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Greyboy
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The reverse of what happened last year on monday night in NY in Moore's first start.
This game "could" be close, no doubt about it. But at the same time there is a better chance the Dolphins will beat the Jets convincingly than losing the game.
Have you taken a look at Philbin's fantastic resume after a Bye, combined with his superb offensive performance in GB when playing a defense the 2nd time ? A Combined 11-1 with higher point totals and offensive output ..
and teams do very poorly when going into a BYE (as the jets are this week), record is 4-16-1 ATS in the last 21 NFL games (dolphins did not play well at all vs the Rams, at home, going "into" the BYE, as one of many examples....and that was a PUSH with the Rams outgaining Miami 450-200 TY). The Rams had 10 days rest while Miami was going into a Bye, at home, off a road travel game the previous week (just as the jets are). Miami did not cover the spread
Teams are just not playing well in this spot. Look at the Bengals-Steelers game last Sunday night. The Steelers were very shorthanded with all their injuries, not playing well at all this season, on the road, but they handled the Bengals and played a lot better than Cincy. It was a division game too, it was a big home game for Cincy with what supposed to be an emotional game for them, in primetime, against a huge division rival. But the Bengals had a measly 100 yards passing, got crushed in time-of-possession, under 4 yards per carry, and their D got run over all night.
For whatever reason, teams are playing very poorly in the spot the jets are playing in this week. And the jets spent a lot of emotion and energy last week in new england. Michael Lombardi on NFL Network said this week that he'd be very surprised if the Jets can carry that energy and emotion to this weeks miami game, and said they won;t be able to, and I agree with him. While Miami is super energized with the rest, are a team that matches up very well with the jets, a very physical team and outphysical the Jets most of the time miami plays them (just what teams that are emotionally spent from the previous week don't want to face), and have the revenge-factor on their side
Moreover, there is a strong "RLM" for this game (reverse line movement). The Vegas odds-makers like Miami a lot in this game, if you know how to read the lines. They are setting up and goading "joe public" to bet on the jets with the RLM
Does all that guarantee anything ? No,.. nothing is guaranteed. There's no guarantee you or I will be here tomorrow. lol. But these are very strong indicators, and if someone played these spots with the same framework, and was a very responsible & smart gambler with good money management, betting no more than 5% of their bankroll (term used for funds deposited into an account used for sportsgambling) per wager, they'd be sitting pretty.
A lot of sports gambling, and being very successful with it, is betting on trends and "spots". Take out the team logos and player matchups and all those things. Just look at the trends and spots. Go with the percentages. I can't tell you how much money I've made over the last 2 years by betting against the Boston Celtics ATS whenever they played a road game, having to travel, after playing the night before. On the back end of 2 games in 2 nights. They have been absolutely horrible on back-to-backs on the road. They were just piss poor in those "spots" and mailed it in. I made a killing in the 2010-2011 season doing it , and then last year for 11-2012 they were something like 1-8 ATS in their first 9 road back-to-backs again. It's all about "spots"
And as a Miami fan, for this game Sunday, you have to feel very good in this spot
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