Fiedler-Feeley air speed...the dreaded OUT PATTERN (warning: in-depth)

[Oboy]

Originally Posted by 13isgr81

Anyone else notice the irony of calling someone else's analysis "ubsurd" when the word is in fact "absurd"?

I liked the thread and found it interesting. For those of us who don't hate Feidler its nice to see physical evidence that Feeley actually does throw outs with more velocity.

I found that funny too, but was giving him the benefit of the doubt... maybe it was just a typo.

CK, great work, but as been said... you need a hobby buddy! -actually don't. This is great work and I really enjoy reading it!

THANKS

[rkdinorl]

Originally Posted by PhinstiGator

Well done CK...

To be more exact about the NTSC video broadcast signal...It's actually 29.97 frames per second made up of two interlaced fields per frame (59.94 fields per second).

Now you need to find the hall of fame QB MPH range (upper and lower) using Marino and Bob Griese as a standard reference.

Speaking of standard references. Maybe a radar gun should be put on these guys at 10,20,30,40,50 yards at the combine. You start getting these numbers as data and you won't need to pay fat, lazy scouts to write down (nice arm, throws the out route well) on a piece of paper.

Still, the article only compares two throws. You simply can't do that. You need an average and we all know the average of Feeley is going to be higher than the average of Fiedler. So what's the point.

Maybe the point should be to bring a radar gun to the combine.

[Ozzy]

Originally Posted by rkdinorl

Solving the velocity mathmatically is ubsurd. You only compared two throws and Dolphin fans don't need the Pythagorean Theorem to know that Jay Fiedler floats his passes to the sidelines and all over the field for that fact. It's those 1 in 10 that he gets a good throw on that DW keeps him in the game for. Are you going to tell us the Doppler effect used with a radar gun now. Great dedication. Good Math. Didn't need proving. Fiedlers floaters have been getting Dolphins receivers and big drives killed for years now.

What's even more Ubsurd (lol) is that you don't even know which passes he analyzed! And it's very obvious you can't look at a pass from Jay Fiedler objectively.

But I do have a suggestion! Instead of putting down a thread like this, try making one of your own.....

[rkdinorl]

Originally Posted by Oboy

I found that funny too, but was giving him the benefit of the doubt... maybe it was just a typo.

CK, great work, but as been said... you need a hobby buddy! -actually don't. This is great work and I really enjoy reading it!

THANKS

Sorry, I really suck at spelling. I did say that the dedication was unparalelled (spelling). I just pointed out the fact that you can't compare two throws without all the same factors. You need better controls and more results to give an explanation. It was great work. People that think to do things like this are the people we need in this country let alone on this site. Just pointing out some discrepancies.

Sorry.

[rkdinorl]

Originally Posted by Ozzy

What's even more Ubsurd (lol) is that you don't even know which passes he analyzed! And it's very obvious you can't look at a pass from Jay Fiedler objectively.

But I do have a suggestion! Instead of putting down a thread like this, try making one of your own.....

First, I do know which throws he was talking about and I'm not trying to put the thread down. I really applaud his ingenuity and welcome it openly and think that he would be an asset to the Dolphins scouting department. Just pointing out what doesn't need to be pointed out. Whether Fieldler or Feeley starts it won't because of the velocity of which the ball comes out of their hands. Most people agree that Feeley has a stronger arm.

[Ozzy]

Originally Posted by rkdinorl

Still, the article only compares two throws. You simply can't do that. You need an average and we all know the average of Feeley is going to be higher than the average of Fiedler. So what's the point.

Maybe the point should be to bring a radar gun to the combine.

The thread speaks of one throw! One type of throw! The very throw that, when intercepted, is usually run back for a TD! It's the one throw that a good percentage of Qb's have trouble throwing. AND most of all, it is a throw that has been discussed many many times on this message board, so you see, a lot of us feel it was an excellent subject!!

[rkdinorl]

Originally Posted by Ozzy

The thread speaks of one throw! One type of throw! The very throw that, when intercepted, is usually run back for a TD! It's the one throw that a good percentage of Qb's have trouble throwing. AND most of all, it is a throw that has been discussed many many times on this message board, so you see, a lot of us feel it was an excellent subject!!

I wasn't talking about two types of throws. I was talking about two individual throws of one type. You know that type that, when intercepted.... AGAIN, I too liked the article and applaud the effort.

[Mile High Fin]

Here's, hopefully, a different perspective on the AJ vs. Jay comparisons.

So far, their stats have been nearly identical.

Based on this, most people assume this means they're equivalent QBs...

However, my perspective is otherwise...
AJ has very little NFL playing experience, and is new to the Fins system/players.
Jay has been an NFL starter and has been with the Fins system/players for 4+ years now.

If AJ is matching Jay's stats, even with his inexperience, then AJ is the better QB long-term.
I think what we're seeing is Jay's BEST stats, and AJ's ROOKIE/NEWBIE stats.

Jay's stats/ability have leveled off -- he's not getting any better.
AJ's stats/ability ARE JUST BEGINNING......He'll only get BETTER from here.....as he gets more experience. :eek:

Thus, I conclude that equivalent stats = AJ is the better QB.

[LOCAL SCUM!]

That's not a bad point..If Feeley can come in here for only a couple of months and play as good as Fiedler has played in his 4years +....Then we still have the best to see from AJ....Imagine how he'd be after a year or so of playing here....HOpefully he'll really step it up when he's comfy...

[Ozzy]

Originally Posted by rkdinorl

First, I do know which throws he was talking about and I'm not trying to put the thread down. I really applaud his ingenuity and welcome it openly and think that he would be an asset to the Doplhins scouting department. Just pointing out what doesn't need to be pointed out. Whether Fieldler or Feeley starts it won't because of the velocity of which the ball comes out of their hands. Most people agree that Feeley has a stronger arm.

OK fine, you were not putting down the thread. My appologies for saying that.

But you could never be so wrong. The stronger arm has nothing to do with that pass. It's about the throws release, and velocity coming off the Qb's hand. This is the one pass that the Dolphins use a couple of times a game, and it can be an easy Int. returned for a TD.

BTW I'm willing to bet that if both Qb's line up and throw a pass downfield as far as they can, that Fiedler's throw is no more than 5-8 yards shorter, if that! But it won't get there nearly as fast.

[rkdinorl]

Originally Posted by Ozzy

OK fine, you were not putting down the thread. My appologies for saying that.

But you could never be so wrong. The stronger arm has nothing to do with that pass. It's about the throws release, and velocity coming off the Qb's hand. This is the one pass that the Dolphins use a couple of times a game, and it can be an easy Int. returned for a TD.

BTW I'm willing to bet that if both Qb's line up and throw a pass downfield as far as they can, that Fiedler's throw is no more than 5-8 yards shorter, if that! But it won't get there nearly as fast.

I also apologize for saying stronger arm when stronger arm is generally associated with "can throw farther" After just seeing limited action from Feeley most people can agree that Feeley throws with more velocity, zip, etc.

For this whole time of being cast off as a bad speller and post-hater I've just been trying to say that this analysis, while in-depth, sound mathmatically, and showing of great dedication, doesn't prove much. Feeley throws it faster. I don't need to look at my DVR for a half and hour to know that, and I don't need to relive my calculus class days with vector theories.

Not only does Feeley have this going for him but he stays in the pocket longer which gives him an extra second to find an open receiver. He's more accurate on long throws, etc. The only things Jay has going for him is a winning record(not playoffs), he's smart, which makes him a good practice player, and he's DW's boy.

[NaboCane]

GREAT thread CK. Thanks!

[Mile High Fin]

Thanks, now hopefully Wanstedt sees it this way!!!

[Dolphins12thMan]

Originally Posted by Mile High Fin

Here's, hopefully, a different perspective on the AJ vs. Jay comparisons.

So far, their stats have been nearly identical.

Based on this, most people assume this means they're equivalent QBs...

However, my perspective is otherwise...
AJ has very little NFL playing experience, and is new to the Fins system/players.
Jay has been an NFL starter and has been with the Fins system/players for 4+ years now.

If AJ is matching Jay's stats, even with his inexperience, then AJ is the better QB long-term.
I think what we're seeing is Jay's BEST stats, and AJ's ROOKIE/NEWBIE stats.

Jay's stats/ability have leveled off -- he's not getting any better.
AJ's stats/ability ARE JUST BEGINNING......He'll only get BETTER from here.....as he gets more experience. :eek:

Thus, I conclude that equivalent stats = AJ is the better QB.

Kind of reminds me of Ray Lucas when he first came in....we all know what happened there!

[ckparrothead]

Thanks to all you guys who support the thread.

Interesting that you guys mention that I need a girlfriend. The reason I was up late at night is because my girlfriend attends UF and every summer I get accustomed to her being with me every night. She just left back for school last week and came down this weekend, and as corny as this sounds, after she leaves I still have trouble sleeping after she leaves to go back up to school because she's not there with me going to sleep too. Sorry.

What else can I do late at night, not able to sleep, with a DVR handy that has the Phins-Bucs game recorded on it?

Someone brought up in another thread these two throws in particular...saying they noticed that Chambers caught it more in stride while Booker had to fall to the ground for it so maybe it was because the pass took longer to get there.

I told you the distances. Fiedler's ball traveled 86 feet. Feeley's traveled 80 feet. I can verify Fiedler's distance to within less than 3 feet and Feeley's to within about 5 feet. If you don't believe my distances fine, but where do you think they come up with those cutesy CGI clips on tennis showing exactly where on the ground the ball hit the line (whether it was out or not)? Its a bunch of nerds like me delineating distances using the angles and straight lines, and using known measurements available to come up with computer programs to measure this stuff.

Could Fiedler throw the ball faster on other out routes? Perhaps. I'm just saying on both of these compared plays, both QBs had about as much motivation as you could get to whip that ball as fast as possible, and from the looks of it, Feeley whipped it 10 mph faster than Fiedler did. Does that mean all Feeley passes go 55 mph and all Fiedler passes go 45 mph? No. In fact, if you read through the thread I point out that on most throws of any distance, Feeley's ball actually travels more like 50 mph on average (yes I calculated enough throws to average...probably about 6 or 7 Feeley throws altogther, 54 mph for one, 55 mph for another, three passes that were around 49 to 50 mph, and a 45 mph ball) but that average is useless. If Feeley threw the ball 200 feet at 45 mph, he'd have a better arm than Mike Vick. Wind resistance is causing the ball to lose speed as it goes. So yes, Fiedler gets a small break because his throw was about 2 yards longer than Feeley's...but proportionally, it took 1/3rd of a second longer than Feeley's throw so if Fiedler really DID throw it the same as Feeley, the ball would have to be traveling at a mere 12 mph for those last two yards...and that is just ridiculous.

Is it 100 percent perfect and technically sound? No. And I wish someone WOULD take radar guns to some of these passes, ESPECIALLY quick out routes. But in the meantime this is as good as we've got.

There's no point averaging the speed of a bunch of throws when those throws are all different kinds of throws. There IS such thing as touch. In order to average Jay's "out" throw vs AJ's "out" throw I would need to find a bunch of quick 5 yard outs thrown by both QBs where both QBs had incentive to whip it as fast as they could, and both QBs would have to be throwing about the same distance.

There are a lot of Fiedler supporters out there though, including ones who, to this day, insist that Fiedler's arm is good and AJ's is not necessarily better. To them, I say take what I've posted as you will, but I do find it to be strong evidence.