jump to a 30 Stack defense (3-3-5 with Crocker and Bell as right and left safeties, Jason Allen as centerfielder) every time Dustin Keller is on the field in those sets. Would the Jets be able to counter that by running the ball on that undersized front?

Such is the danger with one-dimensional players...and it's the reason why, right now, Chris Baker is the more valuable player.

[hooshoops]

Originally Posted by ckparrothead

And that's a big mill stone hanging around his neck as far as his overall use goes.

Bottom line is, you could put a WR in at H-Back or F-Back, and in the passing game he'd be an immense mismatch against a Matt Roth or Akin Ayodele in unfettered coverage. But, would that WR survive the kind of jam those bigger guys would put on him within 5 yards? Would the defense even treat him like an H-Back or an F-Back?

The Dolphins could very well jump to a 30 Stack defense (3-3-5 with Crocker and Bell as right and left safeties, Jason Allen as centerfielder) every time Dustin Keller is on the field in those sets. Would the Jets be able to counter that by running the ball on that undersized front?

Such is the danger with one-dimensional players...and it's the reason why, right now, Chris Baker is the more valuable player.

i definitely think we're gonna see that 3-3-5 stack. in fact, i thought i saw a little sprinkle of it in the preseason where all 3 of bell, allen, and crocker were on the field at the same time and i think this is the perfect opponent to use it against. not the strongest running game as you've shown. no coincidence imo we saw it a little bit in the preseason. coaches wanted to see how the 3 safeties would look on film especially in coverage.

perfect team to use it against

[ckparrothead]

Originally Posted by PHINANALYST

I believe that the JETS have an slight edge with experience and a marginal edge with talent; but if the weather cooperates - heat, youth and desire may be enough to overcome the overall slight disadvantage we have.

What worries me most is if the JETS can effectively employ a spread offense to counter our 'beefy' front 7 -- if they do, they will likely win the game; as we don't yet have the experience (maybe not even the personnel) to adapt quickly enough.

I guarantee they'll try to do just that. But, having David Clowney out with a broken collar bone hurts, as he was looking like potentially their best WR not named Jericho or Laveraneous.

Chansi Stuckey I like, but he's yet to catch a pass in the NFL. Brad Smith is better, but you need more than three to run a spread like you're talking about.

[ckparrothead]

Originally Posted by hooshoops

i definitely think we're gonna see that 3-3-5 stack. in fact, i thought i saw a little sprinkle of it in the preseason where all 3 of bell, allen, and crocker were on the field at the same time and i think this is the perfect opponent to use it against. not the strongest running game as you've shown. no coincidence imo we saw it a little bit in the preseason. coaches wanted to see how the 3 safeties would look on film especially in coverage.

perfect team to use it against

So I'm told, the 3-3-5 stack has been a staple of Bill Parcells and Bill Belichick teams forever.