Don't take my word for it this is from the CBO. The most impartial arbiter of cost in our government.
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"10-year budget window by grouping the elements of the legislation into broad categories
and assessing the rate at which the budgetary impact of each of those broad categories is
likely to increase over time. The categories are as follows:
• The gross cost of the coverage expansions, consisting of exchange subsidies, the net
costs of expanded eligibility for Medicaid, and tax credits for employers: Those
provisions have an estimated cost of $199 billion in 2019, and that cost is growing
at about 8 percent per year toward the end of the 10-year budget window. As a
rough approximation, CBO assumes continued growth at about that rate during the
following decade.
• The excise tax on high-premium insurance plans: JCT estimates that the provision
would generate about $35 billion in additional revenues in 2019 and expects that
receipts would grow by roughly 10 percent to 15 percent per year in the following
decade.
• Other taxes and other effects of coverage provisions on revenues: Increased
revenues from those provisions are estimated to total $74 billion in 2019 and are
growing at about 7 percent per year toward the end of the budget window. As a
rough approximation, CBO assumes continued growth at about that rate during the
following decade.
• Changes to the Medicare program and changes to Medicaid and CHIP other than
those associated directly with expanded insurance coverage: Savings from those
provisions are estimated to total $106 billion in 2019, and CBO expects that, in
combination, they would increase by nearly 15 percent per year in the next decade.
All told, the legislation incorporating the manager’s amendment would reduce the federal
deficit by $16 billion in 2019, CBO and JCT estimate. In the decade after 2019, the gross
cost of the coverage expansion would probably exceed 1 percent of gross domestic
product (GDP), but the added revenues and cost savings would probably be greater.
Consequently, CBO expects that the legislation, if enacted, would reduce federal budget
deficits over the ensuing decade relative to those projected under"
So in Summary
Expansion costs 199 billion
Excise Tax -35 billion
Other effects -74 billion
Changes to Medicare -106 billion
A reduction of 16 billion for 2019.




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