Eat Your Crow Here

[Buddy]

It all depends on the economy in 2016. This recovery sucks at best. The unemployment rate just went back up, personal wealth is at all time lows and credit debt at all time highs. Foreclosers are still rampant and more people are on welfare than ever. Fiscal and monetary polices are horrible and will continue to be. And let's not forget our debt and the Euro/debt crisis too. I don't forsee a robost recovery anytime soon. If anything it will get worse. Which IMO could bring back the failure that is the GOP. I agree that demographics are changing and the GOP will tweak some of their stances. They'll just put up a better salesman for their crap policies. Let's not forget the Dems were in this exact same position in 2004. They looked just as pitiful as the GOP today. But 4 more years of a crap economy and crap president turned things around fast. My point is that things could easily end up for the worse the next for years and the cycle of exchanging tweedle dee for tweedle dum is a strong possibility.

I believe that you are right about the economy not recovering well, in fact, I see a lot of signs pointing to a full-blown depression coming. We need to cut the spending drastically - about 20 to 30%-and flatten the tax rates while eliminating deductions and especially loopholes. It doesn't matter what the tax rate is on corporations and rich people if they don't pay it. That is what people don't understand...these people have teams of very smart lawyers and such planning years in advance to hide money and circumvent taxes. It is smart business and they just work within the circumstances they are given. Nonetheless, the Republicans should have an opportunity in 2016 to take the presidency and the Congress in 2014 if the economy doesn't get any better or gets worse as I suspect. With that opportunity, they need to all but forget social issues as they will not matter at all if the country collapses. Worrying about social issues now is like icing a cake without even mixing or cooking the batter.

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[trojanma]

I believe that you are right about the economy not recovering well, in fact, I see a lot of signs pointing to a full-blown depression coming. We need to cut the spending drastically - about 20 to 30%-and flatten the tax rates while eliminating deductions and especially loopholes. It doesn't matter what the tax rate is on corporations and rich people if they don't pay it. That is what people don't understand...these people have teams of very smart lawyers and such planning years in advance to hide money and circumvent taxes. It is smart business and they just work within the circumstances they are given. Nonetheless, the Republicans should have an opportunity in 2016 to take the presidency and the Congress in 2014 if the economy doesn't get any better or gets worse as I suspect. With that opportunity, they need to all but forget social issues as they will not matter at all if the country collapses. Worrying about social issues now is like icing a cake without even mixing or cooking the batter.

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Not sure what is the basis of this overly gloomy picture? Wishful thinking?

US GDP growth has consistently outperformed Europe and UK over the summer.
Curious since the UK instituted a huge austerity package as a way out.

I don't see how you figure that we MUST cut spending.
If there has been anything born out of this worldwide recession it is that austerity is a crappy way to get yourself out of a recession.

Not too mention that short term austerity is not a really effective way to change the US's debt curves. The answer is long term entitlement reform.

I do not disagree that general tax reform is something that would be a net positive for the country. I don't see what it has to do with avoiding a depression.

---------- Post added at 04:38 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:37 PM ----------

Of course an exterior cataclysm such as a Euro meltdown or some succession crisis in China could have dire effects on the US.

[Dogbone34]

all demographics ultimately fall in line with the most popular candidate

politics is high school

[Locke]

all demographics ultimately fall in line with the most popular candidate

politics is high school

Except for the whole thing of that not being true in the slightest...

[Dogbone34]

Except for the whole thing of that not being true in the slightest...

the popular candidate doesn't need specific demo majorities to win the overall majority

you just need to be cool and know how to sell it

[Locke]

the popular candidate doesn't need specific demo majorities to win the overall majority

you just need to be cool and know how to sell it

Maybe the candidate is popular because he is playing into what the demographics want? Women and Latinos/as didn't start to care about women's rights and immigration because Obama did, it was vice-versa...

[Buddy]

Not sure what is the basis of this overly gloomy picture? Wishful thinking?

US GDP growth has consistently outperformed Europe and UK over the summer.
Curious since the UK instituted a huge austerity package as a way out.

I don't see how you figure that we MUST cut spending.
If there has been anything born out of this worldwide recession it is that austerity is a crappy way to get yourself out of a recession.

Not too mention that short term austerity is not a really effective way to change the US's debt curves. The answer is long term entitlement reform.

I do not disagree that general tax reform is something that would be a net positive for the country. I don't see what it has to do with avoiding a depression.

---------- Post added at 04:38 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:37 PM ----------

Of course an exterior cataclysm such as a Euro meltdown or some succession crisis in China could have dire effects on the US.

I have said before that the debt and devalued dollar will crush our economy. We can't keep spending like we are and tax our way back to solvency. If we bring in more tax dollars, we will just spend more. You fix spending first then worry about increasing income, not the other way around. Austerity at the federal level should be moot because that should be the state's responsibility but that is another discussion. People will just never learn that the quickest way out of a recession is to reduce taxes and keep the government's hands off the economy. However, people want to see someone "do something" about their situation which only prompts knee-jerk, emotional reactions and decisions as well as dragging out the recession because the economy is suppressed. Booms and busts are natural parts of the economy and government intervention generally screws that cycle up making it worse on the people.

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[Valandui]

Except for the whole thing of that not being true in the slightest...

It is to an extent. Most people don't want to be associated with a loser and won't vote for one. The primaries are a good example. Most registered Republicans I talked to, however small of a sample size it is, told me that they thought Ron Paul had the best ideas but didn't want to vote for him because he "couldn't win". On the other hand, none of them really liked Romney at all but voted for him because he "could beat Obama". Clearly, that wasn't the case, but that's the mindset most people seem to have when it comes to this.

---------- Post added at 04:37 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:37 PM ----------

Maybe the candidate is popular because he is playing into what the demographics want? Women and Latinos/as didn't start to care about women's rights and immigration because Obama did, it was vice-versa...

This is also true.

[irish fin fan]

I believe that you are right about the economy not recovering well, in fact, I see a lot of signs pointing to a full-blown depression coming. We need to cut the spending drastically - about 20 to 30%-and flatten the tax rates while eliminating deductions and especially loopholes. It doesn't matter what the tax rate is on corporations and rich people if they don't pay it. That is what people don't understand...these people have teams of very smart lawyers and such planning years in advance to hide money and circumvent taxes. It is smart business and they just work within the circumstances they are given. Nonetheless, the Republicans should have an opportunity in 2016 to take the presidency and the Congress in 2014 if the economy doesn't get any better or gets worse as I suspect. With that opportunity, they need to all but forget social issues as they will not matter at all if the country collapses. Worrying about social issues now is like icing a cake without even mixing or cooking the batter.

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Sorry, you're 4 years too late with that prediction.

[Buddy]

Sorry, you're 4 years too late with that prediction.

You might be right, in four years we may be speaking Chinese.

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