Election day predictions

[TheWalrus]

Great post
Though I can definitely see why the Republicans want to maintain a show of strength since they are banking on major turnouts from their base to flip some of these prediction polls. Signs of weakness now may put their voters in apathy and they may stay home. The same can be said for the independent who are leaning romney.

Then again cracks are starting to appear with all the blame being thrown on Sandy killing momentum

It's both sides, though. "Bull****" is inevitably called no matter who wins since "the voters repudiated us" doesn't tend to play very well on TV.

What's particularly interesting though is that this is the first presidential election where things like "house lean" and poll bias have openly been discussed. None of this got much if any play four years ago (it was a frequent topic for Nate Silver but I didn't see it much beyond that) but now it's everywhere, the result being a series of polls each side trusts in exclusion of the others and a parsing of the politics of likely voter models -- one favoring the Democrats and the other the Republicans -- neither of which can be concurrently right.

I mean, it's one thing to know you're going to get beat and say the other side cheated. It's another to actually think you're going to win and have the rug totally pulled out from under you by reality. But that's what's going to happen tomorrow for a whole bunch of people. Either a serious (conservative) guy like George Will is right in saying Romney is getting like 320+ electoral votes, or a serious (liberal) guy like Joe Trippi is right in saying Obama's looking at 303 or perhaps even 332 electoral votes. One of them is going to look like an idiot come Wednesday morning. Perhaps even both.

[phinfan3411]

I think Obama will win and get around 300 electoral votes, i think the popular vote will be closer, but what the hell does that matter?

[Locke]

I predict epic butt hurt from whichever side loses. Fox News will be good for some laughs for the next few weeks if Obama wins. Also, some of our posters here might literally lose their minds...

[Vaark]

Matters less what any of us think: legendary Nate Silver, who rarely (but granted, occasionally) has to eat crow on his dynamic statistical probability-based predictions, now puts an Obama win at 90.9% (FWIW down from about 92% last night ). Link to his blog follows. Google him if not familiar with him, the respect his studies engender and the fear and spin the opposing parties use in an attempt to discredit his work.


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edit: oops: I now see that Nate's already been previously referenced here.

[MadDog 88]

The popular vote may be close but I see Obama winning electoral college fairly easy.

[Ilovemyfins4eva]

I predict epic butt hurt from whichever side loses. Fox News will be good for some laughs for the next few weeks if Obama wins. Also, some of our posters here might literally lose their minds...

it works both ways. fox news deff will be entertaining to listen to if obama wins, but u can say that exact same thing about msnbc vice versa. either way it should be entertaining.

[Spesh]

it works both ways. fox news deff will be entertaining to listen to if obama wins, but u can say that exact same thing about msnbc vice versa. either way it should be entertaining.

If Romney wins the first thing im doing is throwing on MSNBC. I dont want to miss Chris Matthews leaping out an open window.

[JackFinfan]

If Romney wins the first thing im doing is throwing on MSNBC. I dont want to miss Chris Matthews leaping out an open window.

Same here, I'm watching CNN until the election is called. Then I'm switching to MSNBC if Romney wins, or Fox News if Obama wins.

[JackFinfan]

If Obama ends up winnning, I might take off tomorrow just to listen to conservative radio all day.

[Locke]

it works both ways. fox news deff will be entertaining to listen to if obama wins, but u can say that exact same thing about msnbc vice versa. either way it should be entertaining.

Never seen MSNBC, wouldn't know what to look for. I've seen several clips of Fox News, and I know how retard-heavy that channel can get...