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Election day predictions
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"Politics is the Art of Looking for Trouble, Finding it Everywhere, Diagnosing it Incorrectly, and Applying the Wrong Remedies"
Stereotypes are bad enough, but stereotypes which have 0 basis are just silly. Here's a nice chart you may want to check out.
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Originally Posted by PhinsFreak
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Speaking of stereotypes why do all Republicans have a first cousin named Work. And whats so difficult about them getting off of work.
Considering that Romney needs disaffected long-term unemployed to switch to him for victory, this doesn't really make sense.
Whatever happens tomorrow, it's been interesting to see in this cycle how polls have joined analysts, newspapers, network news and cable news as "biased" sources of information. An inevitable turn of events, if regrettable. Now virtually nothing links the two different bubbles each side has created for itself.
Elections are decisive, though. So if nothing else it should be fascinating to watch the losing half of the country have reality intrude on the decisive wins they're predicting. I wouldn't want to guess how many times the word "fraud" will appear on RedState if Romney loses or DailyKos if Obama wins. But it'll be a lot.
Last edited by TheWalrus; 11-05-2012 at 08:58 PM.
I'm actually more intrigued to see how accurate the polls end up being, than who actually becomes president.
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Originally Posted by TheWalrus
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Great post
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Originally Posted by TheWalrus
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Though I can definitely see why the Republicans want to maintain a show of strength since they are banking on major turnouts from their base to flip some of these prediction polls. Signs of weakness now may put their voters in apathy and they may stay home. The same can be said for the independent who are leaning romney.
Then again cracks are starting to appear with all the blame being thrown on Sandy killing momentum
It's both sides, though. "Bull****" is inevitably called no matter who wins since "the voters repudiated us" doesn't tend to play very well on TV.
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Originally Posted by trojanma
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What's particularly interesting though is that this is the first presidential election where things like "house lean" and poll bias have openly been discussed. None of this got much if any play four years ago (it was a frequent topic for Nate Silver but I didn't see it much beyond that) but now it's everywhere, the result being a series of polls each side trusts in exclusion of the others and a parsing of the politics of likely voter models -- one favoring the Democrats and the other the Republicans -- neither of which can be concurrently right.
I mean, it's one thing to know you're going to get beat and say the other side cheated. It's another to actually think you're going to win and have the rug totally pulled out from under you by reality. But that's what's going to happen tomorrow for a whole bunch of people. Either a serious (conservative) guy like George Will is right in saying Romney is getting like 320+ electoral votes, or a serious (liberal) guy like Joe Trippi is right in saying Obama's looking at 303 or perhaps even 332 electoral votes. One of them is going to look like an idiot come Wednesday morning. Perhaps even both.
I think the OP's head is going to explode if Obama wins tomorrow. Legit blood coming out of his ears...
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If I could take your pain and frame it, and hang it on my wall,
maybe you would never have to hurt again...
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