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CRAZYDOLFAN305
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This is truly hard to call, both the public and sharps have wagered equally. I have conflicting algoyrthms for this game, as you can tell I have NE to cover the spread, but it's only game 2 of 4 for myself.
Because lines have moved in one steady direction, betting action is, understandably, tighten up with less than two hours before kickoff. At the present time, 49 percent of the wagering population likes Houston with a 6-point cushion. But, NFL betting experts disagree, as only 40 percent of them are willing to make that claim.
On the flip side, 51 percent of the public likes New England to cover. The only problem is that, as we saw from the aforementioned "wagers by betting lines" numbers, those percentages could be misleading.
However, if you ask the betting NFL experts, 61 percent of them will tell you that Tom Brady & Co. should be able to cover tonight, even at -6. From a pure matchup standpoint, numbers tell a bit of a different story, as it would appear that the Texans are indeed the smarter bet at +6.
In the seven statistical categories used to compare these teams, Houston excelled in four versus the Pats' three.
The Texans will have an edge in: Yards allowed, time of possession, kicking and penalties. On the other hand, the Pats hold an advantage in: Points per game, yards gained and Red Zone accuracy.
Houston's latest ATS betting trends going into tonight's game look like this:
Texans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Texans are 9-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Texans are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Texans are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 14.
Texans are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
And finally, here's New England's most recent ATS trends:
Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Monday games.
Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Patriots are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.
Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
The Patriots on the verge on winning its 13th straight game in the month of December, something that would tie the 1968-72 Dallas Cowboys for the second-best December run in history. Generally I look for historical trends that are near the end, for example I took the Chargers ML yesterday, because they hadn't won in Pittsburgh in 14 straight regular seasons. So, the fact that the Patriots have won 13 straight December games, if I didn't have Houston on a lost scenario, and I was just picking for a single wager, the math would dictate to take Texans. Now, I took the Patriots at -2.5. (Brought One Point Early in week.)
The market buy for this game is volatile, for a single game wager in my opinion, because it can truly go either way. But do the Patritots win 14 consecutive December game? If the answer to that question is no, than make a play Houston ML+200
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